So the Iranians informed Turkyië, UAE, and other countries of the attack, 72 hours in advance. Turkyië, and others, invariably notified the US and Israel in turn. Couple that with the flight time of the drones (3-4 hours), Israel and friends had plenty of time to spool up their radars, missiles, and battle plans. Despite all that, four sites (military, not civilian) were hit, without casualties. Not to mention that the sites hit were involved in Israel's attack on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus. That tells me: the drones and cruise missiles were pawns, and the ballistic missiles were the true weapons of choice. Israel's battle plans and systems are crap against second tier ballistic missiles. See also Ukraine.
China would be better off blockading Taiwan by sea and air to restore Taiwan. No reason to kill their own people. Many people I've had dinner with in Taipei and Kaohsiung believe reuniting with China proper is inevitable, and several say desirable.
To the contrary, the lessons learned from the Iranian retaliatory strike against Israel last weekend is that ballistic missile and hypersonics can penetrate Israeli A.D. particularly when camouflaged in a swarm of cheap drones. A couple rounds of these kind of attacks will deplete Israel and US supplied A.D. forces, just as Ukrainian forces have been depleted the same way by the Russians. Especially so since Israel and Taiwan are very tiny landmasses. Overnight Israel has lost the threat of nuclear annihilation and Iran has gained a Mutually Assured Destruction capability. This is a real game changer. It's just gonna take a little while for this baleful reality to sink in. Just as it's taken a little while for the West to realize that their Project Ukraine is being annihilated before their very eyes by the Russians and they are unstoppable hypersonics.
I'm sick of our non-stop wars and the trillions of dollars we pour into our military that goes light years beyond what's needed to protect our shores at home. The rest of it is pure hegemony. Let China rule the world if that's its intentions. It will be their downfall like ours. I oppose our proxy wars in Ukraine and Israel and oppose the proxy war over Taiwan that we are working so hard to provoke. They are foreign countries that have no impact on our daily lives. The U.S. backed the corrupt Chiang Kai-shek in a civil war against Mao. As Mao consolidated his victory the Nationalists fled to Formosa. Before and during the civil war, Formosa was a part of China. If Taiwan wants to remain independent (It did not become a democracy until 1996) it will have to do the diplomacy or fighting for itself.
With China's industrial capability, in such a scenario we are talking about thousands of drones and hundreds of ballistic missiles, even with the best coordination and assistance, the situation is extremely difficult and the impact on Taiwan's economy will likely be catastrophic in the long term. It's the kind of threat that can't be tackled without strikes on mainland China. I don't know if this is a step that the West is willing to take or pay
The Iranian attack was carefully pre-announced, calibrated and targeted to make a point and test Israeli defenses, while not doing enough damage to start a major war, which the Islamic Republic clearly doesn't want.
The primary lesson I think we can take is that if the Iranian attack had been several times as heavy, Israel might have really suffered some serious damage. You can be sure that the People's Republic has taken note of that and will scale their plans accordingly.
Most of the drones seem to have been shot down by aircraft, so did not deplete the anti-ballistic missile defenses. There are numerous IDF videos showing this.
Iron Dome is for short range threats only, under 40km I believe, and doesn't seem useful for Taiwan. They need a longer range defense like David's Sling, with 70 - 300km range.
The IDF denied a C-130 was hit. Even if it was, this would have been pure luck as the Iranians seemed unable to target that precisely.
This is a primer for the requirement for directed energy weapons for air defense. The low cost per kill combined with unlimited (as long as the weapon is powered and cooled) engagements. Systems like Iron Beam and the Navy’s weapon systems could be manufactured by the Taiwanese to fill the gap.
If an attack was imminent, a spoiling attack against the Chinese launchers would cripple the rocket forces.
Stephen, is it true that Iran's attack cost around USD50m, and Israel's defense around USD1.3billion? Is there some way to cheapen the cost of defense?
Among all the MSM tropes, I haven't seen answers to some basic questions about the Iranian response to Israel's curiously timed consular attack (on what was technically Iranian territory).
Iran invented chess a while ago, and their actions tend to be strategically coherent.
A calculated provocation must have been planned by Netanyahu to provoke an Iranian response, after Iran had signalled and moved very clearly to suggest they (like Hezbollah) would prefer for various reasons to avoid escalation.
They could not do nothing, and a symbolic reaction, carefully calibrated and announced well in advance, on military infrastructure linked to the Damascus attack was not remotely surprising.
But what I miss in the MSM is any attempt to carefully read the details of the attack.
The airfield in the Negev whose defence was penetrated, according to some reports by hypersonic missiles, is the main base for Israels's most advanced planes, including those involved in the Damascus attack.
I've read that missiles also hit the Northern intelligence hub in the Golan, presumably responsible for framing the attack.
As well as satisfying the Iranian public's and Arab neighbours' (and their 'streets' or public's) need for an appropriate reaction, the Iranian response invited by Netanyahu also seems to indicate that, like the Israelis in their previous sophisticated targetings, the Iranians were making a strategic statement more than a 'failed attack'.
"We know how and where our enemy operates, and we know how to hit them harder if that in turn becomes appropriate."
With Biden refusing American assistance in any further Israeli attack, while guaranteeing defence (except perhaps against hypersonic attacks without warning) that leaves the beleaguered Netanyahu in quite a tough place.
"Your move", now says Iran - and maybe like a chessplayer they're thinking a few moves ahead.
Stephen - many thanks once more for your technical analysis... but I still don't find your dismissal of the Red Peril in Eastern Europe consistent with your concerns about the Yellow Peril and the Middle East.
The Americans will in all likelihood be militarily humiliated by China later this decade. The sensible action for the US at this time is to stabilize the relationship, accept that Taiwan will be lost, and get to work reindustrializing the US.
The impact of Chinese high end industry will be like a tsunami hitting a cardboard outhouse. The tsunami will start smashing us toward the end of this year and will be wave after wave, relentless, destroying industry after industry. We have no time to fantasize about defending Taiwan.
So the Iranians informed Turkyië, UAE, and other countries of the attack, 72 hours in advance. Turkyië, and others, invariably notified the US and Israel in turn. Couple that with the flight time of the drones (3-4 hours), Israel and friends had plenty of time to spool up their radars, missiles, and battle plans. Despite all that, four sites (military, not civilian) were hit, without casualties. Not to mention that the sites hit were involved in Israel's attack on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus. That tells me: the drones and cruise missiles were pawns, and the ballistic missiles were the true weapons of choice. Israel's battle plans and systems are crap against second tier ballistic missiles. See also Ukraine.
China would be better off blockading Taiwan by sea and air to restore Taiwan. No reason to kill their own people. Many people I've had dinner with in Taipei and Kaohsiung believe reuniting with China proper is inevitable, and several say desirable.
To the contrary, the lessons learned from the Iranian retaliatory strike against Israel last weekend is that ballistic missile and hypersonics can penetrate Israeli A.D. particularly when camouflaged in a swarm of cheap drones. A couple rounds of these kind of attacks will deplete Israel and US supplied A.D. forces, just as Ukrainian forces have been depleted the same way by the Russians. Especially so since Israel and Taiwan are very tiny landmasses. Overnight Israel has lost the threat of nuclear annihilation and Iran has gained a Mutually Assured Destruction capability. This is a real game changer. It's just gonna take a little while for this baleful reality to sink in. Just as it's taken a little while for the West to realize that their Project Ukraine is being annihilated before their very eyes by the Russians and they are unstoppable hypersonics.
Why does America - sorry, I mean China - want to control everything in the Caribbean - sorry, I mean South China Sea?
Does not matter. You kill them when they approach your airspace. At 150 km radar won't see them either.
Perhaps the US should worry about its own domestic issues, such as:
The biggest deficit in a peace time.
Overblown government budget that keeps the economy alive using debt.
olf infrastructure
dying manufacturing sector
declining life expectancy (only Western country in the world that manages to accomplish that)
a divided nation
a rotten health care system
increased poverty and a shrinking middle class
a broken education system
unrestrained military industrial complex
senators and congressmen profiting from stocks in various companies
an unleashed secret service apparatus worse than the KGB.
Perhaps it's time to leave Taiwan be before it ends like Ukraine....just perhaps.
I'm sick of our non-stop wars and the trillions of dollars we pour into our military that goes light years beyond what's needed to protect our shores at home. The rest of it is pure hegemony. Let China rule the world if that's its intentions. It will be their downfall like ours. I oppose our proxy wars in Ukraine and Israel and oppose the proxy war over Taiwan that we are working so hard to provoke. They are foreign countries that have no impact on our daily lives. The U.S. backed the corrupt Chiang Kai-shek in a civil war against Mao. As Mao consolidated his victory the Nationalists fled to Formosa. Before and during the civil war, Formosa was a part of China. If Taiwan wants to remain independent (It did not become a democracy until 1996) it will have to do the diplomacy or fighting for itself.
With China's industrial capability, in such a scenario we are talking about thousands of drones and hundreds of ballistic missiles, even with the best coordination and assistance, the situation is extremely difficult and the impact on Taiwan's economy will likely be catastrophic in the long term. It's the kind of threat that can't be tackled without strikes on mainland China. I don't know if this is a step that the West is willing to take or pay
The Iranian attack was carefully pre-announced, calibrated and targeted to make a point and test Israeli defenses, while not doing enough damage to start a major war, which the Islamic Republic clearly doesn't want.
The primary lesson I think we can take is that if the Iranian attack had been several times as heavy, Israel might have really suffered some serious damage. You can be sure that the People's Republic has taken note of that and will scale their plans accordingly.
Most of the drones seem to have been shot down by aircraft, so did not deplete the anti-ballistic missile defenses. There are numerous IDF videos showing this.
Iron Dome is for short range threats only, under 40km I believe, and doesn't seem useful for Taiwan. They need a longer range defense like David's Sling, with 70 - 300km range.
The IDF denied a C-130 was hit. Even if it was, this would have been pure luck as the Iranians seemed unable to target that precisely.
This is a primer for the requirement for directed energy weapons for air defense. The low cost per kill combined with unlimited (as long as the weapon is powered and cooled) engagements. Systems like Iron Beam and the Navy’s weapon systems could be manufactured by the Taiwanese to fill the gap.
If an attack was imminent, a spoiling attack against the Chinese launchers would cripple the rocket forces.
A reasonable and timely analysis. It would be nice if someone in power listened. Thanks.
Stephen, is it true that Iran's attack cost around USD50m, and Israel's defense around USD1.3billion? Is there some way to cheapen the cost of defense?
Among all the MSM tropes, I haven't seen answers to some basic questions about the Iranian response to Israel's curiously timed consular attack (on what was technically Iranian territory).
Iran invented chess a while ago, and their actions tend to be strategically coherent.
A calculated provocation must have been planned by Netanyahu to provoke an Iranian response, after Iran had signalled and moved very clearly to suggest they (like Hezbollah) would prefer for various reasons to avoid escalation.
They could not do nothing, and a symbolic reaction, carefully calibrated and announced well in advance, on military infrastructure linked to the Damascus attack was not remotely surprising.
But what I miss in the MSM is any attempt to carefully read the details of the attack.
The airfield in the Negev whose defence was penetrated, according to some reports by hypersonic missiles, is the main base for Israels's most advanced planes, including those involved in the Damascus attack.
I've read that missiles also hit the Northern intelligence hub in the Golan, presumably responsible for framing the attack.
As well as satisfying the Iranian public's and Arab neighbours' (and their 'streets' or public's) need for an appropriate reaction, the Iranian response invited by Netanyahu also seems to indicate that, like the Israelis in their previous sophisticated targetings, the Iranians were making a strategic statement more than a 'failed attack'.
"We know how and where our enemy operates, and we know how to hit them harder if that in turn becomes appropriate."
With Biden refusing American assistance in any further Israeli attack, while guaranteeing defence (except perhaps against hypersonic attacks without warning) that leaves the beleaguered Netanyahu in quite a tough place.
"Your move", now says Iran - and maybe like a chessplayer they're thinking a few moves ahead.
Stephen - many thanks once more for your technical analysis... but I still don't find your dismissal of the Red Peril in Eastern Europe consistent with your concerns about the Yellow Peril and the Middle East.
In any coming war, he who runs out of air defense first, loses.
Given the Chinese proclivity towards ramping up the production of anything very very fast, Taiwan does not have much of a chance.
The Americans will in all likelihood be militarily humiliated by China later this decade. The sensible action for the US at this time is to stabilize the relationship, accept that Taiwan will be lost, and get to work reindustrializing the US.
The impact of Chinese high end industry will be like a tsunami hitting a cardboard outhouse. The tsunami will start smashing us toward the end of this year and will be wave after wave, relentless, destroying industry after industry. We have no time to fantasize about defending Taiwan.