19 Comments

Yes, the killing of General Suleimani by the US Trump administration in January 2020 damaged the Iranian coalition badly. His replacemant Gen. Qaani was not as good. Despite the surprise (Hamas did not inform Iran of the attack) had Suleimani been still alive and kicking he would have orderdd Hezbollah to fully attack Israel at its worst moment since its inception inj 1948. A ground attack from the north and south plus a combined attack with 3-4 hundred Iranian missile and scores of Iraqi missiles and drones could have caused unimaginable damage. The Galilee could have been conquered. Countless Israeli dead citizens. Total havoc. Israel would have survived, but the damage and decline... And Iran would have been unscathed and better off than ever.

Expand full comment

For example, I cannot support two myths: The first is "America is ruled by presidents elected by the people" and the second is "Hamas is an integral part of the Arab resistance." In both cases , we are dealing with an incomprehensible cynicism for an ordinary person .

Expand full comment

My analysis is not pro-or-anti-Assad. I am trying to analyze his military and other mistakes. Amatzia

Expand full comment

Very good analysis, but how come, that no pundits mention the killing of solaimani, and therefore the weakening of the shia-crescent?

Expand full comment

good point

but then Biden reversed most of the effect by supporting Iran

Expand full comment

Biden didn't wake up solaimani from the dead.

Expand full comment

…fucking everything, but mainly - putin

Expand full comment

please don't use inappropriate language

this is the only warning you will get

Expand full comment

…people like you ban books

Expand full comment
3dEdited

…huh ?! …who the fuck say it’s inappropriate ? …it’s the same language you speak, who are you to tell me which words to use ?

Expand full comment

After WW1 and the end of the Ottoman Empire, Britain and France carved up the remnants.

Britain put in place Sunni minority rule in majority Shia Iraq, and France Alawaite rule in majority Sunni Syria.

...because the nominal rulers would then be dependent on their colonial 'protectors' to remain in power, and Britain and France would remain in effective control through dependent client regimes.

After WW2, old colonial and neocolonial models broke down, and with the departure of Britain and France the minority clients were left exposed to dissident majorities, which they escalated repression to control.

Meanwhile Uncle Sam had after Suez moved in with a different model of patronage, hoping to just replace Britain and France as the effective ruling power in the region.

The rest is sad, bloody history.

Expand full comment
3dEdited

Focuses only on the granular aspects of the final days. What is missing is the background...Assad was suckered by US into turning his back on Iran and Russia (lifting of over a decade of sanctions plus offer of economic aid). Both Iran and Russia saw this end coming and Russia made deals with the Turks and HTS (note how they were NOT attacked at their dip compound nor at their bases.

Assad couldn't pay his army (US held all the oil and grain), didn't try to bolster it, refused sound advice/assistance from Russia and Iran ; can't save a man who wants to drown. Assad was out of his depth and totally blew it... The smart thig to do was to let the Turks and US inherit the mess and cut bait and run. The collapse is just fait accompli..to say the Russians and Iranians were caught by surprise is dishonest...they knew it and debated what to about it a month ago (at the time preparations were being made by HTS/US/IS/Turkey to sweep the board).

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-uae-discussed-lifting-assad-sanctions-exchange-break-with-iran-sources-say-2024-12-02/

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-12-02/exclusive-us-uae-discussed-lifting-assad-sanctions-in-exchange-for-break-with-iran-sources-say

https://johnhelmer.org/ "Military sources in Moscow have told a tale of President Vladimir Putin’s decision not to defend the Syrian Arab Army and the Damascus government of Bashar al-Assad. That decision, the sources claim, was taken at least two weeks before the Turkish break-out from Idlib began on November 27, and was conveyed to Assad personally by December 6."

Furthermore the Russians have been plying Algeria and Libya for basing possibilities, apparently with some degree of promise forthcoming.

Expand full comment

I’m so over the anti Assad propaganda. It’s gross. Assad and Syria are victims. If I want to read I read the US or UK fake news.

Expand full comment

I suppose supporting a murderous, rotten regime is your cup of tea.

Expand full comment
3dEdited

...vs supporting AQ/ISIS-type jihadists? Really? There is a $10 million dollar bounty on al-Julani offered by...the FBI! Did you feel the same way about those "moderate rebels" back in the early days, or those who we backed to depose Qaddafi? Looks like both countries would be far better off if left alone! Congrats in changing the face of the region to a horror show..with Europe thrown in at no extra charge for "civilizational-shaking changes". A few hundred dead and several thousand imprisoned to maintain status quo in the last enclave for multi-faiths in the region under Assad vs tens of thousands killed an millions displaced and impoverished under the "righteous" struggle of the jihadists? I don't see where Assad is the greater evil here!

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/4/who-is-abu-mohamad-al-julani-the-leader-of-hayat-tahrir-al-sham-in-syria

HTS also rules with a heavy hand and does not tolerate dissent, according to activists, news reports and local monitors.

Independent journalism organisation Syria Direct reports that HTS is behind the disappearances of activists and has shot live ammunition at protesters who accuse the group of denying services to communities that oppose it.

During his first televised interview in 2014, he told Al Jazeera that Syria should be ruled under his group’s interpretation of “Islamic law” and the country’s minorities, such as Christians and Alawis would not be accommodated.

I think I've heard enough ..good bye!

Expand full comment

People are cheering for the head choppers. The brainwashing done on them is amazing. Likely Assad imprisoned terrorists working with or affiliated with the head choppers. I support that 100%.

Expand full comment

I don’t support Saudi, UAE or Qatar. Brutal monarchies.

Expand full comment

Very interesting how the House of Islam follows the same pattern of the divided house of Islam as we see in another failed muslim country, the war torn, destroyed, and failed Islamic state of Sudan.

The Muslim vs. Muslim wars in Somalia, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Yemen, Libya, Syria and Iran are all part of the gift package (Genesis12:3) that God delivers to all His and Israel's enemies.

Syria 🇸🇾 goes from bad to worse in preparation for Ezekiel 39.

Expand full comment

Great guest article!

Expand full comment
Error