Stephen, there is a long list of people in the US who are openly or somewhat less openly calling for murder, assassination, liquidation, removal of President Trump.
Many if them public figures, some writing on Substack. Like Timothy Snider.
It is important to call them out. American citizens will vote and decide who is going to lead US. All American public figures, intellectuals should grow up, recognize hysteria, refuse violence.
I don't agree. Two things make this an amateur attempt:
1. Shooter used a semiautomatic (AR?). Not as accurate as single-shot bolt action. A sniper does not need multiple rounds toward target.
2. Head shot. Notwithstanding your statement, head shots have a low-probability of a hit. Upper body (chest to neck) with appropriate caliber to penetrate is much better. Head shots are for the movies.
By definite amateurs. Lucky shots. Example: secret service agent (professional) shot an assailant last week multiple times in the face--assailant survived. Another SS agent also fired multiple times, and did not hit the assailant.
Further: The fatal shot into Bobby Kennedy was fired at a distance of ONE INCH.
"Unfounded speculation"...what are you talking about? And then you "speculate" that he had no scope? WTF?
Every thing I said was in response to Mr. Bryen's statements. Semiautomatic rifle is now confirmed, it was a 5.56 mm AR. Head shot? That was the reason that Mr. Bryen used to assert "professional" assassin. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Seems like it's a deranged young person. I don't know why the first assumption would be "professional hit". You pretty much have to be some kind of nutjob to do this. The shooter was so close that a) he was guaranteed to be killed or captured and b) the secret service did a poor job securing the area.
I agree that it's speculation to claim that a 20-year-old who uses a no-scope AR-15 to assassinate the former president in a manner where he will certainly be caught, is deranged - that's speculative, but it's reasonably speculative.
But it doesn't require much conspiracy theorizing hours after the incident.
It just requires having known people who are 20, crazy, and understanding the general profile of people who attempt stuff like this. E.g. it's not coherent politics, it's just someone who has a stupid life and feels like doing something like this will give themselves meaning. We still don't have the details to say much, though. We're *all* speculating.
My disappointment is that much of your writing is very sober minded and calm analysis, and the immediate thoughts you are putting out post this assassination attempt are just substandard and a little nutty.
You are entitled to your opinion but I disagree. It is not "nutty" to think that much more could be involved, although we don't know (and may never know). For sure there was a very serious security failure. Beyond that, we have no real track on the shooter who was killed. Maybe the FBI investigation will find out more, but I would not reach any conclusion yet.
I agree, and I think it's important for everyone to recognize how much we don't know. I do know some people, some who might be loved ones related to me, who believe every incident in the world that happens is an "op" and that no historical event has ever happened in a way that wasn't a false flag.
I think we have to guard against "conspiracy brain". Maybe there is more to it. Conspiracies absolutely happen. But it's also possible that this loser did this by himself and more is to be blamed on institutional ineptness by the secret service and local police. And ultimately on a very broken, unstable political culture in the United States.
(Yeah Timothy Snider is a really cool guy. Until 2022 I was so naive as to truly think historians are reliable, sober and trustworthy especially in times of war. Well, turned out I was very very wrong... and the incompetence in all this is staggering. Ugly even, when scholarship is abused as propaganda.)
Snider is an intellectual, and what is normal, or at least acceptable in academy, to have a very personal, biased, fact proof opinion or theory, really to be an eccentric, becomes dangerous when weaponized in politics and war.
Snider is an English speaking, Americanin version of Bernard Henry Levi, a very loud and aggressive intellectual, who absolutely takes side in a war.
In order to understand, the world, any conflict, one has to be either extremely wise, or extremely intelligent, or just honest, and diplomatic.
Choosing one side is emotionally satisfying, and if one chooses pro-US side, also lucrative, but is not helping in understanding, and resolving the conflict.
If one takes Snider as presenting one of the sides, half the truth, one needs the other half to be able to see, understand anything.
In the US politics Snider was used as one of the voices to paint a target on Trump's head.
Biden has retreated in his rhetorical aggression towards Trump, Snider hasn't.
Left has always had such figures, whose words are like final military court sentences, leading to extrajudicial liquidations, e.g. leading millions to death in Stalin's purges.
Noam Chomsky became a household name in 1967 due to an essay on the same subject.
Like BHL as you correctly point out, Snider is - to use a modern term - complete fake - I prefer "incompetent and opportunistic".
As Snider´s scholarship goes which actually lends him the credentials to gain legitimacy in the first place, it is mediocre.
His most popular book "Bloodlands" is bold at best, inadequate realistically, not "fit" as serious scholarship as judged by other serious scholars when under scrutiny.
Considering the countless historians it is an oddity that Snider of all people is this much known.
So it has to do with tropes outside what gives him his credentials. So he is "respected" for the wrong reasons. (He must be an excellent and charming networker and back-stabber.)
It´s not to be regarded as praise for an academic to be close associate of an Anne Applebaum. Another one of those clones (whose number btw is limited. Why else would it be their names being recycled over and over again?)
Last point: Those have nothing to do with a genuine left. The left is a labour movement going back to the 1860s demanding same civil and human rights for all human beings regardless of class, race, sex (to quote the UN Declaration from 1948).
All the others have usurped it. So I would neither associate Gulags with the left.
But I assume that is another topic for another day ;-)
To be honest, I thought an assassination attempt on Trump was possible, but I didn't believe it. It seemed to me an exaggeration. Now it's clear how bad things are for America.
Your report at very short notice with obvious limited information was, with hindsight, admirable and pretty accurate. Have you any opinion why a basic bullet proof bullet/bomb screen was not provided by the Secret Service as a bare minimum ?
I have watched a number of Trump rallies and I can say he leaves himself exposed to gunfire or other attacks. I think Trump depends on (1) perimeter protection and (2) a very friendly crowd that would trample on a threat. The problem this time is the shots came from outside the perimeter and the security setup was deficient.
The entire establishment has been persecuting Trump since 2015. I'm old and I've never seen anything like it before. Russiagate was a lie; two impeachments; multiple lawsuits; state courts trying to remove him from the ballot; The CIA and FBI were involved in the Russiagate origins; the FBI falsified a FISA warrant to investigate Trump; The news media has skewered him non-stop since 2016; He has expressed an intent to end the Ukraine Fiasco to the horror of Washington and EU allies; Obviously, Zelensky would not want him President; It would not surprise me at all if the CIA had a hand in this. The establishment has done everything they could to derail him and so far have not succeeded.
Although I believe it has never been used in an assassination I am always fearful of the possible use of an RPG or even conceiled IED (now used in West Bank to a depth of more than 1.5m !) One sees their use & proliferation by the many thousands in Gaza and South Lebanon etc all supplied by Iran now in a coalition with US enemies Russia, North Korea and PRC.
Are the Secret Services working to deal with these latest real & accute threats ?
When Biden said he wants to stay, he really meant it, huh? Just his luck the shooter missed from 130m (per geolocators on telegram). Dude probably 'got the message' from the magazine covers showing Trump with a Hitler moustache and such. Hard to walk back such a hard propaganda stance, once it has visible consequences.
It's not going to matter who they sub in for Biden and Harris at the DNC now.
Oner wonders if Western Secret Serervices apart from regular exercices actually ever spare the time to study previous successful & unsuccessful assasinations? Apart from the well known ones may I remind you of others like : The two Gandhi, The Rabin assasinations. The nearly sucessful attrempt on the Pole in Rome. The attack of Queen Elizabeth along the Mall after the Trooping of thed Colour, the attack of her daughter Anne's car along the same Mall which just failed by the same "luck" Trump had !
Also several items thrown at and hitting King Charles from the far too close crowd and many similar incidents against PM Starmer , new Reform party leader Nigel Farrage and even President Macron mingling in French crowds and serveral recent successful attempts throughout South America
Are these examples not enough for them to dawn upon the various Secret Services that they cannot simply carry on "as before"? Are they still not aware of the risk of smuggled (Diplomatic bags) grenades or even readily available RPG's and even IED's?
It is blatantly observed whether "by accident or design" NO mobile bullet/bomb proof screen was prodided to protect President Trumpo in Butler PA !! ? If this "omission" is not enough to "raise eyebrows" worldwide I am at Dutchman !
Missing a headshot from 150 yards is certainly not the sign of a professional hit job. Nor even of someone with basic proficiency at any recreational rifle range.
They probably believed all the hype about ARs being just point and you'll hit your target. Also, the dude probably watched too much TV and played too many video games and thought it was like that in real life.
Snipers even miss. very occasionally. Remember the lucky escapes of President De Gaulle! This guy was not a professional sniper but obviously very familiar and even pretty competent. After all he hit his intended target despite all and a" indulgent" living "in the past" US Secret Service. Unless there is a very extensive review of the planning, actions & intelligence of the US Secret Service (and lessons learnt immediately !) these attempts in US will surely continue considering the selection of arms readily available there or provided by its known or unknown enemies
"rose tinted glasses" not supplied due to high costs in USA and a sign of prevalent low educational level there. Let's hope the French 14 July Bastille Day passes off without incident and the Paris (France) Olympic Games later this month. The problem is the huge potential 5th column there, throughout EU with its open borders and differrent ideologies , culture & values
References are being made to a "professional hit". But the so-called "professionals" are usually very tidy about tying up their loose ends, so that it can't be traced back to the VIPs who actually ordered the deed. Bumping that up with what we might speculate about who has powerful enough motive to hire professionals to do this, my money is on the Ukrainians.
Although I have my suspicions it's most likely the counter sniper was a decent guy doing his duty. If there was a deep state thumb on the scales for the defense, Mayorkas denying Trump's detail additional resources is probably the extent of it.
The evidence implies that this was a planned operation. Did you watch the video of the overwatch sniper that took out the shooter on the roof? It appears that he was watching him before the shooting started, hesitated and then took the shot. There is also the red-headed guy who was pointing up and screaming for the cops to do something about the guy with the rifle on the roof well before he was in position, lined up and started firing.
Two plus two doesn't always equal four but the evidence. . .
One thing I would like to know from people who attended the rally is whether there were surveillance drones in the area. It beggars belief that such an attack can occur in this day and age. Pattern recognition software would have spotted the shooter instantly.
As an "outsider" can I pose this question? If the assassination had been successful woiuld the result be a Civil War in the USA? Would this even be sufficient catalyst to inspire same ? I feel it easily could have with terrible consequences noit only for USA ! Quite scarey thought & prospect (CNN speak) ?
There are people everywhere trying to hurt Trump. Vile.
Stephen, there is a long list of people in the US who are openly or somewhat less openly calling for murder, assassination, liquidation, removal of President Trump.
Many if them public figures, some writing on Substack. Like Timothy Snider.
It is important to call them out. American citizens will vote and decide who is going to lead US. All American public figures, intellectuals should grow up, recognize hysteria, refuse violence.
I agree. However, my sense is that this was a professional hit.
I don't agree. Two things make this an amateur attempt:
1. Shooter used a semiautomatic (AR?). Not as accurate as single-shot bolt action. A sniper does not need multiple rounds toward target.
2. Head shot. Notwithstanding your statement, head shots have a low-probability of a hit. Upper body (chest to neck) with appropriate caliber to penetrate is much better. Head shots are for the movies.
Both Kennedys were killed by head shots.
By definite amateurs. Lucky shots. Example: secret service agent (professional) shot an assailant last week multiple times in the face--assailant survived. Another SS agent also fired multiple times, and did not hit the assailant.
Further: The fatal shot into Bobby Kennedy was fired at a distance of ONE INCH.
Sounds like this would-be assassin didn't even have a scope. I don't understand why you are doing so much unfounded speculation here.
"Unfounded speculation"...what are you talking about? And then you "speculate" that he had no scope? WTF?
Every thing I said was in response to Mr. Bryen's statements. Semiautomatic rifle is now confirmed, it was a 5.56 mm AR. Head shot? That was the reason that Mr. Bryen used to assert "professional" assassin. Nothing could be further from the truth.
I think you are right.
Seems like it's a deranged young person. I don't know why the first assumption would be "professional hit". You pretty much have to be some kind of nutjob to do this. The shooter was so close that a) he was guaranteed to be killed or captured and b) the secret service did a poor job securing the area.
why do you think deranged? what's your evidence? Speculation?
I agree that it's speculation to claim that a 20-year-old who uses a no-scope AR-15 to assassinate the former president in a manner where he will certainly be caught, is deranged - that's speculative, but it's reasonably speculative.
But it doesn't require much conspiracy theorizing hours after the incident.
It just requires having known people who are 20, crazy, and understanding the general profile of people who attempt stuff like this. E.g. it's not coherent politics, it's just someone who has a stupid life and feels like doing something like this will give themselves meaning. We still don't have the details to say much, though. We're *all* speculating.
My disappointment is that much of your writing is very sober minded and calm analysis, and the immediate thoughts you are putting out post this assassination attempt are just substandard and a little nutty.
You are entitled to your opinion but I disagree. It is not "nutty" to think that much more could be involved, although we don't know (and may never know). For sure there was a very serious security failure. Beyond that, we have no real track on the shooter who was killed. Maybe the FBI investigation will find out more, but I would not reach any conclusion yet.
I agree, and I think it's important for everyone to recognize how much we don't know. I do know some people, some who might be loved ones related to me, who believe every incident in the world that happens is an "op" and that no historical event has ever happened in a way that wasn't a false flag.
I think we have to guard against "conspiracy brain". Maybe there is more to it. Conspiracies absolutely happen. But it's also possible that this loser did this by himself and more is to be blamed on institutional ineptness by the secret service and local police. And ultimately on a very broken, unstable political culture in the United States.
(Yeah Timothy Snider is a really cool guy. Until 2022 I was so naive as to truly think historians are reliable, sober and trustworthy especially in times of war. Well, turned out I was very very wrong... and the incompetence in all this is staggering. Ugly even, when scholarship is abused as propaganda.)
AG
Snider is an intellectual, and what is normal, or at least acceptable in academy, to have a very personal, biased, fact proof opinion or theory, really to be an eccentric, becomes dangerous when weaponized in politics and war.
Snider is an English speaking, Americanin version of Bernard Henry Levi, a very loud and aggressive intellectual, who absolutely takes side in a war.
In order to understand, the world, any conflict, one has to be either extremely wise, or extremely intelligent, or just honest, and diplomatic.
Choosing one side is emotionally satisfying, and if one chooses pro-US side, also lucrative, but is not helping in understanding, and resolving the conflict.
If one takes Snider as presenting one of the sides, half the truth, one needs the other half to be able to see, understand anything.
In the US politics Snider was used as one of the voices to paint a target on Trump's head.
Biden has retreated in his rhetorical aggression towards Trump, Snider hasn't.
Left has always had such figures, whose words are like final military court sentences, leading to extrajudicial liquidations, e.g. leading millions to death in Stalin's purges.
korkyrian
I am aware of this unfortunate character of personel. As such Snider to me is no intellectual in the serious sense of the word.
On that issue Edward Said e.g. had an entire show on BBC 4 / published as a book also, see:
"The Reith Lectures | Edward Said: Representations of the Intellectual (1993)"
http://palestine.mei.columbia.edu/said/edward-said-lectures
Noam Chomsky became a household name in 1967 due to an essay on the same subject.
Like BHL as you correctly point out, Snider is - to use a modern term - complete fake - I prefer "incompetent and opportunistic".
As Snider´s scholarship goes which actually lends him the credentials to gain legitimacy in the first place, it is mediocre.
His most popular book "Bloodlands" is bold at best, inadequate realistically, not "fit" as serious scholarship as judged by other serious scholars when under scrutiny.
Considering the countless historians it is an oddity that Snider of all people is this much known.
So it has to do with tropes outside what gives him his credentials. So he is "respected" for the wrong reasons. (He must be an excellent and charming networker and back-stabber.)
It´s not to be regarded as praise for an academic to be close associate of an Anne Applebaum. Another one of those clones (whose number btw is limited. Why else would it be their names being recycled over and over again?)
Last point: Those have nothing to do with a genuine left. The left is a labour movement going back to the 1860s demanding same civil and human rights for all human beings regardless of class, race, sex (to quote the UN Declaration from 1948).
All the others have usurped it. So I would neither associate Gulags with the left.
But I assume that is another topic for another day ;-)
To be honest, I thought an assassination attempt on Trump was possible, but I didn't believe it. It seemed to me an exaggeration. Now it's clear how bad things are for America.
Very very bad.
Your report at very short notice with obvious limited information was, with hindsight, admirable and pretty accurate. Have you any opinion why a basic bullet proof bullet/bomb screen was not provided by the Secret Service as a bare minimum ?
I have watched a number of Trump rallies and I can say he leaves himself exposed to gunfire or other attacks. I think Trump depends on (1) perimeter protection and (2) a very friendly crowd that would trample on a threat. The problem this time is the shots came from outside the perimeter and the security setup was deficient.
The entire establishment has been persecuting Trump since 2015. I'm old and I've never seen anything like it before. Russiagate was a lie; two impeachments; multiple lawsuits; state courts trying to remove him from the ballot; The CIA and FBI were involved in the Russiagate origins; the FBI falsified a FISA warrant to investigate Trump; The news media has skewered him non-stop since 2016; He has expressed an intent to end the Ukraine Fiasco to the horror of Washington and EU allies; Obviously, Zelensky would not want him President; It would not surprise me at all if the CIA had a hand in this. The establishment has done everything they could to derail him and so far have not succeeded.
Appreciate you covering this Stephen.
It was providential that Trump was not killed. Will they try again? One way or another.
Although I believe it has never been used in an assassination I am always fearful of the possible use of an RPG or even conceiled IED (now used in West Bank to a depth of more than 1.5m !) One sees their use & proliferation by the many thousands in Gaza and South Lebanon etc all supplied by Iran now in a coalition with US enemies Russia, North Korea and PRC.
Are the Secret Services working to deal with these latest real & accute threats ?
When Biden said he wants to stay, he really meant it, huh? Just his luck the shooter missed from 130m (per geolocators on telegram). Dude probably 'got the message' from the magazine covers showing Trump with a Hitler moustache and such. Hard to walk back such a hard propaganda stance, once it has visible consequences.
It's not going to matter who they sub in for Biden and Harris at the DNC now.
I guess that's one way to get to get people to stop talking about Biden's senile dementia. Seems a bit extreme, just saying.
Anyway, start liking it. The only thing that surprises me is that this wasn't tried long ago.
Oner wonders if Western Secret Serervices apart from regular exercices actually ever spare the time to study previous successful & unsuccessful assasinations? Apart from the well known ones may I remind you of others like : The two Gandhi, The Rabin assasinations. The nearly sucessful attrempt on the Pole in Rome. The attack of Queen Elizabeth along the Mall after the Trooping of thed Colour, the attack of her daughter Anne's car along the same Mall which just failed by the same "luck" Trump had !
Also several items thrown at and hitting King Charles from the far too close crowd and many similar incidents against PM Starmer , new Reform party leader Nigel Farrage and even President Macron mingling in French crowds and serveral recent successful attempts throughout South America
Are these examples not enough for them to dawn upon the various Secret Services that they cannot simply carry on "as before"? Are they still not aware of the risk of smuggled (Diplomatic bags) grenades or even readily available RPG's and even IED's?
It is blatantly observed whether "by accident or design" NO mobile bullet/bomb proof screen was prodided to protect President Trumpo in Butler PA !! ? If this "omission" is not enough to "raise eyebrows" worldwide I am at Dutchman !
Missing a headshot from 150 yards is certainly not the sign of a professional hit job. Nor even of someone with basic proficiency at any recreational rifle range.
They probably believed all the hype about ARs being just point and you'll hit your target. Also, the dude probably watched too much TV and played too many video games and thought it was like that in real life.
In short, never buy a rifle designed after 1898...
Snipers even miss. very occasionally. Remember the lucky escapes of President De Gaulle! This guy was not a professional sniper but obviously very familiar and even pretty competent. After all he hit his intended target despite all and a" indulgent" living "in the past" US Secret Service. Unless there is a very extensive review of the planning, actions & intelligence of the US Secret Service (and lessons learnt immediately !) these attempts in US will surely continue considering the selection of arms readily available there or provided by its known or unknown enemies
This guy would have had a much better chance with a simple bolt action rifle and a good scope rather than an AR.
Whew!
The SS is probably sweeping as we speak.
Steven,
If Trump has not moved his head in the half second bullet travelled
he would have been dead
in coma, transported to hospital, reanimated, dead.
like Kennedy
And it is not Trump Americans,
it is you
Trump is just staying in front of you
A shooter could not have got a shot in front of Trump. From the sides, it would go through his brain.
We heard the pop pop pop and Trump touched his ear and fell behind the podium. We saw the massive crowd behind him pressed in close to each other.
Logically, if a bullet grazed Trump's ear, it would have hit someone in the crowd standing up behind him. That didn't happen, so there was no bullet!
Wrong…
Eyewitness GOP Senate candidate David McCormick: One person wounded, Trump lucky to be alive
Pennsylvania Republican Senate candidate David McCormick told Fox News he was in the front row when seven to eight "shots" rang out at Trump's rally.
"The crowd just sort of went to the ground and the Secret Service came and very quickly tackled the president," McCormick said.
He said it was unclear from which direction the shots came.
McCormick said someone behind him in the bleachers was "definitely wounded."
"There was a lot of blood and the police came in and helped that carry that person out of the stands so they can get the care they needed."
McCormick said he did not know if others were wounded.
Asked if Trump is lucky to be alive right now, McCormick said, "I think so."
"rose tinted glasses" not supplied due to high costs in USA and a sign of prevalent low educational level there. Let's hope the French 14 July Bastille Day passes off without incident and the Paris (France) Olympic Games later this month. The problem is the huge potential 5th column there, throughout EU with its open borders and differrent ideologies , culture & values
The liars on CNN are pretending they are surprised
References are being made to a "professional hit". But the so-called "professionals" are usually very tidy about tying up their loose ends, so that it can't be traced back to the VIPs who actually ordered the deed. Bumping that up with what we might speculate about who has powerful enough motive to hire professionals to do this, my money is on the Ukrainians.
depends if the shooter was himself professional or trained by professionals.
Looked to me like that 'loose end' got tied into a pretty dead knot to me. Did I miss something?
Oddly the only truly competent action by the Secret Service was to kill the shooter almost immediately.
Even evil has competent shooters to do the clean up work.
Although I have my suspicions it's most likely the counter sniper was a decent guy doing his duty. If there was a deep state thumb on the scales for the defense, Mayorkas denying Trump's detail additional resources is probably the extent of it.
The evidence implies that this was a planned operation. Did you watch the video of the overwatch sniper that took out the shooter on the roof? It appears that he was watching him before the shooting started, hesitated and then took the shot. There is also the red-headed guy who was pointing up and screaming for the cops to do something about the guy with the rifle on the roof well before he was in position, lined up and started firing.
Two plus two doesn't always equal four but the evidence. . .
And in the meantime, Biden has set it up with his "put him in the crosshairs" comment. Coincidence? I don't think so.
One thing I would like to know from people who attended the rally is whether there were surveillance drones in the area. It beggars belief that such an attack can occur in this day and age. Pattern recognition software would have spotted the shooter instantly.
As an "outsider" can I pose this question? If the assassination had been successful woiuld the result be a Civil War in the USA? Would this even be sufficient catalyst to inspire same ? I feel it easily could have with terrible consequences noit only for USA ! Quite scarey thought & prospect (CNN speak) ?
A good post on the Trump complex by former British ambassador, Craig Murray:
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2024/07/assassination-and-trumps-mentality/