Thank you for the article. A not-so-small issue regarding Russian interest in Odessa, which you apparently do not think is significant, is that leaving Odessa to Ukraine gives the post-war Ukraine access to the Black Sea and the ever-present threat of sea-drones and threats to Russian shipping. I don't think Russia will allow that. I know NATO already has access to the Black Sea but I don't think the countries involved such as Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey are so rabidly anti-Russian as Ukraine and I don't think they would be willing to risk an open (or plausibly deniable) conflict with Russia.
Also, your "sundry non-crimes" of Israel comment seems to indicate either a lack of knowledge of or inability to admit the reality of crimes such as deliberate targeting of Gazan children with sniper bullets (no fog of war there), the assaults on large civilian gatherings, and a crystal clear attempt to starve some 2 million individuals, of which Hamas contributes at most 25,000, according to public US intelligence estimates. (I don't think we really know.)
7,000 dead Palestinian children under the age of 8. A ratio of dead civilians Palestinian/Israeli of at least 25:1 (and I condemn the October 7th massacre, by the way) and dead children ratio of hundreds! And, BTW, the claims of cutting off babies heads has been proven false. Also, the mass rapes of Israeli women has been investigated by Jewish journalists and also been proven false or at least unsubstantiated, and the claims of UNRWA substantially helping the October 7 massacre have been found by US intelligence to be "of low-confidence" thanks to a rare person in the US Intelligence Apparatus who has a conscious. (I am an American BTW).
I grieve that so many Americans, like you, have let their religious eschatilogical beliefs (and I am a so-called 'evangelical') or their blind political convictions, or their commitment to the US Military-Security-Industrial Apparatus, or some other ideology to cause them to indifferently and callously shrug off what is a terrible evil occurring. Thank you for this opportunity to reply.
Alarming madness from insane fools. I suspect that by the time they got close to Odessa or Kiev the general collapse and the fall of the Govt would have already happened.
I am fairly certain that support for sending USA and French troops into combat has close to zero support by the citizens. Biden does not have legislative clearance for such a thing, and it would never get approved. I suspect the US Army would fight this tooth and nail knowing what would happen. The whole thing is CYA for crooked Biden.
There is much between Bakhmut and Kiev. Russian end-state objectives are indeed unclear - and I would guess even in the Kremlin, they're prepared to adapt to developments.
But you can be completely certain that the end state includes the bulk of Donetk Oblast'. The central core of post-2015 Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk Oblast' is the semicircle of cities coming down from Liman, then down thru Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Konstantinovka etc. These are a formidable and closely spaced urban/suburban line. Chasov Yar (West of Bakhmut, and now in the sights) is near the middle of the semicircle, and probably quite vulnerable from forces entrenched in the urban semicircle. [elev map - https://imgur.com/FJhyBeX , Lyman is not visible but is just to the North]
Historically [ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Izyum%E2%80%93Barvenkovo_offensive ] , for reasons not totally clear to me, and this also included the initial Russian push in this war, I think these cities were approached from the North or West. But today's Russian army has become pretty creative in adapting to assaults of cities in the slow-moving mode, and has been confident on urban battlefields.
Anyway, that's a lot of fighting, just to liberate the key points of the Donesk region. At the current pace, Ukraine could well be demographically exhausted by the time it's done - and both Russia and NATO's current enthusiasm is likely to be reduced by then as well.
Both Ukrainians and Russians are tired of this crazy proxy war, largely stoked by US/NATO neocons and their evil MIC, and led by wannabe Queen Victoria of the Kaganate of Nulandia.
If Odessa and the Pontic coast was really in play, Putin would have done more in Transnistria on the SW border.
And I've said here before that I don't think he can 'straighten the line' from Kupiansk and the Oskil river in the NE to Vuhledar in the SE as far as Kramatorsk.
With Nuland's replacement by a China hawk, and Milley's by the former head of the Pacific Air Command, I'm much more concerned about conflict in the Pacific than in Eastern Europe.
After 20 years of the most successful business model in the history of warfare in Aghanistan, US-NATO-MIC turned to a new interim project in Eastern Europe from the Baltic to the Black Sea, but only as a warm-up for the big game in the Pacific.
First of all, why the mention of the mainstream propaganda Time's cover "The rise of new Antisemitism"? Here in Europe what has grown is "anti Isrealism" but we all know the reasons, so as far as you know the reasons you should accept also the consequences.
The old tune "We got the Power, we got the Truth" is over kids, please grow up!
China recently has published a delicious analysis on USA Hegemony, pretty short and pretty straight, quite hard not to side with that, for any reasonable, rational, human being not grown in the States.
So, what Russia will do after the usual threat from USA and its puppet Macron? Or whatever puppet they did or will instruct to speak with the same insane, nazi, attitudes?
Russia and China and the countries that do not eat daily meals of US propaganda, are clearly for the end of war and for what was discussed in Minsk I and II. As you wrote Ukraine will kick out its US/Nato bases and organizations, mercenaries, and possibly all those Azov nazi, then sign for neutrality and as not Nato country, and all the rest included "forget Donbass as Ukraine again". Plus, I add, Russians will pretend to get access and destroy all CIA installations, were them 12 or more?
If the US will to have a nuclear war, this will include China, India, not only Russia. Is it worth for US policy or for the other nazi puppet of Stoltenberg? Do you really think that the US military sabotage of North Streams, a civil infrastructure that was really helpful not only to German economy but to Europe economy, that include my self, will be accepted as a collateral damage of US proxy war?
Do you really think that all those EU leaders puppets, EU Commission more than others, will survive the Europeans anger? June will tell something about.
If USA, 'cause talking of Biden, Trump, Obama bin laden, or any other actor put in power it's pretty ridiculous and unreal, want to escalate its will for bloody wars, proxy or boots in the field, then I'm pretty sorry, but ok could be WWIII, but also that China document is the truth 1000%.
The world has a problem, and that problem is USA. No doubt.
100,000 French surrender monkeys pissing themselves at the sight of an actual Russian soldier would be hilarious. Russians could just walk up and down the ranks executing the Frogs one by one while they stood there voiding their bowels. Put Marcon in there with a Sergeants Guard just for fun.
Russia needs Odessa for safety. It cann't allow NATO in the Black Sea. Did the UK not invested in Odessa to build a naval base? But maybe Russia doesn't has to fight over Odessa. If the Ukrainian army collapse and surrenders then Russia can dictate their terms. All Russian speaking territories will join the Russian Federation. Ukraine has always been a red line, you really can't count how many times Putin told that, and what will happen if the west crossed that red line. We know the west is totally bananas and will never accept defeat. From the start I predict they will do something stupid. Soon we will see long range missiles to strike Russia and eventually NATO troops in Ukraine. There're no safe places from Russian weapons. But Russia has been very carefull to not escalate. In case of NATO troops this time Russia should strike them. When you put together all the pieces the west has been trying to destroy Russia for decades. Putin has warned the west, many times now, the only one to blame when we all burn is NATO and pur narcists leaders.
Although the rhetoric coming from the likes of Macron has to be a little disconcerting, in the end it doesn't amount to anything. The most belligerent governments in the EU are all on very thin ice. Scholz knows this in Germany, and refuses to participate in major escalation. And just about every EU official understand that the weaponry just isn't there to start something with the Russians. And furthermore if truly threatened the Russians will use tactical nukes. EU populations don't want any part of this.
For some fun insight into Russian thinking, watch the films Brat and Brat2. Brat means brother in Russian. They're great films from 97 and 2000 and free on youtube with subtitles. I am absolutely sure that 99.99% of Russians would love to kick our (Americans) teeth out if they can get the chance. I agree they don't want a big war, but they'll forgive Putin everything if he can pull it off without too much long term damage. Surely Burns is cagey enough to keep us out of a trap like that.
I think Stephen is right that the Russians won't stop until NATO is kicked out of Ukraine. As Lenin said: "...with bayonets, if you find mush you push..."
I could not have predicted any of this in February of 2022. Now, we are doing the WW3 blink game with the Russian spy master that doesn’t care about casualties, just results. And this fight will not be contained to Ukraine.
I'm sorry but what does France have to offer? A few thousand troops? The planes will be shot down rather quickly and their equipment appears rather very vulnerable against Lancet drones.
Dmitri Trenin (formerly pro Western analyst) said it really well the other day. The West doesn't fear Russia anymore and that's the problem. Russia should get back to nuclear tests and show them the capabilities of their new ICBMs. Perhaps that will wake up a few Western leaders.
I'm not at all convinced that France will come to the defense of Ukraine. Why would the French establishment risk complete upheaval at home for the sake of what's essentially a pet project of Poland? French goal is probably limited to securing Moldova. They will send a large contingent to ostensibly defend Odessa. When the Russians do approach that city, the French can always back off, citing the inability of French warships to cross the Bosphorus. Maybe they'll make a move against Transnistria. Putin probably understands that he needs to give Europe some sort of consolation prize. A bloodless victory can be engineered.
Thank you for the article. A not-so-small issue regarding Russian interest in Odessa, which you apparently do not think is significant, is that leaving Odessa to Ukraine gives the post-war Ukraine access to the Black Sea and the ever-present threat of sea-drones and threats to Russian shipping. I don't think Russia will allow that. I know NATO already has access to the Black Sea but I don't think the countries involved such as Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey are so rabidly anti-Russian as Ukraine and I don't think they would be willing to risk an open (or plausibly deniable) conflict with Russia.
Also, your "sundry non-crimes" of Israel comment seems to indicate either a lack of knowledge of or inability to admit the reality of crimes such as deliberate targeting of Gazan children with sniper bullets (no fog of war there), the assaults on large civilian gatherings, and a crystal clear attempt to starve some 2 million individuals, of which Hamas contributes at most 25,000, according to public US intelligence estimates. (I don't think we really know.)
7,000 dead Palestinian children under the age of 8. A ratio of dead civilians Palestinian/Israeli of at least 25:1 (and I condemn the October 7th massacre, by the way) and dead children ratio of hundreds! And, BTW, the claims of cutting off babies heads has been proven false. Also, the mass rapes of Israeli women has been investigated by Jewish journalists and also been proven false or at least unsubstantiated, and the claims of UNRWA substantially helping the October 7 massacre have been found by US intelligence to be "of low-confidence" thanks to a rare person in the US Intelligence Apparatus who has a conscious. (I am an American BTW).
I grieve that so many Americans, like you, have let their religious eschatilogical beliefs (and I am a so-called 'evangelical') or their blind political convictions, or their commitment to the US Military-Security-Industrial Apparatus, or some other ideology to cause them to indifferently and callously shrug off what is a terrible evil occurring. Thank you for this opportunity to reply.
Alarming madness from insane fools. I suspect that by the time they got close to Odessa or Kiev the general collapse and the fall of the Govt would have already happened.
I am fairly certain that support for sending USA and French troops into combat has close to zero support by the citizens. Biden does not have legislative clearance for such a thing, and it would never get approved. I suspect the US Army would fight this tooth and nail knowing what would happen. The whole thing is CYA for crooked Biden.
There is much between Bakhmut and Kiev. Russian end-state objectives are indeed unclear - and I would guess even in the Kremlin, they're prepared to adapt to developments.
But you can be completely certain that the end state includes the bulk of Donetk Oblast'. The central core of post-2015 Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk Oblast' is the semicircle of cities coming down from Liman, then down thru Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Konstantinovka etc. These are a formidable and closely spaced urban/suburban line. Chasov Yar (West of Bakhmut, and now in the sights) is near the middle of the semicircle, and probably quite vulnerable from forces entrenched in the urban semicircle. [elev map - https://imgur.com/FJhyBeX , Lyman is not visible but is just to the North]
Historically [ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Izyum%E2%80%93Barvenkovo_offensive ] , for reasons not totally clear to me, and this also included the initial Russian push in this war, I think these cities were approached from the North or West. But today's Russian army has become pretty creative in adapting to assaults of cities in the slow-moving mode, and has been confident on urban battlefields.
Anyway, that's a lot of fighting, just to liberate the key points of the Donesk region. At the current pace, Ukraine could well be demographically exhausted by the time it's done - and both Russia and NATO's current enthusiasm is likely to be reduced by then as well.
Stop kidding yourselves. It's coming.
A lot of grand fantasies in the comments here.
Both Ukrainians and Russians are tired of this crazy proxy war, largely stoked by US/NATO neocons and their evil MIC, and led by wannabe Queen Victoria of the Kaganate of Nulandia.
If Odessa and the Pontic coast was really in play, Putin would have done more in Transnistria on the SW border.
And I've said here before that I don't think he can 'straighten the line' from Kupiansk and the Oskil river in the NE to Vuhledar in the SE as far as Kramatorsk.
With Nuland's replacement by a China hawk, and Milley's by the former head of the Pacific Air Command, I'm much more concerned about conflict in the Pacific than in Eastern Europe.
After 20 years of the most successful business model in the history of warfare in Aghanistan, US-NATO-MIC turned to a new interim project in Eastern Europe from the Baltic to the Black Sea, but only as a warm-up for the big game in the Pacific.
First of all, why the mention of the mainstream propaganda Time's cover "The rise of new Antisemitism"? Here in Europe what has grown is "anti Isrealism" but we all know the reasons, so as far as you know the reasons you should accept also the consequences.
The old tune "We got the Power, we got the Truth" is over kids, please grow up!
China recently has published a delicious analysis on USA Hegemony, pretty short and pretty straight, quite hard not to side with that, for any reasonable, rational, human being not grown in the States.
So, what Russia will do after the usual threat from USA and its puppet Macron? Or whatever puppet they did or will instruct to speak with the same insane, nazi, attitudes?
Russia and China and the countries that do not eat daily meals of US propaganda, are clearly for the end of war and for what was discussed in Minsk I and II. As you wrote Ukraine will kick out its US/Nato bases and organizations, mercenaries, and possibly all those Azov nazi, then sign for neutrality and as not Nato country, and all the rest included "forget Donbass as Ukraine again". Plus, I add, Russians will pretend to get access and destroy all CIA installations, were them 12 or more?
If the US will to have a nuclear war, this will include China, India, not only Russia. Is it worth for US policy or for the other nazi puppet of Stoltenberg? Do you really think that the US military sabotage of North Streams, a civil infrastructure that was really helpful not only to German economy but to Europe economy, that include my self, will be accepted as a collateral damage of US proxy war?
Do you really think that all those EU leaders puppets, EU Commission more than others, will survive the Europeans anger? June will tell something about.
If USA, 'cause talking of Biden, Trump, Obama bin laden, or any other actor put in power it's pretty ridiculous and unreal, want to escalate its will for bloody wars, proxy or boots in the field, then I'm pretty sorry, but ok could be WWIII, but also that China document is the truth 1000%.
The world has a problem, and that problem is USA. No doubt.
100,000 French surrender monkeys pissing themselves at the sight of an actual Russian soldier would be hilarious. Russians could just walk up and down the ranks executing the Frogs one by one while they stood there voiding their bowels. Put Marcon in there with a Sergeants Guard just for fun.
Russia needs Odessa for safety. It cann't allow NATO in the Black Sea. Did the UK not invested in Odessa to build a naval base? But maybe Russia doesn't has to fight over Odessa. If the Ukrainian army collapse and surrenders then Russia can dictate their terms. All Russian speaking territories will join the Russian Federation. Ukraine has always been a red line, you really can't count how many times Putin told that, and what will happen if the west crossed that red line. We know the west is totally bananas and will never accept defeat. From the start I predict they will do something stupid. Soon we will see long range missiles to strike Russia and eventually NATO troops in Ukraine. There're no safe places from Russian weapons. But Russia has been very carefull to not escalate. In case of NATO troops this time Russia should strike them. When you put together all the pieces the west has been trying to destroy Russia for decades. Putin has warned the west, many times now, the only one to blame when we all burn is NATO and pur narcists leaders.
Although the rhetoric coming from the likes of Macron has to be a little disconcerting, in the end it doesn't amount to anything. The most belligerent governments in the EU are all on very thin ice. Scholz knows this in Germany, and refuses to participate in major escalation. And just about every EU official understand that the weaponry just isn't there to start something with the Russians. And furthermore if truly threatened the Russians will use tactical nukes. EU populations don't want any part of this.
For some fun insight into Russian thinking, watch the films Brat and Brat2. Brat means brother in Russian. They're great films from 97 and 2000 and free on youtube with subtitles. I am absolutely sure that 99.99% of Russians would love to kick our (Americans) teeth out if they can get the chance. I agree they don't want a big war, but they'll forgive Putin everything if he can pull it off without too much long term damage. Surely Burns is cagey enough to keep us out of a trap like that.
Biden will get his ass handed to him if he tries.
I think Stephen is right that the Russians won't stop until NATO is kicked out of Ukraine. As Lenin said: "...with bayonets, if you find mush you push..."
If I were the Russians my maximalist goal would probably look something like this:
1) annex a big part of the east outright
2) make a Belarus-style client state in the middle of present day Ukraine with some revived historical name
3) leave the western third of what is now Ukraine to its fate. Greater Galicia can join NATO, the EU, whatever, it doesn't matter
I could not have predicted any of this in February of 2022. Now, we are doing the WW3 blink game with the Russian spy master that doesn’t care about casualties, just results. And this fight will not be contained to Ukraine.
I'm sorry but what does France have to offer? A few thousand troops? The planes will be shot down rather quickly and their equipment appears rather very vulnerable against Lancet drones.
Dmitri Trenin (formerly pro Western analyst) said it really well the other day. The West doesn't fear Russia anymore and that's the problem. Russia should get back to nuclear tests and show them the capabilities of their new ICBMs. Perhaps that will wake up a few Western leaders.
The link to the article can be found here https://profile.ru/abroad/kak-rossiya-mozhet-pokonchit-s-deficitom-straha-v-otnosheniyah-s-zapadom-1456137/
I'm not at all convinced that France will come to the defense of Ukraine. Why would the French establishment risk complete upheaval at home for the sake of what's essentially a pet project of Poland? French goal is probably limited to securing Moldova. They will send a large contingent to ostensibly defend Odessa. When the Russians do approach that city, the French can always back off, citing the inability of French warships to cross the Bosphorus. Maybe they'll make a move against Transnistria. Putin probably understands that he needs to give Europe some sort of consolation prize. A bloodless victory can be engineered.