Apparently nobody here has read the sub from Events in Ukraine from the other day. He did a deep dive into the Ukrainian drone program. It’s not pretty, full of grifters, and obsessive about killing individual orcs. They even give “points” for each orc killed, turning real life into a game. Problem is this leaves the orcs with a few ever advancing drone models to obliterate the Ukrainian rear.
It actually is. Russia has some volunteers building the occasional drone, but the vast majority of Russian drones are a few cheap, effective models. Geranium for the big ones, Prince Vandal drone for FPV, and a new heavy drone model that is coming online.
You even see Ukrainian soldiers on Telegram constantly complaining how they’re being out droned on a mass scale, while simultaneously have to deal with a dozen, mutually incompatible models.
Not the point. In saying Russia is as corrupt as Ukraine and yes Russian soldiers are dying too thanks to that. Scale to be determined it's not that Russia is so me e holy Saint for grunts.
"As for drones, around 200 have been produced so far."
So ... not a game-changing supply in a conflict in which drones are used in their tens of thousands.
Then there is the other issue about whether all the citizens of the Czech Republic and Slovakia are supportive of becoming Zelensky's co-belligerents -- with possible major negative consequences down the line.
The more interesting aspect is the implication that militarized drone technology is now within the grasp of any dissident group which thinks it would be useful -- whether that is your local drug gang or the Usual Suspects in Minneapolis. Now, that development could be very big!
Aaaand this is why Ukraine is losing the drone war, and ultimately will lose the war.
The Russian military industrial complex has doubled down on mass producing one or two simple, cheap models, whereas Ukraine has chosen to “let a thousand flowers bloom” with dozens of models, often with incompatible parts and batteries, from a multitude of volunteers and private manufacturers.
Which is a source of constant frustration if you ask Ukrainian soldiers, along with their overall drone strategy.
The Russian method is aimed at winning a war.
The Ukrainian method is aimed at maximizing kickbacks and profits.
Excellent breakdown on how fiber optic dispensers solve the jamming problem. The shift from 30-100ms lag in RF drones to sub-1ms in fiber variants is huge for precision targeting. Also interesting how China's dominance in rare earths and components basically makes them the quiet supplier for both sides regardless of export controls.
Rare earths and battery components can be recycled. So the big reason for the decline of Big Steel was actually because Nucor developed the technology to recycle scrap in mini mills. America definitely needs to develop domestic supply chains but we should also be importing as much Chinese stuff as possible until then…because once it’s on American soil it can be recycled in perpetuity!!
There are no magic solutions available in real life. Currently, recycling meets about one percent of demand. Currently, only about fifty percent of rare earth products and related magnets can be effectively recycled. Currently the original iterations of those products are supposed to last *at least* five years. Every year demand increases by orders of magnitude over the previous year.
So .... all that is available for recycling is material from five years ago at best. *That* supply is comparatively tiny compared to current needs.. Of that material available from five years ago, only less than fifty per cent can be recovered. Every year the gap between the available supply for recycling and the demand for product is not only repeated but grows worse
Currently, recycling costs are comparable to manufacturing the original product. To recover meaningful amounts of the needed materials through current processes would require scaling up production on a vast scale which involves years and tens of billions of dollars. And it still doesn't begin to solve the original problem which is an acute shortage of preferred supply when we need it.
Recycling is always a good thing wherever practical But this instance of recycling is one hundred per cent, totally, absolutely irrelevant to solving the current dilemma.
They are getting paid top dollar to build the facilities and equipment essential for modern warfare while also getting detailed feedback on what works and what does not.
All this without any Chinese even getting a scratch.
And don’t think Putin doesn’t knows any value added exports to China are temporary as they will reverse engineer all of the technology and develop the industry for their own. In the end China only wants grains and energy from a trade partner as America learned the hard way from 2002-2009.
Under globalization, all value added products will be reverse engineered and developed by someone else if it is to their advantage. How do you think America got rich and powerful in the first place? By deliberately using outmoded technology and practices? By not manufacturing anything of its own?
Now America has grown literally fat and mentally lazy, more interested in the financialization engineering of new financial instruments. Calling the other guy names because he is working harder and smarter.
Simply trying to reverse that slow degradation is producing a drift to potential civil war.
The fiber spools out from the drone, it’s not dragged along. There are pictures of the battle zones covered in a web of fibers left behind the many drones deployed. They will be difficult to remove.
It does get stuck. It takes a highly skilled operator to make sure that doesn't happen very often. It's not like sitting in your living room with a virtual reality headset playing a game.
However, demonstrated skill at such gaming can get you posted to the elite operators cohort to receive extensive training. On the Russian side, that is a big deal. Lots of perks, already very well paid and rotated through private companies making drones to provide combat experience input to the producers. Six months on the front line, six months back home in a factory as the resident hero/expert. Then six months back on the front line bringing their new technology that they helped design.
The Russians have thousands of them in their elite unit. The Ukrainians fear them. The Ukrainians can't effectively reproduce the approach because they are too short of manpower to run such long term programs.
So why don’t they also run electricity through a cable? Why even depend on batteries? I would think the final solution would be controlling drones and powering them with “lasers”.
Both your suggestions are doable but depend on the mission for effectiveness.
Adding heavy, electricity capable strands to optical strands for a power supply dramatically reduces the range of a drone intended to move far and wide equipped to carry out a mission of some kind.
The added weight adds a whole range of serious problems for even the most skilled operator. Not just added to the the weight of the drone but the weight of the cable dragged through the air behind the drone. Lines snapping because of tension issues, cable swinging around in the wind making it difficult to fully control the drone, cable getting caught up in the propellors ......all become very, very difficult for proper operation. In my previous post, I mentioned the importance of skilled operators to operate combat drones. It is these never discussed issues about drone combat that make the difference.
A drone hovering overhead for hours in a static position can utilize them though. You don't even need an operator except for launch and recovery.
Lasers require line of sight positioning, unobstructed by anything including rain, fog, snow for the duration of the mission etc to power the drone. Such conversion from coherent light to electricity is unbelievably inefficient with a tremendous power loss during the conversion. Better just to figure out a way to get that power laser positioned so that it can hit the target directly.
I struggle to get my head around 65km spools with latency below 1ms.
But clearly they exist and work at 100kph and are only about 20x30cm spooled, weighing only a couple of kilos.
And I've seen images of frontline areas covered with a mesh of near-transparent kevlar-reinforced 150u fibres, like a vast spiderweb.
I guess eventually that complicates not only target approach of further drones, but various other things too?
It's a strange new frontline (if that word means much any more) in many ways, transformed by drones as earlier by longbows or guns.
War will never be the same again.
Apparently nobody here has read the sub from Events in Ukraine from the other day. He did a deep dive into the Ukrainian drone program. It’s not pretty, full of grifters, and obsessive about killing individual orcs. They even give “points” for each orc killed, turning real life into a game. Problem is this leaves the orcs with a few ever advancing drone models to obliterate the Ukrainian rear.
I read it.
It’s a typically Ukrainian story. Benefits oligarchs, politicians and military insiders, while screwing soldiers and losing the war.
Yeah and that is totally unlike whats happening in Russia ;) except for "losing the war" part.
It actually is. Russia has some volunteers building the occasional drone, but the vast majority of Russian drones are a few cheap, effective models. Geranium for the big ones, Prince Vandal drone for FPV, and a new heavy drone model that is coming online.
You even see Ukrainian soldiers on Telegram constantly complaining how they’re being out droned on a mass scale, while simultaneously have to deal with a dozen, mutually incompatible models.
Not the point. In saying Russia is as corrupt as Ukraine and yes Russian soldiers are dying too thanks to that. Scale to be determined it's not that Russia is so me e holy Saint for grunts.
"As for drones, around 200 have been produced so far."
So ... not a game-changing supply in a conflict in which drones are used in their tens of thousands.
Then there is the other issue about whether all the citizens of the Czech Republic and Slovakia are supportive of becoming Zelensky's co-belligerents -- with possible major negative consequences down the line.
The more interesting aspect is the implication that militarized drone technology is now within the grasp of any dissident group which thinks it would be useful -- whether that is your local drug gang or the Usual Suspects in Minneapolis. Now, that development could be very big!
Aaaand this is why Ukraine is losing the drone war, and ultimately will lose the war.
The Russian military industrial complex has doubled down on mass producing one or two simple, cheap models, whereas Ukraine has chosen to “let a thousand flowers bloom” with dozens of models, often with incompatible parts and batteries, from a multitude of volunteers and private manufacturers.
Which is a source of constant frustration if you ask Ukrainian soldiers, along with their overall drone strategy.
The Russian method is aimed at winning a war.
The Ukrainian method is aimed at maximizing kickbacks and profits.
Excellent breakdown on how fiber optic dispensers solve the jamming problem. The shift from 30-100ms lag in RF drones to sub-1ms in fiber variants is huge for precision targeting. Also interesting how China's dominance in rare earths and components basically makes them the quiet supplier for both sides regardless of export controls.
Rare earths and battery components can be recycled. So the big reason for the decline of Big Steel was actually because Nucor developed the technology to recycle scrap in mini mills. America definitely needs to develop domestic supply chains but we should also be importing as much Chinese stuff as possible until then…because once it’s on American soil it can be recycled in perpetuity!!
Gene Frenkle
There are no magic solutions available in real life. Currently, recycling meets about one percent of demand. Currently, only about fifty percent of rare earth products and related magnets can be effectively recycled. Currently the original iterations of those products are supposed to last *at least* five years. Every year demand increases by orders of magnitude over the previous year.
So .... all that is available for recycling is material from five years ago at best. *That* supply is comparatively tiny compared to current needs.. Of that material available from five years ago, only less than fifty per cent can be recovered. Every year the gap between the available supply for recycling and the demand for product is not only repeated but grows worse
Currently, recycling costs are comparable to manufacturing the original product. To recover meaningful amounts of the needed materials through current processes would require scaling up production on a vast scale which involves years and tens of billions of dollars. And it still doesn't begin to solve the original problem which is an acute shortage of preferred supply when we need it.
Recycling is always a good thing wherever practical But this instance of recycling is one hundred per cent, totally, absolutely irrelevant to solving the current dilemma.
Have to admire the Chinese.
They are getting paid top dollar to build the facilities and equipment essential for modern warfare while also getting detailed feedback on what works and what does not.
All this without any Chinese even getting a scratch.
And don’t think Putin doesn’t knows any value added exports to China are temporary as they will reverse engineer all of the technology and develop the industry for their own. In the end China only wants grains and energy from a trade partner as America learned the hard way from 2002-2009.
Under globalization, all value added products will be reverse engineered and developed by someone else if it is to their advantage. How do you think America got rich and powerful in the first place? By deliberately using outmoded technology and practices? By not manufacturing anything of its own?
Now America has grown literally fat and mentally lazy, more interested in the financialization engineering of new financial instruments. Calling the other guy names because he is working harder and smarter.
Simply trying to reverse that slow degradation is producing a drift to potential civil war.
And selling to both sides.
Like any good capitalist comrade.
So these drones just trail ten miles of fiber optic cable behind them? How does it not get stuck on things?
The fiber spools out from the drone, it’s not dragged along. There are pictures of the battle zones covered in a web of fibers left behind the many drones deployed. They will be difficult to remove.
Etudiant
It does get stuck. It takes a highly skilled operator to make sure that doesn't happen very often. It's not like sitting in your living room with a virtual reality headset playing a game.
However, demonstrated skill at such gaming can get you posted to the elite operators cohort to receive extensive training. On the Russian side, that is a big deal. Lots of perks, already very well paid and rotated through private companies making drones to provide combat experience input to the producers. Six months on the front line, six months back home in a factory as the resident hero/expert. Then six months back on the front line bringing their new technology that they helped design.
The Russians have thousands of them in their elite unit. The Ukrainians fear them. The Ukrainians can't effectively reproduce the approach because they are too short of manpower to run such long term programs.
Even so, if it is ten miles of fiber from the drone to the ground it is hard to imagine how it isn't getting stuck on all sorts of things
The fiber is held by the launcher and gets unspooled from the drone, so it is not pulled along at all.
As it floats down to the ground, it may get snagged on trees and shrubs, but that won't break it.
So why don’t they also run electricity through a cable? Why even depend on batteries? I would think the final solution would be controlling drones and powering them with “lasers”.
Both your suggestions are doable but depend on the mission for effectiveness.
Adding heavy, electricity capable strands to optical strands for a power supply dramatically reduces the range of a drone intended to move far and wide equipped to carry out a mission of some kind.
The added weight adds a whole range of serious problems for even the most skilled operator. Not just added to the the weight of the drone but the weight of the cable dragged through the air behind the drone. Lines snapping because of tension issues, cable swinging around in the wind making it difficult to fully control the drone, cable getting caught up in the propellors ......all become very, very difficult for proper operation. In my previous post, I mentioned the importance of skilled operators to operate combat drones. It is these never discussed issues about drone combat that make the difference.
A drone hovering overhead for hours in a static position can utilize them though. You don't even need an operator except for launch and recovery.
Lasers require line of sight positioning, unobstructed by anything including rain, fog, snow for the duration of the mission etc to power the drone. Such conversion from coherent light to electricity is unbelievably inefficient with a tremendous power loss during the conversion. Better just to figure out a way to get that power laser positioned so that it can hit the target directly.