The MSM and government officials in the West refer to this as 'Putin's War.' The fact of the matter is Putin could die in his sleep tonight and the trajectory of this war would not change. There is a universal understanding amongst those who govern the Russian Federation that a NATO aligned Ukraine is an existential security threat to Russia. The war would go on.
Joe Biden insists that there will be no American boots on the ground in Ukraine (or at least none that are acknowledged). Might things change if he were to be re-elected in November? Three US presidents, all Democrats, swore up and down to the voters that they would NOT send our 'boys' to fight in overseas wars when they were running for re-election. They were Wilson in 1916, FDR in 1940 and LBJ in 1964. All reneged on their promise and committed US forces to combat. Might Scranton Joe be number four? He has repeatedly stated that "Putin must not win."
Finally, the West has repeatedly gloated about Ukraine's successful attacks against Russia's Black Sea fleet. Russia is a land power and its navy played a strictly minor supporting role in both World War I and II. In fact, during World War II many Soviet sailors were used as infantry. The sea battle here is a side-show; the operations that matter are the air/land battle.
2,000 or even 20,000 french troops won't be enough to do anything. Nor will the Taurus missiles, which Ukraine will get, sooner or later. If necessary, france and the various other eurovassals will remind germany of something called "european solidarity", which is one of those nebulous concepts that europoliticians use to enforce compliance, only to withdraw when it no longer is convenient.
20,000 french troops will just get mangled. The problem is that, if and when that happens, Macron won't just take his bat and ball and go home. It's the escalation after that that concerns me. With every reckless escalation, the sunk cost of leaving Ukraine grows. That, combined with the fact that european leaders themselves never face any consequences, leads them to keep doubling down. This abuse of The Sunk Cost Fallacy is entirely intentional.
No, that escalation will not be popular. Macron doesn't care, nor do the other vassals, puppets, lackeys, catamites and buttbois in office in europe. Nor are they bluffing. We've seen that with every other escalation in this war. They are deadly serious when they would burn all of us, if that is what it takes for Russia not to win.
Read any good history on WW ONE and the stories of the generals sitting at home ordering the soldiers out of the trenches, over the top, charging the enemy into machine guns. Tens of thousands dead in minutes. The royalty and generals never saw the carnage they created. Tut tut old boy.
Do any of you think that attitude has changed one iota? Scholz, Macron, the EU LEADERSHIP are the inheritors of those miserable bastards!
It’s not just Europe that is facing defeat in Ukraine. It is the United States, the Biden Administration, all those who have supported its foreign policy.
One thing to keep in mind is that France is among the countries who have given the least amount of military aid to Ukraine. Its 0.64 billion euro contribution is less than that from tiny Estonia (0.89 b) and is completely dwarfed by what the Germans have given (17.7 b). Are we really supposed to believe that now Macron is suddenly some sort of super hawk? Perhaps his talk of sending NATO troops is just a sly way of highlighting Ukraine's manpower problem. I mean, Biden is still pushing the line that the Ukrainians only need the tools to defend themselves. Someone has to come out and say that is not true.
Does Europe and the United States need a war to distract the masses from what is really going on? My fear is that war with Russia will be used as a reason to infringe on common people’s rights. I agree that the prolonging of the conflict has only allowed Russia to educate leadership at all levels of command to better tips and practices. In 2025 the Russian army will be vastly improved over the army of Spring of 2022. Now that new tanks and fighting vehicles are being built to replace losses who can even say that this will end with a Ukrainian victory???
It all seems to be an unoriginal plan by the Atlanticists, to get European countries to fight Russia. With Ukraine's absurd sacrifice of their country and people apparently insufficient. Anyway I think the Euro political class, at least those East of the Rhine, comprehends that there's no upside in this for their countries. They just can't bring themselves to step out of line.
Fortunately, they don't have the means to take on this battle for the time being. There's going to be a lot of huffing and puffing, but the path of least resistance is that US coughs up more money - there are signs of this now in the House - and everything continues in the attritional mode.
The EU is done for, and not just in the military way. Europe is declining rapidly in importance in the world and will end up as an agrarian (&tourist) backwater within another generation or two.
The only way out the EU leaders seem to see is an (economic) expansion east. Without access to the riches of Russia, the EU is doomed.
Of course, Europe could trade for these resources, but then the EU would end up a satellite to Russia, which is probably not what they want.
If Europe is facing a defeat in Ukraine, then US is facing a very good victory as head of CIA wrote in a recent article " war in Ukraine has been a good business for USA".
On the other hand it's enuf to see the differences in Military spending where US Government and Pentagon and CIA money laundry Tax payers money for almost 1 Trillion while Russia or Cina are around 250/300 billions.
By those numbers you quickly understand who started the War in Ukraine or in Gaza or in the Middle Est since 2001, just to not go back too far from now...
And as skeptic people, curios people and people with a deep sense of criticism of the "System" know, the US main goal was to annoy, disturb and check Russia, but the second not even secondary "mission" was to weaken Europe as they did with WWII, and cut the good relations and strong economic ties between Europeans and Russians that grew much within this new century. Because as Russia, as Putin, we Europeans like peace, prosperity, deals and collaborations, not genocides, wars, destruction as Americans (and not only their Government and Agencies) do.
Regarding actual European leaders, I mean, should I laugh or cry or kill them all? Those are just mainly American's puppets as Zelensky is! A Chirac in France or a Schmidt in Germany or a Craxi in Italy, would have shown a big fat middle finger to Trump - Biden actors!
The World has a big problem, and that problem is USA. Do not forget and do not be that ignorant to not know it. Txs!
update - looks like RF did indeed respond to the previous UA strikes on energy infrastructure. RU telegram reports multiple strikes vs natgas distribution equipment near Stryi, 49.3603510, 23.9051056 (source: https://t.me/boris_rozhin/117779). This region happens to be also where Ukraine's largest underground natgas storage is located, the Bilche-Volytsko-Uherske facility, with 17 bcm capacity as of 2021. If that was the target, it would be a big deal. Ukraine's capacious gas storage, inherited from better times, is also used by EU to buffer peak gas demand in winter. This would not be a comfortable game to play for EU, though it can be done. EU itself has a little over 100 bcm storage, UA has 30 ish. The main result is likely to be more natgas price volatility. (reference - https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:2974/1*c4wWh-drtbRLGRhbR00wrg.jpeg - random google image search, no endorsement of the source)
I went by train from Moscow to Odessa thirty one years ago this month with my girlfriend. At that time there was a lot of talk about Russia and Crimea and the Black Sea Fleet. Odessa was run down but still beautiful. I was just a kid and didn't understand much, but when I asked a girl there if she felt she was a Russian or Ukrainian, she said, "I'm an Odessan." I'll bet there are a lot of people who still feel that way. We have to remember that people in other places don't think in the same way we (Americans) do. They have much more familiarity with tragedy for one thing. Unfortunately, we're slowly getting ourselves into a situation where we might gain more personal understanding. Overall, I think the comments I've read here are very insightful. I would like to hear Mr. Bryen's analysis of what's coming for the Baltic states, say, two steps ahead of a Ukrainian capitulation. Any analysis would need to take into account the large resident populations of Russians living there. These countries are brought up as being vulnerable to Russian attack in nearly every utterance of western politicians' exhortation for more money and weapons right now. Is this true, Mr. Bryen?
I always go back to the 1993 George Soros article about using an Eastern European former Soviet satellite to fight a proxy war with Russia and use their military rather than any NATO forces to defeat Russia and split up Russia. - https://archive.org/details/toward-a-new-world-order
I do feel sorry for all the young Ukrainian's who are being used while they have their patriotism used for less than patriotic goals.
It's funny that the silhouette of a Russian MiG-29 was used in the picture with the Taurus rocket! Yes, I know that this plane is also in the Ukrainian Air Force, but it's still a Russian plane!
Three observations....
The MSM and government officials in the West refer to this as 'Putin's War.' The fact of the matter is Putin could die in his sleep tonight and the trajectory of this war would not change. There is a universal understanding amongst those who govern the Russian Federation that a NATO aligned Ukraine is an existential security threat to Russia. The war would go on.
Joe Biden insists that there will be no American boots on the ground in Ukraine (or at least none that are acknowledged). Might things change if he were to be re-elected in November? Three US presidents, all Democrats, swore up and down to the voters that they would NOT send our 'boys' to fight in overseas wars when they were running for re-election. They were Wilson in 1916, FDR in 1940 and LBJ in 1964. All reneged on their promise and committed US forces to combat. Might Scranton Joe be number four? He has repeatedly stated that "Putin must not win."
Finally, the West has repeatedly gloated about Ukraine's successful attacks against Russia's Black Sea fleet. Russia is a land power and its navy played a strictly minor supporting role in both World War I and II. In fact, during World War II many Soviet sailors were used as infantry. The sea battle here is a side-show; the operations that matter are the air/land battle.
2,000 or even 20,000 french troops won't be enough to do anything. Nor will the Taurus missiles, which Ukraine will get, sooner or later. If necessary, france and the various other eurovassals will remind germany of something called "european solidarity", which is one of those nebulous concepts that europoliticians use to enforce compliance, only to withdraw when it no longer is convenient.
20,000 french troops will just get mangled. The problem is that, if and when that happens, Macron won't just take his bat and ball and go home. It's the escalation after that that concerns me. With every reckless escalation, the sunk cost of leaving Ukraine grows. That, combined with the fact that european leaders themselves never face any consequences, leads them to keep doubling down. This abuse of The Sunk Cost Fallacy is entirely intentional.
No, that escalation will not be popular. Macron doesn't care, nor do the other vassals, puppets, lackeys, catamites and buttbois in office in europe. Nor are they bluffing. We've seen that with every other escalation in this war. They are deadly serious when they would burn all of us, if that is what it takes for Russia not to win.
Read any good history on WW ONE and the stories of the generals sitting at home ordering the soldiers out of the trenches, over the top, charging the enemy into machine guns. Tens of thousands dead in minutes. The royalty and generals never saw the carnage they created. Tut tut old boy.
Do any of you think that attitude has changed one iota? Scholz, Macron, the EU LEADERSHIP are the inheritors of those miserable bastards!
It’s not just Europe that is facing defeat in Ukraine. It is the United States, the Biden Administration, all those who have supported its foreign policy.
One thing to keep in mind is that France is among the countries who have given the least amount of military aid to Ukraine. Its 0.64 billion euro contribution is less than that from tiny Estonia (0.89 b) and is completely dwarfed by what the Germans have given (17.7 b). Are we really supposed to believe that now Macron is suddenly some sort of super hawk? Perhaps his talk of sending NATO troops is just a sly way of highlighting Ukraine's manpower problem. I mean, Biden is still pushing the line that the Ukrainians only need the tools to defend themselves. Someone has to come out and say that is not true.
Does Europe and the United States need a war to distract the masses from what is really going on? My fear is that war with Russia will be used as a reason to infringe on common people’s rights. I agree that the prolonging of the conflict has only allowed Russia to educate leadership at all levels of command to better tips and practices. In 2025 the Russian army will be vastly improved over the army of Spring of 2022. Now that new tanks and fighting vehicles are being built to replace losses who can even say that this will end with a Ukrainian victory???
It all seems to be an unoriginal plan by the Atlanticists, to get European countries to fight Russia. With Ukraine's absurd sacrifice of their country and people apparently insufficient. Anyway I think the Euro political class, at least those East of the Rhine, comprehends that there's no upside in this for their countries. They just can't bring themselves to step out of line.
Fortunately, they don't have the means to take on this battle for the time being. There's going to be a lot of huffing and puffing, but the path of least resistance is that US coughs up more money - there are signs of this now in the House - and everything continues in the attritional mode.
The EU is done for, and not just in the military way. Europe is declining rapidly in importance in the world and will end up as an agrarian (&tourist) backwater within another generation or two.
The only way out the EU leaders seem to see is an (economic) expansion east. Without access to the riches of Russia, the EU is doomed.
Of course, Europe could trade for these resources, but then the EU would end up a satellite to Russia, which is probably not what they want.
If Europe is facing a defeat in Ukraine, then US is facing a very good victory as head of CIA wrote in a recent article " war in Ukraine has been a good business for USA".
On the other hand it's enuf to see the differences in Military spending where US Government and Pentagon and CIA money laundry Tax payers money for almost 1 Trillion while Russia or Cina are around 250/300 billions.
By those numbers you quickly understand who started the War in Ukraine or in Gaza or in the Middle Est since 2001, just to not go back too far from now...
And as skeptic people, curios people and people with a deep sense of criticism of the "System" know, the US main goal was to annoy, disturb and check Russia, but the second not even secondary "mission" was to weaken Europe as they did with WWII, and cut the good relations and strong economic ties between Europeans and Russians that grew much within this new century. Because as Russia, as Putin, we Europeans like peace, prosperity, deals and collaborations, not genocides, wars, destruction as Americans (and not only their Government and Agencies) do.
Regarding actual European leaders, I mean, should I laugh or cry or kill them all? Those are just mainly American's puppets as Zelensky is! A Chirac in France or a Schmidt in Germany or a Craxi in Italy, would have shown a big fat middle finger to Trump - Biden actors!
The World has a big problem, and that problem is USA. Do not forget and do not be that ignorant to not know it. Txs!
update - looks like RF did indeed respond to the previous UA strikes on energy infrastructure. RU telegram reports multiple strikes vs natgas distribution equipment near Stryi, 49.3603510, 23.9051056 (source: https://t.me/boris_rozhin/117779). This region happens to be also where Ukraine's largest underground natgas storage is located, the Bilche-Volytsko-Uherske facility, with 17 bcm capacity as of 2021. If that was the target, it would be a big deal. Ukraine's capacious gas storage, inherited from better times, is also used by EU to buffer peak gas demand in winter. This would not be a comfortable game to play for EU, though it can be done. EU itself has a little over 100 bcm storage, UA has 30 ish. The main result is likely to be more natgas price volatility. (reference - https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:2974/1*c4wWh-drtbRLGRhbR00wrg.jpeg - random google image search, no endorsement of the source)
I went by train from Moscow to Odessa thirty one years ago this month with my girlfriend. At that time there was a lot of talk about Russia and Crimea and the Black Sea Fleet. Odessa was run down but still beautiful. I was just a kid and didn't understand much, but when I asked a girl there if she felt she was a Russian or Ukrainian, she said, "I'm an Odessan." I'll bet there are a lot of people who still feel that way. We have to remember that people in other places don't think in the same way we (Americans) do. They have much more familiarity with tragedy for one thing. Unfortunately, we're slowly getting ourselves into a situation where we might gain more personal understanding. Overall, I think the comments I've read here are very insightful. I would like to hear Mr. Bryen's analysis of what's coming for the Baltic states, say, two steps ahead of a Ukrainian capitulation. Any analysis would need to take into account the large resident populations of Russians living there. These countries are brought up as being vulnerable to Russian attack in nearly every utterance of western politicians' exhortation for more money and weapons right now. Is this true, Mr. Bryen?
Actually, I think that the core problem here is that Europe is _not_ facing up to their impending defeat.
While NATO is planning further provocations as indicated here:
https://twitter.com/TheLimpCrane/status/1770503639552991366?t=CW3pCW_Ueg6e-tD6E8rgSg&s=19
Part of me would love to see the French being kicked in their *ss bit then I prefer the killing would finally stopped.
Europe needs to actually stand up and fight.
The US doesn’t; it’s not our problem.
Why is Europe currently losing?
Simple: no problem was ever solved simply by throwing money at it.
No war was ever won without boots on the ground.
Full stop.
I always go back to the 1993 George Soros article about using an Eastern European former Soviet satellite to fight a proxy war with Russia and use their military rather than any NATO forces to defeat Russia and split up Russia. - https://archive.org/details/toward-a-new-world-order
I do feel sorry for all the young Ukrainian's who are being used while they have their patriotism used for less than patriotic goals.
It's funny that the silhouette of a Russian MiG-29 was used in the picture with the Taurus rocket! Yes, I know that this plane is also in the Ukrainian Air Force, but it's still a Russian plane!