Excellent analysis. I suspect the sub-munitions are not really independently targetable, so the MIRV/MARV distinctions are useful.
Some years ago (1988), I was part of an APS arms-control study that looked at missile targeting accuracy. One of our conclusions, although it didn’t get a lot of attention, was that once the accuracy was good enough, you don''t need nuclear weapons, or even explosives, for a lot of missions, the kinetic energy was enough.
The latest I hear is that NATO wants to attack Russia "before" a war starts, and so no longer be a "defensive alliance." Actually NATO has not been a defensive alliance for more than 20 years. It is an expansionist operation to dominate Europe and beyond. The level of rationality among the NATO types is deeply suspect.
...they are gonna send you in Rambo ... with your bare knuckles...to open the cans of whoop-a$$ you're itching to open! (..or...wait and see but they sure aren't gonna tell you or me about it!)
I went with Dr. Postal's belief it was 24 submunitions (based on photography). The reported number is either 4 or 6 submunitions. Sorry for the confusion. (I did pass multiplication in school.)
Your ability to add was why I asked for the reason or the possible brain hiccup.
I saw 2 or 3 presentations by Prof. Postol and noted he made the same (seeming) "error" the first time. (Col Davis) At the point where he said that, he had access to fewer videos of the missile attack. In fact, when I saw the 2nd presentation Dr. Postol asked Nima to send him the videos shown on the show,, because the Prof. did not have them, suggesting the possibility that the hypothesis of only 4 warheads was because of lack of evidence.
I understand there are even more videos around than I have seen.
My crude amateur analysis indicated Russia's reason for using the Oreshknic was to send a signal about the weapon per se, given that they could have used multiple lower range hypersonics to achieve the same destructive effect.
It seems logical (to me) that trying to impress the West with an Intermediate range hypersonic with capacity of 36 warheads, the Russians would load all 36 warheads
...even though they may have felt like being frugal because they thought they'd get enough destruction at depth if only 4 were employed.
In addition, given the sprawling nature of the target, I doubt they would skimp when targeting a facility that was working on weapons that would bite Russia if allowed to be produced.
Indications are that the United States and its poodles are continuing to attack Russia, as they presumably are not concerned that Russia will attack NATO targets.
The Russian demonstration didn’t impress the poodles one bit, if I’m not mistaken they launched French missiles two days after, sending a message back to Putin, “ help us start ww3 “ .
I agree Feral. Destroying Ukraine's war fighting capacity is the fastest way to end this thing. Russia has already taken 400K casualties; achieving Russian war aims will chew up another 200K. Unacceptable and likely to lead to Putin's dismissal.
Unlikely. The West doesn't have the weapons and populations will revolt if dragged into a war they detest. Trump will sit on the sidelines. But hey, not ruling out crazy (or suicidal), perhaps unintended catastrophe.
We've heard that at every stage of escalation. Western populaces are herd animals. The Goering quote never grows old:
"Why, of course, the people don't want war," Goering shrugged. "Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece. Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship."
"There is one difference," I pointed out. "In a democracy the people have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can declare wars."
"Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country."
I don’t think they will. I think Russia will continue to exercise disciplined restraint and keep the conflict confined to Ukraine for as long as they can.
Russia will disabuse them of that presumption as it continues to take out NATO missile bases in the Ukraine, if they continue to launch attacks on Russia.
I would guess that they want to wait until Trump is in office with the hope that he will get his head extracted from his anus by a non-neo-con advisor that will make him understand how close to starting WW3 we are.
So far it looks like he is surrounding himself with more of the same with very few exceptions…Trump is not going to want to be the guy who backed down. His ego is way too big for that…plus he’s impulsive and erratic. Very unpredictable…all bets are off
This is a non nuclear with the range and p power of a nuc. The underground factory was underground just like NATO bases all over Europe. Thus the generals underground will die. We have nothing to counter it except nucs.
I believe this weapon works in similar way as earthquake bombs used by the Royal Air Force during WWII. Accuracy is not terribly important as the ground would transfer energy from warhead to nearby buildings and subterranean structures. Compromising the structural integrity of a building is enough to put it out of use, since people are fearful of being buried alive. Busted water and gas lines would do enormous damage as well.
The thinking behind the British Tallboy was that making citizens homeless would create more problems for the German government than killing them. That logic still holds today, I think. A weapon with low lethality can actually be far more effective than one that kills thousands. No one believes that Russia would nuke London over Ukraine. An attack that instantly render thousands of Londoners unemployed for the foreseeable future? That I can imagine.
Worth noting too, that the attack came in the middle of raputitsa. The ground was likely saturated. Shockwave generated by the penetrators could have triggered soil liquefaction.
Putin went out of his way to spell it out. It's firstly a consequence of US abrogating the INF treaty, and equally a consequence of ongoing de-facto-US/NATO-led attacks on Russia ... the most significant of which have token participation by the proxy government in Kiev, as they're set up to eat the punishment the US/NATO aren't willing to accept. Though the terrorism by Kiev is just as important.
The targets confined to Ukraine, with Putin apparently still unwilling to return the favor in full, since few in NATO and nobody in US leadership care whether Ukraine is destroyed 80% or 90% or 100% ... We'll probably see more provocations. As long as the targets are in Ukraine, the nature of the weapon has only symbolic significance, as far as I can tell. Lateral escalation, to other parts of the world US has made enemies for no good reason, doesn't require fancy weapons either.
Thanks for these detailed explanations. The statement of a defense expert and researcher at the University of Oslo, Fabian Hoffmann, who believes that Oreshnik is not something to worry about, is especially popular on the Internet:
“I would be extremely shocked if this missile system had more than 10% new parts. I think they basically just dismantled the RS-26 or just cannibalized it, and then assembled this new missile with some improvements and a new paint job.”
“…reports say that the glide vehicle released six warhead packages and each package released six submunitions. This means that 24 weapons hit the Dnipro facility.”
There is an old joke: Beat me! says the masochist; No! replies the sadist.
Zelensky is the masochist who wants Russia to beat him so hard that NATO feels obliged to come to his defense -- because Zelensky realizes that he cannot beat Russia on his own. So far, Russia has done a good impersonation of the sadist; recognizing Zelensky's game, Russia has been constrained in its responses to provocations.
Now we hear that Ukrainian missiles are flying into Russia again. The provocations will continue until Russia finally has to beat the masochist -- or until President Trump (hopefully!) changes the game.
Thinking back to 1962 and realizing firsthand the current dangerous situation , it can be argued that history teaches nothing... It is only now that I begin to understand Nikita Khrushchev , who sent missiles to Cuba .
And now - who brings us to the third World War? Faceless "irresponsible politicians" who ...they don 't solve anything , but do they talk a lot ? American politics , on the other hand , cannot be suspected of spontaneity and impulsive execution : these characteristics are easily hung on ...Presidents ! Therefore, I do not see a difference in the US policy of 1962 and the policy of 2024.
It was the correct move, US had been threatening Russia with various forms of nuke delivery since just after WWII. Then would always freak out when the tables turned
"the Oreshnik shows that the Russians have found a way to warn the United States (and the British and French too) that using long range weapons against Russian territory is not a good idea."
Just 'cause it's a bad idea doesn't mean that suicidal crazies in NATO nations won't "call Putin's bluff" on the Oreshnik. With the blessings of an angry Senile US President.
Excellent piece. Given that the target was a Soviet plant designed to keep operating after a nuclear strike, it's safe to assume its facilities were mostly underground, safe from conventional strikes. As such, we’ll not receive much in terms of confirmation to analyze, be it satellite images or photos from the surface. Kinetic projectiles arrived at the premises almost vertically, likely piercing the lower levels.
Still, in the longer video there are two massive explosions about a minute after the hit, and BBC reported other explosions going on for three more hours. It's very telling. With just inert submunitions this weapon is already the Rod from God.
I saw the video as well and your description is accurate. One possible explanation is the Russians also hit the site with conventional missiles too; alternatively the explosions came from the detonation of fuel or explosives at the site.
I'm quite sure it's the latter, after all it makes sense to stockpile good stuff under several layers of concrete. SAMs, other munitions, tank repair facilities with all the greases and fuels, all of those make for a really long and nice fire with occasional explosions once penetrated.
Excellent analysis. I suspect the sub-munitions are not really independently targetable, so the MIRV/MARV distinctions are useful.
Some years ago (1988), I was part of an APS arms-control study that looked at missile targeting accuracy. One of our conclusions, although it didn’t get a lot of attention, was that once the accuracy was good enough, you don''t need nuclear weapons, or even explosives, for a lot of missions, the kinetic energy was enough.
Now, 36 years later…
Your earlier study was correct.
So was Heinlein’s.
In a sane world the Oreshnik strike would be Putin’s effective checkmate on NATO aggression. But, we are not in a sane world.
The latest I hear is that NATO wants to attack Russia "before" a war starts, and so no longer be a "defensive alliance." Actually NATO has not been a defensive alliance for more than 20 years. It is an expansionist operation to dominate Europe and beyond. The level of rationality among the NATO types is deeply suspect.
NATO has up to 55 days to make hay. Too much time for comfort.
Of course NATO has not been a "defensive alliabce" for decades, if it ever was.
What does Russia propose to do about it?
...they are gonna send you in Rambo ... with your bare knuckles...to open the cans of whoop-a$$ you're itching to open! (..or...wait and see but they sure aren't gonna tell you or me about it!)
NATO attacking Russia would lead to the end of our species. The NATO types must exist in an information bubble.
North
Atlantic
Terrorist
Organization
"...the glide vehicle released six warhead packages and each package released six submunitions. This means that 24 weapons hit the Dnipro facility."
6x6=36
or is there a fine point that I don't understand?
I went with Dr. Postal's belief it was 24 submunitions (based on photography). The reported number is either 4 or 6 submunitions. Sorry for the confusion. (I did pass multiplication in school.)
Your ability to add was why I asked for the reason or the possible brain hiccup.
I saw 2 or 3 presentations by Prof. Postol and noted he made the same (seeming) "error" the first time. (Col Davis) At the point where he said that, he had access to fewer videos of the missile attack. In fact, when I saw the 2nd presentation Dr. Postol asked Nima to send him the videos shown on the show,, because the Prof. did not have them, suggesting the possibility that the hypothesis of only 4 warheads was because of lack of evidence.
I understand there are even more videos around than I have seen.
My crude amateur analysis indicated Russia's reason for using the Oreshknic was to send a signal about the weapon per se, given that they could have used multiple lower range hypersonics to achieve the same destructive effect.
It seems logical (to me) that trying to impress the West with an Intermediate range hypersonic with capacity of 36 warheads, the Russians would load all 36 warheads
...even though they may have felt like being frugal because they thought they'd get enough destruction at depth if only 4 were employed.
In addition, given the sprawling nature of the target, I doubt they would skimp when targeting a facility that was working on weapons that would bite Russia if allowed to be produced.
Indications are that the United States and its poodles are continuing to attack Russia, as they presumably are not concerned that Russia will attack NATO targets.
I would hazard a guess that it will send the poodles first...
The Russian demonstration didn’t impress the poodles one bit, if I’m not mistaken they launched French missiles two days after, sending a message back to Putin, “ help us start ww3 “ .
Do you think they might hit the Ukrainian supply routes in Moldova or other Non-NATO countries?
No need. Russia should have destroyed every bridge, rail hub, etc. in Ukraine on the first day of the war.
I agree Feral. Destroying Ukraine's war fighting capacity is the fastest way to end this thing. Russia has already taken 400K casualties; achieving Russian war aims will chew up another 200K. Unacceptable and likely to lead to Putin's dismissal.
The West will step in directly, as Russian indecision makes them smell blood.
Unlikely. The West doesn't have the weapons and populations will revolt if dragged into a war they detest. Trump will sit on the sidelines. But hey, not ruling out crazy (or suicidal), perhaps unintended catastrophe.
We've heard that at every stage of escalation. Western populaces are herd animals. The Goering quote never grows old:
"Why, of course, the people don't want war," Goering shrugged. "Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece. Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship."
"There is one difference," I pointed out. "In a democracy the people have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can declare wars."
"Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country."
I don’t think they will. I think Russia will continue to exercise disciplined restraint and keep the conflict confined to Ukraine for as long as they can.
Russia will disabuse them of that presumption as it continues to take out NATO missile bases in the Ukraine, if they continue to launch attacks on Russia.
They shouldn't need Oreshnik for that, so what is/was Russia waiting for?
I would guess that they want to wait until Trump is in office with the hope that he will get his head extracted from his anus by a non-neo-con advisor that will make him understand how close to starting WW3 we are.
So far it looks like he is surrounding himself with more of the same with very few exceptions…Trump is not going to want to be the guy who backed down. His ego is way too big for that…plus he’s impulsive and erratic. Very unpredictable…all bets are off
Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
As are all the mad dogs posting provocative materials.
Yes, multiple shorter range hypersonic weapons could have been used in the past.
And can be used in the future, although without the ability to hit NATO targets farther away.
This is a non nuclear with the range and p power of a nuc. The underground factory was underground just like NATO bases all over Europe. Thus the generals underground will die. We have nothing to counter it except nucs.
I believe this weapon works in similar way as earthquake bombs used by the Royal Air Force during WWII. Accuracy is not terribly important as the ground would transfer energy from warhead to nearby buildings and subterranean structures. Compromising the structural integrity of a building is enough to put it out of use, since people are fearful of being buried alive. Busted water and gas lines would do enormous damage as well.
The thinking behind the British Tallboy was that making citizens homeless would create more problems for the German government than killing them. That logic still holds today, I think. A weapon with low lethality can actually be far more effective than one that kills thousands. No one believes that Russia would nuke London over Ukraine. An attack that instantly render thousands of Londoners unemployed for the foreseeable future? That I can imagine.
interesting observation
Thanks
Worth noting too, that the attack came in the middle of raputitsa. The ground was likely saturated. Shockwave generated by the penetrators could have triggered soil liquefaction.
Putin went out of his way to spell it out. It's firstly a consequence of US abrogating the INF treaty, and equally a consequence of ongoing de-facto-US/NATO-led attacks on Russia ... the most significant of which have token participation by the proxy government in Kiev, as they're set up to eat the punishment the US/NATO aren't willing to accept. Though the terrorism by Kiev is just as important.
The targets confined to Ukraine, with Putin apparently still unwilling to return the favor in full, since few in NATO and nobody in US leadership care whether Ukraine is destroyed 80% or 90% or 100% ... We'll probably see more provocations. As long as the targets are in Ukraine, the nature of the weapon has only symbolic significance, as far as I can tell. Lateral escalation, to other parts of the world US has made enemies for no good reason, doesn't require fancy weapons either.
From Rusia with love!
The Oreshnik is like a battle field nuke, only without the drawbacks of a nuke.
Thanks for these detailed explanations. The statement of a defense expert and researcher at the University of Oslo, Fabian Hoffmann, who believes that Oreshnik is not something to worry about, is especially popular on the Internet:
“I would be extremely shocked if this missile system had more than 10% new parts. I think they basically just dismantled the RS-26 or just cannibalized it, and then assembled this new missile with some improvements and a new paint job.”
Not much of an expert.
So when an older missile blows his stupid ass to bits, he will probably feel vindicated.
“…reports say that the glide vehicle released six warhead packages and each package released six submunitions. This means that 24 weapons hit the Dnipro facility.”
6x6 = 36, not 24. 🤓
see my explanation in other posts
There is an old joke: Beat me! says the masochist; No! replies the sadist.
Zelensky is the masochist who wants Russia to beat him so hard that NATO feels obliged to come to his defense -- because Zelensky realizes that he cannot beat Russia on his own. So far, Russia has done a good impersonation of the sadist; recognizing Zelensky's game, Russia has been constrained in its responses to provocations.
Now we hear that Ukrainian missiles are flying into Russia again. The provocations will continue until Russia finally has to beat the masochist -- or until President Trump (hopefully!) changes the game.
Thinking back to 1962 and realizing firsthand the current dangerous situation , it can be argued that history teaches nothing... It is only now that I begin to understand Nikita Khrushchev , who sent missiles to Cuba .
He almost caused WW3.
And now - who brings us to the third World War? Faceless "irresponsible politicians" who ...they don 't solve anything , but do they talk a lot ? American politics , on the other hand , cannot be suspected of spontaneity and impulsive execution : these characteristics are easily hung on ...Presidents ! Therefore, I do not see a difference in the US policy of 1962 and the policy of 2024.
It was the correct move, US had been threatening Russia with various forms of nuke delivery since just after WWII. Then would always freak out when the tables turned
"the Oreshnik shows that the Russians have found a way to warn the United States (and the British and French too) that using long range weapons against Russian territory is not a good idea."
Just 'cause it's a bad idea doesn't mean that suicidal crazies in NATO nations won't "call Putin's bluff" on the Oreshnik. With the blessings of an angry Senile US President.
Excellent piece. Given that the target was a Soviet plant designed to keep operating after a nuclear strike, it's safe to assume its facilities were mostly underground, safe from conventional strikes. As such, we’ll not receive much in terms of confirmation to analyze, be it satellite images or photos from the surface. Kinetic projectiles arrived at the premises almost vertically, likely piercing the lower levels.
Still, in the longer video there are two massive explosions about a minute after the hit, and BBC reported other explosions going on for three more hours. It's very telling. With just inert submunitions this weapon is already the Rod from God.
I saw the video as well and your description is accurate. One possible explanation is the Russians also hit the site with conventional missiles too; alternatively the explosions came from the detonation of fuel or explosives at the site.
I'm quite sure it's the latter, after all it makes sense to stockpile good stuff under several layers of concrete. SAMs, other munitions, tank repair facilities with all the greases and fuels, all of those make for a really long and nice fire with occasional explosions once penetrated.
That would be 36 submunitions
I used the lower number as it is between 4 and 6 submunitions
I think Simplicious is citing 36…just fyi
It is Bulava. Not Bulova.
Thanks -I will correct the spelling. I was thinking of my old watch.