To use the vernacular of the youngsters of today to describe this post: Nailed it!
Watching this conflict over the past 18 months, a few things became clear to me. With the quickly advancing technology in weapons & surveillance all around the world, in many nations, no nation is "out of reach". The lack of high-quality, integrated, layered air defense here in the US is concerning to me, your point is well taken. Never underestimate your adversaries. You can hate them all you want to, shout all the usual political & social insults about them if it makes you feel superior or comfortable, but feeling superior does not translate into superiority on the battlefield. So much of what I hear from the folks in Washington, London, Brussels, et al are just the same old stereotypes and tropes; Russians are all uneducated peasants without indoor plumbing and the Chinese can only make cheap trinkets for mass consumption and steal technology. Add to that silly type of thinking the profits over efficiency mindset in the MIC money-go-round and we end up with the type of reckless decision making that you've repeatedly hammered home. The people in positions of power in the US/UK/EU/NATO seem to be trapped in some collective fever-dream where the world never changes and they are never wrong. Its absolutely divorced from reality. Narrative over strategy. As Bette Davis once said in a film, "buckle up, its going to be a bumpy flight". Its going to be a very hard landing for these folks & what worries me is what will their reaction be? Unfortunately, we're all strapped in with them. Unfortunately I'll be sitting in economy, where my last meal will be peanuts & pretzels, lol.
The US (NATO) create weapon systems to generate profits; Russia creates weapons to efficiently kill. For example: Ford Class carriers vs. Gorshkov Class frigates, armed with Zircon. The US is fighting the last "real war," from 80 years ago.
The US and NATO deliberately and relentlessly pursued a conflict with both Russia and China for no valid reason at all.
In any sane world, the recognition that stopping to do so and starting to honestly look for a peaceful longterm modus vivendi is long overdue would be the single most important lesson.
Stopping to dream about complete global full spectrum dominance and unlimited unipolar power like some sort of psychotic supervillain would be the necessary first step.
"raising the question of why the US and NATO were willing to raid its already paltry stocks for Ukraine"
An excellent question, but I believe the answer is that they thought the Russians would fold like a cheap shirt following sanctions, "superior" NATO war doctrine, western 4CISR, and the plucky Ukro-Nazi offensives.
excellent overview and summation stephen.. thanks...
another way of looking at nato - to keep russia down, germany out and the usa on top... so long as europe plays along with this - and poland gets a special nod for being such a good usa servant - things might continue on like this for some time.. this cold war, mccarthy era relic of an organization needs to be done away with, but the military contractors and politicians who keep them in the money - will not allow it... it is a big ponzi scheme to support the military and banking complex, but the cosmetics on its public facade say different... that is not a winning hand as i see it..
There is no tank made that can withstand an artillery shell hit. It's also good to remember that there are a number of weapons systems that have not been supplied to Ukraine, since there's no reason to give Russia an opportunity to develop defensive options for stopping them.
Somebody, Russia, China, some unknown unknown will sense our weakness and strike us hard realizing that oceans are no longer good defensive barriers. Then wokeness will prove our ultimate downfall and what’s left will start over. We’ll be long gone of course.
In the not too distant future, after the deaths of additional hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians (and Russians), Ukraine will find peace by yielding Crimea and the Russian speaking Donbas. This along with the now clearly dubious assurance of NATO to guard against future Russian invasions. It’s the only possible solution.
An analysis that needed to be written--and read by those will not want to read it and likely won't.
2 minor points:
a. why mention only European arms factories being attacked in a general war?--all US dynamite, for example, is manufactured at one aging plant.
b. 'when the Ukrainian adventure ends'--if NATO continues to demonstrate its lack of readiness--indeed an emerging inability to even get ready to improve readiness (is it because the MIC lacks a business model for sustainment or massive capital investments that may offer unsatisfactory returns compared to F-35s and gold toilet seats?), then shouldn't NATO be more concerned that Russia may simply decide they may never face a less competent, less prepared version of NATO, & that now's the time to end this 70-year Nazi/NATO problem once and for all?
To use the vernacular of the youngsters of today to describe this post: Nailed it!
Watching this conflict over the past 18 months, a few things became clear to me. With the quickly advancing technology in weapons & surveillance all around the world, in many nations, no nation is "out of reach". The lack of high-quality, integrated, layered air defense here in the US is concerning to me, your point is well taken. Never underestimate your adversaries. You can hate them all you want to, shout all the usual political & social insults about them if it makes you feel superior or comfortable, but feeling superior does not translate into superiority on the battlefield. So much of what I hear from the folks in Washington, London, Brussels, et al are just the same old stereotypes and tropes; Russians are all uneducated peasants without indoor plumbing and the Chinese can only make cheap trinkets for mass consumption and steal technology. Add to that silly type of thinking the profits over efficiency mindset in the MIC money-go-round and we end up with the type of reckless decision making that you've repeatedly hammered home. The people in positions of power in the US/UK/EU/NATO seem to be trapped in some collective fever-dream where the world never changes and they are never wrong. Its absolutely divorced from reality. Narrative over strategy. As Bette Davis once said in a film, "buckle up, its going to be a bumpy flight". Its going to be a very hard landing for these folks & what worries me is what will their reaction be? Unfortunately, we're all strapped in with them. Unfortunately I'll be sitting in economy, where my last meal will be peanuts & pretzels, lol.
Also, my condolences on the loss of your friend.
The US (NATO) create weapon systems to generate profits; Russia creates weapons to efficiently kill. For example: Ford Class carriers vs. Gorshkov Class frigates, armed with Zircon. The US is fighting the last "real war," from 80 years ago.
The US and NATO deliberately and relentlessly pursued a conflict with both Russia and China for no valid reason at all.
In any sane world, the recognition that stopping to do so and starting to honestly look for a peaceful longterm modus vivendi is long overdue would be the single most important lesson.
Stopping to dream about complete global full spectrum dominance and unlimited unipolar power like some sort of psychotic supervillain would be the necessary first step.
"raising the question of why the US and NATO were willing to raid its already paltry stocks for Ukraine"
An excellent question, but I believe the answer is that they thought the Russians would fold like a cheap shirt following sanctions, "superior" NATO war doctrine, western 4CISR, and the plucky Ukro-Nazi offensives.
excellent overview and summation stephen.. thanks...
another way of looking at nato - to keep russia down, germany out and the usa on top... so long as europe plays along with this - and poland gets a special nod for being such a good usa servant - things might continue on like this for some time.. this cold war, mccarthy era relic of an organization needs to be done away with, but the military contractors and politicians who keep them in the money - will not allow it... it is a big ponzi scheme to support the military and banking complex, but the cosmetics on its public facade say different... that is not a winning hand as i see it..
There is no tank made that can withstand an artillery shell hit. It's also good to remember that there are a number of weapons systems that have not been supplied to Ukraine, since there's no reason to give Russia an opportunity to develop defensive options for stopping them.
Zelensky recently talked about upcoming quinquennial elections (he said in 2019 he would serve only one term).
It would be difficult to sell a pause now as better than Minsk II, so perhaps he'll step aside for some 'National Unity Front' next year.
He's said it would also depend on his family.
Zelenska has had only one Vogue cover since the war began, and their daughter is approaching Ivy League age.
Somebody, Russia, China, some unknown unknown will sense our weakness and strike us hard realizing that oceans are no longer good defensive barriers. Then wokeness will prove our ultimate downfall and what’s left will start over. We’ll be long gone of course.
In the not too distant future, after the deaths of additional hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians (and Russians), Ukraine will find peace by yielding Crimea and the Russian speaking Donbas. This along with the now clearly dubious assurance of NATO to guard against future Russian invasions. It’s the only possible solution.
The chasm between the real story now and the official version seems greater than at any point since Comical Ali, or maybe General Westmoreland.
Reznikov's outrage at the idea of negotiations on The Guardian today seems a bit of a giveaway about proposed giveaways.
With the failure to force a salient below Orikhiv, even throwing in Challengers, it looks like we're entering a new sort of choreography.
An analysis that needed to be written--and read by those will not want to read it and likely won't.
2 minor points:
a. why mention only European arms factories being attacked in a general war?--all US dynamite, for example, is manufactured at one aging plant.
b. 'when the Ukrainian adventure ends'--if NATO continues to demonstrate its lack of readiness--indeed an emerging inability to even get ready to improve readiness (is it because the MIC lacks a business model for sustainment or massive capital investments that may offer unsatisfactory returns compared to F-35s and gold toilet seats?), then shouldn't NATO be more concerned that Russia may simply decide they may never face a less competent, less prepared version of NATO, & that now's the time to end this 70-year Nazi/NATO problem once and for all?
Excellent analysis.
Eventually, will NATO/US decide using nuclear weapons is the only solution? Kings over the ash heaps?