A report appeared today on a Telegram channel (@Soloviev Live) reporting a briefing given by Russian Lt. General Igor Kirilov. Kirilov is the head of the Radiation Chemical and Biological troops of the Russian army.
Kirilov says that Ukrainian security services are carrying out sabotage and terrorist attacks against the personnel of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, something that even the IAEA has documented.
The general also reports that the Ukrainians attempted to capture the Kursk nuclear power plant, but failed.
Lt. General Kirilov also says that there are Ukrainian internal reports that make two claims.
One Ukrainian claim is that any "accident" at the Kursk NP would only leak radiation on Russian territory. (Given Kursk's proximity to Chernobyl, which is around 100 km or 62 miles, Ukraine's analysis, if accurately reported, is nonsense.)
Kursk's existing nuclear reactors are of the Chernobyl type, meaning that they do not have the protection of containment domes. There are new model reactors under construction at Kursk which will replace the older reactors. The new reactors do have containment domes, but they are not yet in service.
The general's briefing says that any radiation leak at Kursk "could lead to the spread of radiation across a significant part of Europe." He thus has sent a warning to Europe and to NATO.
The second claim is about a Ukrainian "dirty bomb." A dirty bomb is a conventional bomb that includes highly radioactive materials which could contaminate large areas. The general says that Ukrainian training manuals also cover "dirty bombs." He does not explain whether the training manuals are intended to be defensive or offensive. (For the record, Russia does not produce radiation bombs, although it could do so.)
Kirilov claims that Kiev is "delaying IAEA reports on the amount of radioactive waste in the Chernobyl exclusion zone." The obvious implication is that some of the Chernobyl waste could go into radiation bombs.
This is not the first time Russia has warned about Ukrainian dirty bombs.
Different observations and possibilities come to mind in the nuclear threat briefing by Lt. General Kirilov.
The first, and most obviously, is that the Ukrainians have repeatedly threatened the nuclear power plant complex at Zaporizhzhya and have used a car bomb to kill at least one of the employees there. Ukraine also attacked and destroyed a power substation and hit a cooling tower at the Zaporizhzhya NPP. Likewise it is true that Ukraine tried to make a run to capture the Kursk NPP and, after that failed, they fired at least two suicide drones at the Kursk NPP.
A second observation is about the possible use of nuclear weapons in the Ukraine conflict. There has been much talk and hand-wringing that Russia might resort to the use of tactical nuclear weapons, especially if Ukraine strikes deep into Russia with missiles supplied by the United States and Europe. The Russians have issued very strong warnings they will take severe action that could extend to NATO countries, and some Russians have urged the use of nuclear weapons as well. Newspapers in Europe have published "reports" on what a Russian strike would look like if London was hit by Russian nuclear weapons. An even more scary report was published in September by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. So far neither the US or the Germans have sent long range missiles to Kiev.
On the battlefield there now is a general consensus that the Russians are on the offensive. While the word "winning" is not used yet by NATO, there is deep concern about Ukraine's ability to prevent a Russian military victory. From this perspective, Russia has no need to employ nuclear weapons.
However, as the survival of Ukraine's ruling regime becomes doubtful, Ukraine is trying to find a way to draw in the US (ostensibly also NATO as well, although it is unlikely the other NATO countries will fight or that the US could get any approval under Article V of the NATO Treaty, which requires unanimity). Ukraine faces a significant deficit in troops, and is talking about lowering the draft age and including women in the draft. Unfortunately there is no administrative mechanism available to accomplish either goal in the short term. US entry into the war is vital to Zelensky and his minions. Indeed, one of the reasons for the intense focus on troops from North Korea allegedly fighting on the Kursk front (which is Russian territory) is to try and drag the Americans into the war with US troops and US aircraft. In turn this creates a very big difficulty, even for Biden who may want to do this as a parting gift to the next US president. The US will need the permission of the Germans and Poles to carry off any operation. It can't be done from the UK. It is highly unlikely any of them will agree because they will be targeted by the Russians. Even if permission was given, it would require a logistical buildup that would take months to achieve. By that time Ukraine might be toast.
There are other scenarios, but none of them are a slam dunk to save Zelensky.
Are radiation bombs part of Ukraine's strategy if, lacking an attempted American bailout, Ukraine is left on its own? The Russian general is worried about the possibility. Given the fact that Russia is now giving briefings on the matter should be concerning, extremely so.
The Russians ought to make it perfectly clear that any individual involved in this type of shenanigan will not be able to hide anywhere in the world, nor will their families, and they'll be hunted down like Wael Zwaiter, et al.
There is no way to draw in the NATO.
If they use a dirty bomb, Washington would suddenly have a very good reason to jettison the Ukraine.