Biden and his entire agenda w/r/t Ukraine and China are in deep lame duck territory. It is surprising that any country is willing to double-down and ruin a key regional relationship when the overall strategy of the US w/r/t Russia and China is set to be dramatically changed.
Just shows you this is a complete nothingburger. The Russian money in question is being used as collateral to a loan. It would only be touched if the G7 countries force Ukraine into default by refusing to roll the loan over. Not going to happen.
As I said, it is not a real loan and it will never be paid back, which means the guarantee money will be spent. $3.3 billion is not exactly a nothingburger.
Sovereign bonds generally include a cross-acceleration clause. Defaulting against one creditor means defaulting against all creditors. We can't let that happen since that would mean massive losses immediately materializing in European banks exposed to Ukrainian debt. We'll keep lending money to the country so it can repay us. Or outright forgive the loan.
I think I do. Trump is not a messianic liberal. He doesn't care if China has hegemony over Myanmar or Taiwan. He is a capitalist. He wants the American relationship with China to provide economic benefits to the US. Nothing more, nothing less. He might feel sad if Japan were to fall under Chinese influence, but as long as the US got what it needed from Japan, he'd accept it.
Trump's team, however, are regime-Americans and think differently. They understand (correctly) that several hundred years of ideological, military, political, and economic hegemony is coming to an end. These people are messianic and they are very dangerous. Think of how close they got! Had they gotten another Yeltsin and another Hu Jintao then Russia and China would have been folded into the American system and we actually might have had the End of History. We must understand that the American ruling class is having an emotional meltdown for a reason.
Strange behavior by the Japanese. I seem to remember reading that Japan had sought and received approval to exempt itself from sanctions against Russia in order to enable the purchase of gas from the Sakhalin project. Japan claimed that this was vital for its energy supply.
Japan's population isn't willing to die for its country (only 14 percent are, according to the most recent survey, Asiatimes reported about it (compare that with 16% in Germany and over 60% in Russia)). Countries with low fertility rates and weak values aren't willing to sacrifice their generation for the benefit of the elites and the military industrial complex. It's clear that the elite doesn't care about its population. Just look at Germany who still doesn't want to find out who took our Nordstream or Ukraine. In Ukraine, indeed an entire generation of men, perhaps even two generations, is being wiped out. For absolutely nothing.
Even if Ukraine wins, somehow miraculously, there won't be anyone left to rebuild the country. It's a strange idea of freedom the West has.
I don't put much weight on that survey. It is effectively a proxy for the extent to which men feel their political system is worth defending. Liberal democracy is not worth defending.
We must not consider popular will as a component of state behavior. The "elites" do what they want, without concern for the population. They then use their media to achieve the consensus within the society that they need. At any time and in every society, a plurality of people simply believe what TV tells them, and social pressure can be used to keep nearly all of the rest in line.
Especially for Japan. There has been polls saying the percentage of Japanese people who trust the major media in Japan, and the number is 6%. Japanese police dramas are full of newspapers misreporting crime events, police officials hide the crime stats, and politicians counting on police officials for clean up. Japanese people are certainly aware all of these feudal lords era behavior hidden behind the facade of liberal democracy.
Abe was not obedient to the US master and not willing to bend for China either. Judging the Japanese government behavior difference before and after Abe's death, I would claim certain three-letter agency should not be overlooked.
I think Russia and N. Korea just concluded a mutual defense pact. N. Korea offered to send its troops to Ukraine. If I were Japan, I'd be inclined to go where the future is- BRICS+. The U.S. and EU have nothing to offer but wars, sanctions, threats, exploitation and more wars. I would not trust the U.S. for any long term commitment because our word, written or oral, means nothing. In the, "rules based order" we do what we damn well please as it suits our needs. I condemn Biden for stealing another nation's funds. It's just one more reason to motivate countries to abandon the west.
Kinda a shift from snipers pairs on the roof, female security agents and how they behave in the eye of the storm. Nobody discusses false flag attack under Iranian flag. And we still don't know who was the party responsible that killed Kennedy. Moving on: The Great state of Russia, The Motherland is still at the state of war with Japan. That fact was declared by Truman with the broad smile on his face in summer of 1945. Then he dropped a bomb or two on Japan. And sent marines to document the level of devastation. Americans have a tricky relationship to sin. So whatever Japanese government came up with after Romanian statewomen photoshoot at the Kuril Islands -
Archipelago in Russia, is irrelevant. Weighting your options in the terms of gaz, oil prices is past century. We are all rational people or so it seems but there is no reasonable explanation for quite some time now.
Japan has fallen far behind in ballistic missile defenses, recently rejecting the idea of buying Aegis Ashore, probably the best defense against ballistic missiles currently available." Why? Can you provide a deeper dive on this?
They claimed having the missiles on land was too dangerous to the local population. (The missiles might crash into a town or city, but they don't say that about Patriot or Himars, so it is bullshit.) The real truth is they thought having them would provoke China, so they dropped the plan.
Japan has been under U.S. occupation since 1945. Japan does what the United States tells it to do. The saddest thing is that sooner or later the United States simply spends all its servants, Ukraine and Georgia are examples of this. However, Georgia was able to get rid of the dictate of the United States and retained its independence.
This is a good write up on behind-the-scenes activities that can have potentially catastrophic impact on Japan and Asia. Another story is world G7 governments using GDP to fund social programs rather than defense since the US was the 800 pound gorilla in the room to take up for them. If Biden gets into lame duck category it is unknown what damage the regime could do to our allies. Japan is rewriting or ignoring its constitution and the role of the JSDF. Going from a defensive role to offensive will take years, and I’m not sure we have many before the next major war.
There are also Japanese people who truly believe Japan should keep a minimal force such that it cannot be abused by future politicians. The same as the small government approach in the US.
I think there are sentiments as you describe, but it is also true that Japan has since the end of WW2 been 100% depending on the US for security. When that happens you essentially are on welfare and feel no compelling need to do anything.
It depends on what you meant by 100% depending on the US. For a person who has no enemy, of course he naturally thinks he needs minimal protection. Japan's relatively low crime stats (despite some cosmetics to cover blemishes) also influences people's attitude (easier to feel secure and forget the nation is treading dangerous water). There are indeed very strong pro-defense factions in Japan. However, the bulk of them are considered to be rebirth of the pre-WW2 military-nationalism, only a smaller part assess the need for more defense spending based on the capabilities of potential enemies, rather than judgments about potential enemy's intention. In addition, Japan is building up is navy, although not as fast as Abe had advocated. Army is relatively weak and suffer the most from the recruiting problem. Air force and Navy are more up to par. However, as you pointed out earlier, JSDF is tuned toward national defense, not any kind of exploitation overseas. However, Taiwan is a different matter for Japan.
I have over the years and in official positions dealt with Japan on security issues and I must say that Japanese officials in the past were negative about security and considered the US to be annoying and unhelpful while they went about cheating on critical security rules such as technology transfers to Russia and China. I am not persuaded that Japan thinks much about security and generally thinks it has some sort of natural immunity. I don't see how this is a carryover from Japanese militarism and WW2, but perhaps it is in some manner. One of the influencing factors has been general prosperity which has immunized Japanese leaders about any possible threats.
Biden and his entire agenda w/r/t Ukraine and China are in deep lame duck territory. It is surprising that any country is willing to double-down and ruin a key regional relationship when the overall strategy of the US w/r/t Russia and China is set to be dramatically changed.
I agree.
Agree but result is the same and to money will be gone
Just shows you this is a complete nothingburger. The Russian money in question is being used as collateral to a loan. It would only be touched if the G7 countries force Ukraine into default by refusing to roll the loan over. Not going to happen.
As I said, it is not a real loan and it will never be paid back, which means the guarantee money will be spent. $3.3 billion is not exactly a nothingburger.
Sovereign bonds generally include a cross-acceleration clause. Defaulting against one creditor means defaulting against all creditors. We can't let that happen since that would mean massive losses immediately materializing in European banks exposed to Ukrainian debt. We'll keep lending money to the country so it can repay us. Or outright forgive the loan.
The Chinese don't understand Trump's plans for the Pacific, and nor do I.
I think I do. Trump is not a messianic liberal. He doesn't care if China has hegemony over Myanmar or Taiwan. He is a capitalist. He wants the American relationship with China to provide economic benefits to the US. Nothing more, nothing less. He might feel sad if Japan were to fall under Chinese influence, but as long as the US got what it needed from Japan, he'd accept it.
Trump's team, however, are regime-Americans and think differently. They understand (correctly) that several hundred years of ideological, military, political, and economic hegemony is coming to an end. These people are messianic and they are very dangerous. Think of how close they got! Had they gotten another Yeltsin and another Hu Jintao then Russia and China would have been folded into the American system and we actually might have had the End of History. We must understand that the American ruling class is having an emotional meltdown for a reason.
Strange behavior by the Japanese. I seem to remember reading that Japan had sought and received approval to exempt itself from sanctions against Russia in order to enable the purchase of gas from the Sakhalin project. Japan claimed that this was vital for its energy supply.
exactly right
Japan's population isn't willing to die for its country (only 14 percent are, according to the most recent survey, Asiatimes reported about it (compare that with 16% in Germany and over 60% in Russia)). Countries with low fertility rates and weak values aren't willing to sacrifice their generation for the benefit of the elites and the military industrial complex. It's clear that the elite doesn't care about its population. Just look at Germany who still doesn't want to find out who took our Nordstream or Ukraine. In Ukraine, indeed an entire generation of men, perhaps even two generations, is being wiped out. For absolutely nothing.
Even if Ukraine wins, somehow miraculously, there won't be anyone left to rebuild the country. It's a strange idea of freedom the West has.
I don't put much weight on that survey. It is effectively a proxy for the extent to which men feel their political system is worth defending. Liberal democracy is not worth defending.
We must not consider popular will as a component of state behavior. The "elites" do what they want, without concern for the population. They then use their media to achieve the consensus within the society that they need. At any time and in every society, a plurality of people simply believe what TV tells them, and social pressure can be used to keep nearly all of the rest in line.
Especially for Japan. There has been polls saying the percentage of Japanese people who trust the major media in Japan, and the number is 6%. Japanese police dramas are full of newspapers misreporting crime events, police officials hide the crime stats, and politicians counting on police officials for clean up. Japanese people are certainly aware all of these feudal lords era behavior hidden behind the facade of liberal democracy.
Abe was murdered according to Trump, so this theft by the deep state doesn't surprise me. Putin is showing restraint, but Biden keeps poking the bear.
Abe was not obedient to the US master and not willing to bend for China either. Judging the Japanese government behavior difference before and after Abe's death, I would claim certain three-letter agency should not be overlooked.
You can never go wrong being suspicious of the CIA.
I think Russia and N. Korea just concluded a mutual defense pact. N. Korea offered to send its troops to Ukraine. If I were Japan, I'd be inclined to go where the future is- BRICS+. The U.S. and EU have nothing to offer but wars, sanctions, threats, exploitation and more wars. I would not trust the U.S. for any long term commitment because our word, written or oral, means nothing. In the, "rules based order" we do what we damn well please as it suits our needs. I condemn Biden for stealing another nation's funds. It's just one more reason to motivate countries to abandon the west.
Great article!
I have shared the link on A Skeptic
A Skeptic War Reports -
https://askeptic.substack.com/
Many thanks!
Maybe they should erect a monument to their barbarism in Nanjing?
Kinda a shift from snipers pairs on the roof, female security agents and how they behave in the eye of the storm. Nobody discusses false flag attack under Iranian flag. And we still don't know who was the party responsible that killed Kennedy. Moving on: The Great state of Russia, The Motherland is still at the state of war with Japan. That fact was declared by Truman with the broad smile on his face in summer of 1945. Then he dropped a bomb or two on Japan. And sent marines to document the level of devastation. Americans have a tricky relationship to sin. So whatever Japanese government came up with after Romanian statewomen photoshoot at the Kuril Islands -
Archipelago in Russia, is irrelevant. Weighting your options in the terms of gaz, oil prices is past century. We are all rational people or so it seems but there is no reasonable explanation for quite some time now.
Japan has fallen far behind in ballistic missile defenses, recently rejecting the idea of buying Aegis Ashore, probably the best defense against ballistic missiles currently available." Why? Can you provide a deeper dive on this?
They claimed having the missiles on land was too dangerous to the local population. (The missiles might crash into a town or city, but they don't say that about Patriot or Himars, so it is bullshit.) The real truth is they thought having them would provoke China, so they dropped the plan.
Japan has been under U.S. occupation since 1945. Japan does what the United States tells it to do. The saddest thing is that sooner or later the United States simply spends all its servants, Ukraine and Georgia are examples of this. However, Georgia was able to get rid of the dictate of the United States and retained its independence.
This is a good write up on behind-the-scenes activities that can have potentially catastrophic impact on Japan and Asia. Another story is world G7 governments using GDP to fund social programs rather than defense since the US was the 800 pound gorilla in the room to take up for them. If Biden gets into lame duck category it is unknown what damage the regime could do to our allies. Japan is rewriting or ignoring its constitution and the role of the JSDF. Going from a defensive role to offensive will take years, and I’m not sure we have many before the next major war.
Due to the constitution that was forced onto Japan after WW2, if it weren't for American defense of their islands, they wouldn't have any.
They have gone beyond the Constitution in many instances so it is not the legal constraint but instead an excuse to do little or nothing.
There are also Japanese people who truly believe Japan should keep a minimal force such that it cannot be abused by future politicians. The same as the small government approach in the US.
I think there are sentiments as you describe, but it is also true that Japan has since the end of WW2 been 100% depending on the US for security. When that happens you essentially are on welfare and feel no compelling need to do anything.
It depends on what you meant by 100% depending on the US. For a person who has no enemy, of course he naturally thinks he needs minimal protection. Japan's relatively low crime stats (despite some cosmetics to cover blemishes) also influences people's attitude (easier to feel secure and forget the nation is treading dangerous water). There are indeed very strong pro-defense factions in Japan. However, the bulk of them are considered to be rebirth of the pre-WW2 military-nationalism, only a smaller part assess the need for more defense spending based on the capabilities of potential enemies, rather than judgments about potential enemy's intention. In addition, Japan is building up is navy, although not as fast as Abe had advocated. Army is relatively weak and suffer the most from the recruiting problem. Air force and Navy are more up to par. However, as you pointed out earlier, JSDF is tuned toward national defense, not any kind of exploitation overseas. However, Taiwan is a different matter for Japan.
I have over the years and in official positions dealt with Japan on security issues and I must say that Japanese officials in the past were negative about security and considered the US to be annoying and unhelpful while they went about cheating on critical security rules such as technology transfers to Russia and China. I am not persuaded that Japan thinks much about security and generally thinks it has some sort of natural immunity. I don't see how this is a carryover from Japanese militarism and WW2, but perhaps it is in some manner. One of the influencing factors has been general prosperity which has immunized Japanese leaders about any possible threats.
Do you believe that the US Constitution applies to Japan?
I am talking about Japan's Constitution and the permitted levels of the Self Defense forces.
The Court is the SCOTUS, specified by capitalization.
The Constitution is the US Constitution, specified likewise.
If we won't enforce the limits that we specified, they can't be expected to do it for us.