A general war means nuclear exchange. Russia will not sit still and watch how Ukraine or NATO will bomb their country to pieces. That's good night for Europe and nuclear Holocaust isn't far away from that. It just shows that the US is the biggest threat to world peace.
People look at the trench warfare in the First World War and think how stupid it was because it was inconsequential, but all those lives were lost by the end. That was because a big battle would result in a movement of only a few hundred yards. What they don't realize is that teeny weeny bit of territorial gain would sometimes cost as many as fifty thousand lives on one or both sides in a big push.
Nothing much seems to be happening on the Eastern front in Ukraine because not much territory is being exchanged. But plenty is happening. The Ukrainian forces are staying in a fixed postion as are the Russians. Seventy five percent of troop losses in a ground battle are due to artillery. The Russians have a five to one artillery advantage over the Ukrainians. That means that one can expect a five to one mortality rate in a artillery battle with troops in fixed positions. The Russians are happy to have the Ukrainians try and hold on to places like Soledar and Bakhnut. The Russians are advancing half mile by half mile. But the Ukrainians are losing troops by the thousands, stuck in place trying to prevent it.
It is not American areo-space military against third world forces American style. It is NATO against a near peer with one of the best anti-air systems in the world. It is all about ground troops protected by artillery and very close air support which the Russians have in abundance and the Ukrainians do not. We know they don't have it because the Ukrainians are screaming at NATO to give them more or they will lose the war.
Yes, there is a way out, but it will come at a dear price to the Ukrainian people. So far, they seem willing to pay the bill.
The tiny Taliban pushed Russia out of Afghanistan. The tiny Taliban pushed the U.S. out of Afghanistan. The tiny North Vietnamese, one of the smallest poorest countries on the planet, pushed the world's leading superpower out of Vietnam. The way these tiny forces overcame overwhelming odds was simple. They wanted victory more than their opponent.
The Ukrainians appear willing to choose death over slavery. The Russian soldiers want nothing other than to go home.
The way out is to bleed, bleed, bleed the Russian forces and economy until the price becomes too great for them to bear, just as happened in Afghanistan. We have the power to do this, because the combined GDP's of the Western allies is somewhere around 20 to 30 times the GDP of Russia.
The way out is to talk over Putin's head to the rest of Russia's elites, and offer them carrot and stick choices. Get rid of Putin, and we can talk about returning to the previous status quo. Fail to get rid of Putin, and we in the West will relentlessly destroy your business empires, ruble, by ruble, by ruble, until you have nothing.
Any negotiation or deal will just prolong the madness. This war won't end until Putin is dead. Like many a gambler, he's rolled the dice one too many times.
That is delusional. First of all Russians support Putin because the Western leaders were dumb enough to make this about Russia, by stating Russia has to be brought to its knees and the Russian economy will be cut in half.
Secondly, Russia isn't fighting this war to gain territory. They are destroying the Ukrainian military, killing soldiers and knocking out military equipment and the Ukrainian men power isn't unlimited.
Thirdly, NATO's capacities to help are limited. Just look at the amount of tanks they can ship. It's nothing and won't be a game changer on a 1000km long front. That's the danger here. If you can't deliver enough weapons, you will need to escalate with different weapons aka long range systems deep into Russia. What stops Russia from using tactical nukes then?
And how are negotians prolonging this mess? lol but on the other hand delivering weapons means peace for you? That's absurd. Russia's demands before the war were not unreasonable. Ukraine stays out of NATO, and Donbass where mostly ethnic Russians live becomes aurhononous. What's wrong with that? It's much better than ten thousands of death people. My aunt lives in Ukraine and there are rumours more than 300k died. One the war is over, the West will see the death toll and will need to ask itself if it was worth it.
You actually have no idea what the Russian people want, because in psychopathic dictatorships accurate polling is impossible. Anyway, the Russian people don't matter much, I was referencing elites, people with lots of money and connections.
This is about Russia, or more precisely Putin. It is Putin who decided to cross internationally recognized boundaries and unleash a wave of unspeakable war crime horror upon the Ukrainian people.
Yes, NATO's capacities are limited, like that of every other nation or group of nations on Earth. But they are not as limited as Russia's, because as already explained, the GDP of the Western allies dwarfs Russia's GDP. Look it up, don't believe me, see for yourself.
Why should Russia have a say in whether Ukraine joins NATO or the EU? Isn't that up to Ukraine and the NATO members? Why should Russia have a say in what happens within the borders of Ukraine?
Let's try your theory on for size. Alex, you must remove all the furniture from your home, or I will kill your family and burn your house down. What's wrong with that Alex? Hey, I'm being reasonable! You just need to submit to my will, that's all. What's the big deal??
The West didn't start this war. It's up to the Ukrainians to decide if and when they want to stop fighting. If they decide to negotiate with Putin, I'll support that too.
Phil, you've done a good job reiterating the explanation that all the Western governments and media have given for the war.
Perhaps it would be helpful to think of it this way. Suppose that the Warsaw Pact was still in place. Now suppose the the Warsaw Pact decided that Canada should join. If a government was elected in Canada that was against joining then Russia would overthrow that government and install a government that was pro-Warsaw Pact. Russia began covert "investments" in Canada, creating dozens of biolabs (many dealing with old bioweapons). Russia began to send weapons into Canada, preparing them for a possible war against America. (And if the President of Russia even questioned the policy, he would be impeached for asking.). Then Russia started sending Warsaw Pact troops into Canada and installing missiles right on the Canada/US border with the explanation that Canada needed to be defended. And the US President said that having Canada join the Warsaw Pact was a red line. And every US President had said that since 1992. And the US President said that those missiles were like a knife to the throat of America. And the US President pleaded for peace and for Canada not to join the Warsaw Pact, simply to be neutral. But all to no avail. Because after all, Canada is a sovereign country and they can join the Warsaw Pact if they like, right?
Think of what we would do if Russia took such actions in Canada. We nearly had a nuclear war when the Soviets tried to move missiles into Cuba.
Try to see the other side. Try to understand. There can be no peace without understanding.
@KLG, this is not a war between the West and Russia. It's a war between the West and Putin. You want me to "see the other side" being made by a chronically lying psychopath currently engaged in mass murder on an industrial scale.
You're points are excellent when decent people get in to disputes with other decent people. That's not at all what's happening in Ukraine.
You make good points, except that they are rationalizing the imposition of unspeakable horrors upon the Ukrainian people. A knife fight in a back alley is currently underway in Ukraine, and somebody is going to live, and somebody is going to die. It's not a nuanced situation. So, I'm standing with the Ukrainian people. They want to fight rather than become slaves, and I support that decision.
As to understanding peace, that's a great topic. I'm writing about it pretty much non-stop on my blog right now. If you should wish to contribute, and debate too, no problem, I'd welcome that. Here's why we don't have peace, and what we can do about that.
I have family in Russia and Ukraine, so I get a good sense of what Russian people want, whether they live in Ukraine or Russia. But eben I admit that I don't know everything because I can't speak to all Russians. However they have rallied behind Putin because the West made this about Russia.
It's just the Western people who claim to know the truth and ignore simple facts in case it doesn't fit the narrative.
The West started it by helping to overthrow an elected government in 2014. The conflict started even before that. Look at the colour revolution in 2008. The US bragged about investing billions in regime change in Ukraine.
What has GDP to due with manufacturing weapons? Lately an article came out that Ukraine uses more artillery shells in a day than the UK produces in a month and the West can't build more capacity. High GDP numbers alone don't build weapons. Just look at Germany, they can't even manufacture enough ammo for the equipment they sent to Ukraine. They don't even have a real army anymore.
I think your posts show that you still lack to understand the conflict. One reason is that MSM isn't given us the full picture. They lied about Iraq, Syria and Lybia but somehow we believe everything about Ukraine is true.
The West did not make this about Russia. Putin made this about Russia. Putin, leader of Russia, made the decision to start this war.
Putin is a mob boss, a gangster, a mass murderer, a psychopath. He kills anybody who gets in his way. He and his gang of thugs are stealing billions upon billions from the Russian people. That's the problem. There's a mad dog killer on the loose, and he has to be put down.
Stop trying to be sophisticated. You're no good at it. Keep it simple. If Putin put a knife to your throat, what are you going to do? Blame it on Santa Claus?
These are the stated goals of Zelensky which Biden said as his official policy is something he backs and will back for as long as it takes.
That Russia should surrender. They should implement not just regime change but replacement of the governing system. They should disband their army. They should turn over all members of the current regime to the International Court for trial for war crimes. They should expect to have their country dismembered. They should be expelled from the U.N. security council. They should pay massive reparations to Ukraine. And of course, all the Russian speakers in Ukraine should be denied _their_ freedom and that _they_ should be permanently enslaved to whatever fate Ukraine wants to inflict on them.
I can assure you that Russians think that this is very much about Russia. If you didn't have so much contempt for Russians you would understand why they feel that way. Not that you would necessarily agree but at least see that the average Russian thinks that NATO (America) is out to get them.
I'm not Russian and don't live in Russia. But _I_ believe that NATO (America) is out to get them because western leaders keep saying that they are. In fact, Western leaders keep talking about what a wonderful job they are doing at the task of getting Russia. Every a couple of months they come up with a new scheme that will destroy Russia (because the last ones didn't work the way that was expected)
@ron - Your post suffers from the usual confusion that Putin = Russia.
Nobody is out to get Russia. What the west wants for Russia is that it become a free, democratic, prosperous welcomed member of Europe. There is exactly no evidence since 1941 that anybody wants to conquer Russia.
The West is out to get Putin. Here's why. He's a psychopath with nuclear weapons.
Putin is not defending Russia. He could give a shit about the Russian people, as proven by the fact that he has spent his career stealing billions from them. Putin is defending Putin. Putin is in Ukraine because if Ukraine becomes a free prosperous democracy it will only be a matter of time before the Russian people start asking, "Why can't we have that?"
If the average Russian thinks NATO is out to get them that's because Putin controls the Russian media and he's been feeding the Russian people a steady stream of lies for years. Have you noticed that the Russian government lies every time it opens it's mouth?
First of all, he's also the man who stabilized Russia after it was exploited in the 90s. So, the Russian people are grateful for what he did for Russia.
Secondly, after all the Western propaganda it's easy to say he is evil and irrational but doesn't help to solve this conflict. Your hate towards Putin doesn't help the conflict in any way.
The Germans say, the dumbest sheep choose their own butcher and thus every country deserve its leader. The US had Trump and now Biden. But that's their problem. Thus whether Putin remains in power or not is for the Russians to decide and for nobody else.
Blind hatred like displayed by your posts doesn't help anyone here. It just causes more deaths on all sides.
Phil, I wonder if you are aware that the Observer Mission of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) documented over 2000 artillery strikes on East Ukraine (the area occupied by ethnic Russians) by the Ukrainian army in February 2022 BEFORE the Russian invasion? What if Russian forces invaded to protect those ethnic Russians who live in Ukraine? What if the Ukrainian army was bombing innocent civilians?
A general war means nuclear exchange. Russia will not sit still and watch how Ukraine or NATO will bomb their country to pieces. That's good night for Europe and nuclear Holocaust isn't far away from that. It just shows that the US is the biggest threat to world peace.
People look at the trench warfare in the First World War and think how stupid it was because it was inconsequential, but all those lives were lost by the end. That was because a big battle would result in a movement of only a few hundred yards. What they don't realize is that teeny weeny bit of territorial gain would sometimes cost as many as fifty thousand lives on one or both sides in a big push.
Nothing much seems to be happening on the Eastern front in Ukraine because not much territory is being exchanged. But plenty is happening. The Ukrainian forces are staying in a fixed postion as are the Russians. Seventy five percent of troop losses in a ground battle are due to artillery. The Russians have a five to one artillery advantage over the Ukrainians. That means that one can expect a five to one mortality rate in a artillery battle with troops in fixed positions. The Russians are happy to have the Ukrainians try and hold on to places like Soledar and Bakhnut. The Russians are advancing half mile by half mile. But the Ukrainians are losing troops by the thousands, stuck in place trying to prevent it.
It is not American areo-space military against third world forces American style. It is NATO against a near peer with one of the best anti-air systems in the world. It is all about ground troops protected by artillery and very close air support which the Russians have in abundance and the Ukrainians do not. We know they don't have it because the Ukrainians are screaming at NATO to give them more or they will lose the war.
The Evil people are sitting in Washington.
Yes, there is a way out, but it will come at a dear price to the Ukrainian people. So far, they seem willing to pay the bill.
The tiny Taliban pushed Russia out of Afghanistan. The tiny Taliban pushed the U.S. out of Afghanistan. The tiny North Vietnamese, one of the smallest poorest countries on the planet, pushed the world's leading superpower out of Vietnam. The way these tiny forces overcame overwhelming odds was simple. They wanted victory more than their opponent.
The Ukrainians appear willing to choose death over slavery. The Russian soldiers want nothing other than to go home.
The way out is to bleed, bleed, bleed the Russian forces and economy until the price becomes too great for them to bear, just as happened in Afghanistan. We have the power to do this, because the combined GDP's of the Western allies is somewhere around 20 to 30 times the GDP of Russia.
The way out is to talk over Putin's head to the rest of Russia's elites, and offer them carrot and stick choices. Get rid of Putin, and we can talk about returning to the previous status quo. Fail to get rid of Putin, and we in the West will relentlessly destroy your business empires, ruble, by ruble, by ruble, until you have nothing.
Any negotiation or deal will just prolong the madness. This war won't end until Putin is dead. Like many a gambler, he's rolled the dice one too many times.
That is delusional. First of all Russians support Putin because the Western leaders were dumb enough to make this about Russia, by stating Russia has to be brought to its knees and the Russian economy will be cut in half.
Secondly, Russia isn't fighting this war to gain territory. They are destroying the Ukrainian military, killing soldiers and knocking out military equipment and the Ukrainian men power isn't unlimited.
Thirdly, NATO's capacities to help are limited. Just look at the amount of tanks they can ship. It's nothing and won't be a game changer on a 1000km long front. That's the danger here. If you can't deliver enough weapons, you will need to escalate with different weapons aka long range systems deep into Russia. What stops Russia from using tactical nukes then?
And how are negotians prolonging this mess? lol but on the other hand delivering weapons means peace for you? That's absurd. Russia's demands before the war were not unreasonable. Ukraine stays out of NATO, and Donbass where mostly ethnic Russians live becomes aurhononous. What's wrong with that? It's much better than ten thousands of death people. My aunt lives in Ukraine and there are rumours more than 300k died. One the war is over, the West will see the death toll and will need to ask itself if it was worth it.
You actually have no idea what the Russian people want, because in psychopathic dictatorships accurate polling is impossible. Anyway, the Russian people don't matter much, I was referencing elites, people with lots of money and connections.
This is about Russia, or more precisely Putin. It is Putin who decided to cross internationally recognized boundaries and unleash a wave of unspeakable war crime horror upon the Ukrainian people.
Yes, NATO's capacities are limited, like that of every other nation or group of nations on Earth. But they are not as limited as Russia's, because as already explained, the GDP of the Western allies dwarfs Russia's GDP. Look it up, don't believe me, see for yourself.
Why should Russia have a say in whether Ukraine joins NATO or the EU? Isn't that up to Ukraine and the NATO members? Why should Russia have a say in what happens within the borders of Ukraine?
Let's try your theory on for size. Alex, you must remove all the furniture from your home, or I will kill your family and burn your house down. What's wrong with that Alex? Hey, I'm being reasonable! You just need to submit to my will, that's all. What's the big deal??
The West didn't start this war. It's up to the Ukrainians to decide if and when they want to stop fighting. If they decide to negotiate with Putin, I'll support that too.
Phil, you've done a good job reiterating the explanation that all the Western governments and media have given for the war.
Perhaps it would be helpful to think of it this way. Suppose that the Warsaw Pact was still in place. Now suppose the the Warsaw Pact decided that Canada should join. If a government was elected in Canada that was against joining then Russia would overthrow that government and install a government that was pro-Warsaw Pact. Russia began covert "investments" in Canada, creating dozens of biolabs (many dealing with old bioweapons). Russia began to send weapons into Canada, preparing them for a possible war against America. (And if the President of Russia even questioned the policy, he would be impeached for asking.). Then Russia started sending Warsaw Pact troops into Canada and installing missiles right on the Canada/US border with the explanation that Canada needed to be defended. And the US President said that having Canada join the Warsaw Pact was a red line. And every US President had said that since 1992. And the US President said that those missiles were like a knife to the throat of America. And the US President pleaded for peace and for Canada not to join the Warsaw Pact, simply to be neutral. But all to no avail. Because after all, Canada is a sovereign country and they can join the Warsaw Pact if they like, right?
Think of what we would do if Russia took such actions in Canada. We nearly had a nuclear war when the Soviets tried to move missiles into Cuba.
Try to see the other side. Try to understand. There can be no peace without understanding.
@KLG, this is not a war between the West and Russia. It's a war between the West and Putin. You want me to "see the other side" being made by a chronically lying psychopath currently engaged in mass murder on an industrial scale.
You're points are excellent when decent people get in to disputes with other decent people. That's not at all what's happening in Ukraine.
@KLG, Thanks for an intelligent post.
You make good points, except that they are rationalizing the imposition of unspeakable horrors upon the Ukrainian people. A knife fight in a back alley is currently underway in Ukraine, and somebody is going to live, and somebody is going to die. It's not a nuanced situation. So, I'm standing with the Ukrainian people. They want to fight rather than become slaves, and I support that decision.
As to understanding peace, that's a great topic. I'm writing about it pretty much non-stop on my blog right now. If you should wish to contribute, and debate too, no problem, I'd welcome that. Here's why we don't have peace, and what we can do about that.
https://www.tannytalk.com/p/world-peace-table-of-contents
I have family in Russia and Ukraine, so I get a good sense of what Russian people want, whether they live in Ukraine or Russia. But eben I admit that I don't know everything because I can't speak to all Russians. However they have rallied behind Putin because the West made this about Russia.
It's just the Western people who claim to know the truth and ignore simple facts in case it doesn't fit the narrative.
The West started it by helping to overthrow an elected government in 2014. The conflict started even before that. Look at the colour revolution in 2008. The US bragged about investing billions in regime change in Ukraine.
What has GDP to due with manufacturing weapons? Lately an article came out that Ukraine uses more artillery shells in a day than the UK produces in a month and the West can't build more capacity. High GDP numbers alone don't build weapons. Just look at Germany, they can't even manufacture enough ammo for the equipment they sent to Ukraine. They don't even have a real army anymore.
I think your posts show that you still lack to understand the conflict. One reason is that MSM isn't given us the full picture. They lied about Iraq, Syria and Lybia but somehow we believe everything about Ukraine is true.
Kind regards from Canada.
The West did not make this about Russia. Putin made this about Russia. Putin, leader of Russia, made the decision to start this war.
Putin is a mob boss, a gangster, a mass murderer, a psychopath. He kills anybody who gets in his way. He and his gang of thugs are stealing billions upon billions from the Russian people. That's the problem. There's a mad dog killer on the loose, and he has to be put down.
Stop trying to be sophisticated. You're no good at it. Keep it simple. If Putin put a knife to your throat, what are you going to do? Blame it on Santa Claus?
These are the stated goals of Zelensky which Biden said as his official policy is something he backs and will back for as long as it takes.
That Russia should surrender. They should implement not just regime change but replacement of the governing system. They should disband their army. They should turn over all members of the current regime to the International Court for trial for war crimes. They should expect to have their country dismembered. They should be expelled from the U.N. security council. They should pay massive reparations to Ukraine. And of course, all the Russian speakers in Ukraine should be denied _their_ freedom and that _they_ should be permanently enslaved to whatever fate Ukraine wants to inflict on them.
I can assure you that Russians think that this is very much about Russia. If you didn't have so much contempt for Russians you would understand why they feel that way. Not that you would necessarily agree but at least see that the average Russian thinks that NATO (America) is out to get them.
I'm not Russian and don't live in Russia. But _I_ believe that NATO (America) is out to get them because western leaders keep saying that they are. In fact, Western leaders keep talking about what a wonderful job they are doing at the task of getting Russia. Every a couple of months they come up with a new scheme that will destroy Russia (because the last ones didn't work the way that was expected)
@ron - Your post suffers from the usual confusion that Putin = Russia.
Nobody is out to get Russia. What the west wants for Russia is that it become a free, democratic, prosperous welcomed member of Europe. There is exactly no evidence since 1941 that anybody wants to conquer Russia.
The West is out to get Putin. Here's why. He's a psychopath with nuclear weapons.
Putin is not defending Russia. He could give a shit about the Russian people, as proven by the fact that he has spent his career stealing billions from them. Putin is defending Putin. Putin is in Ukraine because if Ukraine becomes a free prosperous democracy it will only be a matter of time before the Russian people start asking, "Why can't we have that?"
If the average Russian thinks NATO is out to get them that's because Putin controls the Russian media and he's been feeding the Russian people a steady stream of lies for years. Have you noticed that the Russian government lies every time it opens it's mouth?
Try not to get sucked in to the lie machine Ron.
"Oh what horror. He's such an evil man".
First of all, he's also the man who stabilized Russia after it was exploited in the 90s. So, the Russian people are grateful for what he did for Russia.
Secondly, after all the Western propaganda it's easy to say he is evil and irrational but doesn't help to solve this conflict. Your hate towards Putin doesn't help the conflict in any way.
The Germans say, the dumbest sheep choose their own butcher and thus every country deserve its leader. The US had Trump and now Biden. But that's their problem. Thus whether Putin remains in power or not is for the Russians to decide and for nobody else.
Blind hatred like displayed by your posts doesn't help anyone here. It just causes more deaths on all sides.
If you'd like to move to Russia Alex I have no objection.
Phil, I wonder if you are aware that the Observer Mission of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) documented over 2000 artillery strikes on East Ukraine (the area occupied by ethnic Russians) by the Ukrainian army in February 2022 BEFORE the Russian invasion? What if Russian forces invaded to protect those ethnic Russians who live in Ukraine? What if the Ukrainian army was bombing innocent civilians?