I think we are kidding ourselves if we think the dam destruction was caused by floating landmines. The video shows a large blast followed quickly by two secondary blasts. Yes it is possible, but so is a lightening strike.
I don't agree --not that the Russians are above such things, but for practical reasons. The Russians had to step back from their defensive lines around Kherson because of the flooding, and that makes it possible for the Ukrainians to redeploy at least six brigades --the 21st, 22nd, 117th and 118th mechanized brigades and the 41st and 38th Marine Brigades. These brigades almost certainly will be moved to reenforce the Ukrainian offensive now underway in the Vremevka area where the fighting is now heavy and where Ukraine needs high grade reinforcements, not inexperienced forces lacking Western equipment. Had the dam not broke, the Ukrainians would have to worry about a Russian counteroffensive at Kherson and in the direction of Odessa. I think the Russians would like to isolate Odessa and force a surrender. It seems that is now off the table thanks to the dam explosion. For the above reasons, I believe Ukraine blew the dam.
I guess anything is possible. In German we say, one has seen horses puke. However, looking at other historic dam failures, it is unlikely that only the upper portion stays effected. The grinding of the enormous floods will create a deep canal. We see failure in the middle at the gates, on the generator houses, and the entire south side at the ship lock is also gone now, and probably was not concreted. The lake will have a small fraction left once it drained mostly around some watering holes that lay deeper. The much bigger question for me whether this was a concerted nation state act, or whether some more-or-less independent group as we have seen on the Wagner rumors from May that the Washington Post reported on providing position data about the Russian military to the Ukrainians, or even what we see in Belgorod or with North Stream. Where we are at wild speculations, also possible that the dam was mined, just like many other structures in the war zone right now, and some guard was taking a cigarette break - David Spade in the movie Joe Dirt comes to mind....
One second thought, it could also be a progressing collapse, mitigated by drifting landmines. If you look at pictures from earlier this month, you can see that there was some progressing damage on the 2 or 3 gates north of the generator house. You can see in the water stream, that quiet significant amount of water was pouring down, perhaps more than just if the gates were normally opened. It even washed out the road surface in the days before the breach. The cause may go back to an explosion from Nov 11th. Also videos of various smaller explosion after the breach circulate that appear to be exploding landmines. Once streaming water gets in contact with a soft material, it is eroded very quickly. What we cannot see in the moment is whether the dam under the gate structure got damaged, which could by strong evidence for a manmade demise. This part is still under water, and we can only make assumptions right now based on the wave pattern.
It's probably best to go with the engineers on this one rather than anonymous Russian milbloggers. NYT study shows Russia almost certainly blew up the dam, which was the most obvious explanation from the start.
Floating mines are way too little to damage such a damn. Nonsense. Same for a HIMARS strike. It was an explosion from inside with an amount of explosives that ukrainian combat divers could never bring in. It was was the Russians.
I have heard the report of an explosion from the inside but I don't believe it and it is an assertion being made without proof. My belief, based on the video of the explosions (there were 3 of them) is that the dam weas hit by huge explosions from either an underwater or semisubmersible vehicle, or vehicles. This is similar to what the Ukrainians tried at the Kerch Straits Bridge but failed to knock out one of the supports. This time, in my opinion, they used more explosives.
My thoughts too....this flooding is worth many more billions of US dollars to be corrupted and stolen far beyond any FEMA payments here in the US...and of course there will be moneys paid out to people not living in the region too....and of course a replacement dam paid by the US will be more billions paid to corrupt politicians.
Good write up. The whodunit question may be answered by another: who benefits? Your post posits this clearly: Ukraine most likely is guilty in order to damage the nuke plant and maybe hinder a Russia counter offensive.
Simplicius has videos from downstream of the dam showing explosions on the water (after the dam let go). Funny thing is that the videos did not have the incoming whoosh of a motar, missile, or bomb; nor a single frame showing a projectile. A going theory is that floating mines were used. This would explain the damage to the top portion and resultant subsurface explosions in the video.
Mr. Kotler, your use of the term "so called" is insulting. I would not write that way about anyone and you should not either. My report was objective and well researched. I asked a question but provided no precise answer, and I did so because the press reflection the Ukrainian claims (completely without any evidence) that the Russians did it. Your attempt to claim some strange motives for my reporting is, well, ridiculous.
I don't need your advice. You don't read very carefully. I said "maybe" and not certainly. I don't think it is true that "evidence always pointed to the Russians." I think the evidence could point to both sides. In any case. your excuse that I should be "thick skinned" does not absolve you from making insults. Reasonable people can state their facts objectively, but I am not going to tolerate imputations about my background, my ideology or any other nonsense.
I think you might be a hack analyst that has fallen for Kermlin propaganda without realizing it. You see what I did there, by your logic you shouldn't be offended as I said "might".
You write 3/4 of the article explaining why you think Ukraine did it with a handwavy sentence at the end essentially saying "well maybe Russia did it, but I think not" and then protest that as objective? You dismiss the entirety of western media, but then cite Russian media as being more correct? It's just laughably bad.
I'm not saying Ukraine always tells the truth, but the fact you routinely seem to trust Russian sources more says a lot about your intellect and your ability to swift through BS and I'm not just talking about this article.
Then you have the audacity to get offended when people call you out on your nonsense. Get over yourself. You're the Tucker Carlson of analysts and that's not a compliment although you probably think it is.
I still think the Ukrainians blew it up. I don't routinely trust Russian sources and I try and assess as carefully as I can. I do find your comments extremely offensive. If you have a real argument you want to make, go ahead. You try and attack me without offering a single real argument for your position. That is probably because you don't have any.
NYT did some modelling with the help of some engineers and structural specialists and determined it's almost certain Russia did it with an internal explosion.
I think we are kidding ourselves if we think the dam destruction was caused by floating landmines. The video shows a large blast followed quickly by two secondary blasts. Yes it is possible, but so is a lightening strike.
The problem I have with floating mines is how did they find the center, unless they were under control which means they were guided
Nonsense. It was Kremlin 101 -- designed to thwart Ukraine's counteroffensive in the south and blame Ukraine for "barbarity".
I don't agree --not that the Russians are above such things, but for practical reasons. The Russians had to step back from their defensive lines around Kherson because of the flooding, and that makes it possible for the Ukrainians to redeploy at least six brigades --the 21st, 22nd, 117th and 118th mechanized brigades and the 41st and 38th Marine Brigades. These brigades almost certainly will be moved to reenforce the Ukrainian offensive now underway in the Vremevka area where the fighting is now heavy and where Ukraine needs high grade reinforcements, not inexperienced forces lacking Western equipment. Had the dam not broke, the Ukrainians would have to worry about a Russian counteroffensive at Kherson and in the direction of Odessa. I think the Russians would like to isolate Odessa and force a surrender. It seems that is now off the table thanks to the dam explosion. For the above reasons, I believe Ukraine blew the dam.
I guess anything is possible. In German we say, one has seen horses puke. However, looking at other historic dam failures, it is unlikely that only the upper portion stays effected. The grinding of the enormous floods will create a deep canal. We see failure in the middle at the gates, on the generator houses, and the entire south side at the ship lock is also gone now, and probably was not concreted. The lake will have a small fraction left once it drained mostly around some watering holes that lay deeper. The much bigger question for me whether this was a concerted nation state act, or whether some more-or-less independent group as we have seen on the Wagner rumors from May that the Washington Post reported on providing position data about the Russian military to the Ukrainians, or even what we see in Belgorod or with North Stream. Where we are at wild speculations, also possible that the dam was mined, just like many other structures in the war zone right now, and some guard was taking a cigarette break - David Spade in the movie Joe Dirt comes to mind....
Anything is possible.
One second thought, it could also be a progressing collapse, mitigated by drifting landmines. If you look at pictures from earlier this month, you can see that there was some progressing damage on the 2 or 3 gates north of the generator house. You can see in the water stream, that quiet significant amount of water was pouring down, perhaps more than just if the gates were normally opened. It even washed out the road surface in the days before the breach. The cause may go back to an explosion from Nov 11th. Also videos of various smaller explosion after the breach circulate that appear to be exploding landmines. Once streaming water gets in contact with a soft material, it is eroded very quickly. What we cannot see in the moment is whether the dam under the gate structure got damaged, which could by strong evidence for a manmade demise. This part is still under water, and we can only make assumptions right now based on the wave pattern.
Obviously, you try to sell conspiracy theories for your own ego or benefit. Shameful.
It's probably best to go with the engineers on this one rather than anonymous Russian milbloggers. NYT study shows Russia almost certainly blew up the dam, which was the most obvious explanation from the start.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/06/16/world/europe/ukraine-kakhovka-dam-collapse.html
I read this whole post and still don't understand your argument.
Floating mines are way too little to damage such a damn. Nonsense. Same for a HIMARS strike. It was an explosion from inside with an amount of explosives that ukrainian combat divers could never bring in. It was was the Russians.
I have heard the report of an explosion from the inside but I don't believe it and it is an assertion being made without proof. My belief, based on the video of the explosions (there were 3 of them) is that the dam weas hit by huge explosions from either an underwater or semisubmersible vehicle, or vehicles. This is similar to what the Ukrainians tried at the Kerch Straits Bridge but failed to knock out one of the supports. This time, in my opinion, they used more explosives.
My thoughts too....this flooding is worth many more billions of US dollars to be corrupted and stolen far beyond any FEMA payments here in the US...and of course there will be moneys paid out to people not living in the region too....and of course a replacement dam paid by the US will be more billions paid to corrupt politicians.
Good write up. The whodunit question may be answered by another: who benefits? Your post posits this clearly: Ukraine most likely is guilty in order to damage the nuke plant and maybe hinder a Russia counter offensive.
Simplicius has videos from downstream of the dam showing explosions on the water (after the dam let go). Funny thing is that the videos did not have the incoming whoosh of a motar, missile, or bomb; nor a single frame showing a projectile. A going theory is that floating mines were used. This would explain the damage to the top portion and resultant subsurface explosions in the video.
Mr. Kotler, your use of the term "so called" is insulting. I would not write that way about anyone and you should not either. My report was objective and well researched. I asked a question but provided no precise answer, and I did so because the press reflection the Ukrainian claims (completely without any evidence) that the Russians did it. Your attempt to claim some strange motives for my reporting is, well, ridiculous.
I don't need your advice. You don't read very carefully. I said "maybe" and not certainly. I don't think it is true that "evidence always pointed to the Russians." I think the evidence could point to both sides. In any case. your excuse that I should be "thick skinned" does not absolve you from making insults. Reasonable people can state their facts objectively, but I am not going to tolerate imputations about my background, my ideology or any other nonsense.
I think you might be a hack analyst that has fallen for Kermlin propaganda without realizing it. You see what I did there, by your logic you shouldn't be offended as I said "might".
You write 3/4 of the article explaining why you think Ukraine did it with a handwavy sentence at the end essentially saying "well maybe Russia did it, but I think not" and then protest that as objective? You dismiss the entirety of western media, but then cite Russian media as being more correct? It's just laughably bad.
I'm not saying Ukraine always tells the truth, but the fact you routinely seem to trust Russian sources more says a lot about your intellect and your ability to swift through BS and I'm not just talking about this article.
Then you have the audacity to get offended when people call you out on your nonsense. Get over yourself. You're the Tucker Carlson of analysts and that's not a compliment although you probably think it is.
Dear Chris
I still think the Ukrainians blew it up. I don't routinely trust Russian sources and I try and assess as carefully as I can. I do find your comments extremely offensive. If you have a real argument you want to make, go ahead. You try and attack me without offering a single real argument for your position. That is probably because you don't have any.
NYT did some modelling with the help of some engineers and structural specialists and determined it's almost certain Russia did it with an internal explosion.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/06/16/world/europe/ukraine-kakhovka-dam-collapse.html
Which was always the most plausible explanation.
Sorry buddy.