NATO is flirting with war and extinction. France is now "officially" sending troops to Ukraine (they have been there for some time) and NATO countries are demanding strikes deep inside Russia. Meanwhile the US has secretly made a "policy shift" that somewhat falls short of what Zelensky wanted, but opens the door to deep strikes by the US on Russian territory.
The extinction of NATO is necessary to stop this madness! Western countries are obviously ruled by psychopaths and at this point the only rational actors are Putin and Orban.
Biden is experienced in governing, diplomacy, and understands personal loss and really cares about the people he governs. He is coherant, wise, and has a healthy sense of humor. His administration is salvaging Americans who are suffering RepubliCONs abuse of power over the last several decades. Biden doesn't lie. The contrast to Putin is stark. Its time to put Putin out of business
Sheep spend their entire lives in fear of the wolf only to be eaten by the shepherd; once you understand this statement the game changes and you will begin to understand politics.
The psychopaths are in the Russian government, starting with Putin and his pet sewer rat, Medvedev, barking and burping out threats. Russia can be stopped, will be stopped. It is a 2nd rate military, as has been proven over almost 2.5 yrs of war (that was meant to last about a month as per the fools in Russian leadership. No negotiations with the Russians is the best policy right now, unless they start to act like civilized human beings and start withdrawing their troops from Ukraine and giving up stolen Ukrainian territory. How difficult it is for decent Russians to be stuck with a leadership that brings only shame and disgrace to Russian identity.
I have said this all along. Nobody is flirting with nuclear war.
The sociopaths who rule the West would without hesitation annihilate us all before they give up their perches. They are not flirting. They know full well what they are doing.
Putin is the only sociopath who talks about nuclear war and Russia is the country which has endangered nuclear power plants in the Ukraine. I wouldn't mind if the Kremlin was wiped off the face of the Earth, because Russia has caused nothing but misery and disaster, but luckily for you I'm not at all influencial.
Funny, none other than Lindsey Graham talked yesterday about nuclear war. As to why you think Russia would target nuclear plants under Russian control, well, that's your pathology.
Do you also through out such wild ethnic slurs about Jews?
Well at least Bidon isn't selling or stealing White House inventory, fixtures and furniture. And as for folding Ukraine, I'm not so sure about that. As long as we are predicting the future, I predict that Russian chaos will be it's undoing and Ukraine will not only take back it's post WWII original boundaries, but so will all the other countries bordering Russia and will also regain their pre WWII territories that Russia stole.. The Fins will go shopping in St Petersburg like Americans do I Mexico. Russia will forfiet that diamond mine SE of Moscow. China will take care of the rest.
Complete madness. How many weapons did Biden declare would not be sent to Ukraine and then released them. Bombing Rafah is a red line. It was white. Every day Biden's press spokespeople lie to us. The reporters know it and the press spokespeople know the reporters know it. It's a farce. Why do they carry out the charade. Only a few, far the minority, push back. The hands go up with no follow up. Mainstream media is in bed with the government. Putin has given stark warnings in press conferences about retaliation. He asked if the U.S. wants to escalate to strategic weapons. Did you see front page banner headlines in the NYT about that? Nuclear war? The NYT gave plenty of space gloating over Trump's conviction for paying off a prostitute to keep silent. Give him prison time. But no condemnation of Biden's genocide or the 500,000+ Ukrainians shoved through the meat grinder in a war that was completely avoidable. These deaths demonstrate how Biden and both parties in Congress have no regard for human lives. Grasping at hegemony is all that matters. How does hegemony benefit the vast majority of Americans? It denies us a better quality of life.
That will be part of the propaganda by mainstream media making excuses for the unnecessary war. Every knowledgeable commentator in independent news media are in agreement: the war cannot be reversed, nor was it ever possible to defeat the Russians, because of the vast differences in forces and population between the two countries. You can send as many weapons as you like to Ukraine but it won't change the outcome. Ukraine has no more soldiers to fight. That is the limiting factor. They have no control over the airspace. Their military will collapse by the end of the summer provided the U.S. does not ignore Putin's latest red lines announced publicly and privately to the U.S., UK and France. The war has demonstrated that the U.S. and NATO lack the industrial capacity to resupply our military during war. And the trillions we've spent on high tech weapons don't deliver. The Russians have quickly adapted to make them ineffectual. Mao was right. We are a paper tiger. We cannot possibly defend Taiwan nor have the right to. Surface naval ships are obsolete due to missiles and drones. War with China will quickly devolve to nuclear weapons because that's all the U.S. has. Russia will join with China in any war against the latter because the U.S. is their common aggressor. China and Russia want peaceful engagement. But the U.S. only deals in threats or actual violence and is unable to spell the word diplomacy. And the majority of countries are sick of it. The majority of nations will back BRICS. Wake up while we still have a small chance to survive.
Really foolish post. You have to draw the line. You have a rabid, predatory power with delusions of "Russia World", "Historic Russian Lands", "Protecting Russian Speakers". Garbage. Russia can be defeated, will be defeated, should be defeated if the collective west decides to do it. They are a 2nd rate military power in comparison. Russia could be a great and civilized country if it ever did anything about it's psycho leadership. Been that way for 100+ years. Tragic.
More nonsense. Russia is the pre-eminent land power in the world at present, the collective West has no chance in a head on fight. Not to mention that China, NK and Iran would join the fray, the best the West could hope for would be escalation to nuclear and mutual destruction.
Don't rely on me. Take the time to listen to the following people on YouTube: retired CIA analysts: Larry Johnson, Phil Geraldi and Ray McGovern; retired Col. Douglas MacGregor; retired Col Larry Wilkerson, former Ambassador Chas Freeman; and former Marine intelligence officer and nuclear weapons inspector Scott Ritter. These people are very experienced in Russian/Soviet affairs and Russian/Soviet history. If you only listen to one, listen to retired Col. Douglas MacGregor. He is intellectually brilliant. Especially watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2hKBus5CKlI&t=1254s
Not give in to morally perverted leadership that governs Russia. They have added rape, murder, theft, kidnapping, torcher to the Russian identity. A real tragedy for a country for such a beautiful country with a rich culture and a creative people. Clean up the sewer that is the Kremlin! The Russians can do this, should do this, themselves. In the meantime. the west needs to be vigilant and strong. Do this and the Russian military is not a real rival.
Even if post-1991 Russia really were guilty of every last thing it was accused of (it isn't, but bear with me) that would be a pimple on the ass of the West's crimes in Iraq alone.
That was clearly a fake video and proven fake the same day, the same was pushed showing a French soldier that was even more blatantly set up and laughable
I got it translated with some difficulty. I'm always open to new data. This was not terribly convincing but if I knew more about digital matters it would help. Edited? Possibly but there is much speculation and no "proof". I can accept that but only within the context of WHO is making the claim. Had it come from a non involved non NATO source I would find that more reassuring. It remains, in my mind as plausibly a real event thats authentic. But I will keep my mind open.
Let me add this. We know NATO troops are there. We know some have been slain. We know more are on the way, including the French. So, in the end, does it matter one way or the other? The facts on the ground says its possible and in the future, probable.
“We know NATO troops are there” how do we know? I’d guarantee they aren’t and if so, are the types that dress in civilian clothes and in ones and twos giving advice and guidance and certainly not anywhere near the front line.
Most Ukrainians wear stuff bought or donated. Half the Ukrainians I’ve seen have US flags on their helmets, especially the younger ones, they suffer from the “want to look cool” disease like most militaries these days. Doesn’t mean they’re American does it. The video in question shows a guy laying on the floor in a trench. No NATO country would risk one of our own in a trench. All of Klitschko’s bodyguard team wore Norwegian uniforms with Norwegian flags on them. They weren’t Norwegians they were Ukrainians with donated uniforms. Seeing with your own eyes doesn’t always tell what’s there. The French Foreign Legion soldiers being thrown around is the same deal but worse. Mortar with no base plate and the guy is wearing a big scraggy beard. No Legionnaire on OP’s or not would wear one unless he’s the pioneer. It’s just propaganda and we’ll be seeing a hell of a lot more of it in the coming months
I'm not sure about that one but I saw one where a Russian soldier entered a dugout with a 2 dead soldiers, one with a French tri-color badge and the other with a Norwegian badge. They were both sprawled face down. Of course the Poles are shouldering the brunt of foreign casualties estimated at some 20,000...an estimate based on fresh graves being dug and construction of necropolises for military personnel. Mines were used in the early days with eyewitness reports of "hundreds" of decomposing bodies lying in mine shafts just over the Polish border. I think Poland is a member of NATO also s/!
Hi, I'm from outside your regular audience - I clicked through because you ranked high on Substack popular articles.
I was surprise to find that in a single paragraph you managed to quote Russian own figures for Ukr losses at face value and a Bloomberg gloom report predating sign-off of US help package and 1. 5months old.
I expected a better source selection from a popular writer.
I say clearly it is a Russian-claimed number. There is no other number anyone has published. If there was another claim I would have included it. All that tells me is that the Ukrainians are not disputing the Russian number. I suppose you could figure that out, if you bothered.
The latest figures on casualties per Putin's latest statements and a deep dive into the figures was just published.
Ukraine loses 50,000 men per month, both irrecoverable and sanitary losses, i.e. total casualties included wounded, KIA, etc.
The ratio of their wounded to irrecoverable/KIA is 50/50, which means out of 50k, 25k of them are actually irrecoverable losses. (note: this is a high proportion to wounded because of Ukraine’s comparative lack of battlefield medicine which causes far more wounded to die, not to mention Russia’s usage of powerful airstrikes/bombs which proportionally simply kills far more soldiers outright)
Ukraine mobilizes 30,000 new men per month from the street.
The ratio between Russian and Ukrainian losses is 1:5 in favor of Russia.
The ratio of POWs is 1,348 to 6,465 in favor of Russia.
Recall that MediaZona/BBC have the supposedly confirmed Russian names of what is now ~54,000 KIA. They claim this is only Russian troops and does not count DPR/LPR, which they claim is a further ~23k or so dead. They further extrapolate their confirmed name count of 54k to be about 84k total dead based on their assumption that they cannot confirm every actual death.
Thus, using the above, we can assume that the KIA on Russia’s side could be something like: 54k (Russia) + 23k (LDNR) = 77k; or their extrapolated estimate of 84k + 23k = ~107k.
However, that is just KIA alone. That doesn’t count Russia’s “irrecoverable losses”, which are people maimed or too injured to fight again. Russia’s irrecoverable are far smaller than that of Ukraine due to the far superior Russian battlefield medicine and ability to evacuate injured troops in time to save their limbs, etc. This is due to having helicopters and other transports far more readily available. Even so, we can estimate there’s got to be at least another 20-40k irrecoverable if not more...
Yep, by Russian counts the ukr army has been defeated 4x over and yet still it's a deadlock in kharkiv. Click bait headline got me, hoping for a realist take rather than cheerleading for either side. At least I understand why people cheer lead for ukr, but no idea why you'd write drivel like the US army as an expeditionary force couldn't take on Russia in Ukraine - there's legit worries about nuclear and then there's just this. 🤷♂️
You need to read more outside the "box"...Mr. Bryen being on the short list of well-informed and unbiased writers who refuse to push the propaganda narrative! Half a million Ukrainian casualties going into the beginning of the year..Van der Lyen herself let slip 100,000 Ukrainian dead after the first 10 months! Another 130,000 for the failed summer offense 2023. 550,000 total dead/wounded highly "reasonable" based on asymmetries in the disposition of forces, industrial, and human capacities. That's 3 armies that NATO trained and stood up that are now lying in the burgeoning necropolises blooming all over Ukraine. The fourth is dwindling rapidly. On the bright side many of the outright nazi (Azov) and punisher battalions (Dniepro et al) are being fed into the meat grinder. The bottom of the barrel is all that's left to draft and those poor bastards are doing their utmost to stay alive by hiding as best they can ; unfortunately running for the border often ends with a bullet in the back. It is a US/Biden-produced national disaster that has only one end; total ruination of Ukraine and capitulation on Russian terms. Pushing Ukrainians into the bloody maw of this conflict is so morally bankrupt and repugnant I am at a loss for words; only and insane or cold-blooded murder would have walked away from the first peace talks in March 2022. No sane person could think Ukraine could prevail. Sadly you and Susan L Knox are oblivious as to when this conflict truly began, why it intensified February 2022, nor the root causes of it happening at all!
You’re clealry ignorant of the force structure of the SMO. The Ukrainians began with 750k men in the field (a 3 to 1 numerical advantage). They’ve been forcibly conscripting non-stop throughout the conflict, now lowering the recruitment age to 18. Despite this, every Western pundit and MSM outlet is now lamenting the lack of Ukrainian manpower. Where have those million plus men gone? Into the ground regrettably. Ukraine now has approx 250k men remaining under arms, most sane analysts predict a collapse sometime this year.
You noted Steve, with Alexander Mercouris: “It would seem to me that the best thing we could do is to propose a meeting between the Chairman of our Joint Chiefs of Staff here in the US, and the Russian Chairman, and let them have a conversation. No commitments on either side, just start a conversation. Because then you have some basis to figure out a solution… I don’t think using State Departments and Foreign Ministries is the right channel, in my personal view, because it’s too serious. The right channel is the two militaries.” (https://youtu.be/8vmRS0b8ekE?si=o_nz4gY952JJWgyd&t=1594)
A Korean-style armistice has been bashed by quite a few. But it is fascinating that the Armistice there was signed *without* any signature from the South Korean President. Could the same be done without Zelensky?
Clause 13d could also be emulated, which allowed a security guarantee *while* being sensitive to an adversary’s desire for there being restrictions on weaponry for a non-allied country on its border.
Thanks for reading this yesterday. Hope I’m okay sharing for any readers who might be interested to take a further look at the Korea analogy as a potential way out: https://lttos.org/ukraine/win-the-peace/
Read the above link. The exact same thing happened with President Rhee of South Korea, two years into that war.
“Having decided to abandon the indirect presidential election system, [President] Syngman Rhee proceeded to amend the Constitution so as to make possible the implementation of a direct presidential election system… Rhee was subsequently reelected as president. During this process, Rhee was criticized by opposition parties for having used coercive methods such as the proclamation of martial law to ensure his reelection.
While plans were in the works to bring the war to an end in 1953… Rhee came out strongly against the proposed… postwar settlement, and armistice… Rhee effectively put himself
at political odds with his lifelong ally the United States.”
According to the estimates, West (European members on NATO) can mybe rearm itself at the earliest by 2027-28. Now NATO is really weak militarily. I doubt Ukraine will be around in by 2027-28. If Russia sees that despite of the fall on the Ukraine NATO will anyway attack Russia as soon as it gets ready for it, it might be sensible to neatralize NATO ASAP. As they say, steam locomotives are easier to kill while they are kettles. Russia has zero interest in attacking NATO, but if this hostility remains, it might be forced to.
This wider use of NATO long-range strikes on ”old” Russian territory will not affect descrition of Ukraine in any way. I see it as American PR effort.
Tell that to Teutonic Knights, Carl Gustax XII, Napoleon Bonaparte, Adolf Hitler and numerous other defeated invaders. Maybe you skipt too many history lessons in the school. Americans in general do not know history and have been historically spared from existential wars on their own soil. This leds to strategic nearsighthess. USA has thrown Ukraine under the bus to commit ”suicide by Russia”. As an European I hope that no other European nation will follow this tragic American Seiren call. You shoud too because any major war in Europe will automatically and inevitably escalate to nuclear Armangeddon in United States too.
My theory is that NATO is trying to create conditions for Russia to use nuclear weapons. The constant escalation by the West is a calculated risk that they hope to turn into a PR victory, or at least a significant talking point.
I have written a piece on this, which I invite you to read.
In an interview with French "Valeurs Acteurs" former commander of French Marine regiment Peer de Jong confirms that there have long been French troops in Ukraine.
"Valeurs Acteurs" being behind paywall, yahoo has the basics of the story free:
Perhaps the Russians "answered"! Seems like reports that a Global Hawk drone "lost" its way over the Black Sea are true. Yesterday there were multiple accounts of Reapers disappearing" from radar only to reappear later (turned off transponders). However it seems one never "reappeared" and was likely "brought down" !
Macron, Scholz, Stoltenberg, and Biden fail to realize how dangerous their approach to Russia is. I don't think that brazen infrastructure attacks in Europe and the US by Russia are far away. Unreal.
The extinction of NATO is necessary to stop this madness! Western countries are obviously ruled by psychopaths and at this point the only rational actors are Putin and Orban.
Biden is an aged, senile, demented fool controlled by neocon lunatics who want WWIII with Russia, a war no one can win.
Biden is experienced in governing, diplomacy, and understands personal loss and really cares about the people he governs. He is coherant, wise, and has a healthy sense of humor. His administration is salvaging Americans who are suffering RepubliCONs abuse of power over the last several decades. Biden doesn't lie. The contrast to Putin is stark. Its time to put Putin out of business
Sheep spend their entire lives in fear of the wolf only to be eaten by the shepherd; once you understand this statement the game changes and you will begin to understand politics.
Is this satire?
LOL, "coherent and wise" Hysterical.
How brainwashed are you? Nothing but lies coming out of the mouths of Biden and Co!
NATO extinction is a good thing.
Putin and Orban are about as rational as Captain Hook and Smee, Mr. Troll.
The most rational leaders in the world. The rest of the collective West wishes they had leaders half as good as these guys.
Still better than Biden and his bubbling State Department idiots!
The psychopaths are in the Russian government, starting with Putin and his pet sewer rat, Medvedev, barking and burping out threats. Russia can be stopped, will be stopped. It is a 2nd rate military, as has been proven over almost 2.5 yrs of war (that was meant to last about a month as per the fools in Russian leadership. No negotiations with the Russians is the best policy right now, unless they start to act like civilized human beings and start withdrawing their troops from Ukraine and giving up stolen Ukrainian territory. How difficult it is for decent Russians to be stuck with a leadership that brings only shame and disgrace to Russian identity.
Maybe also Meloni……
So who is going to do this?
Putin
I have said this all along. Nobody is flirting with nuclear war.
The sociopaths who rule the West would without hesitation annihilate us all before they give up their perches. They are not flirting. They know full well what they are doing.
Putin is the only sociopath who talks about nuclear war and Russia is the country which has endangered nuclear power plants in the Ukraine. I wouldn't mind if the Kremlin was wiped off the face of the Earth, because Russia has caused nothing but misery and disaster, but luckily for you I'm not at all influencial.
"Never trust a Russian" has never been more true.
Funny, none other than Lindsey Graham talked yesterday about nuclear war. As to why you think Russia would target nuclear plants under Russian control, well, that's your pathology.
Do you also through out such wild ethnic slurs about Jews?
Lindsey Graham is a fruitcake.
Yes, and your point is?
You’re an idiot. The Ukrainians are the ones shelling the Zapo nuclear power plant (hoping to cause a meltdown and trigger chaos and escalation).
May I also remind you that there’s only been one country who has used nuclear weapons in anger, the US, and on civilian population centres no less.
Maybe not in anger so much as desperation. Compare that to Putin pouting because his act of piracy was a failure.
The irony of an Anglo denouncing the Russians as pirates.
Putin has been successful, Ukraine has been removed from Western control and will soon be folded back into Russian control.
Well at least Bidon isn't selling or stealing White House inventory, fixtures and furniture. And as for folding Ukraine, I'm not so sure about that. As long as we are predicting the future, I predict that Russian chaos will be it's undoing and Ukraine will not only take back it's post WWII original boundaries, but so will all the other countries bordering Russia and will also regain their pre WWII territories that Russia stole.. The Fins will go shopping in St Petersburg like Americans do I Mexico. Russia will forfiet that diamond mine SE of Moscow. China will take care of the rest.
Possibly the dumbest comment I’ve ever read on Substack and there’s some stiff competition.
You’re now blocked.
Are you for real? Wow!
Complete madness. How many weapons did Biden declare would not be sent to Ukraine and then released them. Bombing Rafah is a red line. It was white. Every day Biden's press spokespeople lie to us. The reporters know it and the press spokespeople know the reporters know it. It's a farce. Why do they carry out the charade. Only a few, far the minority, push back. The hands go up with no follow up. Mainstream media is in bed with the government. Putin has given stark warnings in press conferences about retaliation. He asked if the U.S. wants to escalate to strategic weapons. Did you see front page banner headlines in the NYT about that? Nuclear war? The NYT gave plenty of space gloating over Trump's conviction for paying off a prostitute to keep silent. Give him prison time. But no condemnation of Biden's genocide or the 500,000+ Ukrainians shoved through the meat grinder in a war that was completely avoidable. These deaths demonstrate how Biden and both parties in Congress have no regard for human lives. Grasping at hegemony is all that matters. How does hegemony benefit the vast majority of Americans? It denies us a better quality of life.
The reporters don’t know anything. They just report the lies that they are told
It's not Bidens fault the RepubliCONs stalled payments for srmsvto Ukraine.
That will be part of the propaganda by mainstream media making excuses for the unnecessary war. Every knowledgeable commentator in independent news media are in agreement: the war cannot be reversed, nor was it ever possible to defeat the Russians, because of the vast differences in forces and population between the two countries. You can send as many weapons as you like to Ukraine but it won't change the outcome. Ukraine has no more soldiers to fight. That is the limiting factor. They have no control over the airspace. Their military will collapse by the end of the summer provided the U.S. does not ignore Putin's latest red lines announced publicly and privately to the U.S., UK and France. The war has demonstrated that the U.S. and NATO lack the industrial capacity to resupply our military during war. And the trillions we've spent on high tech weapons don't deliver. The Russians have quickly adapted to make them ineffectual. Mao was right. We are a paper tiger. We cannot possibly defend Taiwan nor have the right to. Surface naval ships are obsolete due to missiles and drones. War with China will quickly devolve to nuclear weapons because that's all the U.S. has. Russia will join with China in any war against the latter because the U.S. is their common aggressor. China and Russia want peaceful engagement. But the U.S. only deals in threats or actual violence and is unable to spell the word diplomacy. And the majority of countries are sick of it. The majority of nations will back BRICS. Wake up while we still have a small chance to survive.
Well said.
Really foolish post. You have to draw the line. You have a rabid, predatory power with delusions of "Russia World", "Historic Russian Lands", "Protecting Russian Speakers". Garbage. Russia can be defeated, will be defeated, should be defeated if the collective west decides to do it. They are a 2nd rate military power in comparison. Russia could be a great and civilized country if it ever did anything about it's psycho leadership. Been that way for 100+ years. Tragic.
More nonsense. Russia is the pre-eminent land power in the world at present, the collective West has no chance in a head on fight. Not to mention that China, NK and Iran would join the fray, the best the West could hope for would be escalation to nuclear and mutual destruction.
Don't rely on me. Take the time to listen to the following people on YouTube: retired CIA analysts: Larry Johnson, Phil Geraldi and Ray McGovern; retired Col. Douglas MacGregor; retired Col Larry Wilkerson, former Ambassador Chas Freeman; and former Marine intelligence officer and nuclear weapons inspector Scott Ritter. These people are very experienced in Russian/Soviet affairs and Russian/Soviet history. If you only listen to one, listen to retired Col. Douglas MacGregor. He is intellectually brilliant. Especially watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2hKBus5CKlI&t=1254s
Warmongering neocon lunatics like Biden, Blinky, Nuland, and Sullivan want WWIII with Russia.
You have confused offence with defence. Russia was the first violent.aggressor.
Of course, you would like to be a cruel aggressor yourself, but alas.
Yes, this is obvious. What does anyone propose to do about it?
Not give in to morally perverted leadership that governs Russia. They have added rape, murder, theft, kidnapping, torcher to the Russian identity. A real tragedy for a country for such a beautiful country with a rich culture and a creative people. Clean up the sewer that is the Kremlin! The Russians can do this, should do this, themselves. In the meantime. the west needs to be vigilant and strong. Do this and the Russian military is not a real rival.
Even if post-1991 Russia really were guilty of every last thing it was accused of (it isn't, but bear with me) that would be a pimple on the ass of the West's crimes in Iraq alone.
How much do they pay you to write such tripe? Embarrassing analysis.
I watched a video clip of Russian soldiers killing a Norwegian soldier in his Norwegian uniform last night.
That was clearly a fake video and proven fake the same day, the same was pushed showing a French soldier that was even more blatantly set up and laughable
Proven by who?
Sources? I know what I saw
https://www.nrk.no/urix/faktisk.no_-russisk-video-av-_norsk-leiesoldat_-iscenesatt-1.16907045
I got it translated with some difficulty. I'm always open to new data. This was not terribly convincing but if I knew more about digital matters it would help. Edited? Possibly but there is much speculation and no "proof". I can accept that but only within the context of WHO is making the claim. Had it come from a non involved non NATO source I would find that more reassuring. It remains, in my mind as plausibly a real event thats authentic. But I will keep my mind open.
Let me add this. We know NATO troops are there. We know some have been slain. We know more are on the way, including the French. So, in the end, does it matter one way or the other? The facts on the ground says its possible and in the future, probable.
“We know NATO troops are there” how do we know? I’d guarantee they aren’t and if so, are the types that dress in civilian clothes and in ones and twos giving advice and guidance and certainly not anywhere near the front line.
Most Ukrainians wear stuff bought or donated. Half the Ukrainians I’ve seen have US flags on their helmets, especially the younger ones, they suffer from the “want to look cool” disease like most militaries these days. Doesn’t mean they’re American does it. The video in question shows a guy laying on the floor in a trench. No NATO country would risk one of our own in a trench. All of Klitschko’s bodyguard team wore Norwegian uniforms with Norwegian flags on them. They weren’t Norwegians they were Ukrainians with donated uniforms. Seeing with your own eyes doesn’t always tell what’s there. The French Foreign Legion soldiers being thrown around is the same deal but worse. Mortar with no base plate and the guy is wearing a big scraggy beard. No Legionnaire on OP’s or not would wear one unless he’s the pioneer. It’s just propaganda and we’ll be seeing a hell of a lot more of it in the coming months
I'm not sure about that one but I saw one where a Russian soldier entered a dugout with a 2 dead soldiers, one with a French tri-color badge and the other with a Norwegian badge. They were both sprawled face down. Of course the Poles are shouldering the brunt of foreign casualties estimated at some 20,000...an estimate based on fresh graves being dug and construction of necropolises for military personnel. Mines were used in the early days with eyewitness reports of "hundreds" of decomposing bodies lying in mine shafts just over the Polish border. I think Poland is a member of NATO also s/!
Seems Xi is playing both sides of the Ukraine/NATO v. Russia war. A kinetic escalation creates better conditions for Xi to take Taiwan.
Hi, I'm from outside your regular audience - I clicked through because you ranked high on Substack popular articles.
I was surprise to find that in a single paragraph you managed to quote Russian own figures for Ukr losses at face value and a Bloomberg gloom report predating sign-off of US help package and 1. 5months old.
I expected a better source selection from a popular writer.
I say clearly it is a Russian-claimed number. There is no other number anyone has published. If there was another claim I would have included it. All that tells me is that the Ukrainians are not disputing the Russian number. I suppose you could figure that out, if you bothered.
It's not worth the effort to check out Russian claims, because they don't know how to tell the truth.
The latest figures on casualties per Putin's latest statements and a deep dive into the figures was just published.
Ukraine loses 50,000 men per month, both irrecoverable and sanitary losses, i.e. total casualties included wounded, KIA, etc.
The ratio of their wounded to irrecoverable/KIA is 50/50, which means out of 50k, 25k of them are actually irrecoverable losses. (note: this is a high proportion to wounded because of Ukraine’s comparative lack of battlefield medicine which causes far more wounded to die, not to mention Russia’s usage of powerful airstrikes/bombs which proportionally simply kills far more soldiers outright)
Ukraine mobilizes 30,000 new men per month from the street.
The ratio between Russian and Ukrainian losses is 1:5 in favor of Russia.
The ratio of POWs is 1,348 to 6,465 in favor of Russia.
Recall that MediaZona/BBC have the supposedly confirmed Russian names of what is now ~54,000 KIA. They claim this is only Russian troops and does not count DPR/LPR, which they claim is a further ~23k or so dead. They further extrapolate their confirmed name count of 54k to be about 84k total dead based on their assumption that they cannot confirm every actual death.
Thus, using the above, we can assume that the KIA on Russia’s side could be something like: 54k (Russia) + 23k (LDNR) = 77k; or their extrapolated estimate of 84k + 23k = ~107k.
However, that is just KIA alone. That doesn’t count Russia’s “irrecoverable losses”, which are people maimed or too injured to fight again. Russia’s irrecoverable are far smaller than that of Ukraine due to the far superior Russian battlefield medicine and ability to evacuate injured troops in time to save their limbs, etc. This is due to having helicopters and other transports far more readily available. Even so, we can estimate there’s got to be at least another 20-40k irrecoverable if not more...
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/putin-gives-first-official-idea-of
Same here. This reads like dressed up Russian disinformation. Substack’s recommender algo is clearly not very good.
You’re just misinformed.
Ditto
Yep, by Russian counts the ukr army has been defeated 4x over and yet still it's a deadlock in kharkiv. Click bait headline got me, hoping for a realist take rather than cheerleading for either side. At least I understand why people cheer lead for ukr, but no idea why you'd write drivel like the US army as an expeditionary force couldn't take on Russia in Ukraine - there's legit worries about nuclear and then there's just this. 🤷♂️
You need to read more outside the "box"...Mr. Bryen being on the short list of well-informed and unbiased writers who refuse to push the propaganda narrative! Half a million Ukrainian casualties going into the beginning of the year..Van der Lyen herself let slip 100,000 Ukrainian dead after the first 10 months! Another 130,000 for the failed summer offense 2023. 550,000 total dead/wounded highly "reasonable" based on asymmetries in the disposition of forces, industrial, and human capacities. That's 3 armies that NATO trained and stood up that are now lying in the burgeoning necropolises blooming all over Ukraine. The fourth is dwindling rapidly. On the bright side many of the outright nazi (Azov) and punisher battalions (Dniepro et al) are being fed into the meat grinder. The bottom of the barrel is all that's left to draft and those poor bastards are doing their utmost to stay alive by hiding as best they can ; unfortunately running for the border often ends with a bullet in the back. It is a US/Biden-produced national disaster that has only one end; total ruination of Ukraine and capitulation on Russian terms. Pushing Ukrainians into the bloody maw of this conflict is so morally bankrupt and repugnant I am at a loss for words; only and insane or cold-blooded murder would have walked away from the first peace talks in March 2022. No sane person could think Ukraine could prevail. Sadly you and Susan L Knox are oblivious as to when this conflict truly began, why it intensified February 2022, nor the root causes of it happening at all!
You’re clealry ignorant of the force structure of the SMO. The Ukrainians began with 750k men in the field (a 3 to 1 numerical advantage). They’ve been forcibly conscripting non-stop throughout the conflict, now lowering the recruitment age to 18. Despite this, every Western pundit and MSM outlet is now lamenting the lack of Ukrainian manpower. Where have those million plus men gone? Into the ground regrettably. Ukraine now has approx 250k men remaining under arms, most sane analysts predict a collapse sometime this year.
What makes these people think they can destroy life on earth? Do they all have outposts in space? Underground cities? Where do they plan on living?
Men.
Women! At least today. Pelosi, Hillary, Yellen, I could go on…
Nuland, Rice, Albright, Applebaum ?
It's a long, sorry list. They give women a bad name. I resent them.
Von der Leyen, Ardern, Kallas, Baerbock, Freeland…
Excellent piece.
You noted Steve, with Alexander Mercouris: “It would seem to me that the best thing we could do is to propose a meeting between the Chairman of our Joint Chiefs of Staff here in the US, and the Russian Chairman, and let them have a conversation. No commitments on either side, just start a conversation. Because then you have some basis to figure out a solution… I don’t think using State Departments and Foreign Ministries is the right channel, in my personal view, because it’s too serious. The right channel is the two militaries.” (https://youtu.be/8vmRS0b8ekE?si=o_nz4gY952JJWgyd&t=1594)
A Korean-style armistice has been bashed by quite a few. But it is fascinating that the Armistice there was signed *without* any signature from the South Korean President. Could the same be done without Zelensky?
Clause 13d could also be emulated, which allowed a security guarantee *while* being sensitive to an adversary’s desire for there being restrictions on weaponry for a non-allied country on its border.
Thanks for reading this yesterday. Hope I’m okay sharing for any readers who might be interested to take a further look at the Korea analogy as a potential way out: https://lttos.org/ukraine/win-the-peace/
Zelensky is technically not the authority in Ukraine. His mandate expired in May
Read the above link. The exact same thing happened with President Rhee of South Korea, two years into that war.
“Having decided to abandon the indirect presidential election system, [President] Syngman Rhee proceeded to amend the Constitution so as to make possible the implementation of a direct presidential election system… Rhee was subsequently reelected as president. During this process, Rhee was criticized by opposition parties for having used coercive methods such as the proclamation of martial law to ensure his reelection.
While plans were in the works to bring the war to an end in 1953… Rhee came out strongly against the proposed… postwar settlement, and armistice… Rhee effectively put himself
at political odds with his lifelong ally the United States.”
Source: https://accesson.kr/rks/assets/pdf/7727/journal-14-3-33.pdf
Zelenskii is and has the authority that the Americans say he does. The Ukrainian constitution is irrelevant.
(Rules-based-order?)
It is true that the "rules based international order" is "the Americans make the rules and give the orders".
What does anyone propose to do about it?
Watch the Russians and Chinese; we should find out in our lifetimes.
Doesn’t matter.
Do really think our guy has the brains to do that? Don’t trust dei hires
According to the estimates, West (European members on NATO) can mybe rearm itself at the earliest by 2027-28. Now NATO is really weak militarily. I doubt Ukraine will be around in by 2027-28. If Russia sees that despite of the fall on the Ukraine NATO will anyway attack Russia as soon as it gets ready for it, it might be sensible to neatralize NATO ASAP. As they say, steam locomotives are easier to kill while they are kettles. Russia has zero interest in attacking NATO, but if this hostility remains, it might be forced to.
This wider use of NATO long-range strikes on ”old” Russian territory will not affect descrition of Ukraine in any way. I see it as American PR effort.
Russia will fail. It.alwsys fails. Piracy is for losers.
Tell that to Teutonic Knights, Carl Gustax XII, Napoleon Bonaparte, Adolf Hitler and numerous other defeated invaders. Maybe you skipt too many history lessons in the school. Americans in general do not know history and have been historically spared from existential wars on their own soil. This leds to strategic nearsighthess. USA has thrown Ukraine under the bus to commit ”suicide by Russia”. As an European I hope that no other European nation will follow this tragic American Seiren call. You shoud too because any major war in Europe will automatically and inevitably escalate to nuclear Armangeddon in United States too.
What factories are currently building these arms you’re talking about?
My theory is that NATO is trying to create conditions for Russia to use nuclear weapons. The constant escalation by the West is a calculated risk that they hope to turn into a PR victory, or at least a significant talking point.
I have written a piece on this, which I invite you to read.
https://open.substack.com/pub/badpoliticsblog/p/the-wests-nuclear-gamble-with-russia
In an interview with French "Valeurs Acteurs" former commander of French Marine regiment Peer de Jong confirms that there have long been French troops in Ukraine.
"Valeurs Acteurs" being behind paywall, yahoo has the basics of the story free:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/french-instructors-already-ukraine-french-102200163.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cucXdhbnQuY29tLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAF-D2TdcIn8UlBo8v1t2ZnGbwtnaIlvSts4-QJu9uDdJ50nF_8T7EfbFGFJpk02GXiu0twdc4DB1uamRRoMdDrDEGDhH1p9Yjyy3BS8q11vmDfQEu5TAXirM5COXqyO7a7b5yTsoWTFG4pH4UCBQP4K9z133NoRrY1Z3wKmk3_LQ
Thank you. It confirms once again the argument I have been making.
Perhaps the Russians "answered"! Seems like reports that a Global Hawk drone "lost" its way over the Black Sea are true. Yesterday there were multiple accounts of Reapers disappearing" from radar only to reappear later (turned off transponders). However it seems one never "reappeared" and was likely "brought down" !
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2024/06/04/phantom-skies-a-u-s-rq-4b-drone-was-lost-over-the-black-sea/
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A good text from a serious analyst and expert. It's just a pity that words already have little meaning. The situation is developing too aggressively
Macron, Scholz, Stoltenberg, and Biden fail to realize how dangerous their approach to Russia is. I don't think that brazen infrastructure attacks in Europe and the US by Russia are far away. Unreal.