118 Comments

Stephen, I hope you are wrong, but I fear you are not.

There is no stupid that the West has not stopped at sooner or later.

Anyway, a neutralist foreign policy is needed and your work is evidence of this.

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Apr 25·edited Apr 26

Yeah well Steven's not the guy to talk to about a neutralist foreign policy. He's quite insightful when he's talking about Ukraine or Taiwan, but when it comes to other theaters of conflict, he kind of loses his mind.

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I'm working gently on your man.

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So, what you're saying is that he's a lot like Mearsheimer.

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Hardly. Mearsheimer endorses the ICC labeling the "Gaza War" a cover for outright genocide launched to ethnically cleanse Gaza of Palestinians.

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Sad to see how the European politicians can't stand up to the US, while the US is risking nuclear war in Europe.

The day the US destroyed Nordstream every European politician should have known which side the US is on. With friends like this you don't need enemies.

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Europeans have less self-respect than whipped dogs.

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Cuckolds

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we don't need a war to save nazi US proxy war. What US have done with the help of North EU countries was an ACT OF WAR against Europe also, as those infrastructures were very useful and good for EU economy and families.

We have a huge problem in this World and that problem is USA! Keep in mind criminals!

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Reading between the lines, the American security services have lost touch with reality to such an extent that a former Deputy Under Secretary of Defense is hoping for a quick Russian victory, fearing the US would cause a species-ending war otherwise.

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Given time, probably.

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JD, stated that way, I say, goddamn!

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The Evil Empire from North America is stubbornly leading the World to disaster.

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Alexey, I agree but let me reformulate your evil empire, as per Professor Deneen of the Post Liberal Order Substack. He refers to as “the political Gnosticism of the liberal imperium.” Cogitate on that for a bit.

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I believe the term of art is “Empire of Lies”

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I nearly choked on it! 😈

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One last thought. Isn't this move giving Russia a huge incentive to strike hard with fresh forces to put things totally in their favor? Even cause the collapse of Ukraine forces? Seems that way to me. Rumors of a coming Russian offensive in summer are rampant.

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RemovedApr 30
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I’ve been saying this for two years but it doesn’t happen, why not?

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Some have suggested, it may be because Russia wants a couple of hundred kilometers on the west of the river to support Zaporozhye and Dnipro industry. They must have a strategy for them, as I can't see that they couldn't be taken out with a (few) anti-ship or hypersonic missiles.

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author

I suggest that Russia has two objectives. The first is to secure the territories they hold with borders that block the Ukrainians from acting effectively against them (this implies that most of the villages and defense works have to be taken); the second is to de-Natoize and mostly demilitarize Ukraine. The first part is military and objective: the second part is political and potentially variable. Regarding the second part, it is unlikely NATO will agree, even if Ukraine is cajoled into signing on the dotted line.

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When Russia gets to the point where they are satisfied, there may not BE a NATO as it will be seen as useless.

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All this madness for a shithole country. Do people really want to risk nuclear war for this?! Biden is not only stupid, he's not competent and probably a Muppet POTUS. PLUS! He could and probably is creating a situation to box Trump in. He's already admitted this for other programs.

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Gary F. Shit hole country was Trump’s saying and I love him for it (apologies to Ukrainians).

By the way, I’m a Canadian who winters in Florida, America has become a shit hole as well

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Canada under Trudeau looks like a Soviet vassal state. My family fled there after the Revolutionary War and stayed 100 years.

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What's the difference, Russian vassal state or American vassal state, history shows that the Russians at least don't have a history of stabbing their vassals in the back when they are no longer useful, quite unlike the Americans.

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Apr 26·edited Apr 27

"All this madness for a shithole country."

Well it didn't really start out this way if you read the RAND corporation policy paper of 2019. Instigating conflict on the Russian border using Ukro-Nazis was conceived of as a low risk low cost high reward gambit. The neocon leaning strategist had the idea that Russia was a recent version of latter-day rock and that Putin was the second coming of Saddam Hussein.

They certainly didn't vision dragging the US into a shooting war with Russia. The hope was that economic sanctions alone with topple the Kremlin and then the predators could move in and carve up the Russian Federation. If things didn't work out well the US could cut its losses and a few hundred thousand Slavs could lose their lives. No biggie.

But as with earlier pipe dreams such as World War I the whole thing took on a life of its own. And now we are possibly looking down the barrel of a nuclear confrontation sometime soon

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They are doing the same in Kazakhstan already. Lots of hatred is being spread there.

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In their Feb publication concerning Ukraine and Russia, the RAND Corp appears to have done a 180 (not 360 like Braerbock) and is advocating a kind of rapprochement with Russia.

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author

RAND works almost exclusively for the Federal government and usually has a multimillion dollar contract from DOD. Your information is very interesting.

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The RAND corp may have done a 180 but the neocons in power don't have that reverse gear and are too arrogant to use it if they had one.

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Apr 27·edited Apr 28

Thank you for your comment steck; It makes my point. As far back as summer of 2022 RAND tried to climb down from what they had unleashed. What these boobs didn't realize is that once the desolation of war is released it's hard to flip into reverse gear and go the other way.

RAND had outlined an opportunistic strategy to instigate regime change in the Kremlin for short money by means of economic warfare. They never intended PROJECT Ukraine to go kinetic. Unfortunately a lot of rubes never got the memo including the ones in the White House and in most European capitals. So now Ukraine has become a very dangerous situation; likely the Russians will proceed with their agenda and reduce Ukraine to an impotent rump state.

But who knows? Some hot head could take precipitous action leading to a massive Russian retaliation that escalates from there.

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Why stupid though? Taking out the EU as a competitor has many advantages.

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When WW2 ended the USA decided to keep Europe dependent on the US military. It was felt that they did not want a Europe that would become compete with us as a peer power. It was understood that they were likely as not to not be especially friendly and might even become hostile to our foreign policy goals They were right but keeping NATO after the Soviets fell was a huge mistake. That was the time to turn them out on their own. Consider the huge shift in history that would have been! Yes, there were advantages and certainly German held up its bargain through the Soviet years. There is a serious underlying hostility within European elites.

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No, they had to keep the EU and particularly Germany in line, with the cheap reliable Russian energy, Germany was a competitor of the US, the problem the neocons have, is that they don't know when is enough.

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Project for a NEW American century. Why was the 20th century the American Century? Because of massive total war in Europe and East Asia. How can America secure a new Century of global hegemony? Only through catastrophic war in Europe and East Asia. If Europe and East Asia were allowed to trade, prosper, develop technology etc then US power would wane compared to Europe and East Asia. War and sanctions is the only way to maintain USA empire, peace and development would erode our advantages in technology, prosperity, and military power.

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Biden is like a sad old dog being taken for his last vet trip.

It doesn't matter. In the meantime, his signature still counts just the same as any other president.

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Apr 25·edited Apr 25

Since the beginning of the 20th Century three presidents, all Democrats and all running for re-election, assured the mothers of America that they would not send their sons to fight in ongoing wars overseas.

They were Wilson in 1916, FDR in 1940 and LBJ in 1964. All three broke their promise.

Joe 'No Boots on the Ground' Biden (if he lives long enough to win re-election in November) will become #4.

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It sure seems like NATO and the U.S. are provoking WWIII. They know Ukraine has no chance to even win a morale victory. They know the death and destruction that will befall Europe if WWIII erupts.

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All this sets the scene for events that Americans have no experience of. A major defeat in a major war. That's if we are lucky. Never underestimate Russia.

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And “Don't underestimate Joe's ability to fuck things up.”

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Wait until the first city is bombed!

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Apr 26·edited Apr 26

Biden and Congress are insane. NATO only introduces combat troops if Biden gives a green light. Biden keeps upping the ante which Putin will match. How far is this brain-dead, mumbling, unable to walk without assistance idiot willing to go to risk nuclear winter? We do not have a large enough military force to fight a regional war. It will require a draft. Then let's see how the American public reacts to our non-stop wars when it's their loved ones on the front lines. Let's see how many armchair warrior commenters in the NYT propaganda outlet cheer on all our wars and demand defeat of Russia. Our government is completely out of control.

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WW3 would be over before the Draftees finished Boot Camp.

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Every war we fought from Vietnam and prior was with a draft-citizen military. If we end the post-Vietnam mercenary/career forces it would dismantle our non-stop wars.

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Nato and American troops have not faced this kind of peer combat since WW2.

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Apr 25·edited Apr 25

1. I question whether Russia has the stomach to win. The Russian leadership has shown itself to be dithering and indecisive. The West, by contrast, is absolutely itching to fight.

2. Even if Trump wins, he is weak, stupid and easily manipulated. Call him "Putin puppet!" and he will fold.

If anything (and this is not an endorsement!) Biden would find it easier to leave Ukraine than Trump. since Biden has pretty much every establishment institution, governmental and otherwise, on his side and willing to run interference for him.

This is why Biden was able to leave Afghanistan, while the MSM made up fanciful tales of "Russian bounties" when Trump tried (and failed!) to do so. For that matter, if Trump were to push The Button, the MSM would insist that this was done at Putin's order, and besides, Biden would have pushed it sooner and better.

Anyway, Biden has, in addition to blanket institutional support, a huge fundraising advantage and (thanks to the TikTok Ban) the censorship power. His handlers are not worried.

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You speak of Biden as though he is a senitent living human being. He is a senile puppet of someone or group. None of us know exactly who they are or what their policies and goals are. We can only be sure they hate us. If or when Trump is allowed to be installed as president will he be different? I still doubt he’ll be president.

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Of course Biden is senile, a drooling dementia patient. His signature counts just the same.

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Biden doesn't even remember what he had for breakfast. He's not in control of anything. Rather a puppet.

Russia was in no rush, killing tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers. The front will eventually collapse. Why go all in and risk high casualties if you can grind down the opponent and make sure the opponent stays down? Americans know how to start war but not how to win them.

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Biden or any western politician has no stake in this - this is not a decision made by the political class to go to war with Russia - but the superhumans inside Bilderberg, RoundTable Chatham House Club of Rome - Do you think a Biden or Trump can say no to them? Trump will say something but do exactly the opposite - He drained the swamp by bringing the crocodiles to white house - John Bolton, Bill Barr, Mike Pompeo - While Biden will put US boots on the ground after the election as Mr Bryen has written much earlier Trump will increase the quantity of long range and lethan weapons supplied to Ukraine as well as the supply of 'advisors' and the legions - what Biden does overtly Trump will do covertly while lying through the other side of the mouth to his redneck base who will watch their sons come home in body bags or live the rest of their lives as homeless junkies in pennsylvania. This is World War III and war with China will happen by 2026-27 and if the west succeeds we will have the one world govt and paradisical new age promised by Pike Blavatsky and Bailey

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As Mr. Bryen has figured out, the West is rushing in.

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The Ukrainian government, for instance, has decreed that it will provide families of soldiers who are killed in battle with 15 million Ukrainian hryvnia (about $377,000) compensation, an extraordinarily large sum.” From Foreign Affairs article

Only reinforces difficulties Ukraine faces to get recruits

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Of course Ukraine is running low on warm live bodies. Nobody seriously suggests otherwise. And nobody believes that Ukraine will pay any such sum, just as everyone knows that Ukraine will never pay the "loans" that it is provided.

The problem is that the West has already furnished Ukraine so much material and non-material support that it cannot be seen to back down now. Since there are only consequences for de-escalation, the West will only escalate.

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Of course, Biden is senile. "His best days are long behind him, and his best days were never really all that good." as someone put it.

Doesn't matter. His signatures counts the same.

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U.S. foreign policy establishment is intellectually bankrupt. They won’t let Biden back down from Ukraine. He gets institutional support because he does what he’s told.

His Afghanistan pullout was a political move to build credibility with the Democrat base. That same base hates Russia because they believe Russia helped Trump, so the base isn’t clamoring for a peace deal. It should also be noted that it largely won’t be the sons of Democrats coming home in caskets from Ukraine, so Biden would have little to lose from putting American troops in harm’s way.

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This is a bizarre take. Are you an American citizen? The Biden admin. (please, Biden is making 0 decisions) they are all personally invested in Ukraine, that is the only reason we are in this, because ALL of our corrupt politicians were getting paid BIG from the Ukrainian oligarchs. Guys like you which bring everything back to Trump are really deranged, Trump has nothing to do with the debacle in Ukraine.

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Last I checked, a Nuland or Sullivan are not exactly living lives of sybaritic luxury, and Ukraine has no income to pay bribes, except as given to it by the West.

Of course Biden is incompetent. His administration are reckless. None of that matters, the decisions of reckless incomps are still binding.

And nowhere did I blame Trump for Ukraine (although he can be blamed for the situation there from 2016-2020). I simply point out that even if Trump wanted to leave (and there is no real evidence that he does) - he is too weak, stupid and easily manipulated to be able to do so. "Blame" has nothing to do with it.

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You can call Russia dithering and indecisive, or you could say they are measures and calculating, it depends on your perspective I suppose.

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Well, the West has lost all fear of Russia, so there's your answer.

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A myopic and simplistic comment being proven wrong (along with this entire article) this week as France and UK backpedal feverishly in the face of Russias tactical nuke exercises.

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I hope they do but I have seen no evidence of this.

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I guess that's why they are funding and arming but staying out.

One of the things that will be interesting to see is what happens if they do put troops in, will China see it as a stepping stone to the future war with them and really start supporting Russia, the West can't keep up to the Russian manufacturing capacity and China has probably five or ten times that capacity, are the empire managers so stupid to think they can overcome that?

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As the author has pointed out NATO already have troops in Ukraine and soon they will intervene directly and openly.

What Russia thinks of reasonableness and humanitarianism, the West sees as contemptible weakness. At every turn, Russia has underestimated western sociopathy.

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Considering Russia's overall outcome since 1991, I see a lot more effective and careful calculating than dithering.

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The only thing Biden has going for him is cheating on an industrial scale.

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Why is Russia doing so little right now?

Despite a reported 10 to 1 edge in artillery, plus enough troops that they can be rotated out for rest and refit, unlike the poor Ukrainians, who get none, the Russians are only creeping forward one small village at a time.

Does this mean the defensive now has a huge edge over the offensive, as it did in WW1?

Clearly drones and full theater real time surveillance are making mincemeat out of all current military doctrines. Certainly the 'combined arms' concept has been found wanting, defeated by extensive minefields and effective air defenses.

Add in drones and long range precision strike, consequently even the Houthis pose an irritating threat which has no reasonable counter.

The bottom line is that nuclear weapons are the only remaining 'great' power edge.

The worry is that when you only have a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

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That's a good question and the only answer I can think of is that's how they've always done things - slow and steady.

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That is selling them short.

Russia was skilled at decisive deep attacks even before WW2.

Look up Zhukovs defeat of the Japanese at Khalkhin Gol, a classic Blitzkrieg campaign.

He whipped the Japanese so thoroughly that they rejected any idea of joining Hitler's 1941 attack on Russia out of hand.

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Timing the knockout for the US election. Trump will get to 'solve the problem' biggly.

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Wait a minute, NATO sitting/hiding in embassies is nothing new. I do not know what sources are saying that actual NATO is on the ground in Ukraine. I have not seen anyone reporting anything besides the goofy French which are dying as soon as they arrive. Mercenaries which are really active duty soldiers from US/UK and some others are definitely not flying their flags. I think this article is meant to give some false hope to Dumb American citizens who are waving tiny Ukrop Nazi flags in Congress

IF the US thought they could defeat Russia they would have entered Ukraine long ago but they are terrified, they know, by they I mean DOD knows their weapons systems are junk, overpriced just to steal taxpayer funds, they were never created to fight a peer or near peer enemy. All the US will do is try to get Poland and some Baltic States to offer up some human meat, the people who rule over us here at home (not the idiot politicians) know they are going to take a loss, they are trying to figure out a way to make it less humiliating and they are failing. Next we will probably see a false flag attack on the ZNPP these pricks want to destroy Ukrainian land before they surrender to Russia. There was plans to bury hazardous waste in the most fertile farmland in the world, that is how sick and twisted these fucks are, now they know Ukraine is being destroyed they have to go to plan BC or D. It is becoming laughable watching all the "tools" tell us how NATO is ready to attack LOL sure

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Apparently, you are right, because it's now April 29th and Stephen still hasn't responded to your "I have not seen anyone reporting anything besides the goofy French which are dying as soon as they arrive. Mercenaries which are really active duty soldiers from US/UK and some others are definitely not flying their flags. I think this article is meant to give some false hope to Dumb American citizens who are waving tiny Ukrop Nazi flags in Congress." Maybe Stephen's expertise in these matters is fake.

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I agree with Trenin who said the only way to survive this for Russia is to scare the West.

Russia needs to test nuclear weapons in the open and threaten with strikes, by changing from a constitutional defence posture to an offensive one.

Otherwise the risk for a confrontation with nuclear weapons will only increase.

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Add to this that the military is seriously worried about North Korea and ICBMS being prepared. If there is WW3 North Korea will start it. I recommend Annie Jacobsons new book, " Nuclear war, a scenario"

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