not sure I would call this a failure on part of Iran. The response was measured and purposeful
Iran showed off its capabilities
1) that it can target Israel with multiple cheap drones that will require full engagement of the air defense systems that is not CHEAP. With further escalation
2) Supposedly, the strikes that made it through at Nevatim airbase were hypersonic missiles. If that is true, it showed its tech capabilities to penetrate air defenses. This would be significant
3) Politically, Iran provided an off ramp. It warned of an attack, thus preventing casualties. Everybody can declare a "victory" and an appropriate narrative. US understands the risk and costs of the further escalation and will pressure Natenyahu for a measured faced saving response potential limited to hitting Iranian proxies in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon
Not convinced that Natenyahu can be contained by Biden. The attacked made him look weak. If he chooses to hit Iran proper, the response will not be measured.
I would say it is a typical Iranian approach, it is not itching for an escalation and is comfortable at chipping away at US and Israel via its proxies, where so far it has been successful.
Not really. An attack like this rapidly depletes anti-missile ammo. This is exactly what the Russians did against Ukraine. Meanwhile years ago Gen. Qasem Soleimani, embarked on the process to turn dumb weapons into smart ones especially in Lebanon. Israel is surrounded by 100,000 such weapons. That's why assassinating Soleimani, was such a high priority. Don't count on the US having stocks and reserve . We don't.
HEADLINE: Military sources say Iran is refitting thousands of ‘dumb’ rockets in Syria and Lebanon so it can zero in on targets the length and breadth of Israel.
Interesting report Stephen, but why did you not mention the reason for Iran's attack (Article 51 response to an illegal attack on their Syrian embassy) or their statement following (advising that if Israel ceases further attacks then they will take no further action)?
I'm surprised nobody here has asked why Netanyahu attacked Iran in Damascus when he did.
The Americans claim they weren't warned and didn't find it helpful for their preferred way forward in the region.
Many including former security chiefs and senior politicians in Israel, and many outside (including me) believe that Netanyahu's top priority is maintaining a state of war, and so his position as PM and the temporary immunity from prosecution for corruption the position provides - perhaps he also hopes escalation might reverse the decline in public support (a classic abuse of armed force by politicians throughout history).
It the Damascus attack was a calculated provocation in Netanyahu's perceived self-interest, what is his logical next step?
Like Budanov in Ukraine he hopes to draw America into wider conflict, and both have ignored American pressure against escalation.
But the very strong signal that, as well as reconsidering some forms of support if Netanyahu crosses the red line at Rafah, America will not cooperate on any direct strikes on Iran, seems to constitute the most direct US leverage - or rather, attempted leverage - thus far.
Will it work any better in the far higher-stakes game with Netanyahu, after serially failing in Ukraine?
America wants, after all, to move on to an even bigger third theatre further East.
You can spin it whatever way you like, but it was a resounding win for Iran. Iran demonstrated to the world that Israel can be hit, even with the most sophisticated missile defence systems, even with US UK doing its defence and even with Arab minions coming to its rescue, most importantly even with a full week long prior information.
Iran sent a message that even the most protected israeli bases can be hit.
Secondly, with their obsession for casualties, it seems unfathomable for the Westerners, Israelis & their ideological supporters that only military targets can be hit without resorting to wanton destruction of civilian infrastructure and deliberate killing which is the modus operandi of zionists and NATO.
Mainstream media doesn’t tell us this: Simple list of what happened. Simple description. Our media lies to us. Reality is carefully curated. The entirety of mainstream media is a fraud.
Alexander Mercouris at the Duran has reported that the U.S. negotiated with the Iranians prior to the retaliation, an agreement defining the scope of Iran's response in order to avoid a regional conflict. That would mean destruction and casualties in Israel would be very limited and largely symbolic.
Israel, by provoking the Iranian reprisal after its attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, has exposed Israeli (and American) weakness, as discussed on the following thread:
"The Iranians did not knock out any of the air defenses protecting Israel" but would a prolonged bombing campaign by Iran be sustainable for Israel financially and in terms of its anti-aircraft missile stocks?
And would Iran have the means to carry out a prolonged bombardment campaign?
This was absolutely not a fantastic win for Israel quite the contrary. Simplicius the thinker Notes the Iranians introduced hypersonics into the mix, this means that nuclear research facilities can be attacked. In effect, the Iranians now have a counter to Israeli nuclear weapons by detonating large scale dirty bombs in attacks on nuclear research facilities .
At the same time, Iran used a lot of cheap drones that forced Israel to expend $1 billion or more to take down these decoys. A few more rounds of this and the Israeli are going to be in the same position Zelenski's in.
Reality has caught up with the propaganda in Ukraine; and it won't be long before it catches up to the propaganda in Israel.
Problem is: Had Iran the right to retaliate? Or do that right belong only to Israel and the evil Empire?
My point of view: you guys are forgetting, txs to the propaganda machine and mental warfare, what was happening during last years of WWII, but I remind you:
"For every nazi soldier killed by European partizans, Nazi were killing 15/20 civilians"
Now who's the Nazi here? Who is using those proportions or even triple them in retaliation?
Just remember that Iran has about 999,500 missile and drones left. This was more of a message than an attack.
Thanks for the summary.
Success or failure.. too soon to say. We don't know yet what the intention of Iran was. Maybe they just wanted to test Israeli air defenses?
not sure I would call this a failure on part of Iran. The response was measured and purposeful
Iran showed off its capabilities
1) that it can target Israel with multiple cheap drones that will require full engagement of the air defense systems that is not CHEAP. With further escalation
2) Supposedly, the strikes that made it through at Nevatim airbase were hypersonic missiles. If that is true, it showed its tech capabilities to penetrate air defenses. This would be significant
3) Politically, Iran provided an off ramp. It warned of an attack, thus preventing casualties. Everybody can declare a "victory" and an appropriate narrative. US understands the risk and costs of the further escalation and will pressure Natenyahu for a measured faced saving response potential limited to hitting Iranian proxies in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon
Not convinced that Natenyahu can be contained by Biden. The attacked made him look weak. If he chooses to hit Iran proper, the response will not be measured.
I would say it is a typical Iranian approach, it is not itching for an escalation and is comfortable at chipping away at US and Israel via its proxies, where so far it has been successful.
"You got a win. Take the win" said Biden.
Not really. An attack like this rapidly depletes anti-missile ammo. This is exactly what the Russians did against Ukraine. Meanwhile years ago Gen. Qasem Soleimani, embarked on the process to turn dumb weapons into smart ones especially in Lebanon. Israel is surrounded by 100,000 such weapons. That's why assassinating Soleimani, was such a high priority. Don't count on the US having stocks and reserve . We don't.
HEADLINE: Military sources say Iran is refitting thousands of ‘dumb’ rockets in Syria and Lebanon so it can zero in on targets the length and breadth of Israel.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/to-target-israel-irans-suitcase-gps-kits-turn-hezbollah-rockets-into-guided-missiles
Of course Israel has one ace in the hole. They could launch nuclear weapons on Iran. Who knows? Biden could be backing that last resort as well.
Interesting report Stephen, but why did you not mention the reason for Iran's attack (Article 51 response to an illegal attack on their Syrian embassy) or their statement following (advising that if Israel ceases further attacks then they will take no further action)?
Cell phone photos and clips might be more illustrative. No government is trustworthy at this time.
I'm surprised nobody here has asked why Netanyahu attacked Iran in Damascus when he did.
The Americans claim they weren't warned and didn't find it helpful for their preferred way forward in the region.
Many including former security chiefs and senior politicians in Israel, and many outside (including me) believe that Netanyahu's top priority is maintaining a state of war, and so his position as PM and the temporary immunity from prosecution for corruption the position provides - perhaps he also hopes escalation might reverse the decline in public support (a classic abuse of armed force by politicians throughout history).
It the Damascus attack was a calculated provocation in Netanyahu's perceived self-interest, what is his logical next step?
Like Budanov in Ukraine he hopes to draw America into wider conflict, and both have ignored American pressure against escalation.
But the very strong signal that, as well as reconsidering some forms of support if Netanyahu crosses the red line at Rafah, America will not cooperate on any direct strikes on Iran, seems to constitute the most direct US leverage - or rather, attempted leverage - thus far.
Will it work any better in the far higher-stakes game with Netanyahu, after serially failing in Ukraine?
America wants, after all, to move on to an even bigger third theatre further East.
You can spin it whatever way you like, but it was a resounding win for Iran. Iran demonstrated to the world that Israel can be hit, even with the most sophisticated missile defence systems, even with US UK doing its defence and even with Arab minions coming to its rescue, most importantly even with a full week long prior information.
Iran sent a message that even the most protected israeli bases can be hit.
Secondly, with their obsession for casualties, it seems unfathomable for the Westerners, Israelis & their ideological supporters that only military targets can be hit without resorting to wanton destruction of civilian infrastructure and deliberate killing which is the modus operandi of zionists and NATO.
Point of order: why only this man?
Mainstream media doesn’t tell us this: Simple list of what happened. Simple description. Our media lies to us. Reality is carefully curated. The entirety of mainstream media is a fraud.
Alexander Mercouris at the Duran has reported that the U.S. negotiated with the Iranians prior to the retaliation, an agreement defining the scope of Iran's response in order to avoid a regional conflict. That would mean destruction and casualties in Israel would be very limited and largely symbolic.
Air traffic is reopened in Israel? It seems like the attack turned out to be an inconvenience.
Israel, by provoking the Iranian reprisal after its attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, has exposed Israeli (and American) weakness, as discussed on the following thread:
https://weapons.substack.com/p/preliminary-results-of-irans-attack/comment/53974804
"The Iranians did not knock out any of the air defenses protecting Israel" but would a prolonged bombing campaign by Iran be sustainable for Israel financially and in terms of its anti-aircraft missile stocks?
And would Iran have the means to carry out a prolonged bombardment campaign?
This was absolutely not a fantastic win for Israel quite the contrary. Simplicius the thinker Notes the Iranians introduced hypersonics into the mix, this means that nuclear research facilities can be attacked. In effect, the Iranians now have a counter to Israeli nuclear weapons by detonating large scale dirty bombs in attacks on nuclear research facilities .
At the same time, Iran used a lot of cheap drones that forced Israel to expend $1 billion or more to take down these decoys. A few more rounds of this and the Israeli are going to be in the same position Zelenski's in.
Reality has caught up with the propaganda in Ukraine; and it won't be long before it catches up to the propaganda in Israel.
We've shared your link.
A Skeptic War Reports
https://askeptic.substack.com/p/war-reports-2024-04-15
Problem is: Had Iran the right to retaliate? Or do that right belong only to Israel and the evil Empire?
My point of view: you guys are forgetting, txs to the propaganda machine and mental warfare, what was happening during last years of WWII, but I remind you:
"For every nazi soldier killed by European partizans, Nazi were killing 15/20 civilians"
Now who's the Nazi here? Who is using those proportions or even triple them in retaliation?
Iran? Not
Hamas? Not
Lebanon? Not
Syria? Not
Iraq? Not
Israel? YES
USA? YES
So, who's the Neo Nazi today?