Arrant nonsense, it was a proof of concept and the reactions will be studied closely. One assumes you are champing at the bit for Israel "retaliation". Maybe try again in a day or two.
it was not a proof of concept --it was a huge attack. Stop making stuff up about what I think. I hate it when people imply things they pull out of the air.
I have read that Iran used seven hypersonic missiles to hit three designated targets, and all the rest was shot down by a billion dollars worth of Israeli/western air defense, which would seem to be a Phyrric victory.
According to a Lebanese professor (per Sputnik), the Iranian strike killed 44 Mossad agents at the Nevatim airbase.
Who knows?? I would like to see verification or rebuttal of the above.
They don't have operational hypersonic missiles. They claim the Fatah-2 is hypersonic and includes a glide vehicle but it has never been demonstrated. The Lebanese claim is complete nonsense and propaganda. I am sure the Lebanese professor has many astonishing dreams.
p.p.p.p.s. Evolving strategic limitations: The United States will either establish and adhere to an informal detente with Iran and/or keep American carriers away from the Red Sea, the western Indian Ocean, and the eastern Mediterranean Sea, limiting American naval air power as a shield for Israel. I would also expect our Qatar airbase to be slowly downgraded, because of Iran's "unstoppable" Fatah missiles and upcoming improvements.
p.p.p.s. The closest American carrier to Iran is the Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Red Sea, perhaps just out of range of the "unstoppable" Fatah-2.
For an Iranian assessment (in a Lebanese-based publication) of the strategic importance to Iran of the Red Sea, see https://thecradle.co/articles-id/23944
p.s. Perhaps the demonstration of the Fatah-2 (the only missile type that penetrated Israel’s defenses?) took place as part of the attack.
Message to Israel and the world:
Iran's strike capability is more potent than you thought.
p.p.s.: These days, do American carriers stay out of range of the Fatah-2? If so, that would seem to be supporting evidence that we have little or no defense against them.
I would be interested to know the reasoning behind your dismissal of the claim of dozens of Mossad deaths as "complete nonsense and propaganda."
Do you deny the likelihood that the Nevatim airbase (with its robust and iron-clad missile defense) is a natural place for a Mossad base?
Do you deny that Iran demonstrated its capability of pin-point missile-strike accuracy in its earlier reprisal against an American military base in Iraq?
Do you deny that a Mossad facility would be a natural target for an Iranian counter-strike?
If you do not deny these three points, then your phrase "complete nonsense and propaganda" would seem to be a groundless, arbitrary refusal to deal with reality.
Iran target the facilities involved in the planning and attack in April which most sources say was the Iranian consulate.
➖Nevatim Airbase in the south of occupied Palestine
➖Ramon Airbase in the south of occupied Palestine
➖The Israeli top-secret intelligence-spy base in Jabal al-Sheikh (Mount Hermon) in the north of the occupied Golan
➖ Israeli Air Force intelligence HQ in Tel Aviv
(All had recorded missile impacts noted)
The Iranian military has not disclosed such data, but state TV claims the following was utilized:
🌏 "Hundreds" of "Shahed-136" kamikaze UAVs capable of flying 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles) at 185 km/h (115 mph) and carrying a 50 kg (110 lb) warhead;
🌏 "Emad" ballistic missiles, introduced by Iran in 2015, the largest Iranian missiles of this class – with a range of up to 1,700 km (1,050 miles). The shortest route from Iran to Israel is about 1,000 km or 620 miles via Iraq, Syria, and Jordan;
🌏 Other ballistic missiles without specification;
🌏 More than 30 Paveh cruise missiles (range of 1,650 km or 1,025 miles). Iranian media reported this data during a missile unveiling in February 2023, clarifying this missile is capable of reaching Israel.
This looks more like a slap back for the April attack, and a demonstration that they can get penetrate the best AD the west has to offer. That top of the line weapons were held back should make Israel and the US think thrice about any further confrontation no matter how Israeli/US media try to spin this. They have thousands of missiles in reserve many of which are in tunnels deep inside mountains. In 2022, U.S. Central Command's General Kenneth McKenzie stated that Iran possesses “over 3,000” ballistic missiles. This does not include the country’s burgeoning land-attack cruise missile force. (Independently estimating the size of Iran’s missile arsenal is difficult, given the paucity of reliable information relating to its missile quantities. The U.S. Air Force and some non-governmental organizations have released estimates in the past, but these lack specificity and usually only estimate the number of launchers, not the missiles themselves, since launchers are, in principle, easier to track and count. See “2020 Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat,” U.S. National Air and Space Intelligence Center, pp. 21, 25, January 2020, available at https://irp.fas.org/threat/missile/bm-2020.pdf)
That's my feeling too. Sending drones where you can take a few hours to react? I feel it's more like depleting resources, or "softly" touching the iron dome to see how it reacts?
Or maybe simply coaching Israel to overreact (doesn't need much), and achieve a PR victory against your enemy?
You send what you have and Iran has had good results with drone attacks even against US bases in Iraq and Syria. I don't buy the argument that Iran did not try its best. They shot off whatever they could. Most of this stuff is second guessing phantoms.
Another attack will be met by massive retaliation by Israel. What is this supposed to mean: "After attacking everyone in the region with impunity for the last 50 years" --who is everyone and how did Israel do that? Do you mean terrorists and responses to brazen attacks on Israel?
Yes and likewise Stephen attacked by Israel on Iran will be met with the devastating response via their hypersonics. So you will see the status quo has changed MAD now prevails.
not sure I would call this a failure on part of Iran. The response was measured and purposeful
Iran showed off its capabilities
1) that it can target Israel with multiple cheap drones that will require full engagement of the air defense systems that is not CHEAP. With further escalation
2) Supposedly, the strikes that made it through at Nevatim airbase were hypersonic missiles. If that is true, it showed its tech capabilities to penetrate air defenses. This would be significant
3) Politically, Iran provided an off ramp. It warned of an attack, thus preventing casualties. Everybody can declare a "victory" and an appropriate narrative. US understands the risk and costs of the further escalation and will pressure Natenyahu for a measured faced saving response potential limited to hitting Iranian proxies in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon
Not convinced that Natenyahu can be contained by Biden. The attacked made him look weak. If he chooses to hit Iran proper, the response will not be measured.
I would say it is a typical Iranian approach, it is not itching for an escalation and is comfortable at chipping away at US and Israel via its proxies, where so far it has been successful.
another take away is that one party hit military targets and avoided civilian casualties, the other party appears to be mostly killing women and children.
Not really. An attack like this rapidly depletes anti-missile ammo. This is exactly what the Russians did against Ukraine. Meanwhile years ago Gen. Qasem Soleimani, embarked on the process to turn dumb weapons into smart ones especially in Lebanon. Israel is surrounded by 100,000 such weapons. That's why assassinating Soleimani, was such a high priority. Don't count on the US having stocks and reserve . We don't.
HEADLINE: Military sources say Iran is refitting thousands of ‘dumb’ rockets in Syria and Lebanon so it can zero in on targets the length and breadth of Israel.
Interesting report Stephen, but why did you not mention the reason for Iran's attack (Article 51 response to an illegal attack on their Syrian embassy) or their statement following (advising that if Israel ceases further attacks then they will take no further action)?
I think that your statement that "no one accepts the Article 51 argument" is open to question, unless you limit your survey to NATO members and other U.S. allies.
I would like to see some evidence supporting your claim that "Iran has attacked multiple Israeli embassies around the world." That hasn't shown up on my radar screen, but I don't try to be comprehensive.
The building which was hit in Damascus was next to an embassy building, but was not itself part of the embassy and did not have protected diplomatic status. The continued reporting by major news organizations on this incident as an attack on a protected diplomatic facility is in my opinion purposely dishonest
I'm surprised nobody here has asked why Netanyahu attacked Iran in Damascus when he did.
The Americans claim they weren't warned and didn't find it helpful for their preferred way forward in the region.
Many including former security chiefs and senior politicians in Israel, and many outside (including me) believe that Netanyahu's top priority is maintaining a state of war, and so his position as PM and the temporary immunity from prosecution for corruption the position provides - perhaps he also hopes escalation might reverse the decline in public support (a classic abuse of armed force by politicians throughout history).
It the Damascus attack was a calculated provocation in Netanyahu's perceived self-interest, what is his logical next step?
Like Budanov in Ukraine he hopes to draw America into wider conflict, and both have ignored American pressure against escalation.
But the very strong signal that, as well as reconsidering some forms of support if Netanyahu crosses the red line at Rafah, America will not cooperate on any direct strikes on Iran, seems to constitute the most direct US leverage - or rather, attempted leverage - thus far.
Will it work any better in the far higher-stakes game with Netanyahu, after serially failing in Ukraine?
America wants, after all, to move on to an even bigger third theatre further East.
Well said. In both the embassy strike and the Iranian response we see the priority on politics and perception, on narrative control and playing specific audiences. But in both cases- UKR and ISRAEl, both nations realize they cannot defeat their adversary (Russia and Iran) without direct US involvement. And the USA, Russia, and Iran know this, hence all three trying to manage the escalation ladder that Budanov and Netanyahu keep trying to climb.
You can spin it whatever way you like, but it was a resounding win for Iran. Iran demonstrated to the world that Israel can be hit, even with the most sophisticated missile defence systems, even with US UK doing its defence and even with Arab minions coming to its rescue, most importantly even with a full week long prior information.
Iran sent a message that even the most protected israeli bases can be hit.
Secondly, with their obsession for casualties, it seems unfathomable for the Westerners, Israelis & their ideological supporters that only military targets can be hit without resorting to wanton destruction of civilian infrastructure and deliberate killing which is the modus operandi of zionists and NATO.
I reported the facts. How that is a win for Iran defies logic. How do you know where all the rockets and drones were heading and what their targets were? Did Iran share their targeting information with you??? Only one base was hit and the damage was minor. To my mind the air defenses all around performed well beyond expectations.
Did they share the information with you for that matter?
That's your view of it, which is of course clouded by the narrative of Israel's impregnability which unfortunately for zionists has been broken. Other sources, much better placed than you, have quoted US sources saying 5-7 ballistic missiles hit the base with damage to hangars, runway and aircrafts. To quote Bronn from Game of Thrones, "... give me 10 good men with few good spikes and i will impregnate the bitch." Iran demonstrated that.
And by the tone and rhetoric of your comments i am more than sure that the missiles really did what Bronn claimed is possible ;) 😉
My view is based on facts not on ideology. The damage to Nevatim air base was minor. I don't know what US sources you are quoting. Iran's attacks mainly failed.
According to American military analyst Michael Maloof, as a result of Iran's attack (which did succeed in penetrating Israel’s American-supported defense shield), the 35 U.S. military bases near Iran are now a "vulnerable Achilles heel."
Mainstream media doesn’t tell us this: Simple list of what happened. Simple description. Our media lies to us. Reality is carefully curated. The entirety of mainstream media is a fraud.
Draw your own conclusions...see other comments below regarding targets, hits, overall assessment. I respectfully disagree with the author based on multiple sources that have video confirmation and not "IDF said" ; we are all entitled to our points of view no?
Your comment said there were no other accurate sources, I gave you one. I'm sure if you look at war on the rocks they'll have similar coverage. The fact that media is manipulative is barely worth making. Otherwise you wouldn't be looking for independent writers
Alexander Mercouris at the Duran has reported that the U.S. negotiated with the Iranians prior to the retaliation, an agreement defining the scope of Iran's response in order to avoid a regional conflict. That would mean destruction and casualties in Israel would be very limited and largely symbolic.
Alexander is a bright fellow who makes up stuff he knows nothing about. The US did not negotiate with Iran on what they would fire at Israel. That is pure nonsense. I think the administration tried to convince Iran to do as little as possible: but the attack was massive. I don't understand how rational people think otherwise. More ideology than fact.
Never believe the Israeli press. It is highly politicized and capable of just as much BS as is ours. Iran did not give detailed information at all. Where did that come from???
At around 11 p.m. local time Saturday in Israel, Iran declared that it was launching a swarm of drones and missiles toward Israel. Around the same time, Israel’s military said more than 100 drones were headed toward the country.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quickly convened Israel’s war cabinet—a group formed for the war with Hamas in Gaza. The Israeli military declared the Iranian attack to be “a severe and dangerous escalation.”
Iran and Israel are more than 1,000 miles apart—giving Israel around nine hours to prepare for the arrival of the drones or intercept them en route.
Iran penetrated every missile shield manned and operated by NATO itself, with all the trappings and advanced C4ISR and SIGINT capabilities inherent to the entire Western alliance; from THAAD, to Patriot, David’s Sling, Arrow-3, SM-3, Iron Dome, and even ‘C-Dome’ from Israeli corvettes—not to mention the entire complement of the West’s most advanced A2A defenses flown from F-35s, Typhoons, Eurofighters, and likely much more. How many were drones and older generations of missiles? How much were AD stocks of the IDF/US AD depleted by this "slap"? Going with your "300" (out of THOUSANDS), it is few. Cost estimates range from less than $20 million for Iran and as much as $1.3 billion for Israel/US. How long will it Israel/US take to replace them?
According to "US Defense Official", Iran hit 2 airbases in southern Israelis acknowledges Nevatim Airbase was hit 7 times.
It seems clear from multiple sources that not just one or two airbases were hit.
Iran’s stated goal for the operation was to strike back at the bases from which the Israeli consular attack was launched on April 1rst.
It has listed its objectives for the missile attack: Ramon and Nevatim airbases (where attack on Iran Consulate was conducted from). Israeli Air Force intelligence HQ in Tel Aviv (where attack on Iran Consulate was planned) and degrading of Israeli air defense radars and assets. Impacts were recorded in all 4 target areas, though damage assessment is not appreciated.
➖Nevatim Airbase in the south of occupied Palestine
➖Ramon Airbase in the south of occupied Palestine
➖The Israeli top-secret intelligence-spy base in Jabal al-Sheikh (Mount Hermon) in the north of the occupied Golan
It appears the Iranians learned they could easily saturate and overwhelm Israel AD including support provided from USN, the UK, and France using 3 waves of vehicle launches (drones, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles). Israel spins the number of shot down ...slow subsonic drones, rockets, and cruise missiles...WOW! That's what their Iron Dome is designed for--to catch either very slow drones or slow easily calculable ballistic trajectory Katyusha rockets. What must not be overlooked is the fact of extremely well documented penetration of the vaunted, a euphemism for grossly embellished, Israeli AD by modern ballistic and, as Iran reports, hypersonic missiles. This was the main strike weapon and it did its job; symbolic punishment of Israel and it did succeed. Big time. Iran has demonstrated that in case of real war it can overwhelm the "state-of-the-art" Israeli/NATO they will be unable to do anything about it short of using nuclear weapons.
Based on the Ukraine experience of the "best and brightest" US planners' appraisal of Russian capabilities, I'd say our leaders shouldn't plan more than a picnic..and the IDF a Bat Mitzvah (based on the disaster in Gaza)!
Stephen, Alexander said that yesterday's Financial Times reported all the negotiations going back and forth between the U.S., Iran and Israel. I don't have a subscription to the Financial Times so I cannot read the article. Maybe you can?
If A Mercouris,,,he is FOHA...a disbarred lawyer...full of himself. In terms of believing Israel's damage assessments you might as well believe the Ukrainians about their winning against the Russians...same garbage as accepting what Israel tells you! (Liars, liars, pants-on-fire!)
Not sure what you mean! 12,000 to 15,000 Jews live in Iran per best estimates. They are very content to live there despite Israeli efforts to entice them to move to Israel (including substantial CASH payments). What "Zionists"?
Israel, by provoking the Iranian reprisal after its attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, has exposed Israeli (and American) weakness, as discussed on the following thread:
"The Iranians did not knock out any of the air defenses protecting Israel" but would a prolonged bombing campaign by Iran be sustainable for Israel financially and in terms of its anti-aircraft missile stocks?
And would Iran have the means to carry out a prolonged bombardment campaign?
"The cost of Israel’s interception of Iran’s missile and drone barrage on Saturday was estimated at 2.1 billion Israeli shekels, or more than $550 million. The estimate--by Yehoshua Kalisky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, a think tank in Tel Aviv--takes into account expenses associated with intercepting half of the Iranian missiles and drones, including the use of the David’s Sling air-defense system, and also takes into account the cost of keeping 100 Israeli warplanes in the air for six hours, including fuel and weapons.
“These are enormous costs,” said Kalisky, who added that they were comparable to costs in major wars fought by Israel such as the 1973 Arab-Israeli War. Saturday's price tag was unlikely to have an immediate or long-term negative impact on Israel's economy, Kalisky said. "
This was absolutely not a fantastic win for Israel quite the contrary. Simplicius the thinker Notes the Iranians introduced hypersonics into the mix, this means that nuclear research facilities can be attacked. In effect, the Iranians now have a counter to Israeli nuclear weapons by detonating large scale dirty bombs in attacks on nuclear research facilities .
At the same time, Iran used a lot of cheap drones that forced Israel to expend $1 billion or more to take down these decoys. A few more rounds of this and the Israeli are going to be in the same position Zelenski's in.
Reality has caught up with the propaganda in Ukraine; and it won't be long before it catches up to the propaganda in Israel.
Disagree. Id Iran fired anything radioactive at Israel it would be obliterated by Israeli nukes. Iran completely failed on this one, which is perfectly obvious. Iran also used over 100 ballistic missiles and more than 30 cruise missiles. These are not cheap. As I recall, Zelensky does not have an Air Force or F35s or a real navy or submarines... etc etc. What do you mean propaganda in Israel? Rethink your propositions.
This morning Colonel Dan Davis (RET) confirmed that seven hypersonics DID penetrate Israeli A.D. and hit their targets. "I" have extrapolated that technological success to indicate that Iran has achieved Mutually Assured Destruction status with Israel. That means that if Israel attacks Iran with nuclear weapons the Iranians can retaliate in a way that causes catastrophic destruction of Israel. I point to the fact that hypersonics could penetrate nuclear research facilities and storage areas, turning them, in effect, into a very large dirty bomb that would devastate the whole of Israel. But other scenarios are just as fatal.
In SUM: for the first time Israel can no longer brandish nuclear weapons to deter being overwhelmed by conventional weapons attacks from Iran and, closer in, from Hizbollah and other allies. This is a major inflection point --a tipping point in fact--that Israel ignores at its extreme peril.
Problem is: Had Iran the right to retaliate? Or do that right belong only to Israel and the evil Empire?
My point of view: you guys are forgetting, txs to the propaganda machine and mental warfare, what was happening during last years of WWII, but I remind you:
"For every nazi soldier killed by European partizans, Nazi were killing 15/20 civilians"
Now who's the Nazi here? Who is using those proportions or even triple them in retaliation?
Just remember that Iran has about 999,500 missile and drones left. This was more of a message than an attack.
Not possible. Where did you come up with that number? It was hardly a message, it was a strong military attack.
Arrant nonsense, it was a proof of concept and the reactions will be studied closely. One assumes you are champing at the bit for Israel "retaliation". Maybe try again in a day or two.
it was not a proof of concept --it was a huge attack. Stop making stuff up about what I think. I hate it when people imply things they pull out of the air.
I have read that Iran used seven hypersonic missiles to hit three designated targets, and all the rest was shot down by a billion dollars worth of Israeli/western air defense, which would seem to be a Phyrric victory.
According to a Lebanese professor (per Sputnik), the Iranian strike killed 44 Mossad agents at the Nevatim airbase.
Who knows?? I would like to see verification or rebuttal of the above.
They don't have operational hypersonic missiles. They claim the Fatah-2 is hypersonic and includes a glide vehicle but it has never been demonstrated. The Lebanese claim is complete nonsense and propaganda. I am sure the Lebanese professor has many astonishing dreams.
p.p.p.p.s. Evolving strategic limitations: The United States will either establish and adhere to an informal detente with Iran and/or keep American carriers away from the Red Sea, the western Indian Ocean, and the eastern Mediterranean Sea, limiting American naval air power as a shield for Israel. I would also expect our Qatar airbase to be slowly downgraded, because of Iran's "unstoppable" Fatah missiles and upcoming improvements.
p.p.p.s. The closest American carrier to Iran is the Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Red Sea, perhaps just out of range of the "unstoppable" Fatah-2.
For an Iranian assessment (in a Lebanese-based publication) of the strategic importance to Iran of the Red Sea, see https://thecradle.co/articles-id/23944
p.s. Perhaps the demonstration of the Fatah-2 (the only missile type that penetrated Israel’s defenses?) took place as part of the attack.
Message to Israel and the world:
Iran's strike capability is more potent than you thought.
p.p.s.: These days, do American carriers stay out of range of the Fatah-2? If so, that would seem to be supporting evidence that we have little or no defense against them.
Carrier tracker
https://news.usni.org/2024/04/15/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-april-15-2024
I would be interested to know the reasoning behind your dismissal of the claim of dozens of Mossad deaths as "complete nonsense and propaganda."
Do you deny the likelihood that the Nevatim airbase (with its robust and iron-clad missile defense) is a natural place for a Mossad base?
Do you deny that Iran demonstrated its capability of pin-point missile-strike accuracy in its earlier reprisal against an American military base in Iraq?
Do you deny that a Mossad facility would be a natural target for an Iranian counter-strike?
If you do not deny these three points, then your phrase "complete nonsense and propaganda" would seem to be a groundless, arbitrary refusal to deal with reality.
Iran target the facilities involved in the planning and attack in April which most sources say was the Iranian consulate.
➖Nevatim Airbase in the south of occupied Palestine
➖Ramon Airbase in the south of occupied Palestine
➖The Israeli top-secret intelligence-spy base in Jabal al-Sheikh (Mount Hermon) in the north of the occupied Golan
➖ Israeli Air Force intelligence HQ in Tel Aviv
(All had recorded missile impacts noted)
The Iranian military has not disclosed such data, but state TV claims the following was utilized:
🌏 "Hundreds" of "Shahed-136" kamikaze UAVs capable of flying 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles) at 185 km/h (115 mph) and carrying a 50 kg (110 lb) warhead;
🌏 "Emad" ballistic missiles, introduced by Iran in 2015, the largest Iranian missiles of this class – with a range of up to 1,700 km (1,050 miles). The shortest route from Iran to Israel is about 1,000 km or 620 miles via Iraq, Syria, and Jordan;
🌏 Other ballistic missiles without specification;
🌏 More than 30 Paveh cruise missiles (range of 1,650 km or 1,025 miles). Iranian media reported this data during a missile unveiling in February 2023, clarifying this missile is capable of reaching Israel.
This looks more like a slap back for the April attack, and a demonstration that they can get penetrate the best AD the west has to offer. That top of the line weapons were held back should make Israel and the US think thrice about any further confrontation no matter how Israeli/US media try to spin this. They have thousands of missiles in reserve many of which are in tunnels deep inside mountains. In 2022, U.S. Central Command's General Kenneth McKenzie stated that Iran possesses “over 3,000” ballistic missiles. This does not include the country’s burgeoning land-attack cruise missile force. (Independently estimating the size of Iran’s missile arsenal is difficult, given the paucity of reliable information relating to its missile quantities. The U.S. Air Force and some non-governmental organizations have released estimates in the past, but these lack specificity and usually only estimate the number of launchers, not the missiles themselves, since launchers are, in principle, easier to track and count. See “2020 Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat,” U.S. National Air and Space Intelligence Center, pp. 21, 25, January 2020, available at https://irp.fas.org/threat/missile/bm-2020.pdf)
https://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/weapon-program-background-report/table-irans-missile-arsenal
Thanks for the summary.
Success or failure.. too soon to say. We don't know yet what the intention of Iran was. Maybe they just wanted to test Israeli air defenses?
That's my feeling too. Sending drones where you can take a few hours to react? I feel it's more like depleting resources, or "softly" touching the iron dome to see how it reacts?
Or maybe simply coaching Israel to overreact (doesn't need much), and achieve a PR victory against your enemy?
You send what you have and Iran has had good results with drone attacks even against US bases in Iraq and Syria. I don't buy the argument that Iran did not try its best. They shot off whatever they could. Most of this stuff is second guessing phantoms.
1) Israel will run out of missile defense ordinance long before its enemies run out of drones, rockets and missiles.
2) Even if Israel could magically keep its air defenses fully stocked, it can't afford to defend itself against many more attacks like this.
After attacking everyone in the region with impunity for the last 50 years, Israel now sees that the shoe is on the other foot.
Karma is a bitch.
Another attack will be met by massive retaliation by Israel. What is this supposed to mean: "After attacking everyone in the region with impunity for the last 50 years" --who is everyone and how did Israel do that? Do you mean terrorists and responses to brazen attacks on Israel?
Yes and likewise Stephen attacked by Israel on Iran will be met with the devastating response via their hypersonics. So you will see the status quo has changed MAD now prevails.
It must suck to be an IDF boot licker, but if it pays the bills, good on you;
I think what ZOG means is they want to die
https://sputnikglobe.com/20240411/why-iranian-missiles-can-hit-targets-in-israel-despite-gps-jamming-1117873743.html
$100 USD 50+ year old lawn-mower engine 50km-hr 'drone' V2 German era design, +300 depoyed on Israel
Each missile that Israel used cost $50k to shoot-down
This is why houthis won in Yemen,
If Iran did this every night for a month Israel would have not even rocks to throw
1) Israel will run out of missile defense ordinance long before its enemies run out of drones, rockets and missiles.
2) Even if Israel could magically keep its air defenses fully stocked, it can't afford to defend itself against many more attacks like this.
After attacking everyone in the region with impunity for the last 50 years, Israel now sees that the shoe is on the other foot.
Karma is a bitch.
Hmmmmm. This is not unlike what happened in Afghanistan.
700+ bases worldwide, most of them in Africa, MENA, Persia, & Arabia
They are all targets
Recently they just ran from their 'green-zone' a 5 sq-mile embassy that was really just a pedophile R&R center; Which is why the locals hated them
not sure I would call this a failure on part of Iran. The response was measured and purposeful
Iran showed off its capabilities
1) that it can target Israel with multiple cheap drones that will require full engagement of the air defense systems that is not CHEAP. With further escalation
2) Supposedly, the strikes that made it through at Nevatim airbase were hypersonic missiles. If that is true, it showed its tech capabilities to penetrate air defenses. This would be significant
3) Politically, Iran provided an off ramp. It warned of an attack, thus preventing casualties. Everybody can declare a "victory" and an appropriate narrative. US understands the risk and costs of the further escalation and will pressure Natenyahu for a measured faced saving response potential limited to hitting Iranian proxies in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon
Not convinced that Natenyahu can be contained by Biden. The attacked made him look weak. If he chooses to hit Iran proper, the response will not be measured.
I would say it is a typical Iranian approach, it is not itching for an escalation and is comfortable at chipping away at US and Israel via its proxies, where so far it has been successful.
another take away is that one party hit military targets and avoided civilian casualties, the other party appears to be mostly killing women and children.
"You got a win. Take the win" said Biden.
Not really. An attack like this rapidly depletes anti-missile ammo. This is exactly what the Russians did against Ukraine. Meanwhile years ago Gen. Qasem Soleimani, embarked on the process to turn dumb weapons into smart ones especially in Lebanon. Israel is surrounded by 100,000 such weapons. That's why assassinating Soleimani, was such a high priority. Don't count on the US having stocks and reserve . We don't.
HEADLINE: Military sources say Iran is refitting thousands of ‘dumb’ rockets in Syria and Lebanon so it can zero in on targets the length and breadth of Israel.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/to-target-israel-irans-suitcase-gps-kits-turn-hezbollah-rockets-into-guided-missiles
Of course Israel has one ace in the hole. They could launch nuclear weapons on Iran. Who knows? Biden could be backing that last resort as well.
Interesting report Stephen, but why did you not mention the reason for Iran's attack (Article 51 response to an illegal attack on their Syrian embassy) or their statement following (advising that if Israel ceases further attacks then they will take no further action)?
I don't deal in propaganda.
No one accepts the Article 51 argument.
Iran has attacked multiple Israeli embassies around the globe. Should Israel invoke article 51 and attack Iran????
As for Iran's statement, Washington does not want any attack on Iran, so probably none will happen right away.
The only important thing is that this not escalate. Hopefully, the very few cool heads in Washington prevail.
<Insert laugh emoji here>
I think that your statement that "no one accepts the Article 51 argument" is open to question, unless you limit your survey to NATO members and other U.S. allies.
I would like to see some evidence supporting your claim that "Iran has attacked multiple Israeli embassies around the world." That hasn't shown up on my radar screen, but I don't try to be comprehensive.
The building which was hit in Damascus was next to an embassy building, but was not itself part of the embassy and did not have protected diplomatic status. The continued reporting by major news organizations on this incident as an attack on a protected diplomatic facility is in my opinion purposely dishonest
Are you saying that a consulate doesn't have protected diplomatic status?
Cell phone photos and clips might be more illustrative. No government is trustworthy at this time.
I'm surprised nobody here has asked why Netanyahu attacked Iran in Damascus when he did.
The Americans claim they weren't warned and didn't find it helpful for their preferred way forward in the region.
Many including former security chiefs and senior politicians in Israel, and many outside (including me) believe that Netanyahu's top priority is maintaining a state of war, and so his position as PM and the temporary immunity from prosecution for corruption the position provides - perhaps he also hopes escalation might reverse the decline in public support (a classic abuse of armed force by politicians throughout history).
It the Damascus attack was a calculated provocation in Netanyahu's perceived self-interest, what is his logical next step?
Like Budanov in Ukraine he hopes to draw America into wider conflict, and both have ignored American pressure against escalation.
But the very strong signal that, as well as reconsidering some forms of support if Netanyahu crosses the red line at Rafah, America will not cooperate on any direct strikes on Iran, seems to constitute the most direct US leverage - or rather, attempted leverage - thus far.
Will it work any better in the far higher-stakes game with Netanyahu, after serially failing in Ukraine?
America wants, after all, to move on to an even bigger third theatre further East.
Well said. In both the embassy strike and the Iranian response we see the priority on politics and perception, on narrative control and playing specific audiences. But in both cases- UKR and ISRAEl, both nations realize they cannot defeat their adversary (Russia and Iran) without direct US involvement. And the USA, Russia, and Iran know this, hence all three trying to manage the escalation ladder that Budanov and Netanyahu keep trying to climb.
You can spin it whatever way you like, but it was a resounding win for Iran. Iran demonstrated to the world that Israel can be hit, even with the most sophisticated missile defence systems, even with US UK doing its defence and even with Arab minions coming to its rescue, most importantly even with a full week long prior information.
Iran sent a message that even the most protected israeli bases can be hit.
Secondly, with their obsession for casualties, it seems unfathomable for the Westerners, Israelis & their ideological supporters that only military targets can be hit without resorting to wanton destruction of civilian infrastructure and deliberate killing which is the modus operandi of zionists and NATO.
I reported the facts. How that is a win for Iran defies logic. How do you know where all the rockets and drones were heading and what their targets were? Did Iran share their targeting information with you??? Only one base was hit and the damage was minor. To my mind the air defenses all around performed well beyond expectations.
Did they share the information with you for that matter?
That's your view of it, which is of course clouded by the narrative of Israel's impregnability which unfortunately for zionists has been broken. Other sources, much better placed than you, have quoted US sources saying 5-7 ballistic missiles hit the base with damage to hangars, runway and aircrafts. To quote Bronn from Game of Thrones, "... give me 10 good men with few good spikes and i will impregnate the bitch." Iran demonstrated that.
And by the tone and rhetoric of your comments i am more than sure that the missiles really did what Bronn claimed is possible ;) 😉
My view is based on facts not on ideology. The damage to Nevatim air base was minor. I don't know what US sources you are quoting. Iran's attacks mainly failed.
According to American military analyst Michael Maloof, as a result of Iran's attack (which did succeed in penetrating Israel’s American-supported defense shield), the 35 U.S. military bases near Iran are now a "vulnerable Achilles heel."
https://twitter.com/SputnikInt/status/1779407837896056939
Point of order: why only this man?
Mainstream media doesn’t tell us this: Simple list of what happened. Simple description. Our media lies to us. Reality is carefully curated. The entirety of mainstream media is a fraud.
The FT has essentially the same info
FT is about as "reliable" as the NYT for Christ's sake!
But yet it mostly agrees with this article....
Draw your own conclusions...see other comments below regarding targets, hits, overall assessment. I respectfully disagree with the author based on multiple sources that have video confirmation and not "IDF said" ; we are all entitled to our points of view no?
Ok, but generally we are being manipulated, yes?
Your comment said there were no other accurate sources, I gave you one. I'm sure if you look at war on the rocks they'll have similar coverage. The fact that media is manipulative is barely worth making. Otherwise you wouldn't be looking for independent writers
Try to be nice
Alexander Mercouris at the Duran has reported that the U.S. negotiated with the Iranians prior to the retaliation, an agreement defining the scope of Iran's response in order to avoid a regional conflict. That would mean destruction and casualties in Israel would be very limited and largely symbolic.
Alexander is a bright fellow who makes up stuff he knows nothing about. The US did not negotiate with Iran on what they would fire at Israel. That is pure nonsense. I think the administration tried to convince Iran to do as little as possible: but the attack was massive. I don't understand how rational people think otherwise. More ideology than fact.
It's in the Israeli press, IRAN gave detailed info to ALL partys +72 hours in advance
Even told them they were going to use slow drones with lawn-mower engines
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-called-off-retaliatory-strike-on-iran-after-call-with-biden-new-york-times/
Never believe the Israeli press. It is highly politicized and capable of just as much BS as is ours. Iran did not give detailed information at all. Where did that come from???
Agreed; other sources such as cell phone videos made at multiple locations suggest multiple targets were indeed impacted by ballistic (and likely hypersonic) missiles. From what sources are you concluding "one airfield hit"? I think the overarching point is that Iran retaliated with impunity (so far), the US is "not supportive" of Israel retaliating, and Iran has shown it can indeed strike targets in Israel; it apparently only used a few top tier weapons in its large missile arsenal. https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/iran/#:~:text=Iran%20possesses%20the%20largest%20and%20most%20diverse%20missile,striking%20as%20far%20as%20Israel%20and%20southeast%20Europe.
There were no hypersonic missiles and no other important damage is reported. 300 is not "a few."
Advance notice seems to have been provided per the WSJ (reprinted by MSM) https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iran-s-attack-on-israel-what-happened-and-why/ar-BB1lDHpu
At around 11 p.m. local time Saturday in Israel, Iran declared that it was launching a swarm of drones and missiles toward Israel. Around the same time, Israel’s military said more than 100 drones were headed toward the country.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quickly convened Israel’s war cabinet—a group formed for the war with Hamas in Gaza. The Israeli military declared the Iranian attack to be “a severe and dangerous escalation.”
Iran and Israel are more than 1,000 miles apart—giving Israel around nine hours to prepare for the arrival of the drones or intercept them en route.
Iran penetrated every missile shield manned and operated by NATO itself, with all the trappings and advanced C4ISR and SIGINT capabilities inherent to the entire Western alliance; from THAAD, to Patriot, David’s Sling, Arrow-3, SM-3, Iron Dome, and even ‘C-Dome’ from Israeli corvettes—not to mention the entire complement of the West’s most advanced A2A defenses flown from F-35s, Typhoons, Eurofighters, and likely much more. How many were drones and older generations of missiles? How much were AD stocks of the IDF/US AD depleted by this "slap"? Going with your "300" (out of THOUSANDS), it is few. Cost estimates range from less than $20 million for Iran and as much as $1.3 billion for Israel/US. How long will it Israel/US take to replace them?
According to "US Defense Official", Iran hit 2 airbases in southern Israelis acknowledges Nevatim Airbase was hit 7 times.
It seems clear from multiple sources that not just one or two airbases were hit.
Iran’s stated goal for the operation was to strike back at the bases from which the Israeli consular attack was launched on April 1rst.
It has listed its objectives for the missile attack: Ramon and Nevatim airbases (where attack on Iran Consulate was conducted from). Israeli Air Force intelligence HQ in Tel Aviv (where attack on Iran Consulate was planned) and degrading of Israeli air defense radars and assets. Impacts were recorded in all 4 target areas, though damage assessment is not appreciated.
➖Nevatim Airbase in the south of occupied Palestine
➖Ramon Airbase in the south of occupied Palestine
➖The Israeli top-secret intelligence-spy base in Jabal al-Sheikh (Mount Hermon) in the north of the occupied Golan
➖ Israeli Air Force intelligence HQ in Tel Aviv
(According to ex-CIA analyst Larry Johnson's blog https://sonar21.com/israel-suffers-major-blow-as-iran-puts-west-on-notice/ )
It appears the Iranians learned they could easily saturate and overwhelm Israel AD including support provided from USN, the UK, and France using 3 waves of vehicle launches (drones, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles). Israel spins the number of shot down ...slow subsonic drones, rockets, and cruise missiles...WOW! That's what their Iron Dome is designed for--to catch either very slow drones or slow easily calculable ballistic trajectory Katyusha rockets. What must not be overlooked is the fact of extremely well documented penetration of the vaunted, a euphemism for grossly embellished, Israeli AD by modern ballistic and, as Iran reports, hypersonic missiles. This was the main strike weapon and it did its job; symbolic punishment of Israel and it did succeed. Big time. Iran has demonstrated that in case of real war it can overwhelm the "state-of-the-art" Israeli/NATO they will be unable to do anything about it short of using nuclear weapons.
Based on the Ukraine experience of the "best and brightest" US planners' appraisal of Russian capabilities, I'd say our leaders shouldn't plan more than a picnic..and the IDF a Bat Mitzvah (based on the disaster in Gaza)!
Stephen, Alexander said that yesterday's Financial Times reported all the negotiations going back and forth between the U.S., Iran and Israel. I don't have a subscription to the Financial Times so I cannot read the article. Maybe you can?
There were not any negotiations. There were statements. No deals were made and no one in authority made any. The notion is preposterous.
"Don't look behind that curtain!!!"
--The Wizard of Oz
What is his background? Was he a journalist at one time? Stephen, are you surprised that so little damage was done as you reveal?
If A Mercouris,,,he is FOHA...a disbarred lawyer...full of himself. In terms of believing Israel's damage assessments you might as well believe the Ukrainians about their winning against the Russians...same garbage as accepting what Israel tells you! (Liars, liars, pants-on-fire!)
BINGO while I agree that MERCOUIS & UK are all Homo Cucks
He's right on this one,
I always try to remind people there are more ZIONISTS in IRan than Israel & NYC combined
Not sure what you mean! 12,000 to 15,000 Jews live in Iran per best estimates. They are very content to live there despite Israeli efforts to entice them to move to Israel (including substantial CASH payments). What "Zionists"?
Air traffic is reopened in Israel? It seems like the attack turned out to be an inconvenience.
I don't think so. It was a hugely dangerous event. I would not use "inconvenience" to describe the situation.
Israel, by provoking the Iranian reprisal after its attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, has exposed Israeli (and American) weakness, as discussed on the following thread:
https://weapons.substack.com/p/preliminary-results-of-irans-attack/comment/53974804
"The Iranians did not knock out any of the air defenses protecting Israel" but would a prolonged bombing campaign by Iran be sustainable for Israel financially and in terms of its anti-aircraft missile stocks?
And would Iran have the means to carry out a prolonged bombardment campaign?
Hard to speculate as Israel would go and try and smash all of Iran's capability. It is not a one way street.
"The cost of Israel’s interception of Iran’s missile and drone barrage on Saturday was estimated at 2.1 billion Israeli shekels, or more than $550 million. The estimate--by Yehoshua Kalisky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, a think tank in Tel Aviv--takes into account expenses associated with intercepting half of the Iranian missiles and drones, including the use of the David’s Sling air-defense system, and also takes into account the cost of keeping 100 Israeli warplanes in the air for six hours, including fuel and weapons.
“These are enormous costs,” said Kalisky, who added that they were comparable to costs in major wars fought by Israel such as the 1973 Arab-Israeli War. Saturday's price tag was unlikely to have an immediate or long-term negative impact on Israel's economy, Kalisky said. "
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-iran-strikes-live-coverage/card/israel-s-cost-of-intercepting-iranian-barrage-is-put-at-over-550-million-uamrOjZkoRBNGRfjWbD6
This was absolutely not a fantastic win for Israel quite the contrary. Simplicius the thinker Notes the Iranians introduced hypersonics into the mix, this means that nuclear research facilities can be attacked. In effect, the Iranians now have a counter to Israeli nuclear weapons by detonating large scale dirty bombs in attacks on nuclear research facilities .
At the same time, Iran used a lot of cheap drones that forced Israel to expend $1 billion or more to take down these decoys. A few more rounds of this and the Israeli are going to be in the same position Zelenski's in.
Reality has caught up with the propaganda in Ukraine; and it won't be long before it catches up to the propaganda in Israel.
Disagree. Id Iran fired anything radioactive at Israel it would be obliterated by Israeli nukes. Iran completely failed on this one, which is perfectly obvious. Iran also used over 100 ballistic missiles and more than 30 cruise missiles. These are not cheap. As I recall, Zelensky does not have an Air Force or F35s or a real navy or submarines... etc etc. What do you mean propaganda in Israel? Rethink your propositions.
This morning Colonel Dan Davis (RET) confirmed that seven hypersonics DID penetrate Israeli A.D. and hit their targets. "I" have extrapolated that technological success to indicate that Iran has achieved Mutually Assured Destruction status with Israel. That means that if Israel attacks Iran with nuclear weapons the Iranians can retaliate in a way that causes catastrophic destruction of Israel. I point to the fact that hypersonics could penetrate nuclear research facilities and storage areas, turning them, in effect, into a very large dirty bomb that would devastate the whole of Israel. But other scenarios are just as fatal.
In SUM: for the first time Israel can no longer brandish nuclear weapons to deter being overwhelmed by conventional weapons attacks from Iran and, closer in, from Hizbollah and other allies. This is a major inflection point --a tipping point in fact--that Israel ignores at its extreme peril.
We've shared your link.
A Skeptic War Reports
https://askeptic.substack.com/p/war-reports-2024-04-15
Problem is: Had Iran the right to retaliate? Or do that right belong only to Israel and the evil Empire?
My point of view: you guys are forgetting, txs to the propaganda machine and mental warfare, what was happening during last years of WWII, but I remind you:
"For every nazi soldier killed by European partizans, Nazi were killing 15/20 civilians"
Now who's the Nazi here? Who is using those proportions or even triple them in retaliation?
Iran? Not
Hamas? Not
Lebanon? Not
Syria? Not
Iraq? Not
Israel? YES
USA? YES
So, who's the Neo Nazi today?
Nice Rebus! 😅