Next step: Israel gets bolder and starts hitting more Iranian targets. Russia delivers S400s to Syria, which would down those pesky planes, igniting Israel to retaliate even more. Lest they loose (even more) face. Finally the Arab nations get fed up with the little warmonger and decide to economically blockade them (at first). US provides relief efforts. Inevitably one of their planes/ships would get hit. Igniting a larger response. Then everything escalates and the world just goes down in flames.
More likely, Sunni Arab states see Iran as a mortal threat and extend their military cooperation with Israel, Russian military hardware like S-400 adds a laugh track to match its recent combat record and everyone in the Middle East looks at the economic consequences of being Iran's ally (see Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and their standard of living).
Meanwhile the only $550 billion high-tech economy in the Middle East adds new customers for defense, machine learning and microchip industries.
Turkey has questioned its effectiveness, despite buying it.
Russian-operated S-400 systems in Syria have not intercepted any Israeli aircraft conducting missions there, although this may be due to deconfliction agreements between Israel and Russia.
"Maybe the reason is not the S-400, but the Turks? They don't know how to use the system"
Turkey bought the system, along with training from Russia and there's far less alcoholism in the Turkish military and society than in Russia, so I would think the Turkish S-400 systems would be the best in the world.
The big news is that Israel’s ability to strike at will - without consequence for Israel -in the region is gone. This is a strategic reverse for Israel, along with its inability to defeat the Palestinian resistance in Gaza -despite Israel’s targeted mass murder of Palestinian women, children ,medics and journalists. On top of that Israel’s economy - as measured by GDP - has shrunk by about 20%, the Galilee is being abandoned by the settlers , and hundreds of thousands of jewish Israelis are quietly leaving Israel.
Israel is over, and so western ‘analysts’ discussion about the superiority of Israel’s boys toys - fighter jets, tanks, missiles - misses that.
The desperate scrabble by this article’s author to big-up a small quad copter attack, and some Israeli ‘fireworks ‘in Iraq is Israeli high dosage hasbara copium .
Israel is committing national suicide preceded by self immolation. Long may that continue .
"It may be that Israel, along with trying to ward off heavy internal pressure for an answer to Iran's massive blitz on Israel, was sending a message to the Iranians on just how vulnerable Iran was to Israel's Air Force."
As you recently noted, without the assistance of the United States and three or four other countries, Israel is just as vulnerable as Iran is to air attack. The US doesn't need to be dragged into a war and Biden doesn't need this now if he wants to get reelected. As it is, Gaza already is a millstone around his neck.
Iran still says specifically that they do not want nuclear weapons.
I believe that they recently said that they would reconsider this stance if Israel attacked their nuclear facilities. I also believe that they are close enough to "breakout" now that if the Islamic Republic announced that they in fact possessed nuclear weapons, everyone would have to assume that that was true.
Quite frankly, you would be naive not to have any after what NATO did to Gaddafi.
He surrendered all his WOMDs and then they killed him. North Korea learned from that and acquired nuclear weapons in no time. The only life insurance there is really.
Don't know, don't care, primitive culture that was still illiterate 2,000 years after Aristotle founded his Academy of Philosophy in Athens.
South Korea citizens have much better freedom, consumer goods and standard of living than North Koreans, who are now stuck in the regime protected by that nuclear umbrella.
Have you ever considered enjoying a better life by moving to North Korea or Cuba? Why not follow through on your convictions?
I find it curious that whereas the author was quick to proclaim Iran's missile attack as a "failure", no such assessment is made here; both attacks had little tactical impact. However unlike the Israeli attack, Iran's attack represents a significant strategic victory which changes the military calculus in the region.
The man speaking is Chas Freeman, former Assistant Secretary of Defense and, very relevant to the topic, former US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia. He's interviewed by @PLottaz, an Associate Professor at Kyoto University in Japan (this is the full video of the interview: https://youtube.com/watch?v=jLai2YG4NRc). (Arnaud Bertand's "X" thread)
What Freeman argues is that Iran's strike "changes all the rules of the game in the Middle-East". The biggest deal for him is that "the Saudis, the Emiratis and others informed the United States that they would not permit American operations against Iran from their territory and Iran warned those states that if they did, they would become targets. So in a sense, Iran has achieved the neutralization of American forces in the Persian gulf that it long sought. So from a tactical military point of view it was a 'nothing burger' - nobody was killed, nobody was damaged - [...] but from a strategic point of view, from a soft power point of view, it was a huge success. Iran accomplished its objective and it left Israel with an intolerable dilemma. Israel cannot continue to behave as though it can act with impunity.
"It may be that Israel, along with trying to ward off heavy internal pressure for an answer to Iran's massive blitz on Israel, was sending a message to the Iranians on just how vulnerable Iran was to Israel's Air Force. In addition, Israel may have been testing if Iran's continued and public threats to hit Israel again were real threats or just bluster."
Good summary.
But you could almost turn it round to describe the Iranian attack on Israel last weekend.
In some ways the standoff is more symmetric than many think.
Thanks for the details of a situation where the descriptions and explanations have varied considerably.
I wonder the level of certainty of your info on the S300 being the top layer of Iran's Air Defense during the recent attack...
I am also curious about how many Israeli planes were involved, whether they did stand-off attacks and whether they came from Azerbaijan. If they did, it could be a reason they were not refueled by the US (but it suggests Iran's dissatisfaction with their neighbor just got more robust).
Would you agree that Israel's demonstration of capability, if it is over, appears roughly proportionate to Iran's.
I am unsure of the Israeli cost during and after the attack. I don't know where the number $1.3 billion comes from. Most of the money appropriated goes to US defense companies. 55% of Iron Dome is made in the US, or more. You would need to see the breakout for the appropriation's request.
It was a Schket missile (a flying pig...more lethal than Ukrainian babushka with a pickle jar). Believing Israeli media/propaganda is worse than trusting karine jean-pierre! to give a straight answer...much less tell the truth...Israel has a track record of being the consummate liar.
Next step: Israel gets bolder and starts hitting more Iranian targets. Russia delivers S400s to Syria, which would down those pesky planes, igniting Israel to retaliate even more. Lest they loose (even more) face. Finally the Arab nations get fed up with the little warmonger and decide to economically blockade them (at first). US provides relief efforts. Inevitably one of their planes/ships would get hit. Igniting a larger response. Then everything escalates and the world just goes down in flames.
Let's hope I'm wrong.
More likely, Sunni Arab states see Iran as a mortal threat and extend their military cooperation with Israel, Russian military hardware like S-400 adds a laugh track to match its recent combat record and everyone in the Middle East looks at the economic consequences of being Iran's ally (see Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and their standard of living).
Meanwhile the only $550 billion high-tech economy in the Middle East adds new customers for defense, machine learning and microchip industries.
https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-mobileye-receives-46m-orders-for-new-eyeq6-chip-1001477012
Nothing like the pleasure of Russian trolls throwing fits of Pravda propaganda to cover up the mess they're in!
"Let's hope I'm wrong" No worries, I suspect you usually are.
What's wrong with the S-400?
Turkey has questioned its effectiveness, despite buying it.
Russian-operated S-400 systems in Syria have not intercepted any Israeli aircraft conducting missions there, although this may be due to deconfliction agreements between Israel and Russia.
Some S-400 systems destroyed in Ukraine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-400_missile_system#2015_%E2%80%93_Syria
Radar forced to use inferior Russian microelectronics (28nm process?) vs Western microchips (2nm process).
Maybe the reason is not the S-400, but the Turks? They don't know how to use the system. And you can destroy any equipment. A patriot, for example.
"Maybe the reason is not the S-400, but the Turks? They don't know how to use the system"
Turkey bought the system, along with training from Russia and there's far less alcoholism in the Turkish military and society than in Russia, so I would think the Turkish S-400 systems would be the best in the world.
Why then can the Russians use them effectively, but the Turks can't?
Not even close.
The big news is that Israel’s ability to strike at will - without consequence for Israel -in the region is gone. This is a strategic reverse for Israel, along with its inability to defeat the Palestinian resistance in Gaza -despite Israel’s targeted mass murder of Palestinian women, children ,medics and journalists. On top of that Israel’s economy - as measured by GDP - has shrunk by about 20%, the Galilee is being abandoned by the settlers , and hundreds of thousands of jewish Israelis are quietly leaving Israel.
Israel is over, and so western ‘analysts’ discussion about the superiority of Israel’s boys toys - fighter jets, tanks, missiles - misses that.
The desperate scrabble by this article’s author to big-up a small quad copter attack, and some Israeli ‘fireworks ‘in Iraq is Israeli high dosage hasbara copium .
Israel is committing national suicide preceded by self immolation. Long may that continue .
"It may be that Israel, along with trying to ward off heavy internal pressure for an answer to Iran's massive blitz on Israel, was sending a message to the Iranians on just how vulnerable Iran was to Israel's Air Force."
As you recently noted, without the assistance of the United States and three or four other countries, Israel is just as vulnerable as Iran is to air attack. The US doesn't need to be dragged into a war and Biden doesn't need this now if he wants to get reelected. As it is, Gaza already is a millstone around his neck.
I read a few (somewhat reputable) sources claiming Iran has already acquired nuclear weapons. How likely is that?
Why would Israel play with fire like that?
No one can be sure. They have not tested any except perhaps simulations. It is a major issue for Israel and everyone else in the region.
The main problem of the region is Israel itself.
Iran still says specifically that they do not want nuclear weapons.
I believe that they recently said that they would reconsider this stance if Israel attacked their nuclear facilities. I also believe that they are close enough to "breakout" now that if the Islamic Republic announced that they in fact possessed nuclear weapons, everyone would have to assume that that was true.
Quite frankly, you would be naive not to have any after what NATO did to Gaddafi.
He surrendered all his WOMDs and then they killed him. North Korea learned from that and acquired nuclear weapons in no time. The only life insurance there is really.
"North Korea learned from that and acquired nuclear weapons in no time"
Glad for the North Koreans, they can now enjoy a wonderful life free of any Western distractions, luxuries or freedoms.
Don't know, don't care, primitive culture that was still illiterate 2,000 years after Aristotle founded his Academy of Philosophy in Athens.
South Korea citizens have much better freedom, consumer goods and standard of living than North Koreans, who are now stuck in the regime protected by that nuclear umbrella.
Have you ever considered enjoying a better life by moving to North Korea or Cuba? Why not follow through on your convictions?
I find it curious that whereas the author was quick to proclaim Iran's missile attack as a "failure", no such assessment is made here; both attacks had little tactical impact. However unlike the Israeli attack, Iran's attack represents a significant strategic victory which changes the military calculus in the region.
The man speaking is Chas Freeman, former Assistant Secretary of Defense and, very relevant to the topic, former US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia. He's interviewed by @PLottaz, an Associate Professor at Kyoto University in Japan (this is the full video of the interview: https://youtube.com/watch?v=jLai2YG4NRc). (Arnaud Bertand's "X" thread)
What Freeman argues is that Iran's strike "changes all the rules of the game in the Middle-East". The biggest deal for him is that "the Saudis, the Emiratis and others informed the United States that they would not permit American operations against Iran from their territory and Iran warned those states that if they did, they would become targets. So in a sense, Iran has achieved the neutralization of American forces in the Persian gulf that it long sought. So from a tactical military point of view it was a 'nothing burger' - nobody was killed, nobody was damaged - [...] but from a strategic point of view, from a soft power point of view, it was a huge success. Iran accomplished its objective and it left Israel with an intolerable dilemma. Israel cannot continue to behave as though it can act with impunity.
What is your opinion on the rumors that the strike was carried out by quadcopters which took off from Azerbaidjan (an ally of Israel)?
I haven't heard any such rumors.
"It may be that Israel, along with trying to ward off heavy internal pressure for an answer to Iran's massive blitz on Israel, was sending a message to the Iranians on just how vulnerable Iran was to Israel's Air Force. In addition, Israel may have been testing if Iran's continued and public threats to hit Israel again were real threats or just bluster."
Good summary.
But you could almost turn it round to describe the Iranian attack on Israel last weekend.
In some ways the standoff is more symmetric than many think.
In many ways this sounds like a Chinese ballon full of hat air floating over America and signifying nothing.
Kinetic pretense, Round II.
My guess is this will be put to bed, for the time being at least.
In any other administration, I'd have dismissed that theory, but I could see that actually occurring.
Thanks for the details of a situation where the descriptions and explanations have varied considerably.
I wonder the level of certainty of your info on the S300 being the top layer of Iran's Air Defense during the recent attack...
I am also curious about how many Israeli planes were involved, whether they did stand-off attacks and whether they came from Azerbaijan. If they did, it could be a reason they were not refueled by the US (but it suggests Iran's dissatisfaction with their neighbor just got more robust).
Would you agree that Israel's demonstration of capability, if it is over, appears roughly proportionate to Iran's.
I am going on news reports on the situation. All the information is subject to adjustment.
News report from Israel today reports US House appropriating $4Billion US$ to "replenish" Iron Dome and David's Sling due to the Iranian attack. That's 3 times the earlier reported $1.3B Israeli cost of defending against the attack. https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-04-19/ty-article-live/reports-say-israel-attacked-site-in-iran-explosions-heard-in-isfahan/0000018e-f484-daad-a3de-febf4f4e0000
I am unsure of the Israeli cost during and after the attack. I don't know where the number $1.3 billion comes from. Most of the money appropriated goes to US defense companies. 55% of Iron Dome is made in the US, or more. You would need to see the breakout for the appropriation's request.
Supposedly an IDF general gave that $1.3 billion USD figure, but I have not been able to find out which one, so take that as you will.
i24 News reports the target as Shahid Salami air base:
https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/defense/artc-simultaneous-israeli-strikes-on-iran-iraq-and-syria-reports
ABC says an air defense radar at that base, less than 10km from the Natanz uranium enrichment site, was destroyed with 3 missiles.
Any idea what weapon or drone was used, perhaps the Rampage air-launched ballistic missile?
https://theaviationist.com/2019/04/24/lets-talk-about-the-israeli-rampage-stand-off-weapon-reportedly-used-in-combat-in-syria-for-the-first-time/
There is also a new Israeli air launched ballistic missile of undisclosed range available:
https://www.twz.com/26582/israeli-firm-turns-ballistic-missile-surrogate-into-air-launched-bunker-busting-missile
https://www.twz.com/air/mystery-weapon-appears-in-iraqi-field-after-israeli-strike
It was a Schket missile (a flying pig...more lethal than Ukrainian babushka with a pickle jar). Believing Israeli media/propaganda is worse than trusting karine jean-pierre! to give a straight answer...much less tell the truth...Israel has a track record of being the consummate liar.