Next step: Israel gets bolder and starts hitting more Iranian targets. Russia delivers S400s to Syria, which would down those pesky planes, igniting Israel to retaliate even more. Lest they loose (even more) face. Finally the Arab nations get fed up with the little warmonger and decide to economically blockade them (at first). US provides relief efforts. Inevitably one of their planes/ships would get hit. Igniting a larger response. Then everything escalates and the world just goes down in flames.
The big news is that Israel’s ability to strike at will - without consequence for Israel -in the region is gone. This is a strategic reverse for Israel, along with its inability to defeat the Palestinian resistance in Gaza -despite Israel’s targeted mass murder of Palestinian women, children ,medics and journalists. On top of that Israel’s economy - as measured by GDP - has shrunk by about 20%, the Galilee is being abandoned by the settlers , and hundreds of thousands of jewish Israelis are quietly leaving Israel.
Israel is over, and so western ‘analysts’ discussion about the superiority of Israel’s boys toys - fighter jets, tanks, missiles - misses that.
The desperate scrabble by this article’s author to big-up a small quad copter attack, and some Israeli ‘fireworks ‘in Iraq is Israeli high dosage hasbara copium .
Israel is committing national suicide preceded by self immolation. Long may that continue .
"It may be that Israel, along with trying to ward off heavy internal pressure for an answer to Iran's massive blitz on Israel, was sending a message to the Iranians on just how vulnerable Iran was to Israel's Air Force."
As you recently noted, without the assistance of the United States and three or four other countries, Israel is just as vulnerable as Iran is to air attack. The US doesn't need to be dragged into a war and Biden doesn't need this now if he wants to get reelected. As it is, Gaza already is a millstone around his neck.
I find it curious that whereas the author was quick to proclaim Iran's missile attack as a "failure", no such assessment is made here; both attacks had little tactical impact. However unlike the Israeli attack, Iran's attack represents a significant strategic victory which changes the military calculus in the region.
The man speaking is Chas Freeman, former Assistant Secretary of Defense and, very relevant to the topic, former US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia. He's interviewed by @PLottaz, an Associate Professor at Kyoto University in Japan (this is the full video of the interview: https://youtube.com/watch?v=jLai2YG4NRc). (Arnaud Bertand's "X" thread)
What Freeman argues is that Iran's strike "changes all the rules of the game in the Middle-East". The biggest deal for him is that "the Saudis, the Emiratis and others informed the United States that they would not permit American operations against Iran from their territory and Iran warned those states that if they did, they would become targets. So in a sense, Iran has achieved the neutralization of American forces in the Persian gulf that it long sought. So from a tactical military point of view it was a 'nothing burger' - nobody was killed, nobody was damaged - [...] but from a strategic point of view, from a soft power point of view, it was a huge success. Iran accomplished its objective and it left Israel with an intolerable dilemma. Israel cannot continue to behave as though it can act with impunity.
"It may be that Israel, along with trying to ward off heavy internal pressure for an answer to Iran's massive blitz on Israel, was sending a message to the Iranians on just how vulnerable Iran was to Israel's Air Force. In addition, Israel may have been testing if Iran's continued and public threats to hit Israel again were real threats or just bluster."
Good summary.
But you could almost turn it round to describe the Iranian attack on Israel last weekend.
In some ways the standoff is more symmetric than many think.
Thanks for the details of a situation where the descriptions and explanations have varied considerably.
I wonder the level of certainty of your info on the S300 being the top layer of Iran's Air Defense during the recent attack...
I am also curious about how many Israeli planes were involved, whether they did stand-off attacks and whether they came from Azerbaijan. If they did, it could be a reason they were not refueled by the US (but it suggests Iran's dissatisfaction with their neighbor just got more robust).
Would you agree that Israel's demonstration of capability, if it is over, appears roughly proportionate to Iran's.
Next step: Israel gets bolder and starts hitting more Iranian targets. Russia delivers S400s to Syria, which would down those pesky planes, igniting Israel to retaliate even more. Lest they loose (even more) face. Finally the Arab nations get fed up with the little warmonger and decide to economically blockade them (at first). US provides relief efforts. Inevitably one of their planes/ships would get hit. Igniting a larger response. Then everything escalates and the world just goes down in flames.
Let's hope I'm wrong.
The big news is that Israel’s ability to strike at will - without consequence for Israel -in the region is gone. This is a strategic reverse for Israel, along with its inability to defeat the Palestinian resistance in Gaza -despite Israel’s targeted mass murder of Palestinian women, children ,medics and journalists. On top of that Israel’s economy - as measured by GDP - has shrunk by about 20%, the Galilee is being abandoned by the settlers , and hundreds of thousands of jewish Israelis are quietly leaving Israel.
Israel is over, and so western ‘analysts’ discussion about the superiority of Israel’s boys toys - fighter jets, tanks, missiles - misses that.
The desperate scrabble by this article’s author to big-up a small quad copter attack, and some Israeli ‘fireworks ‘in Iraq is Israeli high dosage hasbara copium .
Israel is committing national suicide preceded by self immolation. Long may that continue .
"It may be that Israel, along with trying to ward off heavy internal pressure for an answer to Iran's massive blitz on Israel, was sending a message to the Iranians on just how vulnerable Iran was to Israel's Air Force."
As you recently noted, without the assistance of the United States and three or four other countries, Israel is just as vulnerable as Iran is to air attack. The US doesn't need to be dragged into a war and Biden doesn't need this now if he wants to get reelected. As it is, Gaza already is a millstone around his neck.
I read a few (somewhat reputable) sources claiming Iran has already acquired nuclear weapons. How likely is that?
Why would Israel play with fire like that?
I find it curious that whereas the author was quick to proclaim Iran's missile attack as a "failure", no such assessment is made here; both attacks had little tactical impact. However unlike the Israeli attack, Iran's attack represents a significant strategic victory which changes the military calculus in the region.
The man speaking is Chas Freeman, former Assistant Secretary of Defense and, very relevant to the topic, former US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia. He's interviewed by @PLottaz, an Associate Professor at Kyoto University in Japan (this is the full video of the interview: https://youtube.com/watch?v=jLai2YG4NRc). (Arnaud Bertand's "X" thread)
What Freeman argues is that Iran's strike "changes all the rules of the game in the Middle-East". The biggest deal for him is that "the Saudis, the Emiratis and others informed the United States that they would not permit American operations against Iran from their territory and Iran warned those states that if they did, they would become targets. So in a sense, Iran has achieved the neutralization of American forces in the Persian gulf that it long sought. So from a tactical military point of view it was a 'nothing burger' - nobody was killed, nobody was damaged - [...] but from a strategic point of view, from a soft power point of view, it was a huge success. Iran accomplished its objective and it left Israel with an intolerable dilemma. Israel cannot continue to behave as though it can act with impunity.
What is your opinion on the rumors that the strike was carried out by quadcopters which took off from Azerbaidjan (an ally of Israel)?
"It may be that Israel, along with trying to ward off heavy internal pressure for an answer to Iran's massive blitz on Israel, was sending a message to the Iranians on just how vulnerable Iran was to Israel's Air Force. In addition, Israel may have been testing if Iran's continued and public threats to hit Israel again were real threats or just bluster."
Good summary.
But you could almost turn it round to describe the Iranian attack on Israel last weekend.
In some ways the standoff is more symmetric than many think.
In many ways this sounds like a Chinese ballon full of hat air floating over America and signifying nothing.
Kinetic pretense, Round II.
My guess is this will be put to bed, for the time being at least.
In any other administration, I'd have dismissed that theory, but I could see that actually occurring.
Thanks for the details of a situation where the descriptions and explanations have varied considerably.
I wonder the level of certainty of your info on the S300 being the top layer of Iran's Air Defense during the recent attack...
I am also curious about how many Israeli planes were involved, whether they did stand-off attacks and whether they came from Azerbaijan. If they did, it could be a reason they were not refueled by the US (but it suggests Iran's dissatisfaction with their neighbor just got more robust).
Would you agree that Israel's demonstration of capability, if it is over, appears roughly proportionate to Iran's.
i24 News reports the target as Shahid Salami air base:
https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/defense/artc-simultaneous-israeli-strikes-on-iran-iraq-and-syria-reports
ABC says an air defense radar at that base, less than 10km from the Natanz uranium enrichment site, was destroyed with 3 missiles.
Any idea what weapon or drone was used, perhaps the Rampage air-launched ballistic missile?
https://theaviationist.com/2019/04/24/lets-talk-about-the-israeli-rampage-stand-off-weapon-reportedly-used-in-combat-in-syria-for-the-first-time/
There is also a new Israeli air launched ballistic missile of undisclosed range available:
https://www.twz.com/26582/israeli-firm-turns-ballistic-missile-surrogate-into-air-launched-bunker-busting-missile
https://www.twz.com/air/mystery-weapon-appears-in-iraqi-field-after-israeli-strike