Replacing Putin: Scenarios

Russia's Leader is in trouble

On 20 July 1944, Claus von Stauffenberg and other conspirators attempted to assassinate Adolf Hitler, Führer of Nazi Germany, inside his Wolf's Lair field headquarters near Rastenburg, in East Prussia. The bomb, carried in a briefcase, was placed under the conference room table.  It exploded, but Hitler survived.  This led, in turn, to the arrest of more than 7,000 alleged conspirators, most of them senior army personnel.  Nearly 5,000 were executed.

Known as Operation Valkyrie, it was not the only plot against Hitler.  In fact some plots go back to the late 1930s and a number of failed attempts took place in 1942 (Operation Spark).

The reason Operation Valkyrie is interesting today relates to the situation of the Russian army in Ukraine and Vladimir Putin's survival.

In 1944 the handwriting was on the wall for Nazi Germany, but Hitler wanted to and did press on to the bitter end.

Today, the handwriting is on the wall for Russia's army.  It has taken huge casualties in the Ukraine war.  The Russian army has lost almost half of its tank force in the conflict.  Much of its equipment has underperformed or been vulnerable to advanced weapons supplied by the United States and other NATO countries.  Russia has been unable to achieve air superiority, is low on smart weapons and cruise missiles, and is using Iranian and North Korean supplied systems (drones, cruise missiles, artillery shells) because it has nearly depleted what it had in stock. 

Putin's efforts to turn the war situation around focused on forced conscription to replace dead and wounded soldiers (which led to thousands of young men leaving the country), new commanders (which so far have not been successful), and attempts to speed up the output of new weapons (with little so far to show for the effort).

It must have been galling for Putin to have to agree with his new field commander that it was a strategic necessity to pull Russian forces out of Kherson, a strategic city that was planned as a jumping off point for Russia to take Odesa. Russia no longer has the ground forces to move against Odesa.  Its attempt to regain the offensive elsewhere also is in failure mode.

The proof, if any is needed, is around the town of Bakhmut, which the Russians have been trying to surround and take for some time, without success.

It is likewise bizarre that Putin has turned to Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner "private" army, allowing them to recruit Wagner soldiers from Russian prisons in exchange for reduced jail terms (now including Russian women prisoners that Prigozhin wants as sharpshooters).  

Putin has also permitted Chechen military leader Ramzan Kadyrov to play an increasingly outsized role in Ukraine.  Both Prigozhin and Kadyrov are dangerous players, not because they can turn the tide in Ukraine, which neither can do, but as a threat to the traditional Russian army leadership and, in particular, to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.  Shoigu, it should be noted, is a politician wearing an army uniform, not a proven military man.

Looming over the regular Russian army and the Chechen and Wagner soldiers is their wartime behavior.  There are well documented cases of abuse, executions of soldiers and civilians, torture and rapes and thefts of property. Russian forces also are bombing Ukraine's civilian infrastructure, including apartment buildings and administrative centers, causing numerous civilian casualties and depriving the non-combatant population of electricity, water and food.

These crimes have been characterized in Europe and the United States as acts of terrorism.  Beyond the criminal aspect, the behavior of Russia's troops is indicative of a poorly led military that lacks discipline and is not trained properly. 

It has been reported in the underground press that there have been a number of attempts to kill Putin including trying to blow up Putin in his presidential limousine.  US intelligence agencies have reported other attempts on Putin's life.

There are plenty of people in Russia who want to get rid of Putin before he gets rid of them.  There is a long list of oligarchs, reporters, businessmen, bankers and politicians who have been liquidated in the past five years.  Some have fallen out of windows and bathtubs, others have died of mysterious disease, some from gunshots, some from poison including chemical weapons (such as Novichuk) and radiation (polonium). 

While this power struggle in Russia could result in Putin's assassination, so far he seems to be winning against his political adversaries. Getting to Putin is a big challenge and even Russian mafia operators would find the security environment daunting.

A more serious challenge for Putin is his army.  The last time the Russian army was humiliated, in Afghanistan, it led to a coup attempt against Gorbachev that failed, and a subsequent loss of nerve in the army and security establishment that paved the way for Yeltsin to become Russia's President. Yeltsin preserved the Russian security apparatus, in turn paving the way for Putin to replace him.

Today the Russian army knows that, despite all the talk in Russia about the NATO threat, the Russian army is a shell of its former self.  It has not modernized either because there wasn't money to do so, or the country lacked the industrial infrastructure to support real modernization.  Consequently Russia focused on improving its nuclear arsenal, a far cheaper alternative than building thousands of tanks, missiles, ships and aircraft.  That’s why most of the weapons used by Russia in the Ukraine war date back to the Soviet period.

The Russian army has taken it on the chin in Ukraine, and if the war continues it is likely to rack up more losses.  One would expect a high level of discontent and lack of trust by Russian army commanders in Moscow's leadership.  Would that translate into an attempt to remove Putin from office?  

Unless Putin can pull a rabbit out of a hat, launch a second invasion of Ukraine (that might also fail), the situation will continue to deteriorate.

No one knows how much danger Putin faces, nor if there is a challenge from the Russian army, what kind of leader would emerge.  

Here are two possible outcomes:

Outcome #1

Russia puts a military man in power.  The new leader tries to make a deal with Ukraine in exchange for pulling Russian troops out of the country.  The Russian army is reduced in size and the new leader tries to restore relations with Europe and the United States.

Outcome #2

Russia puts a military man in power.  He decides to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.  He also threatens NATO countries with similar attacks.  The war spills over into Europe. All bets are off.