You raise a number of important issues. There obviously is a huge economic disparity, made worse by the fact that most of Russia has not truly modernized. That puts them in an unenviable position vis a vis the west.
In addition, perhaps more importantly, it creates a dangerous posture. Years ago Gorbachev told Francois Mitterrand that Russia was a third world country with nuclear weapons. It still is.
This leads to the question of Putin's survival. Of course a one off attack by a security guard or someone like that could kill Putin. But that leaves Russia without a leader and in a mess.
The alternative scenario, whether Putin is assassinated or resigns, is that alternative leaders replace him. They are likely to come from the security establishment or the military, it seems to me.
Naturally we are speculating. But the situation in Russia is very nervous and high tension.
I think there's a third option, so you failed to mentioned that GDP has only contracted 3%, its main exports will continue and money will continue. If I were Putin and obviously I am not. There would be a full scale propaganda campaign about what the west really wants, a conversion into a war time economy. Signaling to Europe the US will make us bleed, we will make you bleed for a decade or more, and in the meantime destroying western Ukraine and keeping it a dependent and rump state. The 4th option which would be better for everyone rather than a long and protracted war. is outlined in this essay. But no one is going to do that are they. Despite the author being 100 per cent correct.
I would be interested in your assessment of the economic power balance between Russia and the West. This seems to matter in the war of attrition which is unfolding. Who can stay in the game the longest?
I wrote an article today which claims that the GDP of the Western allies of Ukraine is roughly 28 times larger than the GDP of Russia. Does that sound about right to you? If yes, what are the implications on the ground? How soon might such an economic imbalance become decisive?
As to Putin's health, how reasonable is this?
Putin must be protected by many people with guns, like any national leader. I would think that when Putin appears in public these people with guns must be nearby to deter any attack on Putin. Couldn't a single gun toting security officer willing to die for his country take Putin out? Might there be such a person in Putin's security detail who might act in response to threats against his family, for example?
Dear Phil,
You raise a number of important issues. There obviously is a huge economic disparity, made worse by the fact that most of Russia has not truly modernized. That puts them in an unenviable position vis a vis the west.
In addition, perhaps more importantly, it creates a dangerous posture. Years ago Gorbachev told Francois Mitterrand that Russia was a third world country with nuclear weapons. It still is.
This leads to the question of Putin's survival. Of course a one off attack by a security guard or someone like that could kill Putin. But that leaves Russia without a leader and in a mess.
The alternative scenario, whether Putin is assassinated or resigns, is that alternative leaders replace him. They are likely to come from the security establishment or the military, it seems to me.
Naturally we are speculating. But the situation in Russia is very nervous and high tension.
Again, thanks fir your incisive comments.
--Steve Bryen
I think there's a third option, so you failed to mentioned that GDP has only contracted 3%, its main exports will continue and money will continue. If I were Putin and obviously I am not. There would be a full scale propaganda campaign about what the west really wants, a conversion into a war time economy. Signaling to Europe the US will make us bleed, we will make you bleed for a decade or more, and in the meantime destroying western Ukraine and keeping it a dependent and rump state. The 4th option which would be better for everyone rather than a long and protracted war. is outlined in this essay. But no one is going to do that are they. Despite the author being 100 per cent correct.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/no-one-would-win-long-war-ukraine
I would be interested in your assessment of the economic power balance between Russia and the West. This seems to matter in the war of attrition which is unfolding. Who can stay in the game the longest?
I wrote an article today which claims that the GDP of the Western allies of Ukraine is roughly 28 times larger than the GDP of Russia. Does that sound about right to you? If yes, what are the implications on the ground? How soon might such an economic imbalance become decisive?
As to Putin's health, how reasonable is this?
Putin must be protected by many people with guns, like any national leader. I would think that when Putin appears in public these people with guns must be nearby to deter any attack on Putin. Couldn't a single gun toting security officer willing to die for his country take Putin out? Might there be such a person in Putin's security detail who might act in response to threats against his family, for example?
Your thoughts?