Biden is being blackmailed by Ukraine over Burisma and more. He is trapped and can't get out. There is a real possibility the Russians will have a major breakout due to inadequate manpower and declining resources. The Weremacht collapse on the oder neisse line could be an example of what panic and collapse can bring. Green troops are well know for panicking and running
At various points on the Eastern front the AFU appears to be falling back to more defensible lines and strengthening them.
I guess the Krynky bridgehead, which marks their only advance since the summer, is either an expensive PR exercise for Western backers or an attempt to divert some of the better Russian units from further East on the southern front, or a bit of both?
Any negotiations will be strictly one-sided. The "West," has shown to be unable to uphold any agreement, re: Minsk 1 & 2, March 2022 settlement, and grain deal. Any bending of Russia's terms regarding the SMO will be by their own will.
Strangely, I am on the Russians side. The political Gnosticism of the liberal imperium is so very pernicious. Ukrainians truly have been led down the Primrose path.
Ukraine: Hold = hang on to whatever you have using whatever resources you have.
:Hold and build = hang on to whatever you have using whatever resouces you have while simutaneously trying to build more forces from unknown sources, training them with currently unavailable resources since all the current available ones are tied up with the hold part of the strategy.
: accept endless withering artillery and air assaults while holding.
Russia: Trade land for time and position while slowly falling back. (This works especially well if the land you are trading is recently acquired enemy territory?
:form defensive lines in defensible positions while slowly falling back.
: protect defensive lines when troops safely in place with decimating airand artillery on any attacker assaults
: continue until the attackers run out of manpower and equipment
: choose from availabe options when attackers run out of resources and support.
Wars start when one side overestimates its offensive capability. Wars end when one side realizes its actual defensive capacity.
Republicans are spineless. Wouldn't last long in the trenches against China or Russia or whoever, if they're already bending over backward for Putin like this.
Stephen I'm trying to find a source that says Lt Gen Aguto is going to be a "shadow commander" and have any operational control over the Ukrainian military. This just looks like a routine trip. You say this, but your source you link to there doesn't say anything like that - the US has clearly been advising Ukraine from the beginning but that's very different from saying this guy now outranks Syrski.
I did not know the actual number. The Europeans have been hit harder, especially Germany in terms of economic impact. As I wrote earlier, there are no good prospects for investments to come back from western sources. The reasons include Russian hostility to that and also Russian laws which make investing in Russia problematic (even without sanctions).
Thanks. I have two questions for you if you have the time to answer:
1) Did Putin take a gamble that the US/NATO backing of Ukraine would eventually peter out/fail or was he playing chess whilst Ukraine and their allies were playing checkers?
2) What happens if the US General and/or his staff get wounded or killed?
Seems like Biden is playing a very, very dangerous game.
if something happens to a US general as a result of combat or of a Russian bombing operation then the immediate question is whether he was purposefully targeted or just collateral... a hard question since he is probably going to operate out of Ukrainian command centers or HQ... The Biden people will immediately accuse Russia and who knows where it will lead
Regarding Putin and the SMO, he tried to leverage the US and NATO saying he would send in his troops if negotiations failed to take place. His warnings seem to have been ignored. I recall that the Russian army deployed in Belarus at the time never thought they would go to war.
The American general and his staff are of course just a 'liaison team' which will I guess remain far behind the line of contact - unlike some US, UK, Polish and other allied special forces personnel.
And Russia hasn't claimed to have taken any of these dead or alive, so I guess NATO is being quite careful.
I am far from sure they are a liaison team. They are put there to take control of Ukraine's military operations. How they do that is not stated. Otherwise it would be pointless to send them to Ukraine. Sitting in Rhineland-Pfalz is safer than sitting in Kiev if it is a liaison operation. (The Special Forces types there are a big risk as well.) I think the messaging is clear: do it our way or do it on your own.
I can't get my head around America sending in a new chief of staff to replace the most popular guy in Ukraine and to organize a freeze - rather than sending more weapons as planned - after the current chief Zaluzhny already got into trouble with his nominal boss Zelensky precisely for saying the conflict was effectively frozen (as well as for being twice as popular in Ukraine).
OK, the only credible way forward, even without Washington gridlock, is to agree a freeze with Putin, but the main obstacle to that is surely maximalist Zelensky rather than more pragmatic Zaluzhny?
NATO aka America has been pretty careful not to escalate suddenly so far, and sending in a sort of 'liquidator' could I guess even be seen as a move toward de-escalation or deconfliction rather than direct US-Russia conflict...
But still, I'm baffled by your job description for Aguto.
I don't even see that much. This looks pretty standard for what the SAG has been doing from the beginning, or at least when it was clear Russia failed to take Kyiv.
He'll get to the left bank of the Oskil at Kupiansk, but can't cross, there or further south where the wide river and elevated right bank form a natural barrier.
He'd probably like to take the left bank down to the Seversky Donets, and then a line down through Kramatorsk to Vuhledar, but that seems thoroughly unrealistic.
In the South the natural line of control is formed by the Dnieper, then roughly the current heavily fortified front from Vasylivka to around Vuhledar.
And there are ethnic dividing lines along with topographic and logistic ones.
I can't see Russia moving beyond a few pockets of resistance in the East, after which Putin will have plenty of reasons to just dig in deeper and wait for a more formal freeze some - maybe long - way down the line.
That would be a big win, and he could shift focus to the rest of his domestic economy.
Does that general understand the concept of being a sacrificial lamb? His career is about to end.
Biden is being blackmailed by Ukraine over Burisma and more. He is trapped and can't get out. There is a real possibility the Russians will have a major breakout due to inadequate manpower and declining resources. The Weremacht collapse on the oder neisse line could be an example of what panic and collapse can bring. Green troops are well know for panicking and running
Looking good in your tuxedo buddy
At various points on the Eastern front the AFU appears to be falling back to more defensible lines and strengthening them.
I guess the Krynky bridgehead, which marks their only advance since the summer, is either an expensive PR exercise for Western backers or an attempt to divert some of the better Russian units from further East on the southern front, or a bit of both?
Hard to judge but I think it was intended to draw off Russian units defending Verbove. It didn't work.
Any negotiations will be strictly one-sided. The "West," has shown to be unable to uphold any agreement, re: Minsk 1 & 2, March 2022 settlement, and grain deal. Any bending of Russia's terms regarding the SMO will be by their own will.
An empire of lies
Strangely, I am on the Russians side. The political Gnosticism of the liberal imperium is so very pernicious. Ukrainians truly have been led down the Primrose path.
Ukraine: Hold = hang on to whatever you have using whatever resources you have.
:Hold and build = hang on to whatever you have using whatever resouces you have while simutaneously trying to build more forces from unknown sources, training them with currently unavailable resources since all the current available ones are tied up with the hold part of the strategy.
: accept endless withering artillery and air assaults while holding.
Russia: Trade land for time and position while slowly falling back. (This works especially well if the land you are trading is recently acquired enemy territory?
:form defensive lines in defensible positions while slowly falling back.
: protect defensive lines when troops safely in place with decimating airand artillery on any attacker assaults
: continue until the attackers run out of manpower and equipment
: choose from availabe options when attackers run out of resources and support.
Wars start when one side overestimates its offensive capability. Wars end when one side realizes its actual defensive capacity.
The mission is in fact HODL
There was another "Hold" strategy deployed against the Russians from '43 to '45. It didn't work out too well.
Republicans are spineless. Wouldn't last long in the trenches against China or Russia or whoever, if they're already bending over backward for Putin like this.
Weak.
Stephen I'm trying to find a source that says Lt Gen Aguto is going to be a "shadow commander" and have any operational control over the Ukrainian military. This just looks like a routine trip. You say this, but your source you link to there doesn't say anything like that - the US has clearly been advising Ukraine from the beginning but that's very different from saying this guy now outranks Syrski.
Where did you get that idea from?
Dear Mr. Stephen Bryen.
Did you know, that western industry have lost 400 billion usd. in lost investment in Russia due to sanctions. Numbers are from CBR.ru
I did not know the actual number. The Europeans have been hit harder, especially Germany in terms of economic impact. As I wrote earlier, there are no good prospects for investments to come back from western sources. The reasons include Russian hostility to that and also Russian laws which make investing in Russia problematic (even without sanctions).
Thanks. I have two questions for you if you have the time to answer:
1) Did Putin take a gamble that the US/NATO backing of Ukraine would eventually peter out/fail or was he playing chess whilst Ukraine and their allies were playing checkers?
2) What happens if the US General and/or his staff get wounded or killed?
Seems like Biden is playing a very, very dangerous game.
In reverse order:
if something happens to a US general as a result of combat or of a Russian bombing operation then the immediate question is whether he was purposefully targeted or just collateral... a hard question since he is probably going to operate out of Ukrainian command centers or HQ... The Biden people will immediately accuse Russia and who knows where it will lead
Regarding Putin and the SMO, he tried to leverage the US and NATO saying he would send in his troops if negotiations failed to take place. His warnings seem to have been ignored. I recall that the Russian army deployed in Belarus at the time never thought they would go to war.
The American general and his staff are of course just a 'liaison team' which will I guess remain far behind the line of contact - unlike some US, UK, Polish and other allied special forces personnel.
And Russia hasn't claimed to have taken any of these dead or alive, so I guess NATO is being quite careful.
I am far from sure they are a liaison team. They are put there to take control of Ukraine's military operations. How they do that is not stated. Otherwise it would be pointless to send them to Ukraine. Sitting in Rhineland-Pfalz is safer than sitting in Kiev if it is a liaison operation. (The Special Forces types there are a big risk as well.) I think the messaging is clear: do it our way or do it on your own.
I can't get my head around America sending in a new chief of staff to replace the most popular guy in Ukraine and to organize a freeze - rather than sending more weapons as planned - after the current chief Zaluzhny already got into trouble with his nominal boss Zelensky precisely for saying the conflict was effectively frozen (as well as for being twice as popular in Ukraine).
OK, the only credible way forward, even without Washington gridlock, is to agree a freeze with Putin, but the main obstacle to that is surely maximalist Zelensky rather than more pragmatic Zaluzhny?
NATO aka America has been pretty careful not to escalate suddenly so far, and sending in a sort of 'liquidator' could I guess even be seen as a move toward de-escalation or deconfliction rather than direct US-Russia conflict...
But still, I'm baffled by your job description for Aguto.
Aguto isn't going in as a chief of staff. I don't know where he got this idea from. No evidence for it, far as I can see.
His job *title* is still 'Commander, Security Assistance Group Ukraine', based in Wiesbaden, visiting Kyiv on a 'rotational basis'.
But it seems the assistance may be getting a bit more hands-on.
I don't even see that much. This looks pretty standard for what the SAG has been doing from the beginning, or at least when it was clear Russia failed to take Kyiv.
Astute judgement by duty first’ me thinks
I noted the pattern recently in another thread:
America loses, MIC wins.
Afghanistan was the best business model in the history of warfare, and in October Joe said Ukraine was good for US jobs, if nothing else.
wars have long been profit centers for some and death traps for others
And where do you think Vlad will go?
He'll get to the left bank of the Oskil at Kupiansk, but can't cross, there or further south where the wide river and elevated right bank form a natural barrier.
He'd probably like to take the left bank down to the Seversky Donets, and then a line down through Kramatorsk to Vuhledar, but that seems thoroughly unrealistic.
In the South the natural line of control is formed by the Dnieper, then roughly the current heavily fortified front from Vasylivka to around Vuhledar.
And there are ethnic dividing lines along with topographic and logistic ones.
I can't see Russia moving beyond a few pockets of resistance in the East, after which Putin will have plenty of reasons to just dig in deeper and wait for a more formal freeze some - maybe long - way down the line.
That would be a big win, and he could shift focus to the rest of his domestic economy.