Romania and Poland Both Have Big US Bases and Ambitions to Take Over Western Ukraine

Since the reign of Peter the Great, Moscow has always sought to have friendly countries in its vicinity.

[Editor’s Note: Peter G. Feher writes for Magyar Hírlap (Hungarian Gazette). His current assignment is Central Europe, the V4 group, the Balkans, Ukraine, and Turkey. This is his third guest column for Weapons and Strategy.]

Two huge new US bases, one in Poland and the other in Romania, could be a staging ground for the occupation of western Ukraine as a way to contain Russia.  Romania is now seeking to replace the head of NATO with its President.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán travelled to Bucharest at the invitation of Romanian President Klaus Iohannis. He participated in an EU "mini" meeting in the Romanian capital. Also present at the negotiations were Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo and Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic, as well as the head of the European Union's highest decision-making body, the President of the European Council, Charles Michel.

Viktor Orban (left) with Klaus Iohannis

Politicians consulted on the EU's future priorities. The meeting also discussed the nomination for the position of NATO Secretary General. As is known, Iohannis is pushing to get the post. Under pressure to defer to Mark Rutte, the Dutch Prime Minister who also wants to head NATO, Iohannis declared: “I have no intention of withdrawing from the Secretary General nomination,” even though several major NATO member countries have confirmed that they support Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte for the post. 

To obtain the post of NATO Secretary General, the consent of all member states is required. EU officials in Brussels believe that Hungary can be convinced to support the outgoing Dutch Prime Minister. 

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte

The Hungarians, however, don’t support Rutte. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó stated: “Of course, we do not support a person who wanted to bring Hungary to its knees.” 

Rutte attacked Hungary because Hungary does not allow illegal migrants into the country and because Hungary banned LGBTQ activists from schools. Moreover, Hungary does not supply weapons to Ukraine and now is urging a cease-fire. "In the history of NATO, Central and Eastern European member states have never been selected to provide a NATO secretary general. This is the time for this, as the main security challenge comes from this direction", said Peter Szijjártó at a press conference held at the NATO Council of Foreign Ministers in Brussels. He said, "Hungary always supports the strengthening of the eastern wing of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and hopefully this principle will be reflected in the person of the next Secretary General."  

This firm announcement came as a huge surprise. As is known, after the end of the First World War, the relationship between Hungary and Romania was not without problems. The reason for this is that after the First World War, France forced the dismemberment of historical Hungary. Hungary lost two-thirds of its territory and one-third of its population. France's goal was to prevent Germany from finding an ally again, so it divided most of the territory of the Kingdom of Hungary into small states. 

Romania acquired Transylvania, where almost two million Hungarians lived at the time. Hungarians were in the majority in all the big cities of Transylvania. Currently, about 1.2 million Hungarians live in Transylvania. Czechoslovakia, Austria and Yugoslavia received Hungarian territories. 

For Hungary, all of this causes trauma that continues to this day. Romania, on the other hand, is afraid that since it acquired Transylvania with the help of a major power, it may lose it without the support of a major power. This happened during the Second World War where Hungary regained Hungarian-dominated northern Transylvania. There were similar territorial changes in the case of the other states bordering Hungary. After the Second World War, the great powers restored the borders. 

It is typical of the anti-Hungarian nature of Romanian politics that in 1956, the communist leadership in Bucharest offered to assist Moscow in helping crush the Hungarian revolution and freedom struggle with tanks. At the dawn of the regime change in Eastern Europe, when the communists were still in power in the region, Romanian party leader Nicolae Ceaușescu threatened to strike the nuclear power plant operating in the Hungarian city of Paks. The reactors there account for 40 percent of Hungarian electricity production. A recent case is typical of Romanian society's anti-Hungarian attitude. In a youth gymnastics camp, young Romanians tied up, beat and humiliated one of their peers because he was Hungarian. 

Romania is one of Hungary's most important economic and trade partners. In addition, the Ukrainian war is taking place in the neighbourhood of Hungary and Romania, which poses a threat to both countries. So, as Peter Szijjártó also stated: NATO needs an East-Central European Secretary General who directly perceives the risk caused by war. Thus, despite their differences, Hungary and Romania likely will agree on Iohannis as the next Secretary General. 

In the immediate background is Washington and its big military bases in Poland and Romania.

Washington has pursued military bases in both countries before the Ukraine war. Under the Obama administration an agreement was reached on the construction of anti-missile systems located in Romania and Poland. 

Officially put in both countries to counter the threat allegedly posed by Iranian missiles, Moscow says the US-supplied air defenses are aimed at Russia. America is now building the largest NATO base in Europe in Romania, with the development of Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base near Constanta on the Black Sea coast. It is a huge investment of two and a half billion Euros. The base will house ten thousand, mainly American soldiers and their family members. 

The Mihail Kogalniceanu base has already played an important role in the war in Ukraine. It is said to have been the source of contemporaneous intelligence for the Ukrainian drones that destroyed the Moscow Moskva warship, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet.  

This is not the only venture aimed at bringing the United States and NATO closer to Russia. A similar facility in Redzikowa, Poland, about to be completed, it will also be able to accommodate ten thousand soldiers. Work on this base began in 2022. 

It is probably no coincidence that this base is also on the coast, in the Baltic region of northern Poland. It serves the same purpose as its Romanian counterpart. The Polish base and the Romanian one support NATO operations in Ukraine. The Poles and Romanians with the backing of the United States see these bases as an effective way to squeeze the Russians. 

According to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko, the conflict could spread in two directions. The first is Transnistria, where Russian maintain a 1,500-man garrison. Ukraine has launched a drone strike hitting a radar station belonging to Transdniestria, near the border with Ukraine. 

The leading Russian diplomat did not mention that another reason for the expansion of the conflict could be that Romania wants to unite with the Romanian-speaking Moldova. This is strongly opposed by the Kremlin.  Around 600,000 Moldavians have Romanian citizenship, perhaps more and the Moldovan language is identical to Romanian. Even the head of state, Maria Sandu, has a Romanian passport. 

The Kremlin's displeasure was expressed in 2016 when Russian President Vladimir Putin gave Igor Dodon, a pro-Russian Moldovan politician, a gift of an ornate map. The map depicted the historical borders of Moldova, which separated a large region from the territory of present-day Romania. Moscow's subtle hint at how it envisions the future of the region.  

However, Bucharest thinks differently about the coming years. Romania is preparing laws that will allow the armed forces to cross the country's borders to protect Romanian citizens there.  

Between the two world wars, Moldova belonged to Romania, but Stalin demanded it back and got it. The Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu recently said: “I still believe in the unification of Moldova with Romania. Either it will happen within the EU, or we will find another solution. It is clear! Romanians live in the Republic of Moldova. History has done an injustice. And the present is a consequence of the past.”

Romania also wants to break off a piece of Ukraine, claiming that 300,000 people in the Chernivtsi region and the southern part of Odessa have Romanian citizenship. 

Returning to Alexander Grushko's explanation, according to him, the other direction of the expansion of the conflict is Poland. Warsaw also has territorial claims against Ukraine. Poland wants to restore the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. The probability that the conflict zone will expand is quite high, argued the Russian deputy foreign minister. 

The Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth was divided between Russia, Prussia and the Habsburg Empire in 1772. Poland disappeared from the map of Europe. After the First World War, Polish statehood was restored within the original borders. 

After the Second World War, however, Stalin took back the Polish territories Russia had held in 1772. Poland was compensated from territory in the eastern part of Germany. Moscow now claims: Warsaw has territorial claims against Ukraine. Warsaw has always officially denied this Russian narrative.  

Relying on the American political tailwind, Warsaw and Bucharest strive for the role of a regional superpower. The two countries see a great opportunity in the malleable geostrategic situation caused by the war. They understand that Russia will not return captured territories to Ukraine. Furthermore, within Ukraine, the history, culture and traditions of the western parts of the country are significantly different compared to the eastern regions. In addition, Romania and Poland are members of the EU and NATO, so they can offer a much better standard of living and greater security for the population living in western Ukraine than before. In this view, the disintegration of Ukraine is not an unrealistic idea. So Romania and Poland want to assert their own national interests behind the screen of the war in Ukraine. 

However, there is a big obstacle in the way of the implementation of the Polish and Romanian plan. And this is Russia. Since the reign of Peter the Great, Moscow has always sought to have friendly countries in its vicinity. This is also why Russia opposes Ukraine's NATO membership. And Poland and Romania are not friends of Russia.