The Biden National Security Team (such as it is) is ignorant, incompetent and reckless.
Putin/Lavrov provided a starting point for negotiations on the 'Ukraine Issue' in December 2021. The Biden people slammed the door on that proposal, fully aware that doing so would probably result in a kinetic response from the Russians. Two years later hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians and Russians are dead, and Ukraine lies in ruins.
I was re-reading a speech that J. William Fulbright gave on the floor of the Senate in December 1967. The subject was (of course) Vietnam. Senator Fulbright said the following:
"People, it will be said, should be rational and should act on their interests, not their emotions...."
Victoria Nuland has a pathological hatred of Russia, Russians and Putin. She is in a rage possibly/probably as a result of how her ancestors were treated in the old country (which does have more than some basis in fact). She is the Biden Administration's prime policy maker insofar as Eastern Europe is concerned; her fingerprints are all over this. Punishing Russia may satisfy some deep emotional urge for Ms. Nuland, but was going down this road in the interests of the United States? The answer is obvious at this point. People with her type of emotional baggage should not be involved in making policy.
Not as broken as Russia’s North Western flank. 🇫🇮🇸🇪
With its prisons now empty, its economy in ruins and its stocks of ancient Soviet crap being depleted to nothing, the bear is DESPERATE. And the uptick in vatnick propaganda is the tell.
Getting rid of Zaluzhnyii serves at least two political goals. One, it removes a rival, and sends a signal that Ukraine is not permitted to negotiate.
And since Ukraine is a puppet state, all the real decisions are already made in the Pentagon. Zaluzhnyii or Budanov can repeat Washington's orders equally well.
Great summary. If the US and/or Europe are able to send Ukraine more money ($300 billion Russian money?), then it won't matter. Ukraine does not have enough able bodies to accomplish anything on a tactical level. Not to mention the response by Russia and the rest of the world if the $300 billion is touched.
HUR director and éminence grise Budanov is widely viewed as a psychopath, ruthlessly eliminating perceived enemies, domestic or foreign. After Zelensky replaced the head of the special forces - which report to Budanov - in November, without telling him or Zaluzhny beforehand, he and Budanov sidelined their main rival (Russian-trained) Zaluzhny by staging a series of provocative, indiscriminate HUR-directed attacks on Belgorod, across the Northern border from Kharkiv, attempting to escalate the conflict in the face of faltering NATO support.
He is known to have received psychiatric counselling in his youth, and claims his Russian opposites have tried to assassinate him 10 times since 2022. He recently claimed they poisoned his wife, who I call Lady Macbeth. But photos of her highly swollen lips and very heavy makeup (in weird costume) suggested self-inflicted Botox poisoning - Ukrainians use more Botox than any other nation, while the US supplier halted all deliveries to Russia (where Putin was rumoured by the Western press to be a client) in March 2022.
Great report today Stephen. While the time-line is still up for grabs,it's clear that we will have a NATO vs Russian war soon
With the grain fields of Ukraine contaminated by the war, what else is there worth fighting for? Dominance of Eastern Europe? A declaration of total war?
Perhaps so. Certainly if war is declared, the presidential election will be called off.
Unlike the last two world wars, this seems to involve combat on North America as well.
I have a question about the end of your article. In the beginning, you provide many quotes to support your points, however no such quotes around the end of the article, where you make the most surprising claims.
I understand fully that the nature of rumors is such that you couldn't give a quote relative to potential ousting of Zaluzhny and his replacement by Budanov. However, what about the in your words "relocation of Ukraine's capital, probably to Lviv" following potential loss of Kiev?
This claim would necessitate support all the more since it wouldn't seem to make a lot of sense. If the front collapses and Russian armed forces defeat or bypass resistence up to getting control of Kiev, what exactly could prevent them from grabbing Lviv too? Also, since termination of current Ukrainian government has been cited as an objective of Russia, why would they refrain from going to Lviv if that's where the Ukrainian government has translated?
Your worst case (for Western-oriented Ukrainians) seems to involve a complete collapse of the current essentially stable emtrenched front, where Russia is tidying up some small areas and a few larger pockets as AFU retreat to, and reinforce better defensive lines.
Not another few advances of 50 square miles per month, but maybe 50,000 square miles to the Dnieper.
I really don't see Russia taking Kramatorsk - which would complete a nice line from the Oskil to Vuhledar.
Sudden regime collapses can happen , and some Ukrainian spokesmen occasionally remind me of Comical Ali in their denial of evident reality... but Kiev seems like a bridge on the Dnieper way, way, way too far.
...Or are you foreseeing a complete political collapse in Western-allied Kiev, and installation of a new Russia-aligned regime controlling the whole Left Bank politically, without the need for significant military advance beyong the current line of contact (echoing the Russia-Poland partition of Ukraine in 1667)?
That also seems a hell of a stretch.. even controlling the old pre-2022 contact line in the East was pretty messy.
Some Telegram channels reported today: "Former People's Deputy of Ukraine Boris Bereza said that Zaluzhny was removed from the post of Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
We are waiting for the official announcement... Ukrainian sources write that he will be replaced by Zelensky’s main terrorist, Budanov..."
Looks like it's more than just a rumour. Well done Stephen Bryen!
According to Wikipedia in 2023 Russia’s GDP was 11th, after Canada in 10th.
You brought it up. Sorry it doesn’t support your “Russia is great” narrative, but the sad truth is that they are poorer, weaker and less secure than prior to their attempt to take Kyiv in 3 days!
Their army, navy and air force are decimated (literally) and their big, scary weapons platforms have been revealed as hoaxes -- no match for NATO’s cast offs.
They are good at throwing meat at ruined towns over and over, but little else.
"Putting Budanov in effective control of the new policy, and the relocation of Ukraine's capital, probably to Lviv, is the bedrock of the policy. Operationally the policy will be to use special operations, assassinations, bombings and any other means, including blowing up a nuclear reactor, to punish the Russians and keep them off balance. "
Don't you think indulging Ukraine in nuclear terrorism will send things down the rabbit hole in far worse ways than people could imagine?
Budanov, if anything, comes off to me as more of an extremist than Zaluzhny (who is rarely shown now). Both were picked to play the part they have now, and fit it well as far as PR is concerned. Wouldn't put too much credence into speculations about the intrigue in Kiev.
The upcoming US administration, whichever one signs the papers, is liable to get stuck with the unenviable task of pacifying multiple countries in the middle east, or else facing expulsion from at least some of them. Unless US policymakers really think it's possible with the resources they have to do it all, and do it all at once, they should be looking for ways to stabilize the situation in Ukraine.
Alas, thanks to the work of all three figures in today's story - Zelensky, Zaluzhny, and Budanov, they have already burned bridges with Russia completely, via an ongoing pattern of 'vengance strikes' as the Ukrainian leadership sees it. These simply inflame Russian public opinion and increase the amount of casualties RF public is willing to tolerate.
Fortunately for the US, Russian leadership appears content with a slow-burn attrition strategy, so there will probably not be an embarrassing repeat of Afghanistan during the election year. Notwithstanding the movements of recent days, there are not really any more palatable options for RF than to slug it out until Kiev's demographics are exhausted. This can be considered somewhat stable at least.
The Biden National Security Team (such as it is) is ignorant, incompetent and reckless.
Putin/Lavrov provided a starting point for negotiations on the 'Ukraine Issue' in December 2021. The Biden people slammed the door on that proposal, fully aware that doing so would probably result in a kinetic response from the Russians. Two years later hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians and Russians are dead, and Ukraine lies in ruins.
I was re-reading a speech that J. William Fulbright gave on the floor of the Senate in December 1967. The subject was (of course) Vietnam. Senator Fulbright said the following:
"People, it will be said, should be rational and should act on their interests, not their emotions...."
Victoria Nuland has a pathological hatred of Russia, Russians and Putin. She is in a rage possibly/probably as a result of how her ancestors were treated in the old country (which does have more than some basis in fact). She is the Biden Administration's prime policy maker insofar as Eastern Europe is concerned; her fingerprints are all over this. Punishing Russia may satisfy some deep emotional urge for Ms. Nuland, but was going down this road in the interests of the United States? The answer is obvious at this point. People with her type of emotional baggage should not be involved in making policy.
What an utter waste!
Not as broken as Russia’s North Western flank. 🇫🇮🇸🇪
With its prisons now empty, its economy in ruins and its stocks of ancient Soviet crap being depleted to nothing, the bear is DESPERATE. And the uptick in vatnick propaganda is the tell.
Getting rid of Zaluzhnyii serves at least two political goals. One, it removes a rival, and sends a signal that Ukraine is not permitted to negotiate.
And since Ukraine is a puppet state, all the real decisions are already made in the Pentagon. Zaluzhnyii or Budanov can repeat Washington's orders equally well.
Great summary. If the US and/or Europe are able to send Ukraine more money ($300 billion Russian money?), then it won't matter. Ukraine does not have enough able bodies to accomplish anything on a tactical level. Not to mention the response by Russia and the rest of the world if the $300 billion is touched.
You always do the analysis of the situation on the ground well.
The conclusion is that the game is over and we need to stop wasting time.
Indeed, our foreign policy everywhere is a loser.
Time to come home America.
HUR director and éminence grise Budanov is widely viewed as a psychopath, ruthlessly eliminating perceived enemies, domestic or foreign. After Zelensky replaced the head of the special forces - which report to Budanov - in November, without telling him or Zaluzhny beforehand, he and Budanov sidelined their main rival (Russian-trained) Zaluzhny by staging a series of provocative, indiscriminate HUR-directed attacks on Belgorod, across the Northern border from Kharkiv, attempting to escalate the conflict in the face of faltering NATO support.
He is known to have received psychiatric counselling in his youth, and claims his Russian opposites have tried to assassinate him 10 times since 2022. He recently claimed they poisoned his wife, who I call Lady Macbeth. But photos of her highly swollen lips and very heavy makeup (in weird costume) suggested self-inflicted Botox poisoning - Ukrainians use more Botox than any other nation, while the US supplier halted all deliveries to Russia (where Putin was rumoured by the Western press to be a client) in March 2022.
Another rather unoriginal “analysis” of the “Ukraine is Doomed” school.
Don’t take my word for it. For an excellent and timely article which clearly outlines the flaws inherent in boosterism or (as in this piece) doom mongering, read this article by the master: https://open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/ukraine-through-the-gloom?r=1emxrt&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
Great report today Stephen. While the time-line is still up for grabs,it's clear that we will have a NATO vs Russian war soon
With the grain fields of Ukraine contaminated by the war, what else is there worth fighting for? Dominance of Eastern Europe? A declaration of total war?
Perhaps so. Certainly if war is declared, the presidential election will be called off.
Unlike the last two world wars, this seems to involve combat on North America as well.
I have a question about the end of your article. In the beginning, you provide many quotes to support your points, however no such quotes around the end of the article, where you make the most surprising claims.
I understand fully that the nature of rumors is such that you couldn't give a quote relative to potential ousting of Zaluzhny and his replacement by Budanov. However, what about the in your words "relocation of Ukraine's capital, probably to Lviv" following potential loss of Kiev?
This claim would necessitate support all the more since it wouldn't seem to make a lot of sense. If the front collapses and Russian armed forces defeat or bypass resistence up to getting control of Kiev, what exactly could prevent them from grabbing Lviv too? Also, since termination of current Ukrainian government has been cited as an objective of Russia, why would they refrain from going to Lviv if that's where the Ukrainian government has translated?
Good stuff Thanks as always, Stephen.
"Rumours are like assholes. Everyone has one, and they usually stink." -Army proverb.
Your article makes some interesting claims, but none of them are backed up with a single citation.
So, your work is at best slipshod, and probably disinformation.
I can easily find Kremlin useful idiots. I'm still reading you but currently you're definitely not saying anything insightful or even accurate.
Your worst case (for Western-oriented Ukrainians) seems to involve a complete collapse of the current essentially stable emtrenched front, where Russia is tidying up some small areas and a few larger pockets as AFU retreat to, and reinforce better defensive lines.
Not another few advances of 50 square miles per month, but maybe 50,000 square miles to the Dnieper.
I really don't see Russia taking Kramatorsk - which would complete a nice line from the Oskil to Vuhledar.
Sudden regime collapses can happen , and some Ukrainian spokesmen occasionally remind me of Comical Ali in their denial of evident reality... but Kiev seems like a bridge on the Dnieper way, way, way too far.
...Or are you foreseeing a complete political collapse in Western-allied Kiev, and installation of a new Russia-aligned regime controlling the whole Left Bank politically, without the need for significant military advance beyong the current line of contact (echoing the Russia-Poland partition of Ukraine in 1667)?
That also seems a hell of a stretch.. even controlling the old pre-2022 contact line in the East was pretty messy.
Some Telegram channels reported today: "Former People's Deputy of Ukraine Boris Bereza said that Zaluzhny was removed from the post of Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
We are waiting for the official announcement... Ukrainian sources write that he will be replaced by Zelensky’s main terrorist, Budanov..."
Looks like it's more than just a rumour. Well done Stephen Bryen!
According to Wikipedia in 2023 Russia’s GDP was 11th, after Canada in 10th.
You brought it up. Sorry it doesn’t support your “Russia is great” narrative, but the sad truth is that they are poorer, weaker and less secure than prior to their attempt to take Kyiv in 3 days!
Their army, navy and air force are decimated (literally) and their big, scary weapons platforms have been revealed as hoaxes -- no match for NATO’s cast offs.
They are good at throwing meat at ruined towns over and over, but little else.
"Putting Budanov in effective control of the new policy, and the relocation of Ukraine's capital, probably to Lviv, is the bedrock of the policy. Operationally the policy will be to use special operations, assassinations, bombings and any other means, including blowing up a nuclear reactor, to punish the Russians and keep them off balance. "
Don't you think indulging Ukraine in nuclear terrorism will send things down the rabbit hole in far worse ways than people could imagine?
Budanov, if anything, comes off to me as more of an extremist than Zaluzhny (who is rarely shown now). Both were picked to play the part they have now, and fit it well as far as PR is concerned. Wouldn't put too much credence into speculations about the intrigue in Kiev.
The upcoming US administration, whichever one signs the papers, is liable to get stuck with the unenviable task of pacifying multiple countries in the middle east, or else facing expulsion from at least some of them. Unless US policymakers really think it's possible with the resources they have to do it all, and do it all at once, they should be looking for ways to stabilize the situation in Ukraine.
Alas, thanks to the work of all three figures in today's story - Zelensky, Zaluzhny, and Budanov, they have already burned bridges with Russia completely, via an ongoing pattern of 'vengance strikes' as the Ukrainian leadership sees it. These simply inflame Russian public opinion and increase the amount of casualties RF public is willing to tolerate.
Fortunately for the US, Russian leadership appears content with a slow-burn attrition strategy, so there will probably not be an embarrassing repeat of Afghanistan during the election year. Notwithstanding the movements of recent days, there are not really any more palatable options for RF than to slug it out until Kiev's demographics are exhausted. This can be considered somewhat stable at least.