The whole affair, as portrayed by the western media, follows rumors that fit an agenda rather than facts that tell the truth. The facts are that the Russian MOD wanted Prigozhin out of Ukraine and they got Prigozhin out of Ukraine. The fact that he and his mercenary army had been regarded as super heroes in the war posed a dilemma for Putin; how cold he explain them deserving the fate of traitors when they had proved to be patriotic heroes? Could have consequences.
Take a losing ituation and turn it into a "win-win" situation. Putin turned pragmatic and used Prigozhin' patriotism to elevate the mercenary army into a new and valuable defensive position in Belarus, which is a soft underbelly for NATO forces.
You mean a soft underbelly for Russia. Belarus was in danger of becoming a dangerous distraction for a Russian Army that so far is stretched to thevmax dealing with Ukraines counteroffensive. I remember a CIA spokesman talking in terms of a revolution in Belarus in March 22. Wagner is perfect for shoring up this weak spot and training up.a new Belarus Army that presumably would be a lot more loyal than the Army Lukashenko has started out with and certainly bigger and better equipped.
Maybe we'll never know for sure the real story of the Wagner/Progozhin incident, but its certainly fascinating. Mr. Bryen, in your previous post you had links to 2 videos by Wagner commanders. I thought what they had to say was very interesting. Maybe you are right about Alexander Lukashenko - he may have his own reasons for becoming involved in the Wagner saga. Yesterday I watched a live stream on The Duran youtube channel with Dmitry Mironchik - the Belarussian ambassador to Norway & Sweden. He did a deep dive into why Belarus deems both NATO and Poland a valid and direct threat to Belarus, why they decided to host Russian nukes, their economy & how they realize it would be detrimental to growth to spend more GDP on militarizing, etc. It was very interesting. As a casual plane geek, I've seen a shift in military aviation traffic (US/UK/NATO) over the past few months. Traffic is much greater in the Baltic area now; Poland & Estonia especially; lots of equipment probably being moved. A US Navy Poseidon out of Iceland regularly flies just off the coast of Kaliningrad & sometimes even flies in circles around Kaliningrad for hours. Could be posturing/intimidation, or maybe the vultures are really circling. Either way, maybe the whole Wagner drama was an opportunity for Belarus - and the Kremlin - to end up with some experienced fighters close by. I read that about 5 columns of Wagnerites, about 100 vehicles each made it to Belarus this week.
Your observations are on point. The US/UK and Poland definitely are building up a front and British advisors are with Poland's land army on the Belarus border. Lukashenko needs all the help he can get, so Wagner is critical. The Russians prefer Wagner because then Russia has plausible deniability in case fighting starts. But that won't last long as war in Europe is an almost certainty.
Also, my perception is that the "unhappiness" with the war among Russians is mostly not understanding why MOD/Political establishment is "slow playing" it. Only a small percent of population questions the rationale for the war. Most Russians do understand the big picture.
I saw the same about Popov, but I am not sure it is right.
As for public opinion, as Russia is not democratic, the really important sentiment is in the nomenklatura (both civilian and military) and not general public opinion
Might I offer another angle? With the country involved in a large conflict - with the definite possibility of a full-blown war with NATO - maybe public opinion does count more than we realize. Its the everyday folks - the public - who work in the factories that produce the weapons and actually go to the battlefield, not the nomenklatura. I wonder if some of these elites had a foot in the west and one in Russia - maybe allowing them to get some yachts confiscated was a way to make them choose and let those who don't choose their country to flee to the West and good riddance to those who go West.
As far as the Russian public that work in the factories, service industries -- I get a lot of feedback on how the local factories are humming, IT sector recovering, economy is busy substituting western imports and making weapons. There are a lot of folks volunteering for SMO (it is good money for an average factory worker --3-4X of his salary). This is just a new normal and everybody is in for the long haul on this. Just understanding the Russian psyche, I am not surprised at all of the strong support for the president and "rally around the flag" effect here. The sanction barrage on the Russian economy and specifically on the Russian rich was the most counter-productive thing to date imo. They gave Putin all the ammunition he needed to convince the public.
Very interesting! Thanks for sharing. People don't usually turn to the side of those who threaten their ability to put bread on the table - the folly of sanctions.
The war has been ramping up. Russia is winning the fighting. The West is relying on its domination of the international scene to overcome their military weakness. From the start, the Western plan has been to topple Putin. Putin is aware of this, and thus has to tighten the ship. The economic sanctions are, as you note, part of this. The struggle with Prigozhin is apparentloy ongoing, with Putin playing the long game.
This is interesting but not surprising if we keep in mind that before CIA heads and other intelligence officials became well-known public figures via cable news stations this is how spy craft went. Exposing the "leaks" and the "leakers" through covert operations was the norm and the use of "plumbers" to figure out how to stop the "leaks" was very common but kept quiet. My personal take on this whole situation is that Russia, seeing that there's been no serious offers of an off-ramp to settle the war, is battening down the hatches and getting ready for the possibility of all-out war with the West. Additionally, while the rest of Europe/NATO (Germany, France, Italy, et al.) is very hesitant about poking the bear any further beyond the supplying of arms, Poland still seems willing to say "here, hold my beer" and be the new proxy combatant for the United States; however, with an attack by a NATO member in good standing, Poland may just learn a new phrase that goes "f*ck around and find out."
Interesting comment. I can't be sure how independent the Poles are in any of this, but if I was to guess I would say not at all. Polish ops are supported by the US and UK, and I think the gambit to stir up trouble in Belarus has its origin in London and Washington.
The UK & Poland just announced their "Strategic Partnership 2030", so definitely a strong UK influence on the PL gov't. Add to that the 100s of millions the US has spent over the past few years re-militarizing PL and being able to place permanent US troops there. Looks like a first-class cabin for the Poles on the Titanic, but that's just my opinion.
It will be interesting to dig in deeper and better understand your last paragraph. You say that, Russia has always depended upon its elites. For What? For the power that they must possess; in that I suppose they run the economic sectors of the country. (Since they collaborated to steal all of it 30 years ago.)
So if you don't do what the elites demand what is their counter? You say that they could DEFECT? Does that mean that they will pick up the heavy industry that they control, and carry it off to the EU? At times they have strip-mined its profits and operating capital, and carried that off into the off-shores, like Cyprus.
In other words, the only power the elites have is to crash the economy and crash the country. Not unlike the Americans. The Americans can do it faster though, since they have made their finances like the Pyramid of Giza balanced on its point.
And of course that is to be avoided at all costs, with some form of compromise. That compromise you have called, "And they are generously rewarded." Which must mean that they are allowed to keep some of their ripped-off gains. (Not unlike the Americans.) After all, billionaires are billionaire, wherever they reside.
So what is the mechanism for Russian elites to give President Putin insurmountable problems? If they begin to crash the industry, people will loose jobs, and supplies will be cut off to the military. I would say that might last about 48 hours, judging by how fast certain western commercial holdings were (temporarily) nationalized. Will they control the newspapers and claim Putin is involved in some sex scandal? Why would they do that, since much of the economy is working on overdrive, at least the military industrial complex and energy, and the profits abound.
Prigozhin is a billionaire by the way, and one of the biggest dangers because he had his own huge army of goons. I say the other elites will never support him, because he would take over all of their holdings. Putin is the much better deal for them.
Please further explain what you meant by that statement.
What I meant was political. If sentiment in the elites turns against the war in Ukraine and the struggle with NATO, there is a possibility they will look for a different leader for the country, or even have their own candidate. I did not, and do not, think this would involve economic pressure on the current regime, but of course it could.
As far as Russias elites go, I am reminded of something Putin said to them in his State of the Nation address: You can go to the West and go from courtroom to courtroom to keep your wealth or you can invest in Russia". Certainly Russias elites took a hit from sanctions but as Jaques Baude has pointed out in one of his Postil articles Putin warned Russias elites sanctions would be heavy months before February 2022, giving them time to get a lot of their assets out of the Western banks. Those who heeded Putins warning no doubt see him as a visionary. They can get their wealth back. The real question is how many of them are allegiant to Western and neoliberal values. Putins mentor Anatoly Sobchak was one who felt he had to leave Russia for the West.
The full video prigozhin introduces Dimitri uktin as the leader. You might've missed that part. Cause what utkin says is way more telling/meaningful than anything prigozhin says. Remember back before Wagner prigozhin was the troll master of Russia. People seem to forget that 😉
“Hello guys. We are glad to welcome you all on your arrival to the Belarusian land. We fought well. You have served Russia.
What is happening now on the front (due to the command of the Ministry of Defense) is an embarrassment in which we do not need to participate.
For now we need to wait for the moment when we can prove ourselves in full.
Therefore, it was decided that we would be here in Belarus for some time.
During this time we will train and make them (the Belarus army), the second best army in the world (after Wagner!)
And if necessary, we will stand up for them, and fight.
I want to ask everyone to pay maximum attention to the fact that the Belarusians met us not only as Heroes, but also as brothers.
They say that local girls in shops whisper and smile that the Wagnerians have arrived.
Therefore, we will also treat the Belarusians in a brotherly way.
Then we prepare, raise our level and set off on a new path - to Africa.
But perhaps we will return to the war in Ukraine, at the moment when we are sure that we will not be forced to shame ourselves and our experience.
We brought a flag from the base in Molkino, which we will hand over to the staff here in Belarus. And also two ribbons of the Russian and Belarusian flags, so that no one would think that we are fighting without a Flag and without a Motherland, as some people write.
And now I will give the floor to the Commander, who gave us the name Wagner Group."
Then the speech begins of commander Dimitri Utkin:
“Yes, if anyone does not know, I am the first Wagner. Most of you know me, most of you I know personally. Thanks for the work you've done. Thanks to this work, the name of the Wagner Group thunders throughout the world. Thanks to all! Guys thank you very much! This is not the end, this is just the beginning of the biggest work in the world. And it will start very soon. So Welcome to Hell!"
thanks stephen... all good and valid speculation, but it will remain speculation until more facts are known.. the issue of the elites in russia is an interesting question too.. is russia like the oligarchs of the west that are happy to sell out their own country for their own welfare?? i don't doubt it, but at least in the west - the corporate dominance can't be viewed as anything associated with democracy.. in fact, it is much the opposite and we now live in a corporate plutocracy with this thin veneer of democracy held up to the masses as legit - when it isn't...
The whole affair, as portrayed by the western media, follows rumors that fit an agenda rather than facts that tell the truth. The facts are that the Russian MOD wanted Prigozhin out of Ukraine and they got Prigozhin out of Ukraine. The fact that he and his mercenary army had been regarded as super heroes in the war posed a dilemma for Putin; how cold he explain them deserving the fate of traitors when they had proved to be patriotic heroes? Could have consequences.
Take a losing ituation and turn it into a "win-win" situation. Putin turned pragmatic and used Prigozhin' patriotism to elevate the mercenary army into a new and valuable defensive position in Belarus, which is a soft underbelly for NATO forces.
You mean a soft underbelly for Russia. Belarus was in danger of becoming a dangerous distraction for a Russian Army that so far is stretched to thevmax dealing with Ukraines counteroffensive. I remember a CIA spokesman talking in terms of a revolution in Belarus in March 22. Wagner is perfect for shoring up this weak spot and training up.a new Belarus Army that presumably would be a lot more loyal than the Army Lukashenko has started out with and certainly bigger and better equipped.
Maybe we'll never know for sure the real story of the Wagner/Progozhin incident, but its certainly fascinating. Mr. Bryen, in your previous post you had links to 2 videos by Wagner commanders. I thought what they had to say was very interesting. Maybe you are right about Alexander Lukashenko - he may have his own reasons for becoming involved in the Wagner saga. Yesterday I watched a live stream on The Duran youtube channel with Dmitry Mironchik - the Belarussian ambassador to Norway & Sweden. He did a deep dive into why Belarus deems both NATO and Poland a valid and direct threat to Belarus, why they decided to host Russian nukes, their economy & how they realize it would be detrimental to growth to spend more GDP on militarizing, etc. It was very interesting. As a casual plane geek, I've seen a shift in military aviation traffic (US/UK/NATO) over the past few months. Traffic is much greater in the Baltic area now; Poland & Estonia especially; lots of equipment probably being moved. A US Navy Poseidon out of Iceland regularly flies just off the coast of Kaliningrad & sometimes even flies in circles around Kaliningrad for hours. Could be posturing/intimidation, or maybe the vultures are really circling. Either way, maybe the whole Wagner drama was an opportunity for Belarus - and the Kremlin - to end up with some experienced fighters close by. I read that about 5 columns of Wagnerites, about 100 vehicles each made it to Belarus this week.
Your observations are on point. The US/UK and Poland definitely are building up a front and British advisors are with Poland's land army on the Belarus border. Lukashenko needs all the help he can get, so Wagner is critical. The Russians prefer Wagner because then Russia has plausible deniability in case fighting starts. But that won't last long as war in Europe is an almost certainty.
supposedly Popov was reassigned to Syria...
Also, my perception is that the "unhappiness" with the war among Russians is mostly not understanding why MOD/Political establishment is "slow playing" it. Only a small percent of population questions the rationale for the war. Most Russians do understand the big picture.
I saw the same about Popov, but I am not sure it is right.
As for public opinion, as Russia is not democratic, the really important sentiment is in the nomenklatura (both civilian and military) and not general public opinion
Might I offer another angle? With the country involved in a large conflict - with the definite possibility of a full-blown war with NATO - maybe public opinion does count more than we realize. Its the everyday folks - the public - who work in the factories that produce the weapons and actually go to the battlefield, not the nomenklatura. I wonder if some of these elites had a foot in the west and one in Russia - maybe allowing them to get some yachts confiscated was a way to make them choose and let those who don't choose their country to flee to the West and good riddance to those who go West.
Good point. Protests from the bottom up are always possible but not yet really seen.
As far as the Russian public that work in the factories, service industries -- I get a lot of feedback on how the local factories are humming, IT sector recovering, economy is busy substituting western imports and making weapons. There are a lot of folks volunteering for SMO (it is good money for an average factory worker --3-4X of his salary). This is just a new normal and everybody is in for the long haul on this. Just understanding the Russian psyche, I am not surprised at all of the strong support for the president and "rally around the flag" effect here. The sanction barrage on the Russian economy and specifically on the Russian rich was the most counter-productive thing to date imo. They gave Putin all the ammunition he needed to convince the public.
Interesting argument. Thanks.
Very interesting! Thanks for sharing. People don't usually turn to the side of those who threaten their ability to put bread on the table - the folly of sanctions.
The war has been ramping up. Russia is winning the fighting. The West is relying on its domination of the international scene to overcome their military weakness. From the start, the Western plan has been to topple Putin. Putin is aware of this, and thus has to tighten the ship. The economic sanctions are, as you note, part of this. The struggle with Prigozhin is apparentloy ongoing, with Putin playing the long game.
This is interesting but not surprising if we keep in mind that before CIA heads and other intelligence officials became well-known public figures via cable news stations this is how spy craft went. Exposing the "leaks" and the "leakers" through covert operations was the norm and the use of "plumbers" to figure out how to stop the "leaks" was very common but kept quiet. My personal take on this whole situation is that Russia, seeing that there's been no serious offers of an off-ramp to settle the war, is battening down the hatches and getting ready for the possibility of all-out war with the West. Additionally, while the rest of Europe/NATO (Germany, France, Italy, et al.) is very hesitant about poking the bear any further beyond the supplying of arms, Poland still seems willing to say "here, hold my beer" and be the new proxy combatant for the United States; however, with an attack by a NATO member in good standing, Poland may just learn a new phrase that goes "f*ck around and find out."
Interesting comment. I can't be sure how independent the Poles are in any of this, but if I was to guess I would say not at all. Polish ops are supported by the US and UK, and I think the gambit to stir up trouble in Belarus has its origin in London and Washington.
The UK & Poland just announced their "Strategic Partnership 2030", so definitely a strong UK influence on the PL gov't. Add to that the 100s of millions the US has spent over the past few years re-militarizing PL and being able to place permanent US troops there. Looks like a first-class cabin for the Poles on the Titanic, but that's just my opinion.
good comment
Not to mention that Sikorski is Anne Applebee's husband.
It will be interesting to dig in deeper and better understand your last paragraph. You say that, Russia has always depended upon its elites. For What? For the power that they must possess; in that I suppose they run the economic sectors of the country. (Since they collaborated to steal all of it 30 years ago.)
So if you don't do what the elites demand what is their counter? You say that they could DEFECT? Does that mean that they will pick up the heavy industry that they control, and carry it off to the EU? At times they have strip-mined its profits and operating capital, and carried that off into the off-shores, like Cyprus.
In other words, the only power the elites have is to crash the economy and crash the country. Not unlike the Americans. The Americans can do it faster though, since they have made their finances like the Pyramid of Giza balanced on its point.
And of course that is to be avoided at all costs, with some form of compromise. That compromise you have called, "And they are generously rewarded." Which must mean that they are allowed to keep some of their ripped-off gains. (Not unlike the Americans.) After all, billionaires are billionaire, wherever they reside.
So what is the mechanism for Russian elites to give President Putin insurmountable problems? If they begin to crash the industry, people will loose jobs, and supplies will be cut off to the military. I would say that might last about 48 hours, judging by how fast certain western commercial holdings were (temporarily) nationalized. Will they control the newspapers and claim Putin is involved in some sex scandal? Why would they do that, since much of the economy is working on overdrive, at least the military industrial complex and energy, and the profits abound.
Prigozhin is a billionaire by the way, and one of the biggest dangers because he had his own huge army of goons. I say the other elites will never support him, because he would take over all of their holdings. Putin is the much better deal for them.
Please further explain what you meant by that statement.
Thanks
.
What I meant was political. If sentiment in the elites turns against the war in Ukraine and the struggle with NATO, there is a possibility they will look for a different leader for the country, or even have their own candidate. I did not, and do not, think this would involve economic pressure on the current regime, but of course it could.
As far as Russias elites go, I am reminded of something Putin said to them in his State of the Nation address: You can go to the West and go from courtroom to courtroom to keep your wealth or you can invest in Russia". Certainly Russias elites took a hit from sanctions but as Jaques Baude has pointed out in one of his Postil articles Putin warned Russias elites sanctions would be heavy months before February 2022, giving them time to get a lot of their assets out of the Western banks. Those who heeded Putins warning no doubt see him as a visionary. They can get their wealth back. The real question is how many of them are allegiant to Western and neoliberal values. Putins mentor Anatoly Sobchak was one who felt he had to leave Russia for the West.
The full video prigozhin introduces Dimitri uktin as the leader. You might've missed that part. Cause what utkin says is way more telling/meaningful than anything prigozhin says. Remember back before Wagner prigozhin was the troll master of Russia. People seem to forget that 😉
Utkin is the cofounder of Wagner. He was not named by Putin as the new head.
Here is the transcript of what they said:
Evgeny Prigozhin spoke first:
“Hello guys. We are glad to welcome you all on your arrival to the Belarusian land. We fought well. You have served Russia.
What is happening now on the front (due to the command of the Ministry of Defense) is an embarrassment in which we do not need to participate.
For now we need to wait for the moment when we can prove ourselves in full.
Therefore, it was decided that we would be here in Belarus for some time.
During this time we will train and make them (the Belarus army), the second best army in the world (after Wagner!)
And if necessary, we will stand up for them, and fight.
I want to ask everyone to pay maximum attention to the fact that the Belarusians met us not only as Heroes, but also as brothers.
They say that local girls in shops whisper and smile that the Wagnerians have arrived.
Therefore, we will also treat the Belarusians in a brotherly way.
Then we prepare, raise our level and set off on a new path - to Africa.
But perhaps we will return to the war in Ukraine, at the moment when we are sure that we will not be forced to shame ourselves and our experience.
We brought a flag from the base in Molkino, which we will hand over to the staff here in Belarus. And also two ribbons of the Russian and Belarusian flags, so that no one would think that we are fighting without a Flag and without a Motherland, as some people write.
And now I will give the floor to the Commander, who gave us the name Wagner Group."
Then the speech begins of commander Dimitri Utkin:
“Yes, if anyone does not know, I am the first Wagner. Most of you know me, most of you I know personally. Thanks for the work you've done. Thanks to this work, the name of the Wagner Group thunders throughout the world. Thanks to all! Guys thank you very much! This is not the end, this is just the beginning of the biggest work in the world. And it will start very soon. So Welcome to Hell!"
Be True to Yourself! 💪
thanks stephen... all good and valid speculation, but it will remain speculation until more facts are known.. the issue of the elites in russia is an interesting question too.. is russia like the oligarchs of the west that are happy to sell out their own country for their own welfare?? i don't doubt it, but at least in the west - the corporate dominance can't be viewed as anything associated with democracy.. in fact, it is much the opposite and we now live in a corporate plutocracy with this thin veneer of democracy held up to the masses as legit - when it isn't...