92 Comments

"Israel is fighting for its survival"? WHAT?!

What should the Palestinians say?

There are UN resolutions that have never been respected/implemented: 181, 194, 242 and 338

https://www.un.org/unispal/data-collection/general-assembly/

Trump called Israeli Defense Minister Gallant "a jerk"? Well... he did very well, to say the least, considering that he is putting Gaza under siege, with no humanitarian aid allowed, with no water, food, fuel, energy. He even admitted it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVPdSpCAbB0

This is a genocide, ethnic cleansing. Calling the Israeli Defense Minister Gallant "a jerk" is just the bare minimum. He should be put on trial in front of the International Court of Justice. Or is that valid only for Putin and the Russians?

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author

I can't agree with anything you say. Hamas needs to be eliminated root and branch. Any self-respecting Palestinian should not want to be tarred with the Hamas brush. Palestinians who want to make progress and live peacefully alongside Israel should not support terrorism. Unfortunately, they are taught to hate in their schools and encouraged to hate by their irresponsible governments (who mostly get rich at their expense).

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You cannot agree with anything I say?! Really? So, you support indiscriminate bombing and extermination of an entire people!?

Well... in this case, you have just lost a subscriber and probably more.

Goodbye!

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author

I did not say I support indiscriminate bombing. You need to learn to read what people say more objectively and carefully. It is OK if you unsubscribe. I don't charge for my Substack, so it is inconsequential to me.

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Since this blog is more about "weapons and strategy", could you please stick to these topics?

For instance, let's talk about the Israeli "Iron Dome"... it looks like it is more of a hoax rather than anything else - see the last 3 videos in this post: https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/israeli-ground-forces-get-cold-feet

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author

Iron Dome is not a "hoax" by any means. However, if you have 3,000 interceptors and 5,000 missiles are fired at you. even 100% Iron Dome can't cope. No air defense system in the world can. In fact, Iron Dome has destroyed more than 2,000 Hamas rockets, so it obviously works very well. The truth of the matter is that all air defense must be teamed with active defense. Otherwise you are toast.

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I'm curious about Hamas' '5000 missiles', '5000 rockets'...

Both 'missiles' and 'rockets' summon up in people's minds those huge weapons the USA, Russia, Israel, have...

Exaggerations during war are common...Such terms, used during the current conflict, suggest there's an equivalence in the weaponry of the belligerents...Though i cant find any attempt to equate Hamas' flying machines with Israel's American F-16s, etc...

I.m also curious why everyone accepted the '5000' figure, given as it apparently was claimed by 'those lying Palestinians.'

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Also, let's talk about how Biden has left many Middle-East countries without an ambassador for years: Israel, Egypt, Kuwait, Lebanon and Oman.

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Congress needs to approve the appointments. Rand Paul is holding them up. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/09/white-house-pushes-senate-to-confirm-a-us-ambassador-to-israel.html

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Pretty sure armed conflict falls under the "weapons and strategy" Venn diagram as Ms. Harris would put it.

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Wow. With everyone all ornery. I'm almost afraid to comment! Well, here goes. I give Trump more leeway to comment on the situation given that he had cut aid to Hamas; acknowledged Jerusalem as belonging to Israel and moved our embassy there after every other President promised to but didn't; additionally, there's a price on his head by the IRGC for the killing of Solemani who was a very, very bad guy. So he's fought in the ring and should be able to offer his opinion - even if people don't like it. Besides, his grandchildren are Jewish so he might be a little more angrier than most. Joe Biden? I'm taking anything he says with a grain of salt because the White House keeps walking back quite a bit of what's being said. Furthermore, he likes giving money to Hamas, Ukraine and Iran with zero conditions or discussions. In fact, he's a hero to Iran after swapping money for hostages. Now, Hersh is claiming that Bibi is finished because of this because his rep for being the only one able to keep Israel safe is now tarnished which may also be true for Gallant. But there were other missteps as well (the storing of guns in central areas and not homes anymore) but that reckoning will come later and plenty of people on Israel will have harsher statements tjan President Trump. On a personal note, I've seen most if not all of the videos released by Hamas (and, no, Israel didn't release them) and while I've seen some horrific things in life including some that can't be unseen, these are some of the worst I've seen in terms of capturing the essence of pure evil. Hamas messed up bad and they're not long for this earth. The Palestinians would be wise to give them up now to avoid the same fate.

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Oct 12, 2023·edited Oct 12, 2023

stephen... it is fairly well documented how israel helped to support and make hamas as an alternative to the leadership of the previous leaders - arafat and etc. they had to work with... there is so much water under the bridge 75 years later, but what is clear is that israel has been involved in a slow genocide and ethic cleansing of the palestinian people leaving them little of any choice other then terrorist type actions... i am sorry if you and others are unable to see this, but i suspect the american msm and those under its sway - have presented a very lopsided view on the state of israel for a very long time... one can't expect to have the inmates in the largest open air prison on the planet ( gaza), not want to fight back at some point... another approach is always possible, but the off ramps haven't been taken and israel has moved further and further to the extreme right.. one sees this in the political dynamics in israel and a whole lot more, if they care to be somewhat objective in their analysis of what is happening here..

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author

Israel has not been involved in any genocide, slow or fast. Total nonsense.

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no mention of my ethic cleansing comment? don't you see how they are directly related??

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If there has been even a slow genocide then please explain how Palestinian population in Gaza and west bank has continually grown over the last 80 years. A genocide would mean fewer, not more people

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Oct 13, 2023·edited Oct 13, 2023

how do you differentiate between ethic cleansing and a slow genocide? the number of deaths? its true the number of palestianians have been growing, but this is much like poverty in some countries where, in spite of poverty, people have more children... whether it is poverty or ethic cleansing that contributes to the population growth - a slow genocide is the goal of israel... they would never openly admit this, just as the nazis would never have admitted it either, although yaov gallants commentary hits close to the mark..

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author

I don't agree with what you say and it is not based on any facts whatever. The Palestinian population has been growing in the West Bank and Gaza. There is no

ethnic cleaning. That is pure nonsense.

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it's also best to not talk about stealing their land too... the land grab by israel is also very pronounced.. i suppose some won't agree with me on this either, lol...

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Oct 13, 2023·edited Oct 13, 2023

that's fine... we see it very differently then.. hoping that all of gaza will take a one way trip to egypt is more of the same.. this 2 tiered system where palestinians are treated as 2nd class citizens and worse is indeed a fact, as is the ethic cleansing/slow genocide approach that israel is taking here..

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Just to make it clear: I condemn any violence from any side.

Actually, I will tell you more: Israel has the right to respond, to locate the terrorists and bring them to justice. But they are not allowed to bomb indiscriminately Gaza, as they are doing, killing thousands of innocent Palestinians, especially women and children. This is plain abhorrent! They call Palestinians animals? Well... if they act like Hamas terrorists, they are beast too!

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author

We don't really know how many were killed in Gaza, so you can't say thousands or anything else yet. Meanwhile the Israeli government is asking real civilians there to take shelter. Hamas has made this a mess and it is hard to work through it.

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6000 bombs in 6 Days

The death toll in Gaza now stands at 1,417 people, while the number of people killed in Israel has reached 1,300.

Who wins killing more people?

Madness...

It has to stop not fuel more weapons and violence. This could spread to all Middle East.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/10/11/israel-hamas-war-live-gaza-faces-growing-humanitarian-catastrophe

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author

I would be very suspicious of any numbers coming from Gaza.

The idea is to kill Hamas. They use civilians as human shields. We all know that.

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it is indiscriminate... it is essentially ethic cleansing that the west now approves of - as i see it.. these are war crimes, and two wrongs never make any of it right..

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author

you can't possibly know that. You make statements based on your point of view, not on facts on the ground. Israel has long been very precise about how it retaliates, way beyond anything we ever did in Iraq or Afghanistan, for example.

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It is all full of human shields! Go in and pick them one by one not demolition of entire buildings. Why you don’t go there to help?

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In addition to Stephens comment, we also don't know yet how may of those 1147 killed in Gaza are Hamas terrorists.

I hate to see any innocents die, but remember that of the 1300 Israelis and non Israeli and non-jewish residents killed, the vast majority were innocent civilians, many of them babies and children

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oh, but i think ismaele is on the right path in seeing what is happening here... to quote yoav gallant confirms it.. - "There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everything is closed," he was reported as telling commanders at the Israel Defense Forces' Southern Command.

"We are fighting human animals and we are acting accordingly," he added, per the paper's translation of his remarks." these are war crimes under the full authority of the head of israeli defense ministers words..

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https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/10/1142177

Rising death toll

The death toll in Israel from attacks by Palestinian armed groups, and in Gaza due to Israeli bombardments, has continued to rise, with mass displacement soaring across the enclave, the UN humanitarian affairs coordination office, OCHA, said on Wednesday.

OCHA cited Israeli media, which reported that as of Tuesday evening, more than 1,000 Israelis, including foreign nationals, were killed and at least 2,806 people were injured, according to the Ministry of Health.

The Ministry of Health in Gaza said at least 830 Palestinians have been killed and 4,250 injured.

Over a tenth of the population in Gaza, more than 260,000 people, have been displaced since the start of the current conflict on 7 October and the numbers are rising fast.

Eleven UNRWA staff killed

Amidst the volatile situation, UN agency for Palestine refugees (UNRWA) reported that eleven of its staff members have been killed since Saturday, while 30 students its schools died and a further eight injured.

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Yawn. How about outrage for a moronic foreign policy establishment the Biden oversees that led to War in Ukraine and Israel. Where is you outrage for Bidens stated goal of fostering a triumvirate of a strong Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iran? Instead of trying to diminish Iran, they are helping Iran. Cut the petty crap, get real

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author

I agree with you the Biden policy on Iran is a disaster or even worse because Iran has infiltrated our government including DOD and the White House. I am working on an article about Iran's nuclear program which is being helped along with US and European money and technology and some crazy idea that Iran as a nuclear power would be a good thing.

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Well. I don’t like the guy but he is quite right and he must know about what happened when he assasinated. Souleimani. For Hezbolla better they don’t intervene with their large stockpile of weapons and experienced fighters or Israel will have a hard time to handle both fronts.

Anyway the whole thing is madness and about who kills more innocent people and more ammo is sold.

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Oct 12, 2023·edited Oct 12, 2023

The Israeli military has become increasingly leftist over the years. They have been engaged in a slow rolling coup against Netenyahu and any conservative coalition. Mossad had many of its operatives and much of its focus in Ukraine helping to fight Russia.

The military leadership was completely disorganized in its response to the attack with victims waiting for hours to get help from the army. The whole country is only about 71 miles wide at its absoute widest point. By the time the army arrived many of the attackers had already left after staying around long enough to kill hundreds one by one.

Trump was right to criticize the Iraeli leadership and especially its defense operations.

The border with Gaza was wide open allowing hundreds of Gazan teenagers armed with nothing more than knives to tag along in a supporting role to join in the killing and hostage taking.

The border with Gaza is only twenty five miles long but was virtually unguarded. It's supposedly legendary surveillance system there was not useful in stopping the continued surge across the border. Its airforce was of no help whatsoever in stopping the ground attack. An attack that went on for hours. No armed drones picking off the p.u. trucks loaded with guys with AK47s driving around unimpeded killing any pockets of Israelis that they came across.

Israeli victims report that when the Israeli army finallly showed up and they could come out of hiding in bushes and such, the military units didn't know what to to with them because they were on an assigned mission. No one in their immediate chain of command knew what to either. This despite the fact the media at that time were all reporting the hundreds of victims known to be in the area. Meanwhile Bedouin Arabs who live in Israel by choice showed up to help victims long before the army.

Both Netanyahu and the defense minister have spent their all their time playing political games with the equally culpable military leadership and each other for the past couple of years. The entire political and military leadership deserve to be removed for not only letting the twenty five mile wide border be undefended but taking hours to respond to mass killing only a few miles away from their defense headquaters. It is worth noting that the Bedouin tribesmen who live inside Israel by choice showed up to assist victims long before the military.

I am aware that such removal is not practical at this point but they certainly deserve it. And any critcism coming their way no matter how unartfully phrased is also weill deserved. If they can't even handle Hamas how will they ever deal with Hezbollah.

They can think of nothing better to do in response than flatten Gaza. They may start such an operation but they will never complete it. They don't have the manpower, the resources or even the will to accept the cost. The same bozos who let the stiuation get out of hand in the first place now promise to do something so drastic that they won't be able to accomplish that either.

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"President Biden, despite his many flaws, rose to the occasion and spoke clearly"

Well, that's something, I guess. We should all be grateful that President Biden spoke clearly.

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Biden ended his stirring defense of Israel by declaring the message that the Israel should employ a ceasefire now that the Hamas attack is over.

Who needs friends like that?

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author

I didn't hear him say that. I listened to the speech. He backed Israel 100% in its fight. Can you give me an exact quote with a link?

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Oct 13, 2023·edited Oct 13, 2023

What is happening is that the Biden administration is posting that Biden did call for a ceasefire in phone calls to world leaders including Israel right after his speech and then deleting the posts. Also they are leaking same to reporters and when questioned about it respond by simply saying they back Israel all the way.

Blinken is doing the same thing.

That is according to NPR, NBC and BBC. I didn't look any furhter.

However, you are correct. I just listened to his speech in its entirety. He did not call for a ceasefire in his speech.

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author

There was a statement from the State Department early on that was withdrawn that came from their Palestinian Office which called for a cease fire. I have no information that any tweets came from the White House, and I think they would have been seen and reported (withdrawn or not). The State Department said the Palestinian Office statement was not authorized.

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But not about Peace. Sad.

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author

After mass murder you don't get peace. Sorry.

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No? Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Dresden, etc etc etc

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That wasn't exactly peace - it was unconditional surrender which was then followed by peace.

There was a peace process before, I cannot be sure but I understand Stephen to be saying there will not be peace/peace process now without unconditional surrender/destruction of Hamas

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New York Post confirms that Bibi was warned by Egypt, yet he and they did nothing.

Seymour Hersh’s article today, which is based on an Israeli intelligence source, shares that intelligence blames Bibi and expect him to be gone within months.

I understand Trump is divisive and I’m no fan - but many time he speaks truth when it matters.

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author

These are apples and oranges. The apples are the attacks on Netanyahu. The oranges are the horrible remarks by Trump. Hersh has a lot to say with never any declared sources, so it is all smoke. Why would Netanyahu listen to Egypt if his own intelligence people were telling him otherwise? I am sure he respects the Egyptians, but not above Israel's military and intelligence. They, surely, got it wrong and the Egyptians were really onto something. But it is unreasonable to think Netanyahu would have done otherwise. In fact, as a practical matter if in fact he heard the Egyptian "warning" (such as it was), he would have asked his intel and military people for their opinion.

Right now trust in Netanyahu in Israel is very low, not surprisingly. It is too early to tell what will happen in six months time. Hersh is blabbering about consequences he can't even guess at.

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Is it inconceivable that Netanyahu had warning of a planned incursion that he thought might be a useful distraction from his political troubles, and help by allowing him to play the strong leader... but was totally unprepared for the scale of the incursion, and didn't attempt pre-emption?

Churchill and some in America may have had some foreknowledge of Pearl Harbour, but thought the attack would be politically useful.

And America probably covered up what it knew about USS Liberty, thinking it would be politically harmful.

I won't get into the Iraq dossier...

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Kristi O'Sullivan

Of course, the Isreali intelligence services blame Bibi for their failure. What else would you expect them to do?

If Mossad was so convinced that they knew what was coming but no one was listening to them, why were *they* all sitting at home, personally unprepared to come in and help expedite defense operations.

Half of the Israeli intel services are in Ukraine, all playing at being James Bond and relying on artificial intelligence to monitor the situation back home.

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author

There is a consensus that they saw everything and failed to act accordingly. Beyond that we have to wait for a full analysis which may come if they carry out a formal investigation, which they likely will.

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Makes one start to wonder if there's a Deep State in Israel as well as here.

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I suppose there is a deep state in every organized nation. In some countries, they are madated to be omnipresent. In others, the deep state just has more of society's confidence than the titular government.

In a country like America which was built to prevent such an occurence with watchkeepers in place to prevent a deep state, it has deteriorated into who will watch the watchkeepers. Apparently no one in authority in contemporary America.

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Times of Israel, 8 October:

"For years, Netanyahu propped up Hamas. Now it’s blown up in our faces.

"The premier’s policy of treating the terror group as a partner, at the expense of Abbas and Palestinian statehood, has resulted in wounds that will take Israel years to heal from.

"Most of the time, Israeli policy was to treat the Palestinian Authority as a burden and Hamas as an asset. Far-right MK Bezalel Smotrich, now the finance minister in the hardline government and leader of the Religious Zionism party, said so himself in 2015.

"According to various reports, Netanyahu made a similar point at a Likud faction meeting in early 2018, when he was quoted as saying that those who oppose a Palestinian state should support the transfer of funds to Gaza, because maintaining the separation between the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza would prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state."

The article elaborates in detail on the case that the Monster called Hamas was effectively nurtured by Netanyahu and his right wing allies as a counter to the PA (notably Smotrich who this week called Gaza residents 'animals' that should be treated as such, and called for completion of the Nakba begun in 1948).

If you create a Frankenstein for your own purposes, it may not always stick to them.

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author

I agree that Netanyahu coddled Hamas. So did all the others in the previous governments. I don't think the argument that they coddled Hamas to undermine the Palestinian Authority is credible. In fact, from what I understand, their worst fear was Hamas would take over the West Bank by winning elections, so Israel went along with Abbas in not having elections for that reason, as did Washington. There was no pressure on Abbas for elections. I see what Netanyahu said previously, but I think you rather twisted his meaning. In fact he did want to maintain the separation of Gaza from the PA exactly because of the fear that Hamas would win over the PA. I am not sure about the secondary argument that Netanyahu wanted to prevent a Palestinian state by his policy of encouraging Hamas to be happy in Gaza. In fact, I seriously doubt he ever said any things of that sort. The problem of a future Palestinian state is vexing for many reasons, not the least of which is the irredentist position of all Palestinian leaders.

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The irredentist position of ALL Palestinian leaders???

...Well, unfortunately the 'logic of war' means that those on either side who gain power from conflict, like the Israeli Right and the Palestinian irredentists, reinforce each other's position, and exclude moderates wanting peace and prosperity for all.

But really, do you consider, say, Hanan Ashrawi and Mustafa Barghouti 'irredentists'?

They have been ever more marginalized, like fellow Israeli peaceniks, by extremists on both sides who seek to benefit personally from conflict - Netanyahu chief among them - but please remember that before 1948 Palestinians and Lebanese were the most 'civilized' intellectual and cultural elite of the Arab world... before being literally brutalized in the new postcolonial order after WW2.

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Martin

Everybody is propping up Hamas. The U.N., the U.S., Europe, the Arab world, the Persians and assorted countries all trying to look good so no one would pay any negative attention to them. That includes all successive Israeli governments.

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Oct 12, 2023·edited Oct 12, 2023

After all the hoaxes the last few years I don’t believe a darn thing anymore if the corporate media is promoting it.

Funny how Ukraine is winding down and “poof” Israel has a crisis. 🤔.

I used to be a big supporter of the Israeli government but after this scam not anymore. It’s incredulous to believe that the country with the most surveillance/security had this happen.

This needs to be investigated and until then I’m not falling for it.

I’m not supporting a WEF agenda 2030, China puppet government of Israel anymore. They Covid vaxxed their people a number of times!!!! Hopefully the innocent people of Israel catch on and make changes.

China/Israel is luring the USA into ruin.

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author

I can't follow your argument and I don't know what you mean by "scam."

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Oct 12, 2023·edited Oct 12, 2023

i think the word scam here refers to either the biggest security breach in israels history, or the idea that the isreal gov't let this happen, to pursue a bigger and wider plan off of it... think 9-11... was that a security breach, or those in power turning a blind eye to allow for a bigger game plan to be put into operation? i tend to think the later in both examples.. i think the popular term for this is ''false flag''...

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author

Sorry, your are smoking something. There is no doubt they never took Hamas seriously and did not credit their main backer, Iran, or understand the depths of depravity that drives these people. That for sure is true. There was no "bigger game" or any other conspiracy theory here. Just failure. The price, as you know, is very high and very painful. As I have written in Asia Times and elsewhere, the problem was long standing --many decades of blindly following a bad policy. In fact, Iron Dome and border fences are examples of how you can put your faith in "solutions" that in fact are only stop gaps. Israel could have cleaned these guys out long ago but did not. In fact, they sent them money, provided electricity and oil, sent supplies (including humanitarian) and even provided good jobs for thousands of Gazans. This entire policy turned out to be not only ineffective but self-deceptive. Now they are reaping the harvest of a long-term failed policy, and it is a bitter harvest indeed.

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i am not smoking anything and i won't be as unfriendly to suggest the same of you.. put simply - israel has brought all this on itself.. it's really unfortunate and ironic that a country that came into being to help protect a culture, is willing to destroy another culture in the process..

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Your military stuff is indispensable.

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author

Thank you. There is so much going and and we need to learn as much as possible.

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agreed.. he is unfortunately not leadership material, but instead a narcissistic person, especially in this instance..

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Not likely. He is so fixated on appealing to his “people”. The same that stormed our capital. That he says also what he believes they want to hear. He is a corrupt criminal saying whatever he thinks will keep him in the running for power

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I did not ask for this garbage to be sent to me.

Blocked.

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Bye now.

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Israel is wise to not send in ground troops when it can pulverise

Gaza from the air...

That was one of the lessons the US learned from its war in Vietnam...

It was applied successfully in Iraq, and again in Yugoslavia...

Flatten the place before using ground forces...

It saves countless sacred Israeli lives, as it did sacred American lives...

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About the massacre the Invaders of occupied Palestinian territory committed...

How come every time the Palestinians erupt an atrocity is carried out

against Israelis; the atrocity overshadows everything; the Palestinians

are unanimously condemned; our hearts go out to the Israelis; and so on...

I mean, what sort of idiots are the Palestinians ? Havent they figured that

committing such dastardly deeds gets them massive bad publicity,

and makes everyone sympathetic with Israel as it has its Revenge ?

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author

go ask them

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More and more drumpf reminds me of a dumbfuck version of “The Kingfish” Huey Long.

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P1135809 is deeply devoted to Putin. You’d think the Repugs might get a whiff of deviancy they are so certain is present in everyone who doesn’t worship tRump.

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Denigrating people as repugnant or somehow less than human is the very thing that drove Hamas when they were raping and killing other human beings.

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Republican Mayoral Candidate Refuses to Condemn “Literal Nazis”

Gabrielle Hanson would not condemn a white nationalist group who showed up for her.

EVELYN HOCKSTEIN/FOR THE WASHINGTON POST/GETTY IMAGES

A Nationalist Socialist Movement member does a Nazi salute during the White Lives Matter protest in Shelbyville, Tennessee, in October 2017.

If you can’t differentiate between right and wrong, decency and sheer evil, you have no business passing judgement on ANYONE--and if your moral compass isn’t accurate enough to recognize the EVIL of the fascists running the RNC, than it is YOU who condones raping and killing by terrorists--and that makes you pretty damned repugnant.

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Robert De Niro Rips Donald Trump: He’s “Evil”

In a speech at TNR’s Stop Trump Summit, the actor also called the former president a “wannabe tough guy with no morals or ethics.”

So, High & Mighty Mick who has the nerve to suggest my contempt for traitors somehow makes me complicit with terrorists--how do you condone your support of sheer evil?

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Well, you go ahead and pretend Repugs aren’t traitors, fascists or haven’t declared an outright preference for Putin. They’ve been quite proud to be Deplorable. You want to enable and support people who seek to destroy this country, then you are no better than they are. Take your high horse, your loose logic, and stick it.

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