16 Comments
Jan 11Liked by Stephen Bryen

I don't understand Zelensky and the West.

When the war broke out everyone was in shock, even the Russians. However, the Western leaders decided to punish Russia as a whole and put sanction in place with the words "We will bring the Russian economy to its knees", which made most Russians support the government.

The came the senseless Ukrainian offensive against well prepared Russians.

Well and now, it's basically game over but Zelensky needs 500k more men, who will be killed just as easily as the others.

What for? Please explain to me what Ukraine is fighting for? The entire country will be in ruins and there will be no men left. If this is what freedom looks like I call BS on it.

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I assume your question is rhetorical. Maybe Zelensky can explain.

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Absolutely, it was not a question directed at you, but more so an expression of disbelief and anger. This war could have been avoided. But perhaps we can say that about most wars.

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5. There is no western air defense system that can shoot down Russia’s hypersonic missiles

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I think the jury is out on that question. From what I understand, the Kinzhal is hypersonic for most, but not all of its flight path and must slow down, reentering the heavier lower atmosphere (otherwise it would disintegrate). Therefore, in the terminal flight phase it is barely supersonic, but not hypersonic (around Mach 1.4). Under these conditions a good air defense system could hit it. My missile expert friends believe the Patriot can knock out the Kinzhal, although this depends on many factors, including competent operators and reasonable warning.

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LOL, sure they (your friends) do. I am sure they are all involved in the very lucrative MIC. Countries around the world are waking up to the fact that the U.S. has been selling dreams. Equipment so overpriced it borders on ridiculous and now on the battlefield it is a bust. We all know that in theory, the most advanced Patriot might shoot down a hypersonic missile but it has never done so on the battlefield. Ukraine lies about all it's AD results, it is laughable at this point. Maybe if the US /NATO would stop hiding behind Ukraine we will find out just where "the west" stands on technology

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My friends are not involved in any such thing.

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I read that they have a 10-15% chance of destroying the Kinzhal. At the rate things are going in the US that could be your chance of making it to your destination alive on a domestic air flight.

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I guess there is an absolute void of 'good air defense systems' in 404 today, if there was any evidence it would be all over the internet...crickets.

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Zelensky is running out of a lot of things - most crucially, time

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The Patriots have failed to shoot down Kinzhals since the first "clash," last March(ish). Yes they are sub-hypersonic prior to entering the lower atmosphere; however the roughly 20 seconds from acquisition to impact, and at a 70° angle at that, means the Patriots are over matched. Not to mention the decoys emitted by the Kinzhal as it falls onto target.

The only good Patriots do is pay the shareholders.

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My colleague, a world class missile defense expert (who has nothing to do professionally with Patriot) thinks the modern Patriot interceptors (that Ukraine has) can shoot down Kinzhals (which he thinks are overrated). Since the Patriots in Ukraine still survive after many Russian attacks, there is reason to think he may be right. My own view is that some Kinzhals get through, but they lack pin point accuracy, which to my way of thinking explains why the Patriots are still around. There are photos of some Kinzhal warheads recovered in Ukraine that are mostly intact, suggesting that the rest of the weapon was hit by "something." Alternatively, the Kinzhal could have failed (I don't know).

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Jan 11Liked by Stephen Bryen

Have we seen any Patriots being used since the footage last year where one appears to have been hit after the launchers sent of a dozen of missiles? I haven't seen much footage at all.

Asiatimes reported last year that the Patriot may have shot down a Kinzhal in the last 2 seconds of its flight, which still could have (like has) resulted in the destruction of the Patriot launcher.

It's very interesting thay there is very little footage about missile defence while there is so much footage about incoming missiles and front line warfare...

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I have not seen any footage of Patriots operating in Kiev or elsewhere. The reason a Kinzhal was shot down in the last few seconds has to do with the difficulty tracking Kinzhal (hypersonic weapons create a plasma envelope which makes them immune to radar interrogation). In their terminal phase Kinzhal has to slow down, meaning that in the last few thousand feet it is radar visible. But there may be more than that. Watching Patriot intercepts of Houthi tactical missiles (from Iran) it is clear they are hit only in the last few seconds, and the hits are visible to the naked eye. This means that Patriot is slow (despite its alleged range) and by the time the interceptor is launched the incoming missile is practically on top of its target. This was repeated so many times in the Saudi and UAE examples, that I think it is how the Patriot actually operates (for whatever reasons). That makes it a lousy system against ballistic missiles.

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The test will be when F 16s fight Russia fighter jets. We used to dominate with or Air Defense Systems, and our jets have been annoying for years to our enemies.

This may change when we go toe to toe with the Russian Air Force

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Not sure. The jets Ukraine is getting are quite old. The pilots are largely inexperienced on the aircraft. Training time is short.

I think the Russians will lure them in range of air defense systems like Pantsir and then shoot them out of the sky. The Russians have just upgraded Pantsir to make it more lethal.

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