Does anyone seriously expect Putin and the Russians to sit by passively as Ukraine spends two years to equip and train (largely at US taxpayer expense) a reconstituted half a million man army?
I think Putin learned his lesson when Ukraine and NATO used the Minsk 2 Agreement as a subterfuge to buy time to create a more robust Ukraine military force. He won't go down that road a second time!
thanks stephen.. good overview.. how many ukrainians have to die to satisfy usa-natos agenda here? i see the concept of any peace settlement is virtually impossible on the part of usa-ukraine.. trying to get ukrainian men who have voted on this with their feet - to return - it seems problematic at best..
I see the replacement of Resnikov by a Crimean Tatar negotiator with no Defense experience, along with the arrest of Kolomoisky, main backer of the Donbas war after 2014, as the beginning of an endgame.
Washington leaks critical of progress towards the Sea of Azov began on 17 August, along with Kiev's PR pushback about a breakthrough at Robotyne and the commitment of their best brigades, beginning in Western media the same day.
After two weeks of positive media reports of the fall of Robotyne each day, every day, since 17 August, but no progress toward Verbove, leaving vulnerable narrow flanks, Kyiv seems now to have got the message from Washington, first offered by Milley in November 2022: this is as good as it gets, agree a ceasefire and we can all talk about security guarantees and territory, as in March 2022 before Johnson arrived to scupper the first talks.
Dear Martin, I think you are correct in your assessment although I am not sure how willing, if at all, the Russians are in negotiating anything and certainly not a ceasefire. Russia no longer trusts Washington or NATO or Ukraine. If Washington came forward with a real deal, it might be a possibility, but I think because Zelensky is committed to no concessions to Russia or any negotiations with Putin, he clearly would need to be replaced.
I guess a formal ceasefire with, say, Indian monitors is not on any near horizon, but a coordinated Winter shift on both sides toward lower-intensity conflict might be.
Zelensky's recent talk of elections may be a significant part of the deeper dynamic.
They would give him and Kyiv an 'offramp': "I did my best to fight day and night for two years to save Ukraine but was betrayed by less committed people at home and abroad who got distracted by other agendas".
"I led a fight for survival against overwhelming force and odds, but was unable to achieve my clearly stated goals, so for the good of the country, I will hand over to a successor chosen by the Ukrainian people, to pursue a new course in line with our allies changing commitments."
Resnikov's replacement with Umerov, as Putin meets Erdogan, may be a first step along that path.
The war is about NATO as much as territory. The Russians want a neutral Ukraine without NATO. That red line was made perfectly clear by Putin in December, 2021. If there ever is a settlement, there will need to be some territorial adjustments and a defined border, but that may never happen.
I think its interesting that this new minister is a Crimean Tatar....I'll be interested to see his public comments when he gets his feet wet in this new position.
Does anyone seriously expect Putin and the Russians to sit by passively as Ukraine spends two years to equip and train (largely at US taxpayer expense) a reconstituted half a million man army?
I think Putin learned his lesson when Ukraine and NATO used the Minsk 2 Agreement as a subterfuge to buy time to create a more robust Ukraine military force. He won't go down that road a second time!
thanks stephen.. good overview.. how many ukrainians have to die to satisfy usa-natos agenda here? i see the concept of any peace settlement is virtually impossible on the part of usa-ukraine.. trying to get ukrainian men who have voted on this with their feet - to return - it seems problematic at best..
john mearsheimer has a good substack article up which is worth the read - https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/bound-to-lose
I see the replacement of Resnikov by a Crimean Tatar negotiator with no Defense experience, along with the arrest of Kolomoisky, main backer of the Donbas war after 2014, as the beginning of an endgame.
Washington leaks critical of progress towards the Sea of Azov began on 17 August, along with Kiev's PR pushback about a breakthrough at Robotyne and the commitment of their best brigades, beginning in Western media the same day.
After two weeks of positive media reports of the fall of Robotyne each day, every day, since 17 August, but no progress toward Verbove, leaving vulnerable narrow flanks, Kyiv seems now to have got the message from Washington, first offered by Milley in November 2022: this is as good as it gets, agree a ceasefire and we can all talk about security guarantees and territory, as in March 2022 before Johnson arrived to scupper the first talks.
Dear Martin, I think you are correct in your assessment although I am not sure how willing, if at all, the Russians are in negotiating anything and certainly not a ceasefire. Russia no longer trusts Washington or NATO or Ukraine. If Washington came forward with a real deal, it might be a possibility, but I think because Zelensky is committed to no concessions to Russia or any negotiations with Putin, he clearly would need to be replaced.
I guess a formal ceasefire with, say, Indian monitors is not on any near horizon, but a coordinated Winter shift on both sides toward lower-intensity conflict might be.
Zelensky's recent talk of elections may be a significant part of the deeper dynamic.
They would give him and Kyiv an 'offramp': "I did my best to fight day and night for two years to save Ukraine but was betrayed by less committed people at home and abroad who got distracted by other agendas".
"I led a fight for survival against overwhelming force and odds, but was unable to achieve my clearly stated goals, so for the good of the country, I will hand over to a successor chosen by the Ukrainian people, to pursue a new course in line with our allies changing commitments."
Resnikov's replacement with Umerov, as Putin meets Erdogan, may be a first step along that path.
The Russians are not going to sit still for a crappy standoff.
My geography of Ukraine is rather basic, not helped by media commentary, but aren't the current lines literally pretty entrenched?
Putin would like to get to the Oskil at Kupiansk, but isn't much of the front now defined by the topography and cultural demography?
Doesn't seem such a crappy outcome -what more does Russia hope to achieve?
The war is about NATO as much as territory. The Russians want a neutral Ukraine without NATO. That red line was made perfectly clear by Putin in December, 2021. If there ever is a settlement, there will need to be some territorial adjustments and a defined border, but that may never happen.
Thanks (again)
I thought Zelensky's recent remarks about an 'Israel' model were interesting.
Someone needs to tell the WSJ that the Russian defensive lines have not been breached. Unless they have been. Someone is not telling the truth.
I think its interesting that this new minister is a Crimean Tatar....I'll be interested to see his public comments when he gets his feet wet in this new position.