I do really hope that General Sergey "Armageddon" Surovikin is fully acquitted and cleared, otherwise Russia could be in serious deep troubles. Russia owns its current success and great defense lines in Urakine to him. If he falls, Russia may fall for good... at least in Ukraine!
I hope that this is still part of a great maskirovka, though neither BigSerge nor Simplicius believe in it.
Also, since there has been no significant offensive from Russia or Belarus yet, I am getting afraid that the huge maksirovka some of us were hoping for was just wishful thinking. I mean: the surprise effect is fading with time!
the problem with the nyt and wst - is they are fully owned by the west and truth rarely if ever creeps out of these publications, especially with regard to this war.. it is propaganda 24-7 from all these publications..
They are obviously relying on US intelligence for what they are writing. That is clear. Whether US intelligence is actually correct, or spinning stories, is not clear.
If the NYT or WST were credible, we'd know. Remember their explanations for the destruction of NorthStream. These newspapers are nothing but propaganda tools for the American military-industrial complex.
I also discovered in a commentary that the Russian army would have enormous losses in artillery. Where does this information come from? I didn't know that Russian artillery suffered from Ukrainian counter-battery fire or aerial bombardment - both manned and unmanned aircraft. Last time I checked, the Ukrainian army was out of its depth in these areas.
Putin is still fully in charge, but the daily losses of Russian forces particularly in artillery are significant. However Russia maintains vast nuclear superiority over the West something even the GOP tried to sweep under the rug. Putin probably has 3000 strategic warheads ready to go at a moments notice
(1) What was the objective of the coup plotters and how were they going to fulfill their objective?
(2) Couldn’t the government barricade the M-4 highway and all its exits and entrances?
(3) Even if the convoy reached Moscow, how would it navigate through the streets and where would it go?
(4) The mercenary army is estimated at about 6000; the Moscow police force has 50,000, and then there are the security forces and regular Army around Moscow. Is it conceivable that this small contingent of 6000 could prevail over the hundreds of thousands facing it?
(5) Being in a place does not mean controlling the place. Where has it been shown that Southern Command HQ operating personnel surrendered control to Prigozhin and that he was instituting any form of control. Did he give a single order to anyone?
(6) Would plotters follow an egomaniacal food caterer?
Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, makes more sense to me. At least she is going by what we do know, which is a preferred way to construct a life.
“Prigozhin’s rebellion wasn’t a bid for power or an attempt to overtake the Kremlin. It arose from a sense of desperation; Prigozhin was forced out of Ukraine and found himself unable to sustain Wagner the way he did before, while the state machinery was turning against him.”
it was called a coup by Putin and other Russian government spokespersons. You raise many cogent points. The only viable explanation is that Putin and company thought this was possibly a widespread conspiracy. Regarding Prigozhin, the Russians think he was plotting a major rebellion. Whether he was desperate or not, I can't say.
It is common in Russia for oligarchs to have their stuff taken from them. Oligarchs that resist are killed. Those that agree get to keep some of their stuff and go off to a nice retirement. Prigozyhyn is just another oligarch but with tanks so the negotiations were a little more complicated. That's all this is.
There's an old saying that I think about when there's talk of Putin losing power: "The devil you know is better than the devil you don't." Here's why: Putin is a very wealthy man so he's got a healthy dose of self-interest in avoiding the use of nuclear weapons; however, whoever follows him will have to prove themselves to the world as well as the military and they may wind up using a tactical nuke as the ultimate club. At that point, the cat's out of the bag and from them on countries that have them will use them and those who don't will get them. Also, even though the US might go scorched earth (no pun intended) against Russia, the rest of the world will remember Afghanistan and know that the US can't fight multiple wars at the same time. Finally, the current administration is going into an election year and will try to avoid war like the plague. Isn't it interesting how quickly things can escalate when it comes to world politics?
"The third data point is based on speculative statements by Russian military bloggers. They are saying that General Sergey Surovikin and his deputy Col. General Andrey Yudin, Surovikin's deputy, have been taken to Moscow's Lefortovo prison compound for "preliminary" interrogation. "
This seems pretty thin. Given the diversity of Russian Military Bloggers, a person could assert just about anything.
Time will tell. Put me in the camp of Prigozhin having been turned into a CIA asset - part of the Pentagon $6 billion account error. The tragedy here will be that Russia will come to the conclusion that the only way to achieve it's goals in Ukraine is to defeat Nato.
I agree it is currently speculative. However, I went with one of the better and more accurate milbloggers who generally has reported reliably (if there is any such thing in Russia)
Since my report. Moscow Times reports that Surovikin is under arrest. Most of the world's newspapers are now reporting the same, but Russia has not commented officially. Meanwhile the WSJ reports that the Russians are scrambling to get control over Wagner forces outside of Russia (in Syria, Africa etc)
Thanks for the update.
I do really hope that General Sergey "Armageddon" Surovikin is fully acquitted and cleared, otherwise Russia could be in serious deep troubles. Russia owns its current success and great defense lines in Urakine to him. If he falls, Russia may fall for good... at least in Ukraine!
I hope that this is still part of a great maskirovka, though neither BigSerge nor Simplicius believe in it.
Also, since there has been no significant offensive from Russia or Belarus yet, I am getting afraid that the huge maksirovka some of us were hoping for was just wishful thinking. I mean: the surprise effect is fading with time!
apparently it's bullshit.. use a translator... cheers..
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6070264?from=top_main_5
could be, we will see
I put it down to speculation by mil bloggers because that is what it was
but there is also his alleged complicity in the NYT, WST and elsewhere.
the problem with the nyt and wst - is they are fully owned by the west and truth rarely if ever creeps out of these publications, especially with regard to this war.. it is propaganda 24-7 from all these publications..
They are obviously relying on US intelligence for what they are writing. That is clear. Whether US intelligence is actually correct, or spinning stories, is not clear.
my contention is that these papers got taken over by the intel agencies many years ago.. it has only gotten worse in recent times..
If the NYT or WST were credible, we'd know. Remember their explanations for the destruction of NorthStream. These newspapers are nothing but propaganda tools for the American military-industrial complex.
I also discovered in a commentary that the Russian army would have enormous losses in artillery. Where does this information come from? I didn't know that Russian artillery suffered from Ukrainian counter-battery fire or aerial bombardment - both manned and unmanned aircraft. Last time I checked, the Ukrainian army was out of its depth in these areas.
Putin is still fully in charge, but the daily losses of Russian forces particularly in artillery are significant. However Russia maintains vast nuclear superiority over the West something even the GOP tried to sweep under the rug. Putin probably has 3000 strategic warheads ready to go at a moments notice
I am perplexed why this is called a coup.
(1) What was the objective of the coup plotters and how were they going to fulfill their objective?
(2) Couldn’t the government barricade the M-4 highway and all its exits and entrances?
(3) Even if the convoy reached Moscow, how would it navigate through the streets and where would it go?
(4) The mercenary army is estimated at about 6000; the Moscow police force has 50,000, and then there are the security forces and regular Army around Moscow. Is it conceivable that this small contingent of 6000 could prevail over the hundreds of thousands facing it?
(5) Being in a place does not mean controlling the place. Where has it been shown that Southern Command HQ operating personnel surrendered control to Prigozhin and that he was instituting any form of control. Did he give a single order to anyone?
(6) Would plotters follow an egomaniacal food caterer?
Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, makes more sense to me. At least she is going by what we do know, which is a preferred way to construct a life.
“Prigozhin’s rebellion wasn’t a bid for power or an attempt to overtake the Kremlin. It arose from a sense of desperation; Prigozhin was forced out of Ukraine and found himself unable to sustain Wagner the way he did before, while the state machinery was turning against him.”
it was called a coup by Putin and other Russian government spokespersons. You raise many cogent points. The only viable explanation is that Putin and company thought this was possibly a widespread conspiracy. Regarding Prigozhin, the Russians think he was plotting a major rebellion. Whether he was desperate or not, I can't say.
It is common in Russia for oligarchs to have their stuff taken from them. Oligarchs that resist are killed. Those that agree get to keep some of their stuff and go off to a nice retirement. Prigozyhyn is just another oligarch but with tanks so the negotiations were a little more complicated. That's all this is.
There's an old saying that I think about when there's talk of Putin losing power: "The devil you know is better than the devil you don't." Here's why: Putin is a very wealthy man so he's got a healthy dose of self-interest in avoiding the use of nuclear weapons; however, whoever follows him will have to prove themselves to the world as well as the military and they may wind up using a tactical nuke as the ultimate club. At that point, the cat's out of the bag and from them on countries that have them will use them and those who don't will get them. Also, even though the US might go scorched earth (no pun intended) against Russia, the rest of the world will remember Afghanistan and know that the US can't fight multiple wars at the same time. Finally, the current administration is going into an election year and will try to avoid war like the plague. Isn't it interesting how quickly things can escalate when it comes to world politics?
Great update. I think we are only beginning to see where this goes.
I still think Prigozhin is dead within six months, and Putin is out of power within 3 years... but it all could happen SO much faster.
"The third data point is based on speculative statements by Russian military bloggers. They are saying that General Sergey Surovikin and his deputy Col. General Andrey Yudin, Surovikin's deputy, have been taken to Moscow's Lefortovo prison compound for "preliminary" interrogation. "
This seems pretty thin. Given the diversity of Russian Military Bloggers, a person could assert just about anything.
Time will tell. Put me in the camp of Prigozhin having been turned into a CIA asset - part of the Pentagon $6 billion account error. The tragedy here will be that Russia will come to the conclusion that the only way to achieve it's goals in Ukraine is to defeat Nato.
I agree it is currently speculative. However, I went with one of the better and more accurate milbloggers who generally has reported reliably (if there is any such thing in Russia)
Since my report. Moscow Times reports that Surovikin is under arrest. Most of the world's newspapers are now reporting the same, but Russia has not commented officially. Meanwhile the WSJ reports that the Russians are scrambling to get control over Wagner forces outside of Russia (in Syria, Africa etc)