Personally, I think the Russians might choose to turn east away from the Suwalki gap. It would be a short run of less than a couple hours down to the undefended capital Lithuania, Vilnius. That Vilnius, home of the recent NATO conference.
Twenty thousand front line, well equipped Russian troops coming out Kaliningrad and twenty thousand Wagner group/Belarusan special forces coming towards the capital from the other side. Heading towards a capital defened by a couple of hundred light infantry.
Top it off with the Russian Baltic fleet sending a couple of heavy ships into the totally undefended Klaipeda harbor which is Lithuania's only port, so they can set up shop there.
The only way NATO would have of dealing with that is to bomb the Russians into non existence. In other words. NATO would have to inflict massive damages on a European country which is also a NATO member. A rather stupid one in my opinion but still a member all the same.
It is worth mentioning that Kaliningrad is home to a least a few dozen tactical nukes and maybe even a couple of big boys. The Baltic fleet going in to Klaipeda would be assumed to have one or two on board as well. That is what they were designed for after all.
The Suwalki gap itself is defended by a battalion from the Tennesee national guard. Because of the geography and road system it would not be so easy for the Russians to join the forces and head west towards Poland. The difficulties there are supposed to give the Poles time to send in their army to back up the Tennessee National guard. However, the Polish army is currently rather busy on the other side of the country.
But the roads are all built to take those forces straight down toward the capital. I have driven them. I know what it would it would take and where they would set up their last forward operating base on the move to Vilnius. Right outside my apartment window.
A lot of food for thought. I think it boils down to who is the enemy. From Russia's historical perspective it would be Poland. They can do Vilnius anytime. I agree Poland is a much more difficult proposition. There is, however, increasing evidence that the Poles and others (US? Germany?) are thinking of targeting Kaliningrad, which will touch off a big war.
I'm sure that is what the Russian leadership is thinking. It's Poland that is the problem.
But I still look at...hey, they can take an entire European country on the cheap. A NATO member at that. NATO's only response would be for it to attack a European country. You know, turn Vilnius into Bakhmut just to get those pesky Russians out. Take a chance on cooking off a nuke in Klaipeda harbor. Or even an i.c.b.m. stored in Kaliningrad turning the Baltic Sea into the Sea of Despond.
I mean Lithuania is volunteering itself for the process by claiming they are all in on joining Poland in sending troops along with Poland into western Ukraine to help fight the Russians. They are all gung ho for it around here.
I think some European countries who are members of NATO might start taking a dim view of all the stuff that is going on that clearly might end up involving them.
thanks... a better question - is poland stupid enough to do anything like this? and i think i know the answer... hopefully usa has them on a short leash, like the good puppy they are for the usa..
I don't take sides other than to be pro-American, and I don't repeat any Russian propaganda. I have more than 50 years experience in defense and on Capitol Hill.. I am a very careful analyst and researcher. You don't have to like my assessments but you cross the line when you make nonsensical allegations which you have no prospect of ever being able to support. Here is my advice: if you don't like Weapons and Strategy, don't read it.
Just one remark/question. You mention that "systems such as the German Leopard tank and the American Abrams infantry fighting vehicle, were unsuccessful", however, as far as I know, the American Abrams tanks have not been deployed in Ukraine yet (and maybe they never will, to avoid embarrassment!). Did you mean the American Bradley IFV, maybe?
lots of guessing around Prigozhin and Surovkin, all we know is there ongoing investigations and Surovkin might be investigated (not to say he's guilty of any collusion). Prigozhin's termination as a "head" of Wagner is happening (to be clear he's been more of a "financial" manager not a military lead there)
I continue to think that the alleged Prigozhin riot and the displacements of PMC Wagner and the alleged "disappearance" of General Surovikin are acts of a very extensive military operation, very carefully planned whose scope, I am sure, are not yet known to the intelligence services of the "west"
Dear Stephen, thanks you for your insightful posts. I do have a question. Basically it is why hasn't Russia finished the SMO? Most would reply that they are happy grinding down the Ukrainian/NATO arms. But that is actually not a way to win a war, unless you want it to go on for years and years. How about a couple of hundred Tupolev Tu-95s and flatten Kiev, Lviv? In other words act a bit more like the US in Iraq. All the reasons against this (don't want to kill friendly pro Russians) is too bad. This has already gone on too long. Next step, Abrams and F16s to deal with?
Excellent analysis. I agree on the fates of Prigozhin and Surovikin - 💀
What are your thoughts on Turkey seeming to turn against the Russians at the NATO summit? Is Turkey just playing nice with the US to get some much-needed cash in the short-term (or ro preserve their gas pipeline from destruction) knowing that Russia now has the upper hand in Ukraine and will most likely emerge victorious?
The best I can figure is that Turkey needs the US to bail out its failing economic situation. However, Erdogan may have trashed himself with the Russians.
Personally, I think the Russians might choose to turn east away from the Suwalki gap. It would be a short run of less than a couple hours down to the undefended capital Lithuania, Vilnius. That Vilnius, home of the recent NATO conference.
Twenty thousand front line, well equipped Russian troops coming out Kaliningrad and twenty thousand Wagner group/Belarusan special forces coming towards the capital from the other side. Heading towards a capital defened by a couple of hundred light infantry.
Top it off with the Russian Baltic fleet sending a couple of heavy ships into the totally undefended Klaipeda harbor which is Lithuania's only port, so they can set up shop there.
The only way NATO would have of dealing with that is to bomb the Russians into non existence. In other words. NATO would have to inflict massive damages on a European country which is also a NATO member. A rather stupid one in my opinion but still a member all the same.
It is worth mentioning that Kaliningrad is home to a least a few dozen tactical nukes and maybe even a couple of big boys. The Baltic fleet going in to Klaipeda would be assumed to have one or two on board as well. That is what they were designed for after all.
The Suwalki gap itself is defended by a battalion from the Tennesee national guard. Because of the geography and road system it would not be so easy for the Russians to join the forces and head west towards Poland. The difficulties there are supposed to give the Poles time to send in their army to back up the Tennessee National guard. However, the Polish army is currently rather busy on the other side of the country.
But the roads are all built to take those forces straight down toward the capital. I have driven them. I know what it would it would take and where they would set up their last forward operating base on the move to Vilnius. Right outside my apartment window.
A lot of food for thought. I think it boils down to who is the enemy. From Russia's historical perspective it would be Poland. They can do Vilnius anytime. I agree Poland is a much more difficult proposition. There is, however, increasing evidence that the Poles and others (US? Germany?) are thinking of targeting Kaliningrad, which will touch off a big war.
I'm sure that is what the Russian leadership is thinking. It's Poland that is the problem.
But I still look at...hey, they can take an entire European country on the cheap. A NATO member at that. NATO's only response would be for it to attack a European country. You know, turn Vilnius into Bakhmut just to get those pesky Russians out. Take a chance on cooking off a nuke in Klaipeda harbor. Or even an i.c.b.m. stored in Kaliningrad turning the Baltic Sea into the Sea of Despond.
I mean Lithuania is volunteering itself for the process by claiming they are all in on joining Poland in sending troops along with Poland into western Ukraine to help fight the Russians. They are all gung ho for it around here.
I think some European countries who are members of NATO might start taking a dim view of all the stuff that is going on that clearly might end up involving them.
The Baltics work to their advantage because the Swedes and the Finns will use their airpower. That won't be of any value in Poland.
thanks... a better question - is poland stupid enough to do anything like this? and i think i know the answer... hopefully usa has them on a short leash, like the good puppy they are for the usa..
agree
A lot of hearsay, with American sources that are more than questionable. That's what we call writing for nothing.
Not really. Most of the sources are from Russia and include videos.
making nonsensical comments is less than impressive
Dear Tony
I don't take sides other than to be pro-American, and I don't repeat any Russian propaganda. I have more than 50 years experience in defense and on Capitol Hill.. I am a very careful analyst and researcher. You don't have to like my assessments but you cross the line when you make nonsensical allegations which you have no prospect of ever being able to support. Here is my advice: if you don't like Weapons and Strategy, don't read it.
Thanks. I always appreciate views from different angles.
Thanks for the post, very informative!
Just one remark/question. You mention that "systems such as the German Leopard tank and the American Abrams infantry fighting vehicle, were unsuccessful", however, as far as I know, the American Abrams tanks have not been deployed in Ukraine yet (and maybe they never will, to avoid embarrassment!). Did you mean the American Bradley IFV, maybe?
It was an error. The IFVs (infantry fighting vehicles) are Bradleys'. I will fix that in the article.
Thank you
lots of guessing around Prigozhin and Surovkin, all we know is there ongoing investigations and Surovkin might be investigated (not to say he's guilty of any collusion). Prigozhin's termination as a "head" of Wagner is happening (to be clear he's been more of a "financial" manager not a military lead there)
In my view they are both history.
I continue to think that the alleged Prigozhin riot and the displacements of PMC Wagner and the alleged "disappearance" of General Surovikin are acts of a very extensive military operation, very carefully planned whose scope, I am sure, are not yet known to the intelligence services of the "west"
Dear Stephen, thanks you for your insightful posts. I do have a question. Basically it is why hasn't Russia finished the SMO? Most would reply that they are happy grinding down the Ukrainian/NATO arms. But that is actually not a way to win a war, unless you want it to go on for years and years. How about a couple of hundred Tupolev Tu-95s and flatten Kiev, Lviv? In other words act a bit more like the US in Iraq. All the reasons against this (don't want to kill friendly pro Russians) is too bad. This has already gone on too long. Next step, Abrams and F16s to deal with?
Excellent analysis. I agree on the fates of Prigozhin and Surovikin - 💀
What are your thoughts on Turkey seeming to turn against the Russians at the NATO summit? Is Turkey just playing nice with the US to get some much-needed cash in the short-term (or ro preserve their gas pipeline from destruction) knowing that Russia now has the upper hand in Ukraine and will most likely emerge victorious?
The best I can figure is that Turkey needs the US to bail out its failing economic situation. However, Erdogan may have trashed himself with the Russians.
My recommendation to you is not to read my Substack offering. That will allow you time to wallow in your own assumptions.