It's clear Ukraine won't win this. Ukraine doesn't have enough tubes and doesn't have enough ammunition, no air defence and no air forced. NATO has nothing to give anymore and due to de-industrialization it can't produce enough of anything.
The West truly believed a few sanctions will crush the Russian economy and the will to fight, but people who know a bit of history know that Russia doesn't lose easily and has the stomach to suffer (tremendously).
One wonders when Western politicians will finally realize the fact that Russia won't lose this.
At one point, the West will find out how many people have died and the shock will be immense. So many dead, for what exactly?
Very interesting article. I'm not sure that the US has an Otto Skorzeny for an operation like this and, more importantly, a weak adversary like the Germans had in the Italians. Additionally, the Russians believe the US blew up Nord Stream and something like foiling a US rescue operation might be their best revenge (remember the disastrous and embarrassing Iranian hostage rescue attempt?) Nevertheless, the US is desperate for a foreign policy win and might try anything at this point.
For Ukraine and Zelensky, maybe he will require rescuing down the line. But with the current rate of movement on the ground (single digit sq km per day, maybe a little more at the peaks), it seems early to be talking about it. If the AFU internally decides it's had enough, that's another matter.
It's hardly a comparison: Mussolini personified the Italian Fascist state that he founded in 1922 and was held captive.
Zelensky is just the latest in a string of mediocre Ukrainian presidents since 1991 and with or without him, and with or without war, Ukraine will remain a mess.
Poland and Ukraine had similar sized economies in 1991 but today Poland's economy is three times large than Ukraine's. It won't matter if Zelensky stays or is replaced and a plane ticket to his mansion in Palm Beach, FL will be all the rescue operation needed.
The Western press barely covered a call from Transnistiria last Wednesday for Russian help with what they see as coordinated economic blockade by EU candidate Moldova, and Ukraine which closed their border after February 2022.
Some thought the Transnistrian Supreme Council would ask to join the Russian Federation, but after two years the military situation there has been remarkably stable.
With 50% of the population of half a million holding Russian passports, after breaking with Moldova West of the Dnieper in 1990-2 over attempts from Chisinau to suppress the Russian language, the situation there has significant parallels with the Donbas. Zelensky claimed in February 2023 that Putin was trying to organize a coup in Chisinau, using Wagner, allegations repeated by Washington but denied by Russia.
Given the strategic location on the Southeastern flank, and Russian bases and troops there for three decades, surely the lack of military activity over the last two years says something about limited Russian war aims, and also about Washington's resistance to escalating or broadening the conflict . Zelensky and Budanov must surely have considered more deadly provocations than claims about Russian plans for Moldova, which echo their Ukraine narrative, and might seem to bolster their and Baltic hawks' alarmist 'Domino Theory' - if true.
The newly revived 'Transnistria Question' may seem tangential to the Mussolini Question - but to me it provides a rarely mentioned but significant illustration of the (here only slightly) wider geopolitical questions around Ukraine that the current Troika in Kiev (and allied hawks elsewhere) are constantly trying to leverage to their ever-slipping advantage.
that's an interesting possibility...Zelensky is definitely quickly loosing support at home (including in his Servant of the People party, especially due to unpopular total mobilization). Zaluzhniy is supported by Poroshenko, Klichko and the Nazi elements such as Azov, Praviy Sector. Zaluzhniy seem to be popular, mainly due to his media image. The word is that he's not necessarily the most talented or decisive commander. Not sure he would negotiate, but he could blame all failures on Zelensky political meddling, which is a popular notion in the Ukranian army. That would give him some space to cut losses in Donbass and save face
Talking of the Waffen-SS, i guess one main reason Budanov's elite guard, the Azov Brigade, were sent to Avdiivka, was to try and police the retreat and discourage desertion.
Ukrainian media have been full of stories of Russian units executing frontline deserters, but these seem to be mainly fictional. Such fictions often mirror a reality closer to home.
Budanov did, after all, recently shoot down near Belgorod a group of soldiers who surrendered at Mariupol, before they could be exchanged for captive Russians.
Z and his wife can get on a train West any time she likes, leaving Poroshenko, Zaluzhny and Klitshko to get on with the obvious deal with Putin. He 'doesn't need a ride' from Uncle Sam, and Russian movement West frim Avdiivka is still slow and incremental, despite unprepared Ukrainian fallback positions there (because 'defeat was not an option' till it was reality - which Z doesn't do, only reality TV). And the AFU shows no sign of imminent collapse, conducting several small counter-attacks in the South and East in the last few days They have several good defensive erscarpements south from Kupiansk to Vuhledar, and I can't see Russia getting anywhere near the Dnieper from the East.
Z's always only been an actor, and his fall will be dramatic, but only in the sense of stage management, not an SAS raid on a mountain prison (there are no mountains in Ukraine - I was in the beautiful bare altopiano of Campo Imperiale last year... the Italians call it Little Tibet, with good reason).
"How can it get away with an intervention that most wouldn't object to in Europe or the United States?" ???? Is this an error? I think most would most certainly object to an intervention. Or are you referring specifically to an operation to "Save Zelensky"?
Zelensky has to step aside ( due to his position on Russa.
Another general needs to step up and negotiate a cease fire and stay in place forces.
Ukraine will have to stay neutral, no NATO membership. Some trading with Russia to rebuild country.
Russia wants a neutral country between it and NATO /western country.
A lot of dying for what should have happened at beginning.
Excellent article!
It's clear Ukraine won't win this. Ukraine doesn't have enough tubes and doesn't have enough ammunition, no air defence and no air forced. NATO has nothing to give anymore and due to de-industrialization it can't produce enough of anything.
The West truly believed a few sanctions will crush the Russian economy and the will to fight, but people who know a bit of history know that Russia doesn't lose easily and has the stomach to suffer (tremendously).
One wonders when Western politicians will finally realize the fact that Russia won't lose this.
At one point, the West will find out how many people have died and the shock will be immense. So many dead, for what exactly?
Very interesting article. I'm not sure that the US has an Otto Skorzeny for an operation like this and, more importantly, a weak adversary like the Germans had in the Italians. Additionally, the Russians believe the US blew up Nord Stream and something like foiling a US rescue operation might be their best revenge (remember the disastrous and embarrassing Iranian hostage rescue attempt?) Nevertheless, the US is desperate for a foreign policy win and might try anything at this point.
Interesting history!
For Ukraine and Zelensky, maybe he will require rescuing down the line. But with the current rate of movement on the ground (single digit sq km per day, maybe a little more at the peaks), it seems early to be talking about it. If the AFU internally decides it's had enough, that's another matter.
It's hardly a comparison: Mussolini personified the Italian Fascist state that he founded in 1922 and was held captive.
Zelensky is just the latest in a string of mediocre Ukrainian presidents since 1991 and with or without him, and with or without war, Ukraine will remain a mess.
Poland and Ukraine had similar sized economies in 1991 but today Poland's economy is three times large than Ukraine's. It won't matter if Zelensky stays or is replaced and a plane ticket to his mansion in Palm Beach, FL will be all the rescue operation needed.
Why go though all that? How did Ghani get out of Afghanistan?
The Western press barely covered a call from Transnistiria last Wednesday for Russian help with what they see as coordinated economic blockade by EU candidate Moldova, and Ukraine which closed their border after February 2022.
Some thought the Transnistrian Supreme Council would ask to join the Russian Federation, but after two years the military situation there has been remarkably stable.
With 50% of the population of half a million holding Russian passports, after breaking with Moldova West of the Dnieper in 1990-2 over attempts from Chisinau to suppress the Russian language, the situation there has significant parallels with the Donbas. Zelensky claimed in February 2023 that Putin was trying to organize a coup in Chisinau, using Wagner, allegations repeated by Washington but denied by Russia.
Given the strategic location on the Southeastern flank, and Russian bases and troops there for three decades, surely the lack of military activity over the last two years says something about limited Russian war aims, and also about Washington's resistance to escalating or broadening the conflict . Zelensky and Budanov must surely have considered more deadly provocations than claims about Russian plans for Moldova, which echo their Ukraine narrative, and might seem to bolster their and Baltic hawks' alarmist 'Domino Theory' - if true.
The newly revived 'Transnistria Question' may seem tangential to the Mussolini Question - but to me it provides a rarely mentioned but significant illustration of the (here only slightly) wider geopolitical questions around Ukraine that the current Troika in Kiev (and allied hawks elsewhere) are constantly trying to leverage to their ever-slipping advantage.
that's an interesting possibility...Zelensky is definitely quickly loosing support at home (including in his Servant of the People party, especially due to unpopular total mobilization). Zaluzhniy is supported by Poroshenko, Klichko and the Nazi elements such as Azov, Praviy Sector. Zaluzhniy seem to be popular, mainly due to his media image. The word is that he's not necessarily the most talented or decisive commander. Not sure he would negotiate, but he could blame all failures on Zelensky political meddling, which is a popular notion in the Ukranian army. That would give him some space to cut losses in Donbass and save face
Stephen, we have our disagreements (about neutralsim), but if a rescue attempt eventuates, I shall ever after refer to you as the Prophet Bryen.
Talking of the Waffen-SS, i guess one main reason Budanov's elite guard, the Azov Brigade, were sent to Avdiivka, was to try and police the retreat and discourage desertion.
Ukrainian media have been full of stories of Russian units executing frontline deserters, but these seem to be mainly fictional. Such fictions often mirror a reality closer to home.
Budanov did, after all, recently shoot down near Belgorod a group of soldiers who surrendered at Mariupol, before they could be exchanged for captive Russians.
Z and his wife can get on a train West any time she likes, leaving Poroshenko, Zaluzhny and Klitshko to get on with the obvious deal with Putin. He 'doesn't need a ride' from Uncle Sam, and Russian movement West frim Avdiivka is still slow and incremental, despite unprepared Ukrainian fallback positions there (because 'defeat was not an option' till it was reality - which Z doesn't do, only reality TV). And the AFU shows no sign of imminent collapse, conducting several small counter-attacks in the South and East in the last few days They have several good defensive erscarpements south from Kupiansk to Vuhledar, and I can't see Russia getting anywhere near the Dnieper from the East.
Z's always only been an actor, and his fall will be dramatic, but only in the sense of stage management, not an SAS raid on a mountain prison (there are no mountains in Ukraine - I was in the beautiful bare altopiano of Campo Imperiale last year... the Italians call it Little Tibet, with good reason).
"How can it get away with an intervention that most wouldn't object to in Europe or the United States?" ???? Is this an error? I think most would most certainly object to an intervention. Or are you referring specifically to an operation to "Save Zelensky"?