Putin has outlined his objective and would, in my view, be open to a settlement. In a longer war, he will not have control of the outcome but will be forced into harsh measures. I think he wants to avoid doing that if he can. That is my opinion.
That’s plausible, but “Lucy has pulled the football from under Charley Brown” before. Back in 2022 Putin had a deal with Ukraine and the West pressured Ukraine to reneg. And we now know from Merkel that Minsk accords were a trick to bide time. So i would think a deal would have strict security guarantees on what Ukraine can and cannot do, and also for NATO.
Plausible. However, there is another possibility: Ukraine unconditionally surrenders. It seems that is just as likely as Ukraine getting to the negotiating table.
Time is on Russia’s side. Ukraine is running out of population to fight with, western wonder weapons haven’t turned the tide, the Atlanticist powers are having funding fatigue and Russia’s military grows stronger every day. There’s no motivation for Russia to negotiate. They just have to wait for the collapse to come.
I understand your point but I think there is motivation for Russia, namely to stabilize Europe (if that can be achieved) through negotiations, reopen trade channels and restore political and diplomatic relationships. While these are not as immediately tangible as territory, they are nonetheless important.
Naive Stephen. My sense is that Russia is finished with the West and turns its eyes East and South, away from a degenerate West that's withering to irrelevance on every front.
Odessa is a full Russian city (check the history) there are no 62 % ukrainians there like Kiev which was first capital of Russia even before Moscow exists or Petersburg, same for Kharkov and a few others except Llov which may go to Poland if Poland accepts them what I really doubt. Ukraine is a fake country like Belgium, of course Belgium is rich nobody will start a war there.Western 'ukraine' is not Ukraine it is a former Polish Lithuania and nazi hitler collaborators place as we saw recently in Ottawa, nobody can hide it now that the Junta in Kiev is not legitimate. There will only be peace after: 1) total surrender 2) regime change including new elections everywhere but all political parties must be allowed, no oligarch money buying votes 3) total denazification, no more azov and co. Russian language, free press, free religious cults allowed. 4) no nato or EU ever 5) a little army with only police forces, no nato weapons.
Neocons who are fully responsible for the conflict and 550k ukies kia + 600k mia-pow-wia and EU+ NATO must pay trillions in war reparations and reconstruction to both Russia an mini Ukraine failed state, neocons and EU Nato leaders must face Nuremberg 2.0 war criminal special tribunal 6) Romanians and Hungarians fake ukrainians may be allowed to reunify with their real country, language etc.. if they wish so of course, it is clear that nothing of this will ever happen of course because it would be the biggest humiliation ever seen for the bankrupted western mafia (EU + Nato). American forces must leave Europe, Asia, MEA etc..simply defend their own land which has enough border problems and soon civil war? Western brenton Woods bankrupted system must go with hundreds of trillions of fiat debts based on zero value papers, and 2.4 quadrillions of derivative.
95 % of US bases must close, they will not have money left anyway to keep them open.
US UKingdom EU and co must think about cooperation in the future and stop all their wars, wars they always lose in fact.
I agree, I don’t see Russia as a warmonger. They’d come to the negotiation table if the conditions were right. Unfortunately, the globalists are quite willing to fight to the last Ukrainian.
The British defense minister floated that idea last week in the UK. It was roundly condemned and the PM had to walk it back with a ridiculous excuse. In today's world the UK works 100% for Washington.
Mr. Stephen, you are repeating the narratives of the dictator Putin, whose troops have invaded our lands and are killing and raping our women and children. Your articles are a good help for Putin’s propaganda. God is your judge. Greetings from Ukraine.
All due respect Stephen: I think you're wrong about Putin wanting a settlement that falls short of his originally stated war aims. Those aims include militarily enforced Ukrainian neutrality; and disarmament of Ukraine along with Regime Change in Kiev. Key Russian officials have recently stated: Succumb to Russian war aims or Ukraine will be obliterated from any semblance of a sovereign nation.
Having lost at least 120,000 casualties to date, it would be very difficult to freeze the status quo, which is the best terms that could possibly be hoped for. At a large cost Russia has demolished the Ukrainian economy and chewed up at least three Ukrainian armies. Soon enough Russia can press a large offensive against greatly diminished resistance.
It's hard to imagine that Kiev would accept Russian terms. All indications are that Ukraine is on a suicidal path and rather die than succumb.
From the little I know, American policy in Eastern Europe has been increasingly driven by Nuland, since she became Cheney's advisor in 2003.
Her role in the 2014 regime change which provoked Moscow's first partial invasion is well known, and after Obama and Trump were replaced by an old cold warrior, she seems to have engineered an escalation, and been rewarded by promotion to No. 2 at State.
But what did she really think would happen in Ukraine, 'The Kaganate of Nulandia', under her and Biden's rule? Did she think, does she still think, that the war is 'winnable', or does she understand 'winning' in broader geostrategic terms, with the destruction of Ukraine 'a price worth paying' to accomplish wider goals?
In either case, where does the Nuland Doctrine leave Old Joe?
He surely can't in an election year sell a cynical 'neocon' geostrategic excuse for disaster in Ukraine after all the rhetoric of Freedom and Democracy, and the endlessly trumpeted great progress of plucky little Ukraine against evil Goliath Putin, with American help?
He can't go through 2024 flogging that dead horse as Ukraine itself collapses, perhaps a bit more slowly (past the US election) as it further depletes American resources from money to materiel?
But he's in a bind.
How does he sell some form of capitulation to get the problem out of the way before November 24?
How does he sell the destruction of Ukraine, the huge American and global costs of the war, as having been a better option than implementing Minsk II, which apart from saving insane costs to America, Europe, Africa and elsewhere (but ironically not to the main new enemy China, also now emboldened over Taiwan) would have been a far, far better result for Ukraine than any foreseeable new settlement?
"Biden" sells a Ukraine defeat just the way he's sold an Afghan withdrawal: Shove Ukraine down the Memory Hole ... along side Iraq, Vietnam, Korea... it's the American Way, man. The Corporate MSM is expert at maneuvering the Memory Hole.
Given Russias war crimes and war of annihilation I have to agree with Chodorosky that there will never be any negotiations. This will go to the bitter end and we will see significant escalation of losses on both sides particularly once ATACs, F-16 and Gripens appear on the battle field. Russia will have Iranian ballistic missiles. Ukraine will have longer range drones hitting Russian bomber bases. And the GOP is sinking the US defense budget and Ukraine aid. Not good.
Why do you mention “Russias war crimes”, as if Ukraine hasn’t committed war crimes? Ukraine has committed war crimes both during the SMO and prior, including ongoing shelling of Russian-speaking formerly Ukrainian citizens? Don’t act as if Ukraine is an “innocent victim” who is a paragon of virtue.
You're trippin' Bill. 1) ATACs, F-16 and Gripens won't appear in Ukraine anytime soon (if ever); and b) nowhere near the number required;c) without soldiers to operate these weapons and massive maintenance support, such complex weaponry can't be very effective beyond a few tactical gains. One thing Ukraine doesn't have is quality reservists.
So either NATO forces step into the fray or the war will be fought by women and teenage boys. It's over Bill.
If only there was an agreed upon solution by both sides of the conflict. Say somewhere near the start of the SMO, maybe March 2022.
Oh wait......
Why would Russia concede to negotiations when they are inexorably defeating Ukraine? Ukraine would have to offer very good terms.
Putin has outlined his objective and would, in my view, be open to a settlement. In a longer war, he will not have control of the outcome but will be forced into harsh measures. I think he wants to avoid doing that if he can. That is my opinion.
That’s plausible, but “Lucy has pulled the football from under Charley Brown” before. Back in 2022 Putin had a deal with Ukraine and the West pressured Ukraine to reneg. And we now know from Merkel that Minsk accords were a trick to bide time. So i would think a deal would have strict security guarantees on what Ukraine can and cannot do, and also for NATO.
I anticipate a very difficult negotiation process if it happens.
Ukraine is increasingly running out options to negotiate anything.
I agree.
Plausible. However, there is another possibility: Ukraine unconditionally surrenders. It seems that is just as likely as Ukraine getting to the negotiating table.
Time is on Russia’s side. Ukraine is running out of population to fight with, western wonder weapons haven’t turned the tide, the Atlanticist powers are having funding fatigue and Russia’s military grows stronger every day. There’s no motivation for Russia to negotiate. They just have to wait for the collapse to come.
I understand your point but I think there is motivation for Russia, namely to stabilize Europe (if that can be achieved) through negotiations, reopen trade channels and restore political and diplomatic relationships. While these are not as immediately tangible as territory, they are nonetheless important.
Naive Stephen. My sense is that Russia is finished with the West and turns its eyes East and South, away from a degenerate West that's withering to irrelevance on every front.
Odessa is a full Russian city (check the history) there are no 62 % ukrainians there like Kiev which was first capital of Russia even before Moscow exists or Petersburg, same for Kharkov and a few others except Llov which may go to Poland if Poland accepts them what I really doubt. Ukraine is a fake country like Belgium, of course Belgium is rich nobody will start a war there.Western 'ukraine' is not Ukraine it is a former Polish Lithuania and nazi hitler collaborators place as we saw recently in Ottawa, nobody can hide it now that the Junta in Kiev is not legitimate. There will only be peace after: 1) total surrender 2) regime change including new elections everywhere but all political parties must be allowed, no oligarch money buying votes 3) total denazification, no more azov and co. Russian language, free press, free religious cults allowed. 4) no nato or EU ever 5) a little army with only police forces, no nato weapons.
Neocons who are fully responsible for the conflict and 550k ukies kia + 600k mia-pow-wia and EU+ NATO must pay trillions in war reparations and reconstruction to both Russia an mini Ukraine failed state, neocons and EU Nato leaders must face Nuremberg 2.0 war criminal special tribunal 6) Romanians and Hungarians fake ukrainians may be allowed to reunify with their real country, language etc.. if they wish so of course, it is clear that nothing of this will ever happen of course because it would be the biggest humiliation ever seen for the bankrupted western mafia (EU + Nato). American forces must leave Europe, Asia, MEA etc..simply defend their own land which has enough border problems and soon civil war? Western brenton Woods bankrupted system must go with hundreds of trillions of fiat debts based on zero value papers, and 2.4 quadrillions of derivative.
95 % of US bases must close, they will not have money left anyway to keep them open.
US UKingdom EU and co must think about cooperation in the future and stop all their wars, wars they always lose in fact.
I agree, I don’t see Russia as a warmonger. They’d come to the negotiation table if the conditions were right. Unfortunately, the globalists are quite willing to fight to the last Ukrainian.
And no few Americans if they can figure a way to send them
The British defense minister floated that idea last week in the UK. It was roundly condemned and the PM had to walk it back with a ridiculous excuse. In today's world the UK works 100% for Washington.
I think we will know by next summer.
Mr. Stephen, you are repeating the narratives of the dictator Putin, whose troops have invaded our lands and are killing and raping our women and children. Your articles are a good help for Putin’s propaganda. God is your judge. Greetings from Ukraine.
Nonsense
Fantastic, I found you through Nicola Soldo.
Yeah Americans are going to get bored of supporting Ukraine. Immediately after the 24 election the Americans pull the plug.
All due respect Stephen: I think you're wrong about Putin wanting a settlement that falls short of his originally stated war aims. Those aims include militarily enforced Ukrainian neutrality; and disarmament of Ukraine along with Regime Change in Kiev. Key Russian officials have recently stated: Succumb to Russian war aims or Ukraine will be obliterated from any semblance of a sovereign nation.
Having lost at least 120,000 casualties to date, it would be very difficult to freeze the status quo, which is the best terms that could possibly be hoped for. At a large cost Russia has demolished the Ukrainian economy and chewed up at least three Ukrainian armies. Soon enough Russia can press a large offensive against greatly diminished resistance.
It's hard to imagine that Kiev would accept Russian terms. All indications are that Ukraine is on a suicidal path and rather die than succumb.
From the little I know, American policy in Eastern Europe has been increasingly driven by Nuland, since she became Cheney's advisor in 2003.
Her role in the 2014 regime change which provoked Moscow's first partial invasion is well known, and after Obama and Trump were replaced by an old cold warrior, she seems to have engineered an escalation, and been rewarded by promotion to No. 2 at State.
But what did she really think would happen in Ukraine, 'The Kaganate of Nulandia', under her and Biden's rule? Did she think, does she still think, that the war is 'winnable', or does she understand 'winning' in broader geostrategic terms, with the destruction of Ukraine 'a price worth paying' to accomplish wider goals?
In either case, where does the Nuland Doctrine leave Old Joe?
He surely can't in an election year sell a cynical 'neocon' geostrategic excuse for disaster in Ukraine after all the rhetoric of Freedom and Democracy, and the endlessly trumpeted great progress of plucky little Ukraine against evil Goliath Putin, with American help?
He can't go through 2024 flogging that dead horse as Ukraine itself collapses, perhaps a bit more slowly (past the US election) as it further depletes American resources from money to materiel?
But he's in a bind.
How does he sell some form of capitulation to get the problem out of the way before November 24?
How does he sell the destruction of Ukraine, the huge American and global costs of the war, as having been a better option than implementing Minsk II, which apart from saving insane costs to America, Europe, Africa and elsewhere (but ironically not to the main new enemy China, also now emboldened over Taiwan) would have been a far, far better result for Ukraine than any foreseeable new settlement?
"Hi Vicky, Joe here... what do we do now?"
"Biden" sells a Ukraine defeat just the way he's sold an Afghan withdrawal: Shove Ukraine down the Memory Hole ... along side Iraq, Vietnam, Korea... it's the American Way, man. The Corporate MSM is expert at maneuvering the Memory Hole.
Given Russias war crimes and war of annihilation I have to agree with Chodorosky that there will never be any negotiations. This will go to the bitter end and we will see significant escalation of losses on both sides particularly once ATACs, F-16 and Gripens appear on the battle field. Russia will have Iranian ballistic missiles. Ukraine will have longer range drones hitting Russian bomber bases. And the GOP is sinking the US defense budget and Ukraine aid. Not good.
Thanks. I don't think Ukraine can survive to the end.
Why do you mention “Russias war crimes”, as if Ukraine hasn’t committed war crimes? Ukraine has committed war crimes both during the SMO and prior, including ongoing shelling of Russian-speaking formerly Ukrainian citizens? Don’t act as if Ukraine is an “innocent victim” who is a paragon of virtue.
You're trippin' Bill. 1) ATACs, F-16 and Gripens won't appear in Ukraine anytime soon (if ever); and b) nowhere near the number required;c) without soldiers to operate these weapons and massive maintenance support, such complex weaponry can't be very effective beyond a few tactical gains. One thing Ukraine doesn't have is quality reservists.
So either NATO forces step into the fray or the war will be fought by women and teenage boys. It's over Bill.