I've seen others comment that Putin wouldn't do this so near Moscow, or wouldn't do this during the BRICs summit, and similar opinons with regard to appearances. My take is that this was a serious military threat to the government and that exactly where and when the Wagner leadership was taken out was a secondary consideration to getting it done right in terms of execution. And this seems to have been executed perfectly in that the Wagner leadership, not just Prigozhin, was eliminated all at once. There were no survivors or missteps in indentifying the targets, and that is not easy to do. Better to do it near Moscow where Putin/GRU/FSB has more control over events than to try to do this in Africa or Belarus or somewhere else and have it not go so smoothly. Competence is much more important in terms of the government's reputation than whether or not the location or timing is perfect.
I agree that Prigozhin had become a major problem once again. This operation had to be carefully planned: it was not spur of the moment. If it was a bomb it would have to be linked to an altimeter, since if there was a timer it would have exploded at the airport (as the flight was delayed). That requires preparation and planning. Similarly, if it was a missile, similar planning and coordination would be needed. My main point is I don't think it was Putin. The reason for that is the promise he made. I am sure he was approached for permission, but likely rejected it. Sort of like Queen Elizabeth 1 when asked to approve the execution of Mary, Queen of Scots, her rival. Not that Putin is above killing his enemies.. Recall that it was almost certain the GRU poisoned Sergei and Yulia Skripal with Novichuk nerve agent in the UK. Did they have Putin's permission or need it?
not sure GRU would act on something like this without Putin's approval. I do agree that taking Prigozhin and Co out was not in Putin's interest. The vertical of power is very tight in Russian (especially now), MOD is in complete sync w Putin (Shoygu is one of Putin's trusted friends as well), GRU is within that structure reporting to Gerasimov. I just don't see how GRU can go rogue on this one. This is just not the same environment as with CIA in the US running its operations independently
the "establishment" had plenty of reasons to hate Prigozhin, and just recently he was at it again claiming the army was losing in Ukraine and pointing fingers. I don't think these sort of attacks, which have political import, could be overlooked.
Seems like a strange, complicated, and awkward means to silence antagonists. Did Prigozhin and his cohorts have intentions to flee to Finland and actions were taken to repulse them? Makes more sense and adds more drama.
Prozhin forces deliberately, publicly killed a dozen or so members of the Russian military in a high profille manner. Then Proghozin publicly violated the terms of his settlement with Putin. Whle doing that in an equally high profile manner, he used the attention he got to verbally attack the quality of the Russian military keadership.
Ukraine Conflict ver. 2 is starting up in Niger and the adjacent region. Wagner is already there in force and well positioned. They outnumber the American and French forces. They have more combat experience on the ground and better leadership than what amounts to NATO forces currently stationed there. Wagner also has a much bigger budget and are unrestrained in carrying out whatever mission they take on there.
Russia is very interested in Niger at least in part because it is a very important source of Urainium for the West. Wagner group is thus really important to Putin's goals there. However, Wagner group was quickly becoming a questionable asset since it was starting to get out of control elsewhere.
I agree with Stephen Bryen. The GRU decided to take him out. They did so in a very simple (for them), spectacularly high profile manner. I'm sure the GRU is now saying to Putin......don't worry, we can take care of Niger for you and do it exactly the way you want. Just tell us what you want done there and we will be happy to make it happen. We even have a few, less well known, private militaries lying around for just that sort of thing to ensure your personal distance from anything that happens there. We acted to protect you which is our job, what's done is done, let's move on to what matters.......
For all I know, Putin may not feel he knows exactly what heppened there any more than we do. However, it did solve a big, attention getting problem for him. And that's enough.
Good thinking in your remarks, but also contains loopholes that raise doubts.
(1) Aren't your thoughts conjecture and not verified facts?
(2) Neither Prigozhin or Utkin were in Niger. Both are now deceased and Wagner is still functioning well.
(3) Why harm innocents (pilot and others) to kill two people?
(4) Prigozhin and Utkin could have been removed by simpler and less controversial methods. Intellegence agencies favor quieter methods, including sudden heart attacks or suicide.
(5) They did have bodyguards but that does not hinder official and powerful agencies from carrying out their mission. My basic question is why and who would use this ultra-extreme method to assassinate an adversary?
My argument is entirely speculative. It was obviously a mission to decapitate Wagner's leadership. I can't answer why they decided to do it this way and take innocent lives along with the Wagner's. It is very true that Prigozhin had very elaborate security measures in place, so getting rid of him with certainty in a successful mission was no doubt a key problem for the perpetrators. He moved around in armored cars with heavy security backup. He was entirely paranoid, had two planes to fool watchers, and was unpredictable. On the other hand, he was flying in and out of Moscow and St. Petersburg, so that may have been the best chance. As I have pointe out elsewhere in the comments, the GRU is a very ruthless organization.
good commentary from you stephen.. it is good someone is saying this publicly with regard your overview on where this war is going....
here is a quote from you -" “But if it’s true that it was not, he who ordered this … he has to watch his back,” Bryen said." this is a very interesting quote.. first off, while speculative - you might be right that it is the gru... what about the possibility it was not a missile but a bomb and the thought that the bomb was put on by someone other then the gru?? i really don't know, and maybe ( like 9-11) we will never find out..
Over the years, I have come to view the Russian government as a quasi-pirate ship in the sense that there's a defined leader (Putin) and below him there exists a number of ruthless factions that are each jockeying for secondary power and/or eventual succession. Prighozin fell out of favor and I believe that Bryen is correct in stating that Putin didn't give permission for the assassination. However, I might also add that whoever did this also knew that Putin wouldn't make a fuss if it happened. Kind of like the Moscow version of the Sopranos.
Thanks for sharing your take on this!
I've seen others comment that Putin wouldn't do this so near Moscow, or wouldn't do this during the BRICs summit, and similar opinons with regard to appearances. My take is that this was a serious military threat to the government and that exactly where and when the Wagner leadership was taken out was a secondary consideration to getting it done right in terms of execution. And this seems to have been executed perfectly in that the Wagner leadership, not just Prigozhin, was eliminated all at once. There were no survivors or missteps in indentifying the targets, and that is not easy to do. Better to do it near Moscow where Putin/GRU/FSB has more control over events than to try to do this in Africa or Belarus or somewhere else and have it not go so smoothly. Competence is much more important in terms of the government's reputation than whether or not the location or timing is perfect.
I agree that Prigozhin had become a major problem once again. This operation had to be carefully planned: it was not spur of the moment. If it was a bomb it would have to be linked to an altimeter, since if there was a timer it would have exploded at the airport (as the flight was delayed). That requires preparation and planning. Similarly, if it was a missile, similar planning and coordination would be needed. My main point is I don't think it was Putin. The reason for that is the promise he made. I am sure he was approached for permission, but likely rejected it. Sort of like Queen Elizabeth 1 when asked to approve the execution of Mary, Queen of Scots, her rival. Not that Putin is above killing his enemies.. Recall that it was almost certain the GRU poisoned Sergei and Yulia Skripal with Novichuk nerve agent in the UK. Did they have Putin's permission or need it?
not sure GRU would act on something like this without Putin's approval. I do agree that taking Prigozhin and Co out was not in Putin's interest. The vertical of power is very tight in Russian (especially now), MOD is in complete sync w Putin (Shoygu is one of Putin's trusted friends as well), GRU is within that structure reporting to Gerasimov. I just don't see how GRU can go rogue on this one. This is just not the same environment as with CIA in the US running its operations independently
we probably will never know
the "establishment" had plenty of reasons to hate Prigozhin, and just recently he was at it again claiming the army was losing in Ukraine and pointing fingers. I don't think these sort of attacks, which have political import, could be overlooked.
Seems like a strange, complicated, and awkward means to silence antagonists. Did Prigozhin and his cohorts have intentions to flee to Finland and actions were taken to repulse them? Makes more sense and adds more drama.
Dan Lieberman
Prozhin forces deliberately, publicly killed a dozen or so members of the Russian military in a high profille manner. Then Proghozin publicly violated the terms of his settlement with Putin. Whle doing that in an equally high profile manner, he used the attention he got to verbally attack the quality of the Russian military keadership.
Ukraine Conflict ver. 2 is starting up in Niger and the adjacent region. Wagner is already there in force and well positioned. They outnumber the American and French forces. They have more combat experience on the ground and better leadership than what amounts to NATO forces currently stationed there. Wagner also has a much bigger budget and are unrestrained in carrying out whatever mission they take on there.
Russia is very interested in Niger at least in part because it is a very important source of Urainium for the West. Wagner group is thus really important to Putin's goals there. However, Wagner group was quickly becoming a questionable asset since it was starting to get out of control elsewhere.
I agree with Stephen Bryen. The GRU decided to take him out. They did so in a very simple (for them), spectacularly high profile manner. I'm sure the GRU is now saying to Putin......don't worry, we can take care of Niger for you and do it exactly the way you want. Just tell us what you want done there and we will be happy to make it happen. We even have a few, less well known, private militaries lying around for just that sort of thing to ensure your personal distance from anything that happens there. We acted to protect you which is our job, what's done is done, let's move on to what matters.......
For all I know, Putin may not feel he knows exactly what heppened there any more than we do. However, it did solve a big, attention getting problem for him. And that's enough.
Good thinking in your remarks, but also contains loopholes that raise doubts.
(1) Aren't your thoughts conjecture and not verified facts?
(2) Neither Prigozhin or Utkin were in Niger. Both are now deceased and Wagner is still functioning well.
(3) Why harm innocents (pilot and others) to kill two people?
(4) Prigozhin and Utkin could have been removed by simpler and less controversial methods. Intellegence agencies favor quieter methods, including sudden heart attacks or suicide.
(5) They did have bodyguards but that does not hinder official and powerful agencies from carrying out their mission. My basic question is why and who would use this ultra-extreme method to assassinate an adversary?
My argument is entirely speculative. It was obviously a mission to decapitate Wagner's leadership. I can't answer why they decided to do it this way and take innocent lives along with the Wagner's. It is very true that Prigozhin had very elaborate security measures in place, so getting rid of him with certainty in a successful mission was no doubt a key problem for the perpetrators. He moved around in armored cars with heavy security backup. He was entirely paranoid, had two planes to fool watchers, and was unpredictable. On the other hand, he was flying in and out of Moscow and St. Petersburg, so that may have been the best chance. As I have pointe out elsewhere in the comments, the GRU is a very ruthless organization.
good commentary from you stephen.. it is good someone is saying this publicly with regard your overview on where this war is going....
here is a quote from you -" “But if it’s true that it was not, he who ordered this … he has to watch his back,” Bryen said." this is a very interesting quote.. first off, while speculative - you might be right that it is the gru... what about the possibility it was not a missile but a bomb and the thought that the bomb was put on by someone other then the gru?? i really don't know, and maybe ( like 9-11) we will never find out..
You are right, we may never find out. But the shrapnel in the wing points to a missile
no shrapnel in this telegram link from what i can see, although i don't see all of the plane.
https://t.me/AussieCossack/9067
https://t.me/AussieCossack/9043
i saw some pictures of the wreckage, but did not see shrapnel in the wing... if you have a link, i'd like to see that.. thanks..
Over the years, I have come to view the Russian government as a quasi-pirate ship in the sense that there's a defined leader (Putin) and below him there exists a number of ruthless factions that are each jockeying for secondary power and/or eventual succession. Prighozin fell out of favor and I believe that Bryen is correct in stating that Putin didn't give permission for the assassination. However, I might also add that whoever did this also knew that Putin wouldn't make a fuss if it happened. Kind of like the Moscow version of the Sopranos.
great analogy
well said