I suspect that this is just another fog of war accident, which are all too common in any war. I suspect everything was done as it had been done a number of times before, but this time someone didn't get the word. "The history of war is mostly a catalog of blunders."
On the other hand, I have always found it insulting that, whenever anything bad happens to Russian civilians, reactors, etc., the Ukrainians always claim the Russians did it. In this case, the Ukrainians claimed both that there were missiles instead of POWs on the flight, and also that the Russians did it.
The New York Times now has an article about this shoot down, which the Americans admit is due to a Patriot missile.
Ukraine’s Creative Use of Weapons Carries Promise and Risk
"The question of who was on the plane is less clear. American officials have not confirmed the identities of the passengers, but they said it appeared probable that at least some of them were Ukrainian prisoners. U.S. and Ukrainian officials say Russia may have overstated the number of deaths."
Thank you for these added details. They make the process quite comprehensible.
If the Russians sent a message only 15 minutes before the aircraft was due, but sent it to the Ukraine military rather than the Spetznaz unit, there could easily have been a fatal communications glitch. If in addition the actual shooters were foreign contractors, that becomes even more likely.
You obviously don't know the Russian way of thinking if you think that the Russian (knowing the Ukrainians) only informs the Ukrainian party 15 minutes before ! Let me inform you that most of the chess grandmasters are Russian or of Russian descent, I think there is no need to explain further on this matter !
Well, in the eyes of the Ukrainians, those soldiers who surrender to the Russian troops are traitors ! That is why they keep the Nazis (Kraken, Aidar, Azov) behind the frontline of Ukrainians, who shoot the retreating Ukrainians in the back ! On the other hand, you may have forgotten that the Ukrainians have already fired rockets at buildings where the Russians held Ukrainian soldiers as prisoners of war, the Ukrainian loss was dozens of prisoners of war ! In the eyes of the current Ukrainian government, the common Ukrainian soldiers are not human beings but sacrificial animals to be slaughtered !
This is what the enlightened West is now providing such enthusiastic help for, instead of advocating a peaceful solution !
To the best of my understanding, 15 minutes would be for the direct message concerning the specific aircraft. On the other hand, the POW exchange was definitely a planned thing, scheduled obviously much earlier than 15 minutes before, and that Russians do transport POWs by plane, even for those exchanges with Ukraine, has been an established thing. So might have been a deliberate thing. On the other hand, screw ups happen even at peaceful times. Not saying that that Ukraine has a tendency for it, but one can almost draw that conclusion from for example the following: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberia_Airlines_Flight_1812
I remember being in Novosibirsk at that point, in Akademgorodok, we lost some scientists on that plane - it was a big deal.
I agree it could have been a screw up, but I suspect it was a deliberate one designed to blame it on the Russians. Remember originally Kiev said Russia shot it down and they have never admitted Ukraine shot it down. Zelensky called it a big Russian crime. But he didn't get away with the ruse and in any civilized society he would have been hanged.
I think your observations are credible if, and it is a big IF, the shoot down was accidental. However, if it was purposeful (which I believe) it is a wholly different matter.
A planeload of Ukrainians, most of whom surrendered at the critical battle for Mariupol, gateway to the now Russian Azov coast, are shot down on their way to a prisoner exchange, and Kyiv blames Russia.
Meanwhile Zelensky, Yermak and Budanov move to replace the military leader who talked of stalemate, rather than the Kyiv trio's inevitable glorious victory, rolling back Russia past Mariupol to the Azov and Black Sea to the South and the 2014 border in the East
Budanov is a ruthless young psychopath, determined to escalate the conflict and draw weary foreign patrons further in to provide more support.
Queen Victoria flies in to organize the new leadership.
All a bit like 2014, when Anti-Russian forces staged escalatory assassinations they blamed on Russia, as Vicky selected their new leaders.
This unfortunate episode can be seen to fit an ongoing pattern by Ukrainian side (categorized broadly) doing anything within their power to further antagonize Russia. One gets the distinct impression, that they fear no outcome more than a ceasefire or negotiated settlement.
For the new generation of nationalist oligarchs in Kiev, the war is a huge moneymaker, due to the large foreign aid it brings in. In the same vein, mobilization policy, ie broader conscription, is massive scale opportunity for wealth transfer from men who can afford the impromptu "deferment fees", or "cash exit visa".
I don't think you can really be cynical enough about the impact this has. Thus the task of the figurehead positions are as follows: Zelensky = maintain the cash flow ; Zaluzhny = don't lose the war ; Budanov = don't allow the war to stop. If the dramatis personae are rotated out for some failure, the story won't change.
Photos and videos from the site show 4 bodies, not 75. There’s no evidence of the POWs being killed. Saying US soldiers are operating the patriots is also ridiculous. More anti-Ukraine propaganda as always, Stephen.
There were 4 recognizable bodies in images released by Russia, which appeared to be the flight crew. At such a low altitude, there would be many mostly intact bodies, as we have seen from other passenger planes shot down. Go look at images from other airliners shot down; they are grisly sites and well over half of bodies are intact.
Russia also blocked an international investigation, and then shortly after they completed the prisoner transfer of the full 192 prisoner amount. The plane had just taken off from Belgorod, after arriving from Egypt. During every other previous prisoner exchange, the plane departed from Moscow and arrived at Belgorod; they don't keep prisoners in Belgorod. They also released a list of prisoners killed on the plane, but 14 of them had already been released in a previous transfer.
None of the evidence supplied by Russia adds up. I find it interesting that every other journalist reporting on the issue will do some digging into the issue, but you always take the Russian media at face value and try to spin events in the most negative light possible for the US and Ukraine
I don;t take Russian media at face value. I read whatever information is available and decide if it is credible. You are totally wrong. I have seen awful photos of body parts recovered from the crash. Thee was no reason for Russia to sacrifice an Il-76 and its crew.
They didn't sacrifice it, it was simply shot down, and they were angry that it was shot down. If there 64 Ukrainian prisoners on board, it would be easy for Russia to verify with an independent investigation, or just images. There very well could have been many more bodies, but Russia did not release them. If they were Ukrainian prisoners, it would be an easy way to prove their point
I think the reality is that the Ukrainian prisoners, the Russian crew, and some Russian keepers were all killed. I don't think the burden of proof is on Russia. Go ask your Ukrainian friends what they did..........................
I suspect that this is just another fog of war accident, which are all too common in any war. I suspect everything was done as it had been done a number of times before, but this time someone didn't get the word. "The history of war is mostly a catalog of blunders."
On the other hand, I have always found it insulting that, whenever anything bad happens to Russian civilians, reactors, etc., the Ukrainians always claim the Russians did it. In this case, the Ukrainians claimed both that there were missiles instead of POWs on the flight, and also that the Russians did it.
The New York Times now has an article about this shoot down, which the Americans admit is due to a Patriot missile.
Ukraine’s Creative Use of Weapons Carries Promise and Risk
"The question of who was on the plane is less clear. American officials have not confirmed the identities of the passengers, but they said it appeared probable that at least some of them were Ukrainian prisoners. U.S. and Ukrainian officials say Russia may have overstated the number of deaths."
I guess that makes it OK then.
Backs up what I wrote. I think the Russians have a complete list of the passengers on the plane.
Thank you for these added details. They make the process quite comprehensible.
If the Russians sent a message only 15 minutes before the aircraft was due, but sent it to the Ukraine military rather than the Spetznaz unit, there could easily have been a fatal communications glitch. If in addition the actual shooters were foreign contractors, that becomes even more likely.
You obviously don't know the Russian way of thinking if you think that the Russian (knowing the Ukrainians) only informs the Ukrainian party 15 minutes before ! Let me inform you that most of the chess grandmasters are Russian or of Russian descent, I think there is no need to explain further on this matter !
You are quite right, I do not know the Russian way of thinking and do not pretend to.
I'm simply at a loss trying to determine who might benefit from this event.
Well, in the eyes of the Ukrainians, those soldiers who surrender to the Russian troops are traitors ! That is why they keep the Nazis (Kraken, Aidar, Azov) behind the frontline of Ukrainians, who shoot the retreating Ukrainians in the back ! On the other hand, you may have forgotten that the Ukrainians have already fired rockets at buildings where the Russians held Ukrainian soldiers as prisoners of war, the Ukrainian loss was dozens of prisoners of war ! In the eyes of the current Ukrainian government, the common Ukrainian soldiers are not human beings but sacrificial animals to be slaughtered !
This is what the enlightened West is now providing such enthusiastic help for, instead of advocating a peaceful solution !
To the best of my understanding, 15 minutes would be for the direct message concerning the specific aircraft. On the other hand, the POW exchange was definitely a planned thing, scheduled obviously much earlier than 15 minutes before, and that Russians do transport POWs by plane, even for those exchanges with Ukraine, has been an established thing. So might have been a deliberate thing. On the other hand, screw ups happen even at peaceful times. Not saying that that Ukraine has a tendency for it, but one can almost draw that conclusion from for example the following: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberia_Airlines_Flight_1812
I remember being in Novosibirsk at that point, in Akademgorodok, we lost some scientists on that plane - it was a big deal.
I agree it could have been a screw up, but I suspect it was a deliberate one designed to blame it on the Russians. Remember originally Kiev said Russia shot it down and they have never admitted Ukraine shot it down. Zelensky called it a big Russian crime. But he didn't get away with the ruse and in any civilized society he would have been hanged.
I think your observations are credible if, and it is a big IF, the shoot down was accidental. However, if it was purposeful (which I believe) it is a wholly different matter.
Absolutely spot on, if it was purposeful, it transforms the situation completely.
Why do you think that it was a deliberate action?
To an outsider, it would seem to discredit the shooter entity, the Spetznaz and their leader, rather than the army. Would that not be an own goal?
Interesting timing.
A planeload of Ukrainians, most of whom surrendered at the critical battle for Mariupol, gateway to the now Russian Azov coast, are shot down on their way to a prisoner exchange, and Kyiv blames Russia.
Meanwhile Zelensky, Yermak and Budanov move to replace the military leader who talked of stalemate, rather than the Kyiv trio's inevitable glorious victory, rolling back Russia past Mariupol to the Azov and Black Sea to the South and the 2014 border in the East
Budanov is a ruthless young psychopath, determined to escalate the conflict and draw weary foreign patrons further in to provide more support.
Queen Victoria flies in to organize the new leadership.
All a bit like 2014, when Anti-Russian forces staged escalatory assassinations they blamed on Russia, as Vicky selected their new leaders.
This unfortunate episode can be seen to fit an ongoing pattern by Ukrainian side (categorized broadly) doing anything within their power to further antagonize Russia. One gets the distinct impression, that they fear no outcome more than a ceasefire or negotiated settlement.
For the new generation of nationalist oligarchs in Kiev, the war is a huge moneymaker, due to the large foreign aid it brings in. In the same vein, mobilization policy, ie broader conscription, is massive scale opportunity for wealth transfer from men who can afford the impromptu "deferment fees", or "cash exit visa".
I don't think you can really be cynical enough about the impact this has. Thus the task of the figurehead positions are as follows: Zelensky = maintain the cash flow ; Zaluzhny = don't lose the war ; Budanov = don't allow the war to stop. If the dramatis personae are rotated out for some failure, the story won't change.
Photos and videos from the site show 4 bodies, not 75. There’s no evidence of the POWs being killed. Saying US soldiers are operating the patriots is also ridiculous. More anti-Ukraine propaganda as always, Stephen.
Dear Boris
Most of the bodies were in pieces. The idea that only four were killed is nonsense.
There were 4 recognizable bodies in images released by Russia, which appeared to be the flight crew. At such a low altitude, there would be many mostly intact bodies, as we have seen from other passenger planes shot down. Go look at images from other airliners shot down; they are grisly sites and well over half of bodies are intact.
Russia also blocked an international investigation, and then shortly after they completed the prisoner transfer of the full 192 prisoner amount. The plane had just taken off from Belgorod, after arriving from Egypt. During every other previous prisoner exchange, the plane departed from Moscow and arrived at Belgorod; they don't keep prisoners in Belgorod. They also released a list of prisoners killed on the plane, but 14 of them had already been released in a previous transfer.
None of the evidence supplied by Russia adds up. I find it interesting that every other journalist reporting on the issue will do some digging into the issue, but you always take the Russian media at face value and try to spin events in the most negative light possible for the US and Ukraine
I don;t take Russian media at face value. I read whatever information is available and decide if it is credible. You are totally wrong. I have seen awful photos of body parts recovered from the crash. Thee was no reason for Russia to sacrifice an Il-76 and its crew.
They didn't sacrifice it, it was simply shot down, and they were angry that it was shot down. If there 64 Ukrainian prisoners on board, it would be easy for Russia to verify with an independent investigation, or just images. There very well could have been many more bodies, but Russia did not release them. If they were Ukrainian prisoners, it would be an easy way to prove their point
I think the reality is that the Ukrainian prisoners, the Russian crew, and some Russian keepers were all killed. I don't think the burden of proof is on Russia. Go ask your Ukrainian friends what they did..........................