We seem to be patting ourselves on the back as we roll out ever more sophisticated military technologies, while disastrously overlooking the problem that we can't actually produce said technologies at a rate and volume that any modern war requires. In other words we're a paper tiger. We've got weapons that look good on paper, but can't actually be used at scale. Heads should roll at the Pentagon. They won't though.
the immediate solution is to deploy more ships, and rotate forces as needed, long-term would be interdicting the supply chain from Iran so the Houthis run out of missiles/drones
That said, Biden should have retreated. The Saudis couldn't crush the Yemenis for years, and have no desire to fight them again. Sooner or later, some ship is going to get too close to one of those VERY moveable ballistic missile launchers, or a drone or three will get lucky, and we will see the headline US SHIP SUNK.
Of course, at a $1 million or more an anti-missile missile, there's money to be made. Ka-CHING! Raytheon doesn't care about sailors.
There is a real risk of one of our ships being hit. So far we have been lucky. The real problem, moreover is Iran, not the Houthis, and Biden is scared to take that on.
what do you think is behind the "blowout 2023 Q3 and Q4" GDP numbers? "Inventory Rebuild". A FULL 1.3 percentage points of GDP come from "inventory rebuild" alone....you can only imagine what inventory we're talking about.
It’s actually called “capitalism.” The greatest grift in modern history. Heard on a pod the British budget in 1915 was around $250M. In just 3 years, 1918, it ballooned to $2.5B.
Pretty asymmetric in many respects, especially costs.
US/UK had to do something, but their record in asymmetric warfare is not good.
Whatever you think of their motivations, the Houthi record in asymmetric conflict is pretty impressive.
And apart from the asymmetric costs of Houthi and US/UK munitions and possibly lives, the leveraging of that asymmetry by choking the short route from Indian Ocean to Mediterranean is... astronomical.
Bottom line: Gaza is a very, very costly operation.
And mainly to keep one corrupt politician in power and out of jail for a few extra months.
There is a high probability many Houthi drones are cheap, unarmed junk decoys just meant to cause the US Navy to waste anti-missiles. Houthi missiles and drones are likely deep in caves, with huge stockpiles. If the USA is to strike Iran, the big question is: Can Iran hit the deck of an aircraft carrier and render it useless?
So Biden opens up irans oil spigot and removes sanctions, so that Iran can produce missiles for the houthies to use as a live fire exercise against the U.S. Don’t, for a minute, think that Iran isn’t watching this and figuring out how to evade our defense systems.
Operation Prosperity Guardian was always going to involve bombing Houthi missile sites and munitions dumps. There is no way to protect the sea lanes by remaining solely on defense.
At some point the fight has to be taken to the other side.
The senile imbecile squatting in the White House doesn't know what year it is. Someone made the call and since the attack was leaked in advance it most likely resulted in minimal damage or casualties.
Many ships are hit in Eritrea waters. Eritrea is sympathetic to Iran, see links below. I can find nowhere Eritrea condemning the Houthis. It is suspected Houthi supplies come through Eritrea. The Houthis attacking ships in Eritrea's water is legal under international law since Eritrea lets them.
I'm stunned at the costs and the lead time for these missiles. And that resupplies are low. I can only continue to see the munitions depletions, parts lag, attack on morale, everything has been deliberate.
I am aware that about 18 months before Trump's term ended, the long-heralded parts ordering system faltered. The following is very generalized, as I read it 2-3 years ago so my recall in definitely not exacting. However, example - replacement cones around F-16 blowers were cracked, and spares had not been ordered. It was Belgium that had the issue first. Fortunately, in Europe there are high-end metal engineering shops, with excellent metals access. The metal shops were able to get the CadCam codes and make the cones and fasteners. Once the parts were ready, it is a 5-day installation take off, inspect, replace, inspect. I understand updating software for the F-35s wasn't happening and the windshields(?) and heads-up displays, helmets needed physical upgrades. The suppliers heard nothing for so long, no replies to inquiries, so, they took down all the machining lines, etc. used them elsewhere, stored or destroyed what they did not reuse.
There is no excuse given the $$$ DOD has (somewhere).
USA sensitive agencies, all agencies, are infiltrated bottom to top with CCP, and Sharia Jihadists. We have to take our country all the way back. UniCongress, corporations, cabal, cartels, countries are determined We the People (populists - gasp!) never have a working Republic.
Reading other - understandably - irate comments here, made from various clashing perspectives, maybe an at once broader and narrower perspective is needed.
Broadly, Genocide is a legal term introduced after the Holocaust, and partly codified in the UN Genocide Convention ratified by almost all UN members.
More narrowly, until Gambia referred Myanmar to the ICJ on Genocide charges, the scope of the crime hadn't been formally tested in court .
The UK (of which I'm a citizen) now finds itself in a very difficult position, having argued for a broad definition of the charge which would apply to Myanmar's actions against its Rohingya population, but wishing to restrict the scope of the charge filed by South Africa, in defense of Israeli actions against the Palestinian population of land illegally occupied under Intenational Law.
The American Lone Ranger and faithful British Tonto can't so easily 'have it both ways', now that the eyes of the rest of an increasingly multipolar world are focused on the growing gap between what they say and what they do.
Even more than the conflict in Ukraine, the war in Gaza marks a significant geopolitical turning-point in the relations between the old duo - that after ousting the only Islamic democracy in MENA in 1953 seem to still think they own the area and its resources, patrolled by their wayward Israeli client - and 'The Rest of the World'.
They still seem largely not to understand that they no longer control an emerging new global economy, or emerging new global media, or an emerging new geopolitical landscape based on that new economy and media.
My greatest fear for the world is not the old Red or Yellow Peril of Russia or China, or even Climate Change, but what a cornered America might do in desperation at the loss of empire.
Because America's Gun Problem is to me far more frightening abroad than at home.
That is totally not true. Most of the ships were heading north to the Suez canal, not south toward Israel. Furthermore, most of the ships attacked had absolutely nothing to do with Israel. All ships are potentially impacted. The Houthis have been very sloppy about what ships they decide to attack. A few of the early ones had some partial Israeli ownership, but in December and early January, not at all. And only a few of them were carrying oil. Please check your facts more carefully.
This is not true. They have clearly stated the reason for their attacks - stop killing women and children, stop the genocide of Gaza and they will stop attacking ships bound for Israel. Unlike us, they do not have a long trail of lies and deceit. Nor are they stupid or sloppy in their attacks. For example they have not attacked Chinese ships bound for the Suez. They are not blindly attacking “any ship that moves” towards the Red. Kindly check your facts too.
Are you being intentionally obtuse? They attacked a Russian tanker ship. The Houthis are a band of clueless rebels with no precision or purpose except chaos. They are agents of Iran. These skirmishes aren't going to save anyone in Palestine. They're just an excuse to expend ammunition.
What is required is that the "fascist" Trump and similar "far right" politicians to come to power; reverse the immigration of enemy populations into the West; and create an environment where we can speak honestly about the sickness of normative Islam and the goodness of Orthodox Christianity.
The West will come to a rapprochement with Russia and will be worthy of emulation. The changes will give strength to the youth of Iran, who will be able to reject the Mullahs effectively; and the liberation of Iran will further the return of Islam to the sleepier state that was in effect for centuries after the previous high point of Islamic imperialism, as ended at the Gates of Vienna in 1683.
It's reportedly more about container ships to/from ports in EU. By far most of the crude oil passing thru the Suez is from the gulf kingdoms, and Yemen/Ansarallah aren't so insensitive as to mess with that peace unless they really need to. They just got done with a decade long war with the Saudis, in which, per the ICJ (international commission of jurists, not the court), they were subjected to large scale attacks on civilians, food, drinking water, and hospitals, and a blockade that resulted in massive famine and a million cases of cholera (sound familiar?)
Who came off better? Nobody. Maybe MBS dreamed of uniting the Arabian Peninsula, but it was not to be.
I'd have to think that an essential element of the peace, and also a key element of the reconciliation between Saudi and Iran, was keeping the strategic industry off limits. All the key powers are stuck together in the Persian Gulf
update - no longer. INTERTANKO, representing the majority of oil tanker operators, joined the avoidance of the affected route, and told members on 2024-01-12 "All Red Sea transits will be halted for 72 hours" ...
Somebody needs to look at that replenishment issue before we find ourselves in “a gut bustin’, mother lovin, Navy war”
agree
We seem to be patting ourselves on the back as we roll out ever more sophisticated military technologies, while disastrously overlooking the problem that we can't actually produce said technologies at a rate and volume that any modern war requires. In other words we're a paper tiger. We've got weapons that look good on paper, but can't actually be used at scale. Heads should roll at the Pentagon. They won't though.
In Harms Way!
the immediate solution is to deploy more ships, and rotate forces as needed, long-term would be interdicting the supply chain from Iran so the Houthis run out of missiles/drones
Immediate and long term is to come home and pursue a neutralist foreign policy.
This is very valuable information, thank you.
That said, Biden should have retreated. The Saudis couldn't crush the Yemenis for years, and have no desire to fight them again. Sooner or later, some ship is going to get too close to one of those VERY moveable ballistic missile launchers, or a drone or three will get lucky, and we will see the headline US SHIP SUNK.
Of course, at a $1 million or more an anti-missile missile, there's money to be made. Ka-CHING! Raytheon doesn't care about sailors.
There is a real risk of one of our ships being hit. So far we have been lucky. The real problem, moreover is Iran, not the Houthis, and Biden is scared to take that on.
If Biden really were trying to avoid a conflict, he sure has a strange way of going about it.
what do you think is behind the "blowout 2023 Q3 and Q4" GDP numbers? "Inventory Rebuild". A FULL 1.3 percentage points of GDP come from "inventory rebuild" alone....you can only imagine what inventory we're talking about.
Don't worry about the money. We print more of it as needed now. That is called Bidenomics.
It’s actually called “capitalism.” The greatest grift in modern history. Heard on a pod the British budget in 1915 was around $250M. In just 3 years, 1918, it ballooned to $2.5B.
Pretty asymmetric in many respects, especially costs.
US/UK had to do something, but their record in asymmetric warfare is not good.
Whatever you think of their motivations, the Houthi record in asymmetric conflict is pretty impressive.
And apart from the asymmetric costs of Houthi and US/UK munitions and possibly lives, the leveraging of that asymmetry by choking the short route from Indian Ocean to Mediterranean is... astronomical.
Bottom line: Gaza is a very, very costly operation.
And mainly to keep one corrupt politician in power and out of jail for a few extra months.
Sad.
I was rather surprised just now to hear eminent LSE professor Fawaz Gerges allowed to say almost exactly the same things on Zakaria's GPS.
As with Ukraine, but rather more quickly, the neocon White House narrative on Gaza is falling apart, like its cognitively challenged frontman.
There is a high probability many Houthi drones are cheap, unarmed junk decoys just meant to cause the US Navy to waste anti-missiles. Houthi missiles and drones are likely deep in caves, with huge stockpiles. If the USA is to strike Iran, the big question is: Can Iran hit the deck of an aircraft carrier and render it useless?
If Iran wants a real war, they can.
The question is not whether Iran wants a real war, it’s whether we truly want a just peace. Our actions suggest otherwise...
Of course, restraining the erstwhile Israeli client would be just out of the question.
So Biden opens up irans oil spigot and removes sanctions, so that Iran can produce missiles for the houthies to use as a live fire exercise against the U.S. Don’t, for a minute, think that Iran isn’t watching this and figuring out how to evade our defense systems.
Operation Prosperity Guardian was always going to involve bombing Houthi missile sites and munitions dumps. There is no way to protect the sea lanes by remaining solely on defense.
At some point the fight has to be taken to the other side.
I thought it was intended to put off the necessity of attacking the Houthis, not the reverse.
That might have been the narrative.
It was never the reality.
The senile imbecile squatting in the White House doesn't know what year it is. Someone made the call and since the attack was leaked in advance it most likely resulted in minimal damage or casualties.
Many ships are hit in Eritrea waters. Eritrea is sympathetic to Iran, see links below. I can find nowhere Eritrea condemning the Houthis. It is suspected Houthi supplies come through Eritrea. The Houthis attacking ships in Eritrea's water is legal under international law since Eritrea lets them.
https://jcpa.org/video/eritreas-silence-on-houthi-attacks-on-shipping-within-its-maritime-territory/
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-09-07/ty-article/.premium/eritrea-no-longer-serves-israels-security-interests-its-time-to-cut-ties/0000018a-6bb5-dfd9-ad9f-efb504860000
interesting ...
Thank you for bone cold truth.
Is there air cover, aggression with the ships?
I'm stunned at the costs and the lead time for these missiles. And that resupplies are low. I can only continue to see the munitions depletions, parts lag, attack on morale, everything has been deliberate.
I am aware that about 18 months before Trump's term ended, the long-heralded parts ordering system faltered. The following is very generalized, as I read it 2-3 years ago so my recall in definitely not exacting. However, example - replacement cones around F-16 blowers were cracked, and spares had not been ordered. It was Belgium that had the issue first. Fortunately, in Europe there are high-end metal engineering shops, with excellent metals access. The metal shops were able to get the CadCam codes and make the cones and fasteners. Once the parts were ready, it is a 5-day installation take off, inspect, replace, inspect. I understand updating software for the F-35s wasn't happening and the windshields(?) and heads-up displays, helmets needed physical upgrades. The suppliers heard nothing for so long, no replies to inquiries, so, they took down all the machining lines, etc. used them elsewhere, stored or destroyed what they did not reuse.
There is no excuse given the $$$ DOD has (somewhere).
USA sensitive agencies, all agencies, are infiltrated bottom to top with CCP, and Sharia Jihadists. We have to take our country all the way back. UniCongress, corporations, cabal, cartels, countries are determined We the People (populists - gasp!) never have a working Republic.
IMHO.
Reading other - understandably - irate comments here, made from various clashing perspectives, maybe an at once broader and narrower perspective is needed.
Broadly, Genocide is a legal term introduced after the Holocaust, and partly codified in the UN Genocide Convention ratified by almost all UN members.
More narrowly, until Gambia referred Myanmar to the ICJ on Genocide charges, the scope of the crime hadn't been formally tested in court .
The UK (of which I'm a citizen) now finds itself in a very difficult position, having argued for a broad definition of the charge which would apply to Myanmar's actions against its Rohingya population, but wishing to restrict the scope of the charge filed by South Africa, in defense of Israeli actions against the Palestinian population of land illegally occupied under Intenational Law.
The American Lone Ranger and faithful British Tonto can't so easily 'have it both ways', now that the eyes of the rest of an increasingly multipolar world are focused on the growing gap between what they say and what they do.
Even more than the conflict in Ukraine, the war in Gaza marks a significant geopolitical turning-point in the relations between the old duo - that after ousting the only Islamic democracy in MENA in 1953 seem to still think they own the area and its resources, patrolled by their wayward Israeli client - and 'The Rest of the World'.
They still seem largely not to understand that they no longer control an emerging new global economy, or emerging new global media, or an emerging new geopolitical landscape based on that new economy and media.
My greatest fear for the world is not the old Red or Yellow Peril of Russia or China, or even Climate Change, but what a cornered America might do in desperation at the loss of empire.
Because America's Gun Problem is to me far more frightening abroad than at home.
More lasers...
What happened to the laser systems we were developing?
I'm guessing they were "shot down" because they would be too cost effective.
There are no deployed laser systems.
https://daniellarison.substack.com/p/the-us-is-choosing-escalation-and?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=73370&post_id=140624327&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=2f2d&utm_medium=email
Born to LoseTM
Another Yank catastrophe.
Afaik only ships headed for Israel or Israeli owned/controlled have been attacked by the Houthis.
Ships carrying Russian crude to India and to China are not impacted. Has that changed?
Of course this may now get more difficult, given British and Dutch participation in these strikes.
That is totally not true. Most of the ships were heading north to the Suez canal, not south toward Israel. Furthermore, most of the ships attacked had absolutely nothing to do with Israel. All ships are potentially impacted. The Houthis have been very sloppy about what ships they decide to attack. A few of the early ones had some partial Israeli ownership, but in December and early January, not at all. And only a few of them were carrying oil. Please check your facts more carefully.
Thanks, I stand corrected, although ships heading up the Red Sea may be Eilat bound..
Actually, given the very murky nature of ship ownership, I'd wondered how the Houthis could effectively determine which ships to target.
Is there anyone keeping a list of the number and names of ships attacked? It would help illuminate the scale and the evolution of this threat.
This is not true. They have clearly stated the reason for their attacks - stop killing women and children, stop the genocide of Gaza and they will stop attacking ships bound for Israel. Unlike us, they do not have a long trail of lies and deceit. Nor are they stupid or sloppy in their attacks. For example they have not attacked Chinese ships bound for the Suez. They are not blindly attacking “any ship that moves” towards the Red. Kindly check your facts too.
Are you being intentionally obtuse? They attacked a Russian tanker ship. The Houthis are a band of clueless rebels with no precision or purpose except chaos. They are agents of Iran. These skirmishes aren't going to save anyone in Palestine. They're just an excuse to expend ammunition.
https://youtu.be/hmCEKvdWOxo?si=k0wNdS2m5vQ5vGgI
What is required is that the "fascist" Trump and similar "far right" politicians to come to power; reverse the immigration of enemy populations into the West; and create an environment where we can speak honestly about the sickness of normative Islam and the goodness of Orthodox Christianity.
The West will come to a rapprochement with Russia and will be worthy of emulation. The changes will give strength to the youth of Iran, who will be able to reject the Mullahs effectively; and the liberation of Iran will further the return of Islam to the sleepier state that was in effect for centuries after the previous high point of Islamic imperialism, as ended at the Gates of Vienna in 1683.
It's reportedly more about container ships to/from ports in EU. By far most of the crude oil passing thru the Suez is from the gulf kingdoms, and Yemen/Ansarallah aren't so insensitive as to mess with that peace unless they really need to. They just got done with a decade long war with the Saudis, in which, per the ICJ (international commission of jurists, not the court), they were subjected to large scale attacks on civilians, food, drinking water, and hospitals, and a blockade that resulted in massive famine and a million cases of cholera (sound familiar?)
https://icj2.wpenginepowered.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Yemen-War-impact-on-populations-Advocacy-Analysis-Brief-2018-ENG.pdf
Who came off better in the war with the Saudis. Don't think the Saudis want another go?
Who came off better? Nobody. Maybe MBS dreamed of uniting the Arabian Peninsula, but it was not to be.
I'd have to think that an essential element of the peace, and also a key element of the reconciliation between Saudi and Iran, was keeping the strategic industry off limits. All the key powers are stuck together in the Persian Gulf
update - no longer. INTERTANKO, representing the majority of oil tanker operators, joined the avoidance of the affected route, and told members on 2024-01-12 "All Red Sea transits will be halted for 72 hours" ...