For sure, a realistic assessment answering the question. The current failure of the U.S. and Israel to achieve any of their objectives sought by their two illegal unprovoked invasions of Iran (June 2025 12 day war and Feb 2026 ongoing) doesn't bode well for either the collapsing U.S. Empire (and its increasingly questioned outmoded global basing strategy) or the fanciful "Greater Israel" project, especially now that Israel has become an international pariah due to its ongoing genocidal practices. Neither America nor Israel has the cohesion, leadership or the industrial wherewithal to counter the coming storm from the coalescence of powers in the the MEast region and big power allies like China and Russia IMO.
Easy to say . . . the question is can you back it up with the reasons I'm wrong. I invite and encourage you to do so. If you can't/won't, then it will be obvious that you don't really have anything to add to the conversation.
An excellent but sobering report. Still, Israeli ingenuity is the best in the world. And smaller and inexpensive war fighting technologies are emerging. If any country can innovate, it’s Israel.
Isn't stealth rapidly becoming a thing of the past? Satellite surveillance seems to be taking over the role of the radar in many areas. Once the sky is saturated with prying eyes, it will be easy to monitor airfields and carriers in real time, and spot any "stealth" fighter taking off, be it day or night.
Other articles & reports are appearing on this subject and, if accurate, a proposed 10 year development time scale. Its very possible and, despite high costs, possibly very beneficial for the state in two elements. One obviously a new ultra modern fleet with spares suitable to IAF needs. This would include even faster and less complicated servicing and longer range than existing modified F35's.. The capacity to produce a new Jet would surely filter through the whole of the Israeli manufacting economy quickly.
Te production run would have the direct knowledge of the pros & cons of the current F35 and following Israel's trading of simplicity (see Merkava) production times could be far improved to that of US/EU standards. Effectively, the "know how" is already there and only needs as required improvements.
Relating to costs if the Patriot missile compared to David's Sling is an,ything to go by any new IAF project jet would likely be a half of any US one ! This and its real time experience would be a very attractive proposition to foreign buyers on "a budget". The only concern is reliable provision for any new engine . Again as for the Merkava tank Germany seems to be the choice again
What the Gripen is and what Israel thinks it needs are orders of magnitude different from each other. For starters the Gripen was intended to be an example of how to reduce costs by importing large parts of the plane from elsewhere. Only about thirty percent of the Gripen is actually Swedish. Roughly thirty percent is American complete with American legislative requirement of being subject to American commercial control of the finished product.
Israel's intention was and apparently is to develop a completely native designed and built product. It is even more difficult to do now than when they tried last time.
The difference between then and now is the phenomenal growth of Israel's economy: in the 1980s France (Rafale) had a GDP 23 times larger than Israel; today it's less than 6 times larger. Sweden (Grippen) had a GDP 7 times bigger than Israel when it developed the Grippen but they have roughly equal GDP now.
Competition for US planes will be coming from Korea, at least. There is the possibility of Israel and India teaming up with it.
Israel's experience developing the Lavi, a true strike fighter with much longer range and payload than the F16 Block 40, has much to offer.
John Golan's study of the Lavi shows some very advanced developments and requirements that would have served the F35 program well.
For sure, a realistic assessment answering the question. The current failure of the U.S. and Israel to achieve any of their objectives sought by their two illegal unprovoked invasions of Iran (June 2025 12 day war and Feb 2026 ongoing) doesn't bode well for either the collapsing U.S. Empire (and its increasingly questioned outmoded global basing strategy) or the fanciful "Greater Israel" project, especially now that Israel has become an international pariah due to its ongoing genocidal practices. Neither America nor Israel has the cohesion, leadership or the industrial wherewithal to counter the coming storm from the coalescence of powers in the the MEast region and big power allies like China and Russia IMO.
LOL, wrong.
Easy to say . . . the question is can you back it up with the reasons I'm wrong. I invite and encourage you to do so. If you can't/won't, then it will be obvious that you don't really have anything to add to the conversation.
Ok, but can Israel pay for it this time?
An excellent but sobering report. Still, Israeli ingenuity is the best in the world. And smaller and inexpensive war fighting technologies are emerging. If any country can innovate, it’s Israel.
Ginormous waste of money. The militarized State which lives by the sword, shall surely die by the sword
you referring to Iran by any chance?
Good day, sir. It depends on which sword you are referencing.
We can only hope!
Isn't stealth rapidly becoming a thing of the past? Satellite surveillance seems to be taking over the role of the radar in many areas. Once the sky is saturated with prying eyes, it will be easy to monitor airfields and carriers in real time, and spot any "stealth" fighter taking off, be it day or night.
Thanks for your great work Stephen!
We've restacked and shared this link on 'The Stacks'
https://askeptic.substack.com/p/the-stacks
I think there is a good potential for an Israel/India partnership on this. European countries have partnered in similar fashion in the past.
Other articles & reports are appearing on this subject and, if accurate, a proposed 10 year development time scale. Its very possible and, despite high costs, possibly very beneficial for the state in two elements. One obviously a new ultra modern fleet with spares suitable to IAF needs. This would include even faster and less complicated servicing and longer range than existing modified F35's.. The capacity to produce a new Jet would surely filter through the whole of the Israeli manufacting economy quickly.
Te production run would have the direct knowledge of the pros & cons of the current F35 and following Israel's trading of simplicity (see Merkava) production times could be far improved to that of US/EU standards. Effectively, the "know how" is already there and only needs as required improvements.
Relating to costs if the Patriot missile compared to David's Sling is an,ything to go by any new IAF project jet would likely be a half of any US one ! This and its real time experience would be a very attractive proposition to foreign buyers on "a budget". The only concern is reliable provision for any new engine . Again as for the Merkava tank Germany seems to be the choice again
How come Sweden had no problems to organize resources for its jet? Population-wise it's no bigger than Israel.
And Sweden does this without deep espionage and influence penetration of the US
What the Gripen is and what Israel thinks it needs are orders of magnitude different from each other. For starters the Gripen was intended to be an example of how to reduce costs by importing large parts of the plane from elsewhere. Only about thirty percent of the Gripen is actually Swedish. Roughly thirty percent is American complete with American legislative requirement of being subject to American commercial control of the finished product.
Israel's intention was and apparently is to develop a completely native designed and built product. It is even more difficult to do now than when they tried last time.
They aren’t Jewish?
Israel already has a locally developed stealth drone whose existence was accidentally leaked:
https://www.twz.com/air/the-existence-of-israels-secret-stealth-drone-should-come-as-no-surprise
The difference between then and now is the phenomenal growth of Israel's economy: in the 1980s France (Rafale) had a GDP 23 times larger than Israel; today it's less than 6 times larger. Sweden (Grippen) had a GDP 7 times bigger than Israel when it developed the Grippen but they have roughly equal GDP now.
Competition for US planes will be coming from Korea, at least. There is the possibility of Israel and India teaming up with it.
Israel's experience developing the Lavi, a true strike fighter with much longer range and payload than the F16 Block 40, has much to offer.
John Golan's study of the Lavi shows some very advanced developments and requirements that would have served the F35 program well.
https://balloonstodrones.com/2022/02/16/bookreview-lavi-the-united-states-israel-and-the-controversial-fighter-jet/