Historically Persian politics is rife with intrigues and skullduggery and much takes place that is inscrutable for outsiders; there may indeed be more to this story than meets the eye but we are unlikely to know it. Not curious that of the 3 choppers in the group the most important one went down? I also saw the Twitter account from quoted in the Cradle link the next day. Reminds me somewhat of the Progozhin "fooling around with hand grenades and champagne" story...
There seems to be a cluster of violent events as of late... the Fico assassination attempt (with total security detail fail), coups in the Sahel, color revolution in Georgia. These superimposed on the Russian breakthrough in Ukraine, and Gaza slaughter. Color me stupid but something smells somewhat fishy here...more than coincidence.
"Even amidst the prolonged blackmail [by the West], it was shocking to hear this threat during a telephone conversation with one of the EU commissioners.
As we spoke, the EU commissioner listed a whole range of measures that Western partners might take if the veto of the transparency law is overridden.
While listing these measures, he said, 'You saw what happened to Fico, and you should be very careful.'"
2:48 PM · May 23, 2024
20h
Excerpt of remarks by Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, stating that during a discussion about the adopted law on foreign agents, one of the European Commissioners tried to intimidate him by citing the recent assassination attempt on Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico,
All the "victims" are trying to resist hostile pressure from the west or have non-western orientation? Let's not say connection but see what they have in common... Georgia resisting US/EU led color coup (via implementing FARA which was copied from US FARA), Sahel kicking out US/French in favor of Russian affiliation and failed coup (3 US ?mercs/whatever killed), Fico bucking the NATO line, Iran is causing problems for both IS and US, Russia dominating in Ukraine, Israel getting strung up in international opinion pols ... no fingerprints of course... This against the backdrop of "the hug" (Putin/Xi) and the Saudi's sending non-aligned signals)
Nicely written article, essentially all true. Minor error: The Bell 212 has 2 engines, side by side, not one on top of the other. This helicopter is essentially the same as a US military UH-1N. Each Pratt & Whitney PT6T engine drives a common transmission. If one engine fails, the other can maintain max power (900 hp) for at least 30 minutes. Adequate time to cope with most emergencies and land, unless you are over water. Comment about why Raisi may have preferred the Bell over Russian helicopters. I have flown both US and Russian helicopters. The Bell helicopters operate with much lower vibration levels than the Russian helicopters. The "standard" Russian helicopter would be a Mi-8 or Mi-17. The vibration in the Russian helicopters is particularly noticeable in the transition from slow flight to faster speeds and from faster speeds to slow speeds, known as "going through translational lift." Robert P. Ryan, Airline Transport Pilot - Rotorcraft-Helicopter, CFI &CFII - Helicopter. Retired US Army Aviator.
My guess is (and that's all it is) was that this a command authority decision problem - the President wanted to get back, and forced the flight. I believe Kobe Bryant's flight had similar problems, and of course there are many other such examples in history.
The bad local weather is disputed and the same account says that the pilot of the lead helicopter directed the other two pilots to climb about a local patch of cloud.
Obviously, there are different stories circulating and different constituencies may have differing motives in their version of events.
I'd like to see expert evaluation of all the details in the different versions, because I have no data or expertise. Here is the link of the version of the events, from The Cradle for your evaluation, if you care to consider it.
"Consensus" data works for an election, and even to predict the results of horse races.
As we probably all agree, a consensus is a viable way to develop an assumption of fact, ESPCIALLY when nothing better is available.
But not when the facts probably exist.
While human weather prediction of future weather is not very robust, monitoring it is common. We live in a world with multiple satellites monitoring weather and gneral atmospheric conditions around the world, especially in countries involved in conflict or under suspicion by those nations with satellite surveillance system.
It seems likely that actual facts about the weather in and around the crash site, before and during the crash, is likely available.
It seems like it is only in the absence of real data that consensus satisfies Occam's Razor, until the facts are revealed.
OTOH, if any of the leading players in the current global tug of war published comprehensive weather pictures and data covering the helicopter crash, could we actually fully believe they are revealing REAL facts?
Thanks! I saw some pics like that. I believe the public photos were NOT on the SAME day as the crash occurred.
I have lived in mountains and on the middle slope of a volcano, so I know that a cloud in a specific place at one specific time does not mean there was one there an hour ago, or will be there in 10 minutes, due to a number of factors like wind, temperature, pressure....
Why does this make a difference? Some pundits have suggested that Iran or other nations would find it preferable to blame the crash on pilot error or helicopter defects in a storm while ascending a steep set of mountains.
Firm proof of the weather, from a variety of sources with differing agendas would be more convincing evidence.
For me, at least.
I've heard lots of news in the media that repeat what I think are obvious lies. I know that repetition alone makes people tend to believe false information. The Big Lie, a common technique, relies on repetition.
What does "consensus" mean?
That "everyone" says (in this case) there was a storm that caused the crash?
When someone relies on what "everyone says" I ask myself whether there is better evidence available.
Raisi may have been in the running to succeed 85 year old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (as is Khamenei's son Mojtada) if one really wants to look for nefarious causes of this crash.
"lack of spare parts for American helicopters"
Of course the US is under no obligation to supply spare parts to Iran and this does not impact flight safety as long as the US does not force Iranians to board those flights. A leisurely donkey ride across the mountains would have been both safer and more picturesque.
The photos of the crash site do suggest a controlled flight into terrain, with only the tail surviving the post crash fire.
What is puzzling is that the pilot, being well aware of the terrain, would fly below the level of the local peaks in bad weather. These mountains tops are not pointy, like the Himalayas, they are more like the Adirondacks. broad and fairly flat. Following a route below their tops is akin to threading a needle. It is very unlikely that any pilot would attempt that in essentially zero visibility.
That suggests the pilot was misled by an instrument failure. If the altimeter showed the aircraft at a safe altitude, the pilot would fly into terrain unaware, as seems to have been the case here
Afaik, the mountains in the area top out around 8000 feet, an altitude helicopters can manage. The least risk path would have been a direct flight over the mountains.
That said, helicopters perform better at lower altitudes, so the pilot may have chosen a route between the elevations. In instrument conditions, that is quite a demanding task.
Any altimeter or GPS error, accidental or induced, will put that aircraft in jeopardy.
I don't think much of the WSJ analysis, but this analysis is likewise lacking. Aircraft crashes can occur for a multitude of reasons. Determining the cause from afar is impossible, you're just shooting in the dark. When someone says, "All the evidence points to..." what they're actually saying is, 'I'm ignoring the other possibilities in favour of my personal theory.'
It COULD be that pilot error is at fault in this accident, just like it could be many other things. But to say that all the evidence points to it is simply not true.
Sorry, but all the statistics say that the vast majority of helicopter crashes are caused by pilot error or bad maintenance. It is unfair to argue that I am only speculating. My argument is based on the record of helicopter use.
Sorry, statistics don't cause aircraft to crash. Specific reasons are what cause aircraft to crash, and you have no idea what happened in this instance. You are merely speculating from afar, based on very sketchy information. There is no evidence at the moment, at least public evidence, that pilot error was involved. That's just you speculating based on other factors that have no bearing on this accident.
You are correct. The Foreign Minister should have been on a different chopper, maybe some of the other VIPs. In the US the President and VP are always kept separate for security reasons. I have never seen a Secretary of State and President fly together, but that does not rule it out.
In World War II, Churchill had high ranking Generals (such as US Gen. Marshall) take long flights with him so they could continue discussions. The consequences of having those planes crash or be shot down would have been pretty severe.
I don't know Mr. Bryen. The neocons have been foaming at the mouth for decades to wage war against Iran. I would not be surprised if either the CIA or MOSSAD may have been involved. Given both their histories, I'll hold firmly to my suspicions until a definitive statement is released.
When teh ENTIRE US military apparatus in cahoots with 5eyes and EU, is "after"you, it makes you the dictator the US critiques. Clearly the Iranians appear to be operating the Helo's in stealth radio silent mode due to an abundance of paranoia. They took triple redundancy to travel the delegation, only the Prez went down the other 2 helos oblivious! Must be protocol: total stealth, radio silence. But alas that was not enough.
Good security procedures aren't easy. It's a situation where you have a complete inversion of authority. A relatively low-ranking person like a pilot would be vetoing the plan of the most powerful person in the country. Outside of America not too many nations are culturally capable of fostering an environment where this is the norm.
John Paul Vann’s death in a helo crash in June 1972 in Vietnam, as discussed in Neil Sheehan’s book ‘A Bright Shining Lie’, also contains all the ingredients for a tragic accident discussed herein by Mr. Bryen.
On the evening of June 9th, after a day of conferences in Saigon, Vann boarded his helo at Pleiku for the final leg of his return flight to his HQ at Kontum, with a departure at 2100. Weather conditions were mixed, but routes between Pleiku and Kontum were available with reasonable weather. Vann had a new pilot, a competent 26 year old Captain, but a man who did not have the flight experience of Vann’s previous pilot (who Sheehan notes “Vann had drained the last of the courage out of his regular pilot...”)
There was much speculation that Vann ordered his pilot to follow the road between Pleiku and Kontum over Chu Pao Pass. This was the least satisfactory route insofar as weather was concerned, and the helo encountered rain squalls and fog. The evidence at the crash site suggested a loss of external visual reference by the pilot and his probable failure to shift to instrument flight before succumbing to vertigo. ARVN troops in the vicinity heard no gunfire, so the aircraft was not downed by hostile AAA.
In the end, the following three factors probably contributed to this accident: a) the VIP onboard drives the bus syndrome; b) lousy weather along the flight route; and c) pilot error.
Source: Neil Sheehan, 1989, A Bright Shining Lie: John Paul Vann and America in Vietnam, Vintage Books paperback edition, pages 785 - 788
Dear Ed, thanks for sharing. I took a number of HUEY (UH-1) flights in Vietnam. I recall one particular case where I was next to the side struts, the door was full open, and we were flying down Highway 1 about 25 feet off the ground (frightening people and water buffalo on the roadway). Huge amounts of dust were churned up blanking visibility. It was very scary.
"The fact that the WSJ would imply that US sanctions helped kill Raisi is misleading and suggests that the US had a hand in Raisi’s death. All the evidence points to a dangerous decision to fly in very bad weather, pilot error, a(nd) poor security procedures for a Presidential-level mission."
Which is it? The US had a hand in Raisi's death? Or Raisi's death was the result of decision to fly in very bad weather, pilot error, and poor security procedures? Can't be both, can it?
I think I was clear enough. The WSJ arguments were intended to open a door to providing Iran with spare parts. It is an old argument about sanctions. The same thing was repeatedly raised during the Reagan administration about Iraq and "civil airline" safety. And since then multiple times. It makes aircraft companies happy.
Historically Persian politics is rife with intrigues and skullduggery and much takes place that is inscrutable for outsiders; there may indeed be more to this story than meets the eye but we are unlikely to know it. Not curious that of the 3 choppers in the group the most important one went down? I also saw the Twitter account from quoted in the Cradle link the next day. Reminds me somewhat of the Progozhin "fooling around with hand grenades and champagne" story...
There seems to be a cluster of violent events as of late... the Fico assassination attempt (with total security detail fail), coups in the Sahel, color revolution in Georgia. These superimposed on the Russian breakthrough in Ukraine, and Gaza slaughter. Color me stupid but something smells somewhat fishy here...more than coincidence.
I must be dense because I don't see any connections.
"Even amidst the prolonged blackmail [by the West], it was shocking to hear this threat during a telephone conversation with one of the EU commissioners.
As we spoke, the EU commissioner listed a whole range of measures that Western partners might take if the veto of the transparency law is overridden.
While listing these measures, he said, 'You saw what happened to Fico, and you should be very careful.'"
2:48 PM · May 23, 2024
20h
Excerpt of remarks by Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, stating that during a discussion about the adopted law on foreign agents, one of the European Commissioners tried to intimidate him by citing the recent assassination attempt on Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico,
Show more
https://twitter.com/nxt888/status/1793715751242858775?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1793715751242858775%7Ctwgr%5E6315fd551aed8c2c4d799be5b4480b4fa6ef338d%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefaultf%3Dhttpsmoothiex12blogspotcomt_u%3Dhttp3A2F2Fsmoothiex12.blogspot.com2F20242F052Fyou-know-what.htmlt_d%3D0A0AReminiscence20of20the20Future...20202020200A0At_t%3D0A0AReminiscence20of20the20Future...20202020200A0As_o%3Dpopularversion%3D9a2e2eeaa47582a66c70de7213b5209c
All the "victims" are trying to resist hostile pressure from the west or have non-western orientation? Let's not say connection but see what they have in common... Georgia resisting US/EU led color coup (via implementing FARA which was copied from US FARA), Sahel kicking out US/French in favor of Russian affiliation and failed coup (3 US ?mercs/whatever killed), Fico bucking the NATO line, Iran is causing problems for both IS and US, Russia dominating in Ukraine, Israel getting strung up in international opinion pols ... no fingerprints of course... This against the backdrop of "the hug" (Putin/Xi) and the Saudi's sending non-aligned signals)
Who says the Dollar don't have global reach? Immense privilege to buy the globe.
Nicely written article, essentially all true. Minor error: The Bell 212 has 2 engines, side by side, not one on top of the other. This helicopter is essentially the same as a US military UH-1N. Each Pratt & Whitney PT6T engine drives a common transmission. If one engine fails, the other can maintain max power (900 hp) for at least 30 minutes. Adequate time to cope with most emergencies and land, unless you are over water. Comment about why Raisi may have preferred the Bell over Russian helicopters. I have flown both US and Russian helicopters. The Bell helicopters operate with much lower vibration levels than the Russian helicopters. The "standard" Russian helicopter would be a Mi-8 or Mi-17. The vibration in the Russian helicopters is particularly noticeable in the transition from slow flight to faster speeds and from faster speeds to slow speeds, known as "going through translational lift." Robert P. Ryan, Airline Transport Pilot - Rotorcraft-Helicopter, CFI &CFII - Helicopter. Retired US Army Aviator.
Thanks --I will make the change on the engines.
My guess is (and that's all it is) was that this a command authority decision problem - the President wanted to get back, and forced the flight. I believe Kobe Bryant's flight had similar problems, and of course there are many other such examples in history.
The bad local weather is disputed and the same account says that the pilot of the lead helicopter directed the other two pilots to climb about a local patch of cloud.
Obviously, there are different stories circulating and different constituencies may have differing motives in their version of events.
I'd like to see expert evaluation of all the details in the different versions, because I have no data or expertise. Here is the link of the version of the events, from The Cradle for your evaluation, if you care to consider it.
https://thecradle.co/articles-id/25017
There is consensus that the weather was awful. That's good enough for me.
Plus, the videos of the rescue attempts that I saw uniformly show very thick clouds / fog near the crash site.
"Consensus" data works for an election, and even to predict the results of horse races.
As we probably all agree, a consensus is a viable way to develop an assumption of fact, ESPCIALLY when nothing better is available.
But not when the facts probably exist.
While human weather prediction of future weather is not very robust, monitoring it is common. We live in a world with multiple satellites monitoring weather and gneral atmospheric conditions around the world, especially in countries involved in conflict or under suspicion by those nations with satellite surveillance system.
It seems likely that actual facts about the weather in and around the crash site, before and during the crash, is likely available.
It seems like it is only in the absence of real data that consensus satisfies Occam's Razor, until the facts are revealed.
OTOH, if any of the leading players in the current global tug of war published comprehensive weather pictures and data covering the helicopter crash, could we actually fully believe they are revealing REAL facts?
We don't agree. You misrepresent what I mean by data.
There are plenty of pictures released by Iran of the rescue teams in the area that show dense fog throughout.
Thanks! I saw some pics like that. I believe the public photos were NOT on the SAME day as the crash occurred.
I have lived in mountains and on the middle slope of a volcano, so I know that a cloud in a specific place at one specific time does not mean there was one there an hour ago, or will be there in 10 minutes, due to a number of factors like wind, temperature, pressure....
Why does this make a difference? Some pundits have suggested that Iran or other nations would find it preferable to blame the crash on pilot error or helicopter defects in a storm while ascending a steep set of mountains.
Firm proof of the weather, from a variety of sources with differing agendas would be more convincing evidence.
For me, at least.
I've heard lots of news in the media that repeat what I think are obvious lies. I know that repetition alone makes people tend to believe false information. The Big Lie, a common technique, relies on repetition.
What does "consensus" mean?
That "everyone" says (in this case) there was a storm that caused the crash?
When someone relies on what "everyone says" I ask myself whether there is better evidence available.
Raisi may have been in the running to succeed 85 year old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (as is Khamenei's son Mojtada) if one really wants to look for nefarious causes of this crash.
"lack of spare parts for American helicopters"
Of course the US is under no obligation to supply spare parts to Iran and this does not impact flight safety as long as the US does not force Iranians to board those flights. A leisurely donkey ride across the mountains would have been both safer and more picturesque.
The photos of the crash site do suggest a controlled flight into terrain, with only the tail surviving the post crash fire.
What is puzzling is that the pilot, being well aware of the terrain, would fly below the level of the local peaks in bad weather. These mountains tops are not pointy, like the Himalayas, they are more like the Adirondacks. broad and fairly flat. Following a route below their tops is akin to threading a needle. It is very unlikely that any pilot would attempt that in essentially zero visibility.
That suggests the pilot was misled by an instrument failure. If the altimeter showed the aircraft at a safe altitude, the pilot would fly into terrain unaware, as seems to have been the case here
it is always possible instruments were not accurate
but it is also possible he did not know where he was (which could be another mistake)
but we will never know
Afaik, the mountains in the area top out around 8000 feet, an altitude helicopters can manage. The least risk path would have been a direct flight over the mountains.
That said, helicopters perform better at lower altitudes, so the pilot may have chosen a route between the elevations. In instrument conditions, that is quite a demanding task.
Any altimeter or GPS error, accidental or induced, will put that aircraft in jeopardy.
I don't think much of the WSJ analysis, but this analysis is likewise lacking. Aircraft crashes can occur for a multitude of reasons. Determining the cause from afar is impossible, you're just shooting in the dark. When someone says, "All the evidence points to..." what they're actually saying is, 'I'm ignoring the other possibilities in favour of my personal theory.'
It COULD be that pilot error is at fault in this accident, just like it could be many other things. But to say that all the evidence points to it is simply not true.
Sorry, but all the statistics say that the vast majority of helicopter crashes are caused by pilot error or bad maintenance. It is unfair to argue that I am only speculating. My argument is based on the record of helicopter use.
Sorry, statistics don't cause aircraft to crash. Specific reasons are what cause aircraft to crash, and you have no idea what happened in this instance. You are merely speculating from afar, based on very sketchy information. There is no evidence at the moment, at least public evidence, that pilot error was involved. That's just you speculating based on other factors that have no bearing on this accident.
I am sure that the WSJ could like to claim credit.
Regardless, letting the president and FM fly in a single helicopter was foolhardy.
How else would a president travel? It had two engines.
You put dignitaries in separate helicopters, so if one crashes the results are less catastrophic.
This is standard practice in many governments and business organizations.
You are correct. The Foreign Minister should have been on a different chopper, maybe some of the other VIPs. In the US the President and VP are always kept separate for security reasons. I have never seen a Secretary of State and President fly together, but that does not rule it out.
In World War II, Churchill had high ranking Generals (such as US Gen. Marshall) take long flights with him so they could continue discussions. The consequences of having those planes crash or be shot down would have been pretty severe.
Churchill liked to tempt the fates.
..and a bit of a pompous ass.
WSJ likes quicksand
I don't know Mr. Bryen. The neocons have been foaming at the mouth for decades to wage war against Iran. I would not be surprised if either the CIA or MOSSAD may have been involved. Given both their histories, I'll hold firmly to my suspicions until a definitive statement is released.
don't hold your breath for a definitive statement ... there won't be any that is credible
True enough. Stay well.
When teh ENTIRE US military apparatus in cahoots with 5eyes and EU, is "after"you, it makes you the dictator the US critiques. Clearly the Iranians appear to be operating the Helo's in stealth radio silent mode due to an abundance of paranoia. They took triple redundancy to travel the delegation, only the Prez went down the other 2 helos oblivious! Must be protocol: total stealth, radio silence. But alas that was not enough.
Good security procedures aren't easy. It's a situation where you have a complete inversion of authority. A relatively low-ranking person like a pilot would be vetoing the plan of the most powerful person in the country. Outside of America not too many nations are culturally capable of fostering an environment where this is the norm.
John Paul Vann’s death in a helo crash in June 1972 in Vietnam, as discussed in Neil Sheehan’s book ‘A Bright Shining Lie’, also contains all the ingredients for a tragic accident discussed herein by Mr. Bryen.
On the evening of June 9th, after a day of conferences in Saigon, Vann boarded his helo at Pleiku for the final leg of his return flight to his HQ at Kontum, with a departure at 2100. Weather conditions were mixed, but routes between Pleiku and Kontum were available with reasonable weather. Vann had a new pilot, a competent 26 year old Captain, but a man who did not have the flight experience of Vann’s previous pilot (who Sheehan notes “Vann had drained the last of the courage out of his regular pilot...”)
There was much speculation that Vann ordered his pilot to follow the road between Pleiku and Kontum over Chu Pao Pass. This was the least satisfactory route insofar as weather was concerned, and the helo encountered rain squalls and fog. The evidence at the crash site suggested a loss of external visual reference by the pilot and his probable failure to shift to instrument flight before succumbing to vertigo. ARVN troops in the vicinity heard no gunfire, so the aircraft was not downed by hostile AAA.
In the end, the following three factors probably contributed to this accident: a) the VIP onboard drives the bus syndrome; b) lousy weather along the flight route; and c) pilot error.
Source: Neil Sheehan, 1989, A Bright Shining Lie: John Paul Vann and America in Vietnam, Vintage Books paperback edition, pages 785 - 788
Dear Ed, thanks for sharing. I took a number of HUEY (UH-1) flights in Vietnam. I recall one particular case where I was next to the side struts, the door was full open, and we were flying down Highway 1 about 25 feet off the ground (frightening people and water buffalo on the roadway). Huge amounts of dust were churned up blanking visibility. It was very scary.
I read that the air was clear except near the ground.
I doubt that report.
You might already know that the report comes from (former) President Raisi's chief of staff. Here is coverage by the Hindstan Times:
https://youtu.be/Ke9o6Em0msw?si=SC-APRlZ_28BMjYq
"The fact that the WSJ would imply that US sanctions helped kill Raisi is misleading and suggests that the US had a hand in Raisi’s death. All the evidence points to a dangerous decision to fly in very bad weather, pilot error, a(nd) poor security procedures for a Presidential-level mission."
Which is it? The US had a hand in Raisi's death? Or Raisi's death was the result of decision to fly in very bad weather, pilot error, and poor security procedures? Can't be both, can it?
I think I was clear enough. The WSJ arguments were intended to open a door to providing Iran with spare parts. It is an old argument about sanctions. The same thing was repeatedly raised during the Reagan administration about Iraq and "civil airline" safety. And since then multiple times. It makes aircraft companies happy.