Zelensky is going to give his "Victory" speech on October 16 to Ukraine's parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, but much of the speech will be secret. The secret part is about giving up territory to Russia.
Russia would have to be foolish to agree to a "Korea-type" solution, as NATO would take the opportunity to re-arm, and use Ukraine as a safe haven for sending terrorists and insurgents into Russian territory.
Stephen, I'd be very interested to know your source for your claim that Zelensky will be suggesting to the Ukrainian parliament to hand over Ukrainian lands to Russia....?
Strange. I didn't see any such suggestion in the article.
What the article introduces is that Zelensky will suggest a cease fire, NATO forces would come in and enforce the freeze while Ukraine regroups, rearms, refinances, remanpowers (somehow), gets admitted to NATO and the E.U. and then starts the war again with NATO troops already in theater in a classic mission creep position. (peacekeeper turns into peacemaker with an already clear picture of who the bad guys are). It isn't about handing land over to the Russians. The Russians already have the land in question and currently there is no possibility of getting it back.
As with all E.U./NATO/Zelensky proposals, they rest on the basic assumption that Russia doesn't exist as a consideration and need not be asked what they think about it. Suggesting the strategy as a real possibility is so dumb that I believe that it is likely part of Zelensky's thinking as something that looks like a way out of his predicament. If nothing else, it will get him some attention and maybe even a few billion to spend while everybody pretends to think about it.
Not so wild prediction is that the "plan" is they'll come up with some pretend structural change (loans, transnational consortium, virtual expansion of draft to include people who've already filed the country, pledge for a renewed campaign of provocations in Russia after they somehow survive the winter, EU cooperation locking down the borders better so that Ukrainians can't flee anymore, at least not without paying off the regime crony network). The pretend structural changes will thus justify another 6 months or a year's worth of subsidies to go to Kiev. Those subsidies will continue to be stolen either directly or indirectly by transferring it to a third party and then extorting it from that party.
Reality is whoever is in charge in Kiev now has to lay low and be content with perfectly lucrative levels of embezzlement, until Netanyahu gets what he wants (territorial expansion AND security at the same time), or departs *and* is replaced by someone who is both more sensible, *and* can find a way to undo what has been done in the past year. Which would be never for either one of those. Of course that story won't sell, so they'll be telling one designed to placate whoever their audience is.
Good summary of the possibilities and the outcome. I think a lot of money will he heading for foreign banks very fast, if it isn't already gone. If someday there was an audit, Americans and Europeans will learn that they were stolen blind by a bunch of crooks.
Imagine deliberations in the "free and fair" Rada when Azov effectively control the streets in Kiev! Human rights org: https://khpg.org/en/1517275970 Mind you this is not for the abduction of young men to draft them into the front lines of the war...this is for "policing"....with US supplied (likely a palantir contract) "social media profiling of every citizen's rabid right wing score".....[coming soon to a Maga-ized Murica]
"Russia does not officially recognize Transnistria and would find it hard to defend the territory..."
Not to split hairs, but it's perhaps worthwhile to note that while neither Russia nor any other country recognizes Transnistria as an independent nation, Russia does recognize the territory's status as a Russian-speaking (and politically-leaning) enclave.
Correct that Russia would find it difficult - if not impossible - to defend Transistria at the present time, should Ukraine attempt a Kursk-style invasion. However, the thing that might be restraining Ukraine from doing so is that invading Transnistria increases the likelihood that Russia will take not only Kherson oblast but Odessa as well, in order to link up all the Russian-speaking regions. Nevertheless I believe that Russia may well take Odessa regardless of what Ukraine does or doesn't do with Transnistria.
There are not so many people in Transnistria. In 2020 the population was said to be 420,000. They are Russian speakers, as is part of Moldova (primarily the southern part). The rest in Moldova speak "Moldovan" which is just Romanian, neither more or less. The Russians are quiet about Transnistria overall. As for Odessa, the Russians want it. One study says: "Odessa has a population of 1,016,515 (2015) within a wider Oblast population of 2,396,442. A
century ago its population was mainly composed of Russians (49%) and Jews (31%) with Ukrainians representing only 9%. Nowadays Ukrainians are the largest ethnic group (62%) with Russians the second largest (28%), but Russian is the principal language. (I don't believe the numbers, especially since so many Ukrainians fled to Europe.)
RIP Ukraine if Odessa is taken. Then it'll become a landlocked country with very little resources, very little people left (fled or dead or invalid), very high debts, but still with the crony/corrupt culture. Dumped by the whole West. Finished off by Russia.
I highly doubt that Zelensky will talk about giving up territory even in secret. He can't do that, probably ever, given that the Banderites would get rid of him if he did. The only long-term solution for him is to keep resisting any deal, then flee to Miami and set up a government in exile when the timing is right. I just don't see how he escapes alive otherwise.
You used an extremely suggestive (and certainly correct) characterization of the British Army today: "it is barely a shell of its former self". I think it can be successfully applied to many once admired states as well as to many current leaders in relation to some predecessors.
The British Army is the greatest (diverse) army in the world! Well, maybe the US has more queer soldiers. I'm sure the enemy will tremble in their boots when those gals/guys/whatever you call them come twerking!! /sarc
It seems that today's world thinks it can manage without the knowledge and experiences of those of the past... „Know your strengths and weaknesses”, "Know your enemy and know yourself" (Sun Tzu). If they had been taken into account, many serious situations would probably have been avoided...
We can go splitting hairs here, but E-UK doesn't "belong" to Russia. Russia entered because UK was bombing their -mainly Russian speaking/leaning- countrymen. So Russia took it up to defend them.
Seeing a similarity with the ME here, but no Arabs going to put their foot down it seems (not yet?).
As I was reading, I was wondering why Zelensky's "Peace Plan" (sic, of perhaps, sick) warrants so much discussing in the non-fantasy media space.
The punch line at then end explains it.
OTOH, the "Plan" to admit reality (Russia has possession of X/Y/Z) without legally recognizing it, with a "sure-fire" plan to take it back in the imaginarily certain future is already publicly available.
I find it ironic that a speech outlining the secret aspects of an agreement that will not be made, presented by an unelected modern Churchill, in a Rada full of formally-elected Legislators will be credible... much less required by Azov and other factions to justify to ending Zelensky's Rule.
A coup to replace Zelensky would also give NATO an excuse for ending support.
So Zelensky is safe, because he is essential to keep the money flowing.
That aside, the Orwellian quality of this war is underscored by the ‘Victory Speech’ designation for what is in fact a recognition of defeat.
Russia may still be willing to accept the basic Istanbul accords, but would insist on complete sanctions removal and full return of their seized assets. That will be difficult to spin as a victory.
Every invasion into Russia has ended with a Russian victory parade inside the invader's capital city. Paris, Berlin and now Kiev. Make no mistakes, after the West lied to Russia for years about the Minsk2 agreement, there won't be any negotiations. The West simply can't be trusted.
Интригующе ! Правда ,возникает вопрос по нацистам "Азова" : они , в равной степени с остальными силами политикуса Украины - видят удручающее положение страны . Не думаю , что их "идейность" - может помешать им скрыться в "неизвестном направлении", бросив своих "поклонников" на новые испытания .За годы "независимости",они привыкли к роскоши ,накопили капиталы ,вывезли их в надежные гавани и , потерять это все в одночасье ?! Нет , " героями" в посмертном "исполнении",они - точно не хотят быть ! И , Зеленский - нужен им (Всем нам-тоже !) живым и невредимым.
Можно предположить ,как Брайен - переворот , военными , с последующим прекращением огня ,капитуляцией и запросом на переговоры с Россией ,без посредников .
Самое трудное будет - перехватить Украину у кредиторов и , "простить" им - потерю их "инвестиций" .
Clever strategy of the Brits to back their "tongue wagging" aggro imperialism, not with troops, but...an aircraft carrier. Just sail in to 500 miles away from conflict....job done.
Russia would have to be foolish to agree to a "Korea-type" solution, as NATO would take the opportunity to re-arm, and use Ukraine as a safe haven for sending terrorists and insurgents into Russian territory.
Stephen, I'd be very interested to know your source for your claim that Zelensky will be suggesting to the Ukrainian parliament to hand over Ukrainian lands to Russia....?
Strange. I didn't see any such suggestion in the article.
What the article introduces is that Zelensky will suggest a cease fire, NATO forces would come in and enforce the freeze while Ukraine regroups, rearms, refinances, remanpowers (somehow), gets admitted to NATO and the E.U. and then starts the war again with NATO troops already in theater in a classic mission creep position. (peacekeeper turns into peacemaker with an already clear picture of who the bad guys are). It isn't about handing land over to the Russians. The Russians already have the land in question and currently there is no possibility of getting it back.
As with all E.U./NATO/Zelensky proposals, they rest on the basic assumption that Russia doesn't exist as a consideration and need not be asked what they think about it. Suggesting the strategy as a real possibility is so dumb that I believe that it is likely part of Zelensky's thinking as something that looks like a way out of his predicament. If nothing else, it will get him some attention and maybe even a few billion to spend while everybody pretends to think about it.
Ukraine can’t “hand over” land they no longer control. They will have to take it back. They can’t. That is precisely the issue.
Not so wild prediction is that the "plan" is they'll come up with some pretend structural change (loans, transnational consortium, virtual expansion of draft to include people who've already filed the country, pledge for a renewed campaign of provocations in Russia after they somehow survive the winter, EU cooperation locking down the borders better so that Ukrainians can't flee anymore, at least not without paying off the regime crony network). The pretend structural changes will thus justify another 6 months or a year's worth of subsidies to go to Kiev. Those subsidies will continue to be stolen either directly or indirectly by transferring it to a third party and then extorting it from that party.
Reality is whoever is in charge in Kiev now has to lay low and be content with perfectly lucrative levels of embezzlement, until Netanyahu gets what he wants (territorial expansion AND security at the same time), or departs *and* is replaced by someone who is both more sensible, *and* can find a way to undo what has been done in the past year. Which would be never for either one of those. Of course that story won't sell, so they'll be telling one designed to placate whoever their audience is.
Good summary of the possibilities and the outcome. I think a lot of money will he heading for foreign banks very fast, if it isn't already gone. If someday there was an audit, Americans and Europeans will learn that they were stolen blind by a bunch of crooks.
BTW, Ukraine has long been a hard currency laundering destination....(note this means USD) https://www.mondaq.com/Home/LinkedinReferal/1035?lcompany=5508&author_id=1072000&article_id=751402
The person who backs Zel is a primary implicated party. One degree of separation.
The plan is to keep Ukraine together until after the US elections.
I volunteer those Two Grumpy individuals for the front lines of the NATO expeditionary force. I knew Brian from my years in Ukraine.
Imagine deliberations in the "free and fair" Rada when Azov effectively control the streets in Kiev! Human rights org: https://khpg.org/en/1517275970 Mind you this is not for the abduction of young men to draft them into the front lines of the war...this is for "policing"....with US supplied (likely a palantir contract) "social media profiling of every citizen's rabid right wing score".....[coming soon to a Maga-ized Murica]
"Russia does not officially recognize Transnistria and would find it hard to defend the territory..."
Not to split hairs, but it's perhaps worthwhile to note that while neither Russia nor any other country recognizes Transnistria as an independent nation, Russia does recognize the territory's status as a Russian-speaking (and politically-leaning) enclave.
Correct that Russia would find it difficult - if not impossible - to defend Transistria at the present time, should Ukraine attempt a Kursk-style invasion. However, the thing that might be restraining Ukraine from doing so is that invading Transnistria increases the likelihood that Russia will take not only Kherson oblast but Odessa as well, in order to link up all the Russian-speaking regions. Nevertheless I believe that Russia may well take Odessa regardless of what Ukraine does or doesn't do with Transnistria.
There are not so many people in Transnistria. In 2020 the population was said to be 420,000. They are Russian speakers, as is part of Moldova (primarily the southern part). The rest in Moldova speak "Moldovan" which is just Romanian, neither more or less. The Russians are quiet about Transnistria overall. As for Odessa, the Russians want it. One study says: "Odessa has a population of 1,016,515 (2015) within a wider Oblast population of 2,396,442. A
century ago its population was mainly composed of Russians (49%) and Jews (31%) with Ukrainians representing only 9%. Nowadays Ukrainians are the largest ethnic group (62%) with Russians the second largest (28%), but Russian is the principal language. (I don't believe the numbers, especially since so many Ukrainians fled to Europe.)
RIP Ukraine if Odessa is taken. Then it'll become a landlocked country with very little resources, very little people left (fled or dead or invalid), very high debts, but still with the crony/corrupt culture. Dumped by the whole West. Finished off by Russia.
I -almost- feel pithy for them.
I highly doubt that Zelensky will talk about giving up territory even in secret. He can't do that, probably ever, given that the Banderites would get rid of him if he did. The only long-term solution for him is to keep resisting any deal, then flee to Miami and set up a government in exile when the timing is right. I just don't see how he escapes alive otherwise.
You used an extremely suggestive (and certainly correct) characterization of the British Army today: "it is barely a shell of its former self". I think it can be successfully applied to many once admired states as well as to many current leaders in relation to some predecessors.
The British Army is the greatest (diverse) army in the world! Well, maybe the US has more queer soldiers. I'm sure the enemy will tremble in their boots when those gals/guys/whatever you call them come twerking!! /sarc
Sometimes sarcasm is needed :)
It seems that today's world thinks it can manage without the knowledge and experiences of those of the past... „Know your strengths and weaknesses”, "Know your enemy and know yourself" (Sun Tzu). If they had been taken into account, many serious situations would probably have been avoided...
Zelensky won't have to give anything to the Russians. The Russians themselves will take what belongs to them. Today or tomorrow, another "impregnable fortress" Toretsk will fall, it has already been liberated by the Russians by 70%. The front line, as in 1944, is inexorably rolling back to the west. In the current situation, it would be appropriate to quote one quote: "Our cause is right! The enemy will be defeated! Victory will be ours!"© Georgian politician Iosif Dzhugashvili.
We can go splitting hairs here, but E-UK doesn't "belong" to Russia. Russia entered because UK was bombing their -mainly Russian speaking/leaning- countrymen. So Russia took it up to defend them.
Seeing a similarity with the ME here, but no Arabs going to put their foot down it seems (not yet?).
As I was reading, I was wondering why Zelensky's "Peace Plan" (sic, of perhaps, sick) warrants so much discussing in the non-fantasy media space.
The punch line at then end explains it.
OTOH, the "Plan" to admit reality (Russia has possession of X/Y/Z) without legally recognizing it, with a "sure-fire" plan to take it back in the imaginarily certain future is already publicly available.
I find it ironic that a speech outlining the secret aspects of an agreement that will not be made, presented by an unelected modern Churchill, in a Rada full of formally-elected Legislators will be credible... much less required by Azov and other factions to justify to ending Zelensky's Rule.
A coup to replace Zelensky would also give NATO an excuse for ending support.
So Zelensky is safe, because he is essential to keep the money flowing.
That aside, the Orwellian quality of this war is underscored by the ‘Victory Speech’ designation for what is in fact a recognition of defeat.
Russia may still be willing to accept the basic Istanbul accords, but would insist on complete sanctions removal and full return of their seized assets. That will be difficult to spin as a victory.
Every invasion into Russia has ended with a Russian victory parade inside the invader's capital city. Paris, Berlin and now Kiev. Make no mistakes, after the West lied to Russia for years about the Minsk2 agreement, there won't be any negotiations. The West simply can't be trusted.
Интригующе ! Правда ,возникает вопрос по нацистам "Азова" : они , в равной степени с остальными силами политикуса Украины - видят удручающее положение страны . Не думаю , что их "идейность" - может помешать им скрыться в "неизвестном направлении", бросив своих "поклонников" на новые испытания .За годы "независимости",они привыкли к роскоши ,накопили капиталы ,вывезли их в надежные гавани и , потерять это все в одночасье ?! Нет , " героями" в посмертном "исполнении",они - точно не хотят быть ! И , Зеленский - нужен им (Всем нам-тоже !) живым и невредимым.
Можно предположить ,как Брайен - переворот , военными , с последующим прекращением огня ,капитуляцией и запросом на переговоры с Россией ,без посредников .
Самое трудное будет - перехватить Украину у кредиторов и , "простить" им - потерю их "инвестиций" .
Clever strategy of the Brits to back their "tongue wagging" aggro imperialism, not with troops, but...an aircraft carrier. Just sail in to 500 miles away from conflict....job done.
North Korean troops are already in Ukraine according to CPOK https://www.kyivpost.com/post/40509
Do you consider this source reliable?
I think they're already there since NK delivered the bombs. If I would be NK, I'd want to closely monitor how they perform in order to improve them.
Doesn't mean I would commit troops to fight for a piece of land half a globe away.