55 Comments

There is no evidence that "the Chinese are increasingly angry with Iran". Reuters is a western info-war shop and the "anonymous Iranian officials and people familiar with the matter" is Jake Sullivan sending a text message to a Reuters journalist. Nor is the belt and road "collapsing". I don't know why Americans insist on living in a fantasy world. We must engage things as they are. China's interests are entirely aligned with the erosion of American power that is taking place in Arabia, and this is in turn aligned with the interests of Iran and Russia. A short term decline in trade is absolutely worth a permanent decline in American power. If the US wishes to remain hegemonic it needs to a dramatic shift in strategy.

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You are entitled to your opinion, but I find it rather strange. Are you speaking on behalf of Beijing when you say ". A short term decline in trade is absolutely worth a permanent decline in American power."? Reuters is a news service, not a western info-war shop as you seem to think. I don't always agree with their reporting, but I would never characterize them as you do. Incidentally it is owned by Thompson-Reuters and has its HQ in the UK. I don't buy the hegemonic line either. It is leftist propaganda.

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Yeah I guess we'll find out pretty quick if China is "angry" with Iran or if I am correct and this nonsense is Jake Sullivan texting a friend from college.

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Probably agree. I have not followed Jake Sullivan's moves on this question. But he is not the source of the story.

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Let's walk through an American info op:

25th) Reuters on the 25th says China is "angry" at Iran, citing "officials". The purpose here is to "shift the narrative" from China is indifferent and her ships are being let through by the Houthi to "China and Iran are breaking up".

26th) NYT summarizes Jake's talking points for meeting with Wang in an op-ed https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/26/opinion/china-redsea-houthi-shipping.html

27th) Jake Sullivan and Wang Yi meet and the US nags China about supporting Operation Prosperity Guardian

28th) i) Politico: "US-China meetings fail to produce breakthrough on Red Sea shipping attacks" ii) Chinese readout doesn't even mention it beyond saying a regional issue was discussed: http://us.china-embassy.gov.cn/eng/zmgx/zxxx/202401/t20240128_11234629.htm

Another Jake Sullivan fail. He's a campaign guy and not a strategist. He doesn't understand strategy. He only understands optics. This is the guy who organized a Ukraine Victory Party in Saudi before the Ukrainian "offensive" even started.

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I can't see any reason why China would listen to anything Sullivan had to say. In fact, his getting involved seems to me counterproductive.

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I agree. When Jake calls I assume Wang rolls his eyes. The Americans want to Ukraine'ize Taiwan and expect China to help out in the Red Sea? The audacity.

Sullivan's assertion that the US can "walk and chew gum" (concurrent containment of China, Russia and Iran) will soon be understood as a pivotal error. For example: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russia-And-Iran-Finalize-20-Year-Deal-That-Will-Change-The-Middle-East-Forever.html

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Russia and China are chalk and cheese. Russia recently inked a 20-year accord with fellow BRICS+ member Iran strengthening commercial and defense ties. China would have approved this. Reduced trade into Europe for a while is the cost of pulling the West down off its hegemonic perch.

Also: there are Chinese flagged ships owned by Israeli firms. There are probably levels of detail here that are not being reported.

Reuters is an old, deeply rooted corporation, part of the Establishment. But you'd have to have been reading alternative press going back several decades perhaps to know this.

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The Iranian Foreign Ministry has stated that China has not placed any pressure on Iran to diminish Houthi attacks on ships in and around the Red Sea.

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"A short term decline in trade"

China will put economic growth above all else, See 1989 Tiananmen Square. If you don't think those old men in Politburo don't have that year in the back of their mind, your foolish. The way they keep it suppressed is through robust, continued economic growth.

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That is absolutely not true. For example, China is currently engaged in a painful restructuring of the economy, shifting credit from real estate to production, at a great cost to near term economic growth. China is demonstrating a full willingness to experience near term pain for long term goals.

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Yes, correct. We been this before, Glasnost 1970s-80s. It led to Perestroika 1980s.

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That is cope, not analysis. Have a nice day.

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"That is cope"

I didn't mean to bust your bubble.......keep coping! I am cheering for ya.

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It has been evident for weeks based on shipping rates and crude oil prices that Iran's proxy attacks on Red Sea shipping via the Houthis was doing more damage to Russia and China than to Israel and the United States.

https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/hamas-v-israel-who-is-taking-iran

If the US can avoid falling into the trap of turning the conflict into another US war in the Middle East, the economic pressures should force Beijing to act as interlocutor to get Tehran to rein in the Houthis.

Not giving Iran the escalation that it wants is what is needed here. Let Iran and it's proxies be the ones taking the conflict up a notch.

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I agree. I think you have it right. But what I am not so sure about is the rationality of the Iranians, who think they are in the catbird seat. We will have to wait and see.

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The question to be asked is why Iran is pushing for a Middle Eastern war.

The economics of war make such a strategy distinctly irrational. Which means Tehran's motivations are not economic. They could be religious, they could be geopolitical, they could even be apocalyptic, if Twelver Shi'ism truly views the emergence of the Twelfth Imam from "occultation" as part and parcel of the ending of the world.

Short of bringing on the Apocalypse, Tehran would very much like to be the regional hegemon over the Persian Gulf and the rest of the Middle East. Given that Saudi Arabia's power is all economic and not military, a Middle Eastern war could be viewed as playing to Tehran's strengths and Riyadh's weaknesses.

At the same time, Iran, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and most of Iran's proxy militias and terror groups are Shi'a, while the majority within most Arab countries are Sunni. Both Muslim sects view the other as heretics and apostates. Hamas is the only Sunni terror group supported by Iran--and Hamas is little more than cannon fodder to Tehran.

Tehran might be perfectly reasonable in thinking it is in the catbird seat, if we presume that their motivations have nothing to do with economic and everything to do with some of the other forces that drive Great Power Competition. Tehran might not give a damn at all over the impact of its Red Sea missile mischief on China exports or Russian oil.

What is not likely to endure for very long is any sort of close cooperation and rapprochement between Russia and Iran, and China and Iran. Russia needs oil prices moving up to finance its war in Ukraine, and China needs shipping rates not moving up if it wants to have a hope in hell of reviving its collapsing economy. Tehran might wish to ignore the economic ramifications of their mischief, but Moscow and Beijing do not have that luxury.

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Thoroughly enjoy the analysis of geopolitical situations across the globe. You will never find such in depth information from any main stream media outlets in America. China's economic issues will be addressed at some point, and it's worldwide influence continues to grow. Biden is this century's Nero as he fiddles away America's power and influence. These critical issues of our time won't be solved by negligence or incompetence.

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Many thanks

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These days I find China to be much less ideological and more pragmatic than the United States. The USA has truly lost its way under Biden and the warmongering neocons.

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It's almost as if the current administration is dangerously incompetent.

Effeminate men and women should not be running this country.

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If China opens the Red Sea to pro-NATO shipping, it means China controls the sea lanes, not NATO countries.

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Haven't read about this anywhere else, great catch and analysis.

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1st just want to say I appreciate your excellent analysis have been reading and recommending your work for a while now. I'm unsure if china will put major pressure on iran. Making a statement is just good optics

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I am not sure either since the Iranians told them that they have no influence over the Houthis (which, of course, isn't true). But China would not have raised the matter if it was unimportant to them.

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All I know is that the CCP chinks still have some power over the screaming fools from the 4th century living in the Middle East. They have a scary relationship with the world. AS we do do with our own Gubmint at the moment.

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I don't accept racist words. Please stop it.

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Jan 28Edited

China has been on the verge of collapse for 20 years (at what cost!), so maybe this time will really be it

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Geez, I remember not so long ago the geniuses in DC were complaining about the Saudi's attacking the Houthi's for shooting missiles into their oil production. I thought then we should arm the Saudi's to the hilt and let them clean up the crazy Muslim world, seems I was correct.

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Interesting piece, Mr. Bryen, and the added bonus is the lively discussion it seems to have provoked below.

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I arrived here through a CFP link and would like to give a hat-tip to Mr. Bryer and all off the people who posted here regarding Mr. Bryer's post. I appreciate the level of education I have received today through reading all of your comments. It seems nowadays that it's rare to see a thread of comments following such an interesting presentation that is as enlightening as this one. I have become so fatigued by comments that hurl insults and produce so little thought provoking information and opinion.

Thank you, all of you!

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America's financial state is in danger. To disparage other economies, without a descriptive comparison provides little depth of understanding.

I have not seen an article that comparatively discusses China, the EU, Japan, the commodity countries in the g7 , and America side by side. Compare a variety of common metrics like debt, gdp, bond rates, currency value, etc

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Me neither.

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01/28/24: Superbly written (arrived here via Citizen Free Press, which provided the link). For an example of the exact opposite, see Selina Hastings's biography of Sybille Bedford (2021). Thank you!

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Mr. Bryen, does Iran hold sufficient countervailing influence with China due to hydrocarbon exports? Might they say to Beijing, "Cut off your components, and we cut off our oil," roughly speaking?

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Iran can get plenty of oil from the other Gulf countries and from Russia. I don't think Iran can pressure China on oil deliveries, although on technology and a role in Iran's oil business they may have some leverage.

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