According to a recent LBC report (October 2023) and an old Haaretz report, Iran has a small base in Eritrea. Israel is also mad at Eritrea lately. If the Iranian base is still open, the only way to prevent the Houthis from tracking ships is to attack Eritrea. Should the USA attack Eritrea?
Great article, as always Dr. Bryen (suck it auto-correct). Now that Persia is a former member of BRICS+, I could forsee the PLAN base in Djibouti playing an important role in supporting the Houthi activities (under the guise of "protecting the sea lanes."). The Russians are integrating AI into their drones in Ukraine. I wonder how long until they're made available to "friendly," countries?
Moves and counter-moves. The wise chess master sees ahead several moves. We all know how important chess is to the Persians and Russians; especially with American led NATO forces playing tiddlywinks.
Is not the AIS used by commercial shipping to avoid accidental collisions?
I'd worry that in a constricted space such as the Red Sea, this cure might be worse than the disease.
Also, would safe ships such as those carrying Russian oil to India not prefer to keep their AIS on to avoid getting confused with ships targeted by the Houthis?
Stephen, again this is more excellent work for those of us less knowledgeable.
The problem is that a few fixes may be a problem for the Houthis and allies, but it will not deter them and we could end up with another undeclared war. Well, we're kinda, sorta in another one already.
- Thuraya is also an option for satellite communication, and easily available online - The US will need to persuade Al Nahyan (UAE) to turn it off over the region too.
- Russia has two satellite communication companies that use their own satellites - Russian Satellite Communications Company (rscc.ru) and Gazprom Space Systems (gazprom-spacesystems.ru). China also has its own (yandex it, google supresses that info for whatever reason)
- Then GPS supressing does not work anymore the way it did few years ago - most modules connect to all existing satellite systems and compare data. This is if you change the location, not supress all signals (for which you need lots of power nearby)
I am inclined to beleive US intelligence is keeping Iridium operational (not asking the company to stop some specific data transfer) as they try to monitor its Ansar Allah and Iran use. And they know the enemy will to switch to other operators that will be very hard for the US to penetrate /get data from. The technical detail to know (I'm not a telecommunications specialist) is whether you can switch off service in a certain area but still gather secretly usage data and conversations. We know Andoid can do it, but I have no idea how it works on a satellite phone. I bet it does not.
But I'd be interested to learn more on Houthi target selection before attacks.
The Houthi spokesman claims they only attack ships with an Israeli connection, or US / UK warships trying to interdict their attacks. Indeed they claim they have a legal right and even duty to sanction such shipping under the Genocide Convention.
This is all of course, very far-fetched, but despite frequent claims by Israeli amd Western politicians, spokespersons and media that the targeting is 'indiscriminate', I've yet to see details of any 'arbitrary' Houthi attack (or for that matter of any proven Iranian direction of the attacks by what our media and politicians always call 'Iran-backed Houthis' rather than just Houthis).
The only ships I've seen actually mentioned as attacked but having no connection with Israel are Unity Explorer and Number 9, cited by Daniel Hagari.
Yet both have tenuous Israeli connections, easily found once their names and rough positions were known through AIS.
"[Number 9] did not visit Israel and did not transfer goods to or from Israel. Security officials discovered that the Houthis' original target was a partially Israeli-owned ship, but they misidentified it and attacked the British ship despite the fact that it had crew members from all over the world - but not from Israel. The mistake in identification is probably explained by the fact that, four years ago, the ship had a connection to Israeli ownership.
"Another ship that was attacked by the Houthis, Unity Explorer, is also not Israeli and does not carry an Israeli flag but is owned by a British firm that includes Dan David Ungar, who lives in Israel and is the son of an Israeli shipping billionaire, as one of its officers. No Israeli crew members were known to be on board."
I'd be interested to learn of any clearer examples of completely arbitrary targeting of another ship in the Red Sea.
Of course the attacks are outrageous and illegal, but as far as I can see there's more method in Houthi madness than their critics and adversaries want to admit.
According to a recent LBC report (October 2023) and an old Haaretz report, Iran has a small base in Eritrea. Israel is also mad at Eritrea lately. If the Iranian base is still open, the only way to prevent the Houthis from tracking ships is to attack Eritrea. Should the USA attack Eritrea?
"Iran also maintains a military presence in the southern port of Eritrea" https://www.lbcgroup.tv/news/news-bulletin-reports/731047/unveiling-eritreas-role-a-geopolitical-chessboard/en
"Both Iran and Israel Have Military Bases in Eritrea"
https://www.haaretz.com/2012-12-12/ty-article/.premium/israel-iran-have-bases-in-eritrea/0000017f-efe8-d497-a1ff-efe863340000
Great article, as always Dr. Bryen (suck it auto-correct). Now that Persia is a former member of BRICS+, I could forsee the PLAN base in Djibouti playing an important role in supporting the Houthi activities (under the guise of "protecting the sea lanes."). The Russians are integrating AI into their drones in Ukraine. I wonder how long until they're made available to "friendly," countries?
Moves and counter-moves. The wise chess master sees ahead several moves. We all know how important chess is to the Persians and Russians; especially with American led NATO forces playing tiddlywinks.
Is not the AIS used by commercial shipping to avoid accidental collisions?
I'd worry that in a constricted space such as the Red Sea, this cure might be worse than the disease.
Also, would safe ships such as those carrying Russian oil to India not prefer to keep their AIS on to avoid getting confused with ships targeted by the Houthis?
Stephen, again this is more excellent work for those of us less knowledgeable.
The problem is that a few fixes may be a problem for the Houthis and allies, but it will not deter them and we could end up with another undeclared war. Well, we're kinda, sorta in another one already.
I'm not sure this is going to work...
- Thuraya is also an option for satellite communication, and easily available online - The US will need to persuade Al Nahyan (UAE) to turn it off over the region too.
- Russia has two satellite communication companies that use their own satellites - Russian Satellite Communications Company (rscc.ru) and Gazprom Space Systems (gazprom-spacesystems.ru). China also has its own (yandex it, google supresses that info for whatever reason)
- Then GPS supressing does not work anymore the way it did few years ago - most modules connect to all existing satellite systems and compare data. This is if you change the location, not supress all signals (for which you need lots of power nearby)
https://www.aliexpress.com/item/1005004131946090.html
I am inclined to beleive US intelligence is keeping Iridium operational (not asking the company to stop some specific data transfer) as they try to monitor its Ansar Allah and Iran use. And they know the enemy will to switch to other operators that will be very hard for the US to penetrate /get data from. The technical detail to know (I'm not a telecommunications specialist) is whether you can switch off service in a certain area but still gather secretly usage data and conversations. We know Andoid can do it, but I have no idea how it works on a satellite phone. I bet it does not.
Great analysis, as always.
But I'd be interested to learn more on Houthi target selection before attacks.
The Houthi spokesman claims they only attack ships with an Israeli connection, or US / UK warships trying to interdict their attacks. Indeed they claim they have a legal right and even duty to sanction such shipping under the Genocide Convention.
This is all of course, very far-fetched, but despite frequent claims by Israeli amd Western politicians, spokespersons and media that the targeting is 'indiscriminate', I've yet to see details of any 'arbitrary' Houthi attack (or for that matter of any proven Iranian direction of the attacks by what our media and politicians always call 'Iran-backed Houthis' rather than just Houthis).
The only ships I've seen actually mentioned as attacked but having no connection with Israel are Unity Explorer and Number 9, cited by Daniel Hagari.
Yet both have tenuous Israeli connections, easily found once their names and rough positions were known through AIS.
"[Number 9] did not visit Israel and did not transfer goods to or from Israel. Security officials discovered that the Houthis' original target was a partially Israeli-owned ship, but they misidentified it and attacked the British ship despite the fact that it had crew members from all over the world - but not from Israel. The mistake in identification is probably explained by the fact that, four years ago, the ship had a connection to Israeli ownership.
"Another ship that was attacked by the Houthis, Unity Explorer, is also not Israeli and does not carry an Israeli flag but is owned by a British firm that includes Dan David Ungar, who lives in Israel and is the son of an Israeli shipping billionaire, as one of its officers. No Israeli crew members were known to be on board."
I'd be interested to learn of any clearer examples of completely arbitrary targeting of another ship in the Red Sea.
Of course the attacks are outrageous and illegal, but as far as I can see there's more method in Houthi madness than their critics and adversaries want to admit.
Good analysis