"What happens in Bakhmut could spell the end of the Ukraine war, either with a Ukrainian victory or a Russian win."
Ludicrous. There is absolutely no possibility of a 'Ukrainian victory'. They are totally outclassed and outnumbered, and are only precariously propped up by western inputs.
I don't think it is ludicrous at all. If the Ukrainians are totally outclassed and outnumbered, how come they keep hitting Russian positions? They are loaded up with Western equipment and have been trained by NATO. Victory is always situational: if it was not, the war would be forever.
The Ukrainians are losing men at a ratio of ten to one, and they are losing tanks etc at probably more like twenty to one. They have already lost most of their airforce, and their electricity grid is functioning only at the whim of Russia. The west has already run out of HE 155 mm shells and if any more tanks are contributed there won't be many left to defend the contributing countries, while Russia is producing shells and tanks at a huge rate. Possibly you still believe what you read in wester news media. If so, you will get a big surprise by early next year.
Thanks for your comment. The battlefield picture shows the Russians using active defense but not really attacking. I follow the war very carefully and do not rely on any single source for information. Furthermore, if it is not confirmed, I don't credit it. The 10 to 1 is a Russian claim. US documents show, prior to the offensive, it was hovering around 7 to 1. The Ukrainian tactic, supported by the US and UK, is to try and punch through "somewhere" in order to shape possible peace talks. My view is they will not succeed.
Yes. The Russian goal is not to take necessarily to take territory, (the Donbass regions have requested incorporation into Russia both in 2014 and last year when they were eventually accepted), although it may have to obtain its stated goals. These are de-nazification of the Ukrainian government, and the repudiation of accession to NATO including no US nuclear weapons.
Having read Stephen for several months now, one thing you can guarantee is that he does not simply rely on Western media or any other type of media. As he said, he relies on research that he can then confirm.
Yesterday, a RQ-4B Global Hawk w/call sign FORTE12 was over the Black Sea. Usually it skirts the Air Traffic Control space along the line between Simferopol and Turkey. This time it I watched it fly approximately 100km from the Russian coast, maybe 150km above Sochi, then it turned off its transponder. The last time a spy bird flew too close, a Russian jet peed on it and it ended up in the Black Sea. Its a very dangerous game, even if a Hawk isn't armed as a Reaper can be. A USN Poseidon just rolled in over Constanta, Romania and turned its transponder off. Neither of these things have been happening much recently; they seem more interested in Kaliningrad and Belarus these days, so I'm assuming they're up to something...
But its not just about Ukraine; this same kind of pushing the envelope is heating up in Syria, too - on both sides. Add to that some of the truly reckless naval aviation traffic I've seen over the straight of Hormuz (sp?), outright flying over Iranian land (as well as both sides playing steal-a-tanker) & we've got a storm cloud brewing. That's not even adding in the situation with the Chinese/Taiwan. I think the wider war is already in its beginning stages - and its in multiple locations.
As for Crimea....personally I think that the only way Ukraine and/or the US-UK (they want it for themselves, they could care less about Ukrainians) will ever "re-take" it from Russia is by bombing it completely off the face of the earth. The population doesn't seem to be too keen on being part of Ukraine again, either. I think if they actually try it, the Russians will have absolutely NONE of it & it will be on, 100%. I suspect that's why Kaliningrad/Suwalki gap seems to have their interest right now - maybe they are viewing it as low-hanging fruit to take "hostage".
I find it hard to imagine that at this point the Ukrainians have anything except western provided weapons and most of the other eastern European countries have already donated their Soviet stock, as far as I have read.
Very good assessment of the Global Hawk and the overall strategic situation. What concerns me most of all is just how reckless all this is. No one in Washington or the Pentagon can think that these actions are peaceful and not provocations. Let's see what happens next.
So, we now find the US/UK/NATO poking the bear in his den and I believe that Stephen is correct in stating that Russian unhappiness with direct attacks on their homeland from US/European weapons is inviting a wider war. Just like much of the US citizenry after the 9/11 attacks, sooner or later the Russian people are going to demand payback/blood and, in this case, aren't going to care that they may have invited the attacks via the Ukraine invasion. I think the Russians would most likely strike a staging area somewhere either close to the border of Ukraine or just over the border when a convoy of weapons is headed towards Ukraine. I also believe that Russia would be clever enough to hit a convoy where US/NATO service personnel would be involved and would therefore make it embarrassing or awkward for the US/NATO to protest when their soldiers were directly delivering arms/assisting in a direct attack against Russia. Furthermore, I think between what's actually happening over there and what we're being told by the President, Congress and the legacy media/Ukraine the trust of the American people in those institutions is at an all-time low and that only makes Russia's claims of self-defense that much harder to disprove. Oh, one more thing, how come every photo/video we're given by Ukraine of soldiers at the front or under attack has every soldier wearing a spotless uniform? Heck, I go to check out one of our construction sites on my day off and I still wind up with at least a couple of smudges/stains.
It remains an attritional war. Russia is in war production mode, the West is not. That is why Russia will win in 12+ months unless there is a Ukrainian breakthrough now.
China’s role and China-Russia collaboration should be in the equation at some point if not all, especially viewing from the Indo-Pacific and cross-Strait perspective!
....and demands for total compensation of all damages...We have seen this picture before...Germany after WW 1....and you can bet the Russians will come back or may even use a tactical nuke.... to prove they mean business. Russia is more in line with groups who have nukes or wants one(Iran). The current Ukraine “leader” despot with their secret service and military who want to expand the USA’s involvement by going deep into Russia must be thwarted...regime change and retirements are needed.
An excellent assessment of the situation in Ukraine. One thing is certain, Russia will not allow Ukraine to join NATO. The people in the western part of Ukraine have been enemies with Poland. They will never join Poland.
thanks stephen... you got the part about the pentagon / usa (and friends) lying... all the rest is speculation, but that part about the lying - you can take to the bank... stacked up with all the other lies, it is hard not to draw a conclusion of the intentions of usa led nato for at least the last 10 years.. they wanted this war and they got it.. it is on them not russia..
Thanks. I would prefer to call it analysis and not speculation. Analysis is based on what the actors appear to do or say. Anyway, that's how I was trained in strategic assessments.
that's fine stephen.. o 'get' what you are saying..
i am telling you what it looks like to me, but i appreciate how you'd like me to articulate it more how you see it.... appearances can be deceiving which is why i continue to believe much of the info in the public sphere is misleading or worse... i personally believe there is an important element of speculation to it all..
"What happens in Bakhmut could spell the end of the Ukraine war, either with a Ukrainian victory or a Russian win."
Ludicrous. There is absolutely no possibility of a 'Ukrainian victory'. They are totally outclassed and outnumbered, and are only precariously propped up by western inputs.
I don't think it is ludicrous at all. If the Ukrainians are totally outclassed and outnumbered, how come they keep hitting Russian positions? They are loaded up with Western equipment and have been trained by NATO. Victory is always situational: if it was not, the war would be forever.
The Ukrainians are losing men at a ratio of ten to one, and they are losing tanks etc at probably more like twenty to one. They have already lost most of their airforce, and their electricity grid is functioning only at the whim of Russia. The west has already run out of HE 155 mm shells and if any more tanks are contributed there won't be many left to defend the contributing countries, while Russia is producing shells and tanks at a huge rate. Possibly you still believe what you read in wester news media. If so, you will get a big surprise by early next year.
Thanks for your comment. The battlefield picture shows the Russians using active defense but not really attacking. I follow the war very carefully and do not rely on any single source for information. Furthermore, if it is not confirmed, I don't credit it. The 10 to 1 is a Russian claim. US documents show, prior to the offensive, it was hovering around 7 to 1. The Ukrainian tactic, supported by the US and UK, is to try and punch through "somewhere" in order to shape possible peace talks. My view is they will not succeed.
Yes. The Russian goal is not to take necessarily to take territory, (the Donbass regions have requested incorporation into Russia both in 2014 and last year when they were eventually accepted), although it may have to obtain its stated goals. These are de-nazification of the Ukrainian government, and the repudiation of accession to NATO including no US nuclear weapons.
Having read Stephen for several months now, one thing you can guarantee is that he does not simply rely on Western media or any other type of media. As he said, he relies on research that he can then confirm.
Yesterday, a RQ-4B Global Hawk w/call sign FORTE12 was over the Black Sea. Usually it skirts the Air Traffic Control space along the line between Simferopol and Turkey. This time it I watched it fly approximately 100km from the Russian coast, maybe 150km above Sochi, then it turned off its transponder. The last time a spy bird flew too close, a Russian jet peed on it and it ended up in the Black Sea. Its a very dangerous game, even if a Hawk isn't armed as a Reaper can be. A USN Poseidon just rolled in over Constanta, Romania and turned its transponder off. Neither of these things have been happening much recently; they seem more interested in Kaliningrad and Belarus these days, so I'm assuming they're up to something...
But its not just about Ukraine; this same kind of pushing the envelope is heating up in Syria, too - on both sides. Add to that some of the truly reckless naval aviation traffic I've seen over the straight of Hormuz (sp?), outright flying over Iranian land (as well as both sides playing steal-a-tanker) & we've got a storm cloud brewing. That's not even adding in the situation with the Chinese/Taiwan. I think the wider war is already in its beginning stages - and its in multiple locations.
As for Crimea....personally I think that the only way Ukraine and/or the US-UK (they want it for themselves, they could care less about Ukrainians) will ever "re-take" it from Russia is by bombing it completely off the face of the earth. The population doesn't seem to be too keen on being part of Ukraine again, either. I think if they actually try it, the Russians will have absolutely NONE of it & it will be on, 100%. I suspect that's why Kaliningrad/Suwalki gap seems to have their interest right now - maybe they are viewing it as low-hanging fruit to take "hostage".
I find it hard to imagine that at this point the Ukrainians have anything except western provided weapons and most of the other eastern European countries have already donated their Soviet stock, as far as I have read.
Very good assessment of the Global Hawk and the overall strategic situation. What concerns me most of all is just how reckless all this is. No one in Washington or the Pentagon can think that these actions are peaceful and not provocations. Let's see what happens next.
So, we now find the US/UK/NATO poking the bear in his den and I believe that Stephen is correct in stating that Russian unhappiness with direct attacks on their homeland from US/European weapons is inviting a wider war. Just like much of the US citizenry after the 9/11 attacks, sooner or later the Russian people are going to demand payback/blood and, in this case, aren't going to care that they may have invited the attacks via the Ukraine invasion. I think the Russians would most likely strike a staging area somewhere either close to the border of Ukraine or just over the border when a convoy of weapons is headed towards Ukraine. I also believe that Russia would be clever enough to hit a convoy where US/NATO service personnel would be involved and would therefore make it embarrassing or awkward for the US/NATO to protest when their soldiers were directly delivering arms/assisting in a direct attack against Russia. Furthermore, I think between what's actually happening over there and what we're being told by the President, Congress and the legacy media/Ukraine the trust of the American people in those institutions is at an all-time low and that only makes Russia's claims of self-defense that much harder to disprove. Oh, one more thing, how come every photo/video we're given by Ukraine of soldiers at the front or under attack has every soldier wearing a spotless uniform? Heck, I go to check out one of our construction sites on my day off and I still wind up with at least a couple of smudges/stains.
It seems you don't appreciate the importance of well tailored clean uniforms!
It remains an attritional war. Russia is in war production mode, the West is not. That is why Russia will win in 12+ months unless there is a Ukrainian breakthrough now.
Many excellent and great points!
China’s role and China-Russia collaboration should be in the equation at some point if not all, especially viewing from the Indo-Pacific and cross-Strait perspective!
Dear Vincent, I am planning a paper on China and the Taiwan issue. I appreciate your comments.
Regime change in Russia with humiliation and
....and demands for total compensation of all damages...We have seen this picture before...Germany after WW 1....and you can bet the Russians will come back or may even use a tactical nuke.... to prove they mean business. Russia is more in line with groups who have nukes or wants one(Iran). The current Ukraine “leader” despot with their secret service and military who want to expand the USA’s involvement by going deep into Russia must be thwarted...regime change and retirements are needed.
An excellent assessment of the situation in Ukraine. One thing is certain, Russia will not allow Ukraine to join NATO. The people in the western part of Ukraine have been enemies with Poland. They will never join Poland.
thanks stephen... you got the part about the pentagon / usa (and friends) lying... all the rest is speculation, but that part about the lying - you can take to the bank... stacked up with all the other lies, it is hard not to draw a conclusion of the intentions of usa led nato for at least the last 10 years.. they wanted this war and they got it.. it is on them not russia..
Thanks. I would prefer to call it analysis and not speculation. Analysis is based on what the actors appear to do or say. Anyway, that's how I was trained in strategic assessments.
that's fine stephen.. o 'get' what you are saying..
i am telling you what it looks like to me, but i appreciate how you'd like me to articulate it more how you see it.... appearances can be deceiving which is why i continue to believe much of the info in the public sphere is misleading or worse... i personally believe there is an important element of speculation to it all..