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It wasn't a retreat, it was a rout (there is plenty of video of this) with also a large prisoner haul (Russian channels talk about over 500 POW so far, and there are certainly a lot of videos of that too).

If the order to retreat could have been issued a few days earlier order could have probably been maintained and men's lives saved. One thing that has consistently struck me about this war of attrition is how careful the larger power is with their soldiers lives, and how careless the smaller power is with theirs. It's exactly the reverse of what you'd expect.

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“One thing that has consistently struck me about this war of attrition is how careful the larger power is with their soldiers lives, and how careless the smaller power is with theirs. It's exactly the reverse of what you'd expect.”

And the reverse of what Western propaganda tells us, which is that the “Orcs” commanders have no respect for the lives of their soldiers and throw them away willfully.

When you live in one reality, and your rulers live in a separate one of their own invention, that’s not a situation that can be sustained. Reality finds a way….

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author

please don't use the term "orcs' --it is intentionally a racist term used by the Ukrainians (originally based on Lord of the Rings' Orcs).

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I used the quotes to indicate that I was using the West’s insult for them. The racism is part of dismissing them as inferior warriors…who just threw Ukraines elite brigades out of Avdiivka and into a different hell.

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Indeed. It is amazing (to me) how the MediaZona KIA estimates have been dropping throughout the Avdiivka campaign. I think it bespeaks an almost American favoring of a minimum of infantry assaults and a maximum of high explosive. You would think that the press would discuss that at least occasionally.

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The press only repeats what it is told.

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Early casualties were high as the initial assault was on the high ground so as to prepare the battlefield. Taking high ground and using artillery to interdict supplies was the first stage. Once you hold those positions, casualties are reduced because you now have the advantage of fighting from cover on the high ground, as well as the ability to constrict enemy resupply.

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Nothing is permitted that does not support The Narrative. The CIA has gone to great lengths to convince us that the Russians are mindless “Orcs” whose only means of offensive action is the human wave attack. No amount of truth can be allowed to dislodge this narrative.

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Syrsky says his guys (apart from dead, wounded, POWs and early deserters) fell back as planned to prepared defensive lines.

Those lines must be very well camouflaged, as they don't appear on any recent satlellite imagery.

And Syrski replaced Zaluzhny because 'retreat was not an option'...

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it is all nonsense

typical blabber

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There are Ukrainian channels claiming that the money allocated to set up these defensive lines was stolen.

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Almost everything is stolen in Ukraine

Joseph Heller (who wrote Catch 22) describes it perfectly

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Simplicitus has video of Ukrainians at the newly prepared defensive positrons. Aka foxholes in the middle of a field. Big scandal that nobody prepared the fallback positions that were promised.

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from what understand there wasn't time to prepare new defensive positions ... but whatever the case, the Ukrainians are facing significant problems with the "new strategy" of pulling back to so-called defensive positions

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The eternal dilemma. Fallback positions built too early are a danger in themselves.

I remember in college people with difficult majors were told to consider a fallback plan if the first choice didn’t work out.

The common response was “if you plan to fall back, you will”.

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“The Russian Army continues to move forward, since no serious defense line of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been constructed west of Avdievka - Butusov “

“There are no words. The gap: here in Kiev the Supreme Commander-in-Chief says one thing, but at the front something completely different is happening. I want to say: beyond Avdeevka no field lines of fortifications have been built to this day. I saw our soldiers in holes in the middle of a field being attacked by Russian drones,” said Ukrainian military propagandist Butusov. No conclusions are drawn from previous failures.”

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Feb 19·edited Feb 19Liked by Stephen Bryen

It may not only be the army that's seething. There has been significant (though spotty) resistance to "military recruitment by abduction", with settlements rallying to protect their men from the meat-grinder. The Writing is on the Wall and everyone is reading the same message. Meanwhile the Conscription Law remains stalled for months in the Rada.

Probably no one can interpret the the AFU dire battlefield status than Zaluzhny himself. The Russian AF now flies support missions with impunity. At this point, close air-ground assault coordination makes Russian forces almost unstoppable. And note: Russia has not yet officially launched an Offensive, still remaining in a state of (Aggressive) Defense. However, forces are queuing in mass forces in several spots, with forces > than 100> in the Norrtheast section of the front.

If anyone could lead "negotiations" (such as they might be at this point) it would be Gen Zaluzhny as head of state in Kiev. Stay tuned.

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The conscription bill is not now stalled. It passed its first reading and likely will be affirmed in a second reading either this week or next, and Zelensky will sign it. It does not have the support of Zaluzhny, and the Rada itself was very reluctant to push it through, but they did under Zelensky's pressure. But now with the fall of Avdiivka things have changed, Zelensky says his priority is saving Ukrainian lives (while acting obvious in a different manner). I do think there is widespread discontent in the public sector, but if anything changes it will most likely be a revolt by the army.

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Feb 20·edited Feb 20

I hope the revolt will come soon because Russia will kill 500k untrained men rather easily. 2 weeks of training with no weapons and ammo doesn't make a soldier/army....

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The anger in the Ukranian military circles on handling Avdeevka is real... I have been reading their chats and outbursts... Sirky is generally called "Moskal Butcher" (referring to his Russian ethnicity) and Kotlovodec (from a combination of "cauldron" and "general" words) for his leadership in Debaltsevo, Bakhmut 1 (defense) and Bakhmut 2 ("counteroffensive")... Zaluzhniy is generally perceived like a more humane general that stood his ground against Zelensky, and his staunchly supported by Nazis like Azov...Interesting that Azov and RDK got thrown in to the forming cauldron and got annihilated... The moral in the Ukranian military is not high, Avdeevka was the best prepared/supplied/manned position in Donetsk..

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You describe the situation very well.

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The choice of an ethnic Russian to lead the army is entirely intentional, as Syrskii will not have a power base among the nationalists.

Anyway, a chimp can transmit orders from Washington, which is all that is needed to lead the Ukrainian military.

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One batch of thugs and thieves will remove and replace the other. The people who are left will continue to suffer. The Europeans and the US will pour in billions for “reconstruction” which will go on for decades, most of which be stolen to pay for condos in Switzerland and other expensive resorts around the world.

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I really don't think Ukraine will see much rebuilding for years. It will be a mess there for years. The only money to be made is from Western handouts and that's going to seriously be reduced. Soon

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Unfortunately this has been the common theme since the end of the USSR.

Even more unfortunately, in the current arrangement, it's expected there would be more to steal as long as they manage to keep the war going.

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Ukraine, which is so obsessed with its Bandera history, had once looked at the history in the run-up to the year 1939. She could have learned a lot. In the same way, the USA, its vassals and tributary countries (Zbigniew Brzeziński's - the only world power) have fallen into their own trap. One wonders how a self-proclaimed world power could not even really get so lost in Afghanistan, let alone in other foci of conflict. Obviously, they have stopped in history, because what we are experiencing in Ukraine is nothing else than at the end of the 2nd World War. The calls for the victory of Ukraine are getting louder and louder the closer the defeat is getting.

The USA/NATO and its prolitic arm the EU should slowly but surely come to their senses, but I lack the faith to install Ukraine into a corridor between the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union. The West lacks patience and, moreover, he cannot listen. In contrast, RF President Putin is a chess player and a martial artist, which includes patience, concentration and clarity to name just a few examples. If you follow his speeches since 2001 in front of the German Bundestag and listen carefully and do not interpret your own thoughts purely, you can follow his decisions exactly. Even today, he still favors a negotiated solution, but it seems that the Baerbock disease (German Foreign Minister) fell is more widespread among the Western political caste than it suggests.

The question is where does this all lead us? In the end, I assume that the West has fallen into a trap of the US financial oligarchy. Does anyone remember that Klaus Schwab's WEF was a CIA operation and how the said Schwab commented that he has most of the government members in the world under his agenda. One should take into account Young Global Leaders and the corresponding predecessor organization. In addition, you should also take a look at the family stories of V.D.Leyen, Baerboch and Schwab - as Mrs. Baerbock said, "Then your grandpa should have fought at the Oder in the winter of '45 - Battle for Seelower Heights." Now it became known that her grandfather was not only an officer of the Wehrmacht, but also an ardent admirer of Hitler. What conclusion can be drawn from this? Yes, it is now becoming increasingly clear to me that fascism never really went down.

In the same way, the question then arises: if ASOW are today falsely portrayed as defenders of the homeland, one could just as easily proclaim the DD associations of Hitler fascism as defenders. Especially since every year we can watch veterans marches in memory of the SS units in various countries in the Baltics and other Eastern Europe. But back to the USA, what significance does the USA have on the Allied side against Hitler's fascism? Bandera and Co. have made common cause with the SS units or do they now want to erase their crimes and pass them off as defense of the homeland? Instead of always rambling about Neuschwabenland, where Nazis supposedly waited for the end and are preparing for the day when they can rise again, we should take a closer look at the descendants among us.

Ultimately, a completely different fact comes into play in Ukraine. The current leadership under Zelensky will leave the country in the near future. What we then see is that a whole generation of Ukrainians no longer exists. How many Ukrainians have died so far? According to various reports, one must now expect between 500,000 and 1,000,000 million dead and injured, where the injured are people who will be dependent on help in the long term. Blackroch Vanguard and Co. have bought up large areas or does anyone believe that the weapons and dollars were given to the West as a gift, the bill will be settled at the end or as the saying goes, the Ukrainians have done the math without the landlord and will pay bitterly for it .

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But I saw a video of Nancy Pelosi blowing Zelensky a kiss in Munich.

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A kiss of death?

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The Perfect Kiss is the kiss of death.

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Nothing in Syrsky's order to retreat made any sense. Thank you for offering these insights which confirm many of my own suspicions regarding the broader context in which the order to retreat was issued, Your analysis has been and continues to be very helpful.

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Stephen, haven't you been reading the Western press?

As the Avdiivka garrison was cut off, Syrsky announced that 'Everything was going to plan'.

Then lead actor Zelensky announced 'Russia was losing'.

Keep up! Drink some NATO Kool Aid.

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author

I ran out of Martinis.

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I now think of the Butcher of Bakhmut as Ukraine's Comical Alex.

And I imagine his boss sitting in his office at the palace with mounds of coke on the table, like Al Pacino in the closing scene of Scarface.

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The French laugh at a cuckold, the English laugh at a foreigner and the Americans laugh at a sucker. Poor Ukraine is that sucker, a lamb sacrificed to preserve “the rules based order”, but this is no laughing matter. The political Gnosticism of the liberal imperium is deadly: if they have a promise to help you, run for your life.

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The Russians are making much faster progress in territorial gains now. The big change is achieving air superiority allowing the use of relatively cheap FAB glide bomb kits. Even with artillery and rocket superiority, nothing makes a difference as heavy ordinance from aircraft. Though Ukraine is trying to compete with drones, it just isn’t enough compared to the tonnage advantage the Russians have.

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A revolt in the Ukrainian army is long overdue.

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When the Ukrainian troops realize they are fighting for a lost cause and have no faith in their government, we will see incidents that are very eerily similar to those that took place in the Vietnam war. Outright rejection and refusal to advance against the enemy. Killing their own officers that put them in harm’s way. In 1971 two platoons from Bravo Company, 1st Squadron, 1st Cavalry Regiment refused orders to retrieve a downed helicopter and damaged vehicles on Route 9 between Lang Vei and the Laos border. This action occurred during the most idiotic plan of the war. To invade Laos with the South Vietnamese forces supported by American air power. Knowing at the time the North Vietnamese military had been reinforcing the Ho Chi Minh trail for years. Sam missiles, artillery, 51 caliber machine guns. American helicopters were destroyed at the highest level ever reached for the whole war. This action plan called Lam Son II, you got that right 2 because the 1st failed. This is what American & NATO advisers will offer up to the Ukrainian military that has no hope of success. Whether a coup takes place to remove Z is inconsequential unless the new leadership stops the war.

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There were many dead 2nd Lieutenants (90 day wonders) in WW2 who met similar fates. It is not an unknown phenomena.

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That may very well be true but American forces did not feel the war was a lost cause in WWII. My point is in Vietnam as Ukraine, when the men fighting come to the realization that to carry on is senseless, and the leadership has not come to that conclusion.

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The French army in 1917. Paths of Glory.

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“Fragging” your CO

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Thank you for information and your work getting news to us.

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Fundamentally, the dream of Ukrainian's is to get an EU passport and leave Ukraine.

Getting sent into a meat grinder doesn't achieve that dream. At some point they will revolt.

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or they will choose Klitshko ... but it doesn't matter anyway ... the west is fascist and Nazi, and they will sacrifice their followers, for the sake of killing others ... this ideological hatred and killing must end!

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Feb 19·edited Feb 19

Vicky flew in to supervise thle Zelensky-Budanov Army putsch before the Last Stand at Avdiivka - her closing role as Deputy at State before being replaced by China hawk Kurt Campbell on 12 February.

Ironic, given her first starring role installing proxies in the Kaganate of Nulandia in 2014.

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seems her visit was a total flop

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In dramatic terms it was a fitting close to her performance.

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maybe, but she has not gone away

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I was about to uncork a bottle of champagne when I realized that her actual position is Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, and was only filling in as acting Deputy Secretary of State pending Campbell's appointment. Like you said, she ain't going anywhere. Still plenty of mischief to do!

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Seems like she never does... quite a survivor from the Cheney years

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