I don't see the tactics as particularly new. I see the merit in the attack as being (1) diversionary pressure to relieve the main Donbass front (2) possibly seize the nuclear plant. Either would be beneficial, both would be great. However any diversion will be transitory due to superior Russian numbers. Any territory gains short of the p…
I don't see the tactics as particularly new. I see the merit in the attack as being (1) diversionary pressure to relieve the main Donbass front (2) possibly seize the nuclear plant. Either would be beneficial, both would be great. However any diversion will be transitory due to superior Russian numbers. Any territory gains short of the power plant will give zero leverage. The gas site is also a red herring - Ukraine has the whole length of the pipeline they could cut, there is no need to cut it in Russia. Gaining the nuclear plant would be a good bargaining chip, but I think the window to do that has closed or is nearly closed.
the tactics are new for the Ukrainians. The goal is not the nuclear plant. That plant would not serve as a bargaining chip because it will arouse big time animosity in Europe. I think the operation is aimed at holding territory in Russia and that is the bargaining chip. (FYI, the Ukrainians have wanted to hit nuclear plants, even on their own territory, raising serious anger in NATO. It is reckless in the extreme. It is the stuff the dangerous GRU head Bogdanov dreams about.)
I don't see why Russia would care less about some villages that they will inevitably get back, continuing to bleed the AFU as they do so. Time is on Russia's side, and very much not on Ukraine's side. Anything short of the nuclear plant gives no leverage.
If Ukies occupied the nuclear plant it would be hard to dislodge them. Russians couldn't use artillery, glide bombs, or other high explosives. It would be like that Mariupol factory only much more difficult because of the proximity of radioactive material.
In terms of the newness of tactics, what is new? A higher density (in time and space) of FPV drones? Concentrating (but also expending) lots of AFVs? That's the most I see. EW, psyops, DDos, all of these things have been used before. Admittedly it's a well planned operation that uses all these tactics at once and which achieved surprise. I am not minimising that. I just am not seeing much here that is new. What are you seeing?
Trying to take the nuclear plant is of a piece with them previously trying to take nuclear weapon storage sites and directly attacking strategic early warning facilities. Yes it is dangerous but Ukraine has prior form for dangerous escalation.
I don't see the tactics as particularly new. I see the merit in the attack as being (1) diversionary pressure to relieve the main Donbass front (2) possibly seize the nuclear plant. Either would be beneficial, both would be great. However any diversion will be transitory due to superior Russian numbers. Any territory gains short of the power plant will give zero leverage. The gas site is also a red herring - Ukraine has the whole length of the pipeline they could cut, there is no need to cut it in Russia. Gaining the nuclear plant would be a good bargaining chip, but I think the window to do that has closed or is nearly closed.
the tactics are new for the Ukrainians. The goal is not the nuclear plant. That plant would not serve as a bargaining chip because it will arouse big time animosity in Europe. I think the operation is aimed at holding territory in Russia and that is the bargaining chip. (FYI, the Ukrainians have wanted to hit nuclear plants, even on their own territory, raising serious anger in NATO. It is reckless in the extreme. It is the stuff the dangerous GRU head Bogdanov dreams about.)
I don't see why Russia would care less about some villages that they will inevitably get back, continuing to bleed the AFU as they do so. Time is on Russia's side, and very much not on Ukraine's side. Anything short of the nuclear plant gives no leverage.
GRU Bogdanov? GUR Budanov...
If Ukies occupied the nuclear plant it would be hard to dislodge them. Russians couldn't use artillery, glide bombs, or other high explosives. It would be like that Mariupol factory only much more difficult because of the proximity of radioactive material.
In terms of the newness of tactics, what is new? A higher density (in time and space) of FPV drones? Concentrating (but also expending) lots of AFVs? That's the most I see. EW, psyops, DDos, all of these things have been used before. Admittedly it's a well planned operation that uses all these tactics at once and which achieved surprise. I am not minimising that. I just am not seeing much here that is new. What are you seeing?
Trying to take the nuclear plant is of a piece with them previously trying to take nuclear weapon storage sites and directly attacking strategic early warning facilities. Yes it is dangerous but Ukraine has prior form for dangerous escalation.