Kursk did exactly what it was intended to do which is change the narrative from Ukrainian defeat to Russian incompetence, with victory coming if we can just get one more intervention, one more aid package, one no-fly zone.
They sucked in how many Ukrainian brigades so they could destroy them. It's not about territory, it's about eliminating the Ukrainian army as an effective fighting force.
We have no proof it was deliberately ignored. The fact their juicy pre-attack troop concentrations were not attacked with missiles suggests it was missed.
Bottom line is this was an innovative move by the Ukies/NATO and an embarrassment for Russia.
Theoretically this _could_ be a very smart move by the Russians, luring the best Ukie units into a trap. But the chaotic and unprepared response from the Russians suggests they weren't prepared for springing some trap. Similarly there is no breakthrough on any other part of the front trying to profit from the best Ukie units being absent.
That's the theory: In both cases it was deliberate, with foreknowledge of the coming attack. Israel used the Palestinian attack to move the people to support ethnic cleansing in Gaza. We shall see what Russia's leaders push their people to support now.
The gargantuan fuckup was MANUFACTURED by the Obama-Biden Administration :
"An explosive New York Times exposé by Adam Entous and Michael Schwirtz sheds light on major developments preceding the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. According to the report, the Ukrainian government entered into a wide-ranging partnership with the CIA against Russia. This cooperation, which involved the establishment of as many as 12 secret CIA “forward operating bases” along Ukraine’s border with Russia, began not with Russia’s 2022 invasion, but just over 10 years ago.
Within days of the February 2014 Euromaidan Revolution that culminated with the ouster of President Viktor Yanukovych and ushered in a firmly pro-Western government, the newly appointed head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, reportedly proposed a “three-way partnership” with the CIA and MI6, the UK’s foreign intelligence service. Ukrainian security officials gradually proved their value to the U.S. by feeding the CIA intelligence on Russia, including “secret documents about the Russian Navy,” leading to the establishment of CIA bases in Ukraine to coordinate activities against Russia and various training programs for Ukrainian commandos and other elite units."
You know the CIA and its Mockingbird Media aka the SEE BS Network keep telling us that the Vlad is a madman.
If that's true , what are we poking the Russian bear?
Luckily , the opposite is true . He is cool, calm and collected.
After Obama's CIA invaded Ukraine in December 2013 , he calmly reminded the EU and the West for 8 - EIGHT LONG YEARS - that the Minsk agreement required Ukraine to be a NEUTRAL BUFFER ZONE
We have Victoria Nuland on tape stating "FUCK THE MINSK I and II Agreements - the US is not a signatory"
EVERYONE - but the CIA and Mitch McConnell's RINO warmonger-neocrazy squad understand that winning a nuclear WW3 would be a pyrrhic victory.
It appears that the brain dead sons of bitches are OK losing 1/2 the US population.
I don't see the tactics as particularly new. I see the merit in the attack as being (1) diversionary pressure to relieve the main Donbass front (2) possibly seize the nuclear plant. Either would be beneficial, both would be great. However any diversion will be transitory due to superior Russian numbers. Any territory gains short of the power plant will give zero leverage. The gas site is also a red herring - Ukraine has the whole length of the pipeline they could cut, there is no need to cut it in Russia. Gaining the nuclear plant would be a good bargaining chip, but I think the window to do that has closed or is nearly closed.
the tactics are new for the Ukrainians. The goal is not the nuclear plant. That plant would not serve as a bargaining chip because it will arouse big time animosity in Europe. I think the operation is aimed at holding territory in Russia and that is the bargaining chip. (FYI, the Ukrainians have wanted to hit nuclear plants, even on their own territory, raising serious anger in NATO. It is reckless in the extreme. It is the stuff the dangerous GRU head Bogdanov dreams about.)
I don't see why Russia would care less about some villages that they will inevitably get back, continuing to bleed the AFU as they do so. Time is on Russia's side, and very much not on Ukraine's side. Anything short of the nuclear plant gives no leverage.
If Ukies occupied the nuclear plant it would be hard to dislodge them. Russians couldn't use artillery, glide bombs, or other high explosives. It would be like that Mariupol factory only much more difficult because of the proximity of radioactive material.
In terms of the newness of tactics, what is new? A higher density (in time and space) of FPV drones? Concentrating (but also expending) lots of AFVs? That's the most I see. EW, psyops, DDos, all of these things have been used before. Admittedly it's a well planned operation that uses all these tactics at once and which achieved surprise. I am not minimising that. I just am not seeing much here that is new. What are you seeing?
Trying to take the nuclear plant is of a piece with them previously trying to take nuclear weapon storage sites and directly attacking strategic early warning facilities. Yes it is dangerous but Ukraine has prior form for dangerous escalation.
And we are to think all the Ukraine buildup went completely unrecognized by the Russians before the attempt to go into Russian territory….if the intel folks in Russia missed this they could be in a Putin prison but we have heard no such action. This is no different than what the Germans thought would be a success when they went into the same area in WW2….and lost greatly much of their army in the loss. This is but a desperation maneuver and massive upcoming loss of people, vehicles and our tax dollars….They think it will push Putin to push back his desire for territory which he believes should be part of Russia. NATO and the USA created this conflict…they goated the Russian attack to create this conflict to break Russia of their Govt construct which the globalist desired to destroy.
I am sorry but where is this doom and gloom coming from? Ukraine advanced 20km into Russia, a 30min tank ride and everyone is losing their shit. Flatland is difficult to defend, just look at WW2 and the German Blitzktieg. It's the reason the Soviet Union created satellite states as a buffer zone, who unfortunatly, were turned communist. So, why are we saying Russia is in deep trouble if the advance has already stalled and was only 25km deep?
One could argue Russia is orchestrating a Maskirovka. Luring more Ukrainian troops in by appearing weak and killing them all. I don't see Ukraine gaining anything here. If NATO wants to test some maneuvers, good for them. We all know they don't care about the Ukrainian lives.
Parti, you are both right and wrong. You know what you are right about without me, but I can tell you where you may be wrong based on the look from inside Russia. The flash advance was mulled in RU media days in advance, however, border guards had not received Plan B with withdrawing to a fortified positions, they tried to take the battle where they were, right on the border line. Border guards in Russia are no longer part of the Army, they are more like SWAT at best in terms of their weapons. On the auxiliary posts at the border patrols the regular conscripts are serving, the young guys who are mobilized for the Nat Service in a usual way. They were not replaced by Army personnel. Border Guards + Conscripts are clearly no match to the army. That all resulted in capturing about 50 people. Next, there is indiscriminate killing of civilians on the roads by UA diversionary groups. They hide where they can and shoot at the traffic on the roads which is mostly people who are trying to evacuate. There are already obituaries circulating on the net. Villages are also shelled and most of the houses in villages are in the bad way, but that is something to be expected. Also, there were no Plan B for the Army also, as it looks like - it seems that no pre-existing Table of Equipment and Personnel existed as MOD really scrambled to find the units to be sent to the border, some of them took more than 24 hrs to arrive. No attempt to use MI-26, those elephantine cargo helicopters were made, however, they are known to be used to rapidly deploy troops - like in a similar debacle in Kharkov oblast in 2022. That all had created the confluence of the feelings - panic, confusion, anger which by now had subsided in a general consternation and determination, but so much could have been avoided and prevented. Where you are absolutely right - in any case this operation would not fail to penetrate the border and RU territory for the reasons you have specified. Thank you.
In all seriousness, why would anyone want to avoid what is happening now? Ukraine commit a lot of troops, some of its best I keep reading. The whole thing will turn out to be a waste of equipment and man power. If I were Russian, I'd be happy about what is going on ask Ukraine to keep sending reinforcements.
Quite a bit of the doom and gloom will be coming from Ukrainian psyops, guaranteed. Some will be coming from those who back Russia but tend to panic at any reversal. Some comes from those that, erroneously, believe that major conflicts only flow in one direction. And some comes from people who just love to criticize, despite being 10,000 km away from the action.
Could Russia be luring Ukrainian soldiers to their doom in a futile assault on Kursk? Yes, that could be the case. The Russian command has made no secret of their strategy to inexorably grind down the Ukrainian forces. What better way to do so, than if elite (what's left of them) Ukrainian forces come out into the open, in Russian territory no less, and make targets of themselves. This isn't me saying that's what's happening, just that it could be. At a minimum it's a manoeuvre the Russians, as professional military strategists, would be bound to consider.
I will write it again, people underestimate how large both countries are. Protecting the entire border is impossible or will demand enormous resources. With a concentrated force you can always punch through somewhere. Only at what cost? Russia could do that but doesn't, the losses in modern combat are too high. It can be smarter to react with prepared forces to contain such incursions. Does it really change anything? Many in the west still don't understand it's not a territorial war but one of attrition. Being on Ukrainian or Russian soil, that makes no difference. All numbers are in favour of Russia, if Ukraine can't hold their own soil what makes it that they can hold Russian territory? And how realistic is it for logistics?
Why would Ukraine invade Kursk? I can only guess. I see it as a last stand, a desperate move to achieve NATO interference. First they want to create the illusion of victory. Immediately Matthew Miller announced more weapons for Ukraine. Keep the money flowing.
After that and this moral boost it would make sense to lower conscription age to 18. See, we can defeat Russia, all we need is more weapons and troops.
Third, to get a response from Russia. Think a tactical nuke as retaliation. Or striking NATO territory, warehouses, weapon factories, so NATO will enter the war. Ukraine has been trying that for a while now. As always, Russia acts calculated. So far no big retaliation happened, but it will.
Red lines: I hear the west cheering over crossing Russia's red lines without consequences. I don't agree with that. Remember when Ukrainians could turn on a light bulb and heat their homes? Or that Russia receives weapons from Iran and North Korea?
The unwritten rules no longer apply. The west always thinks short term, Russia and China long term. After this war, the war will not end. Russia will arm all NATO enemies with advanced weapons. That was an unwritten rule, now with NATO tanks on Russian soil the game changed. Just think about it, over 800 foreign military bases to protect, with enemies having advanced weapons. We know the west shines in double standards but you can't cry anymore if Russian weapons fall on your head. I think it was a very stupid move.
That gas station is interesting. If they blow it up and the USA is behind this attack, then it's another attack on EU critical infrastructure. I feel so much shame for living under such weak fools that no one elected.
Mercouris (Duran) reports that the Russians had actively cleared the mines from their side because they were preparing their own attack in that sector. That's also why they have significant forces in the area. These forces were held back 25km or so from the border so as not to offer free targets to AFU artillery. This makes sense. Regardless, the AFU achieved at least tactical surprise and it looks like an error by Russia. On a bad day they could have lost the nuke plant and that would be difficult to reclaim safely, given the proximity to the city of Kursk.
Interesting but there were reports today that a number of Ukrainians armored vehicles were blown up by mines. I agree it was a blunder (or error) by the Russians and I think there will be consequences for Gerasimov, but not right now. The nuke plant is too far away to have been a real target.
Yeah agreed it would be a stretch even for wheeled vehicles on unopposed roads. Maybe it's just pure gesture for the US/NATO audience? It's certainly an embarrassment for Putin, so if it had no other value, it has that value.
The purpose was IMO same as many other borderline suicidal operations we've seen in the past two years - to *prevent* any negotiation. (because, hmm, the US has pressing obligations elsewhere in the world, perhaps?). Prevention Accomplished.
Since this article was written, the geniuses in Kiev also (and not for the first time) directly attacked the ZNPP nuclear power plant in Russian territory in the town of Energodar. Just to drive home the point, that they're willing to do anything to make trouble, regardless to the future cost to themselves, and the US will still look the other way when they do so. It ends of course with the forcible disconnection of Ukraine's remaining electric system, and consequent depopulation, as was sadly predicted a while ago already.
The Sudzha Gas Metering station is on the Brotherhood pipeline, which flows through Ukraine. There is no need for the Ukrainians to go to Russia to stop the flow of gas, they can just as well do it in Ukraine.
One of the very craziest aspects of this crazy war is that Rissia is still paying Ukraine transit fees for gas still sent to Europe through that pipeline (after Ukraine blew up Nordstream and tried to blow up the southern pipeline, and after the Allies supposedly ended imports of Russian gas).
As I remarked in 2022, the Allies didn't pay Hitler for supplies in money that was then used to help the war effort against them.
I really fail to understand how western media never mention this bizarre irony.
On all counts, it achieved nothing. Was there anything significant in reserve to exploit it? There is no bargaining position for Ukraine. There is only more needless deaths and destruction the longer Ukraine/West holds out.
This incursion reminds me of the Battle of the Bulge in WW II. Allied command was caught by surprise, yet managed to regroup, counterattack, and erased the salient. The Russians still have vastly more combat power than the Ukrainians. I expect them to do the same.
As I have pointed out in a different response, it is not a great analogy. The Bulge was an attempt by the Nazis to split the Allied armies and drive all the way to Antwerp, knocking out the vital supply line for the US and UK. I think the Ukrainian operation is different in that it is intended to hold Russian territory as a bargaining chip (as my article explains). The big question is what price Ukraine is willing to pay and how long they can hold on. That differentiates it from the Bulge as the Ukrainian move is tactical and political, the Nazi push was strategic and military. (Having two uncles at the Bulge it is something that our family remembers well.) I do grant you there is one similarity: it is that the Ukrainians, like the Nazis, are in desperate shape.
Putin has already stated the conditions for peace talk: withdrawal from the new Russian territories. Accepting peace talks because of the incursion would look like defeat, probably entirely unacceptable to Putin.
Stephen, thanks for the update - one thing you got wrong Sudzha Gasprom Gas Metering Station is sitting right on the border line between RUS and UA, about 500 meters from the border, so its capture was an inevitable low-hanging fruit
One of the interesting features is that all the best people were telling us that the Age of Maneuver Warfare was over. Intelligence gathering was now so intense and so fast-paced that any attempt to mass forces for an attack would be identified and those concentrated forces easily destroyed. Hence the return to WWI trench warfare tactics.
And yet, here is little Ukraine (with a lot of NATO help) staging a large-scale fast-moving attack! And it is not as if the militaries of either the Ukraine or NATO have earned much respect in the last few years. Very strange!
As to the future -- if the Ukrainians can do this once, what is to stop them from doing it again somewhere else on that long front line? And if the Ukrainians can do modest-sized "Big Arrow" attacks, what is stopping the Russians from doing something similar?
"The [Sudzha Gas Metering] station, located on the Russia-Ukraine border several kilometers from the Russian town of Sudzha, handles all gas flowing from Russia to Europe. The station is located about 5 miles inside Russia's border with Ukraine. Ukraine claims to now control the station and there is speculation that Ukraine may decide to blow it up. If that happens then Europe will have to depend on LNG exports from the United States. ... If they blow it up, then it becomes an economic issue for Russia and Europe."
"Europe will have to depend on LNG exports from the United States" And this is an issue for the USA how?
Kursk did exactly what it was intended to do which is change the narrative from Ukrainian defeat to Russian incompetence, with victory coming if we can just get one more intervention, one more aid package, one no-fly zone.
I don't think it was incompetence. The Russian command ignored the threat.
Ok, they let Ukraine score an easy propaganda victory and made themselves look stupid.
Sounds pretty incompetent.
They sucked in how many Ukrainian brigades so they could destroy them. It's not about territory, it's about eliminating the Ukrainian army as an effective fighting force.
If they were on the ball, they could have destroyed them without the "sucking in".
It's just cope, I am sorry to say.
No they couldn't. In this new age of drone warfare, dispersal of forces is becoming routine.
I said more in this reply:
https://weapons.substack.com/p/the-kursk-gamble/comment/64986369
So they can't disperse right now, lol.
Isn't ignoring a threat incompetence?
Ignoring is a deliberate act, missing is not.
We have no proof it was deliberately ignored. The fact their juicy pre-attack troop concentrations were not attacked with missiles suggests it was missed.
Bottom line is this was an innovative move by the Ukies/NATO and an embarrassment for Russia.
Your last sentence is probably exactly what the Russians want you to believe, Putin being an accomplished practitioner of judo.
Theoretically this _could_ be a very smart move by the Russians, luring the best Ukie units into a trap. But the chaotic and unprepared response from the Russians suggests they weren't prepared for springing some trap. Similarly there is no breakthrough on any other part of the front trying to profit from the best Ukie units being absent.
Sometimes a fuckup is just a fuckup.
Reacting to every threat would be incompetent. There are countless threats, many of which are just diversions meant to manipulate.
Would NATO miss Russia responding with tactical nukes?
Are you saying the Russians did the same thing in Kursk that the IDF did on 10/7?
Geez, I thought you were kidding, but I guess not.
I'm just as serious as Netanyahu is.
That's the theory: In both cases it was deliberate, with foreknowledge of the coming attack. Israel used the Palestinian attack to move the people to support ethnic cleansing in Gaza. We shall see what Russia's leaders push their people to support now.
There is no ethnic cleaning in Gaza.
It is just standard genocide, like the Holocaust and the Holodomor.
Just like Dick Cheney staged 9/11 to move Americans to attack Iraq, killing a million innocent unarmed non-combatants.
Russian missile destroys Ukrainian command post at Kursk – MOD (VIDEO)
https://www.rt.com/russia/602423-russia-destroy-ukraine-command-post/
Good. Glad Russia is getting something out of this fuckup.
The gargantuan fuckup was MANUFACTURED by the Obama-Biden Administration :
"An explosive New York Times exposé by Adam Entous and Michael Schwirtz sheds light on major developments preceding the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. According to the report, the Ukrainian government entered into a wide-ranging partnership with the CIA against Russia. This cooperation, which involved the establishment of as many as 12 secret CIA “forward operating bases” along Ukraine’s border with Russia, began not with Russia’s 2022 invasion, but just over 10 years ago.
Within days of the February 2014 Euromaidan Revolution that culminated with the ouster of President Viktor Yanukovych and ushered in a firmly pro-Western government, the newly appointed head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, reportedly proposed a “three-way partnership” with the CIA and MI6, the UK’s foreign intelligence service. Ukrainian security officials gradually proved their value to the U.S. by feeding the CIA intelligence on Russia, including “secret documents about the Russian Navy,” leading to the establishment of CIA bases in Ukraine to coordinate activities against Russia and various training programs for Ukrainian commandos and other elite units."
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/cia-ukraine-russia/
Of course the CIA and US military were involved, hitting Russia with impunity and hiding behind Ukrainian cutouts.
What does Russia propose to do about it?
You know the CIA and its Mockingbird Media aka the SEE BS Network keep telling us that the Vlad is a madman.
If that's true , what are we poking the Russian bear?
Luckily , the opposite is true . He is cool, calm and collected.
After Obama's CIA invaded Ukraine in December 2013 , he calmly reminded the EU and the West for 8 - EIGHT LONG YEARS - that the Minsk agreement required Ukraine to be a NEUTRAL BUFFER ZONE
We have Victoria Nuland on tape stating "FUCK THE MINSK I and II Agreements - the US is not a signatory"
EVERYONE - but the CIA and Mitch McConnell's RINO warmonger-neocrazy squad understand that winning a nuclear WW3 would be a pyrrhic victory.
It appears that the brain dead sons of bitches are OK losing 1/2 the US population.
Sad.
It was obvious from the outset that Minsk and Minsk-2 were shams.
That doesn't mean that NATO are stupid. Evil, granted, but not stupid.
imagine the narrative in a week when RF destroys best and last Ukrainian brigades…. it is not over, UA has to run back home or try to keep position
Only successful defence could produce a positive narrative
How likely?
We've been hearing that one for how many years, now?
Do not think UA will be able to keep position in Russia, against a serious counterattack.
RF will have to either fortify the whole length of border or attack across non fortified parts
I don't see the tactics as particularly new. I see the merit in the attack as being (1) diversionary pressure to relieve the main Donbass front (2) possibly seize the nuclear plant. Either would be beneficial, both would be great. However any diversion will be transitory due to superior Russian numbers. Any territory gains short of the power plant will give zero leverage. The gas site is also a red herring - Ukraine has the whole length of the pipeline they could cut, there is no need to cut it in Russia. Gaining the nuclear plant would be a good bargaining chip, but I think the window to do that has closed or is nearly closed.
the tactics are new for the Ukrainians. The goal is not the nuclear plant. That plant would not serve as a bargaining chip because it will arouse big time animosity in Europe. I think the operation is aimed at holding territory in Russia and that is the bargaining chip. (FYI, the Ukrainians have wanted to hit nuclear plants, even on their own territory, raising serious anger in NATO. It is reckless in the extreme. It is the stuff the dangerous GRU head Bogdanov dreams about.)
I don't see why Russia would care less about some villages that they will inevitably get back, continuing to bleed the AFU as they do so. Time is on Russia's side, and very much not on Ukraine's side. Anything short of the nuclear plant gives no leverage.
GRU Bogdanov? GUR Budanov...
If Ukies occupied the nuclear plant it would be hard to dislodge them. Russians couldn't use artillery, glide bombs, or other high explosives. It would be like that Mariupol factory only much more difficult because of the proximity of radioactive material.
In terms of the newness of tactics, what is new? A higher density (in time and space) of FPV drones? Concentrating (but also expending) lots of AFVs? That's the most I see. EW, psyops, DDos, all of these things have been used before. Admittedly it's a well planned operation that uses all these tactics at once and which achieved surprise. I am not minimising that. I just am not seeing much here that is new. What are you seeing?
Trying to take the nuclear plant is of a piece with them previously trying to take nuclear weapon storage sites and directly attacking strategic early warning facilities. Yes it is dangerous but Ukraine has prior form for dangerous escalation.
I should have said first of all, thanks for bringing us this Stephen. Very useful and we'll thought out, as always.
And we are to think all the Ukraine buildup went completely unrecognized by the Russians before the attempt to go into Russian territory….if the intel folks in Russia missed this they could be in a Putin prison but we have heard no such action. This is no different than what the Germans thought would be a success when they went into the same area in WW2….and lost greatly much of their army in the loss. This is but a desperation maneuver and massive upcoming loss of people, vehicles and our tax dollars….They think it will push Putin to push back his desire for territory which he believes should be part of Russia. NATO and the USA created this conflict…they goated the Russian attack to create this conflict to break Russia of their Govt construct which the globalist desired to destroy.
They did not miss the intel, they discounted it.
Does the RF MOD have the same problem Israel did, ignoring solid intel prior to Oct. 7th?
I am sorry but where is this doom and gloom coming from? Ukraine advanced 20km into Russia, a 30min tank ride and everyone is losing their shit. Flatland is difficult to defend, just look at WW2 and the German Blitzktieg. It's the reason the Soviet Union created satellite states as a buffer zone, who unfortunatly, were turned communist. So, why are we saying Russia is in deep trouble if the advance has already stalled and was only 25km deep?
One could argue Russia is orchestrating a Maskirovka. Luring more Ukrainian troops in by appearing weak and killing them all. I don't see Ukraine gaining anything here. If NATO wants to test some maneuvers, good for them. We all know they don't care about the Ukrainian lives.
Parti, you are both right and wrong. You know what you are right about without me, but I can tell you where you may be wrong based on the look from inside Russia. The flash advance was mulled in RU media days in advance, however, border guards had not received Plan B with withdrawing to a fortified positions, they tried to take the battle where they were, right on the border line. Border guards in Russia are no longer part of the Army, they are more like SWAT at best in terms of their weapons. On the auxiliary posts at the border patrols the regular conscripts are serving, the young guys who are mobilized for the Nat Service in a usual way. They were not replaced by Army personnel. Border Guards + Conscripts are clearly no match to the army. That all resulted in capturing about 50 people. Next, there is indiscriminate killing of civilians on the roads by UA diversionary groups. They hide where they can and shoot at the traffic on the roads which is mostly people who are trying to evacuate. There are already obituaries circulating on the net. Villages are also shelled and most of the houses in villages are in the bad way, but that is something to be expected. Also, there were no Plan B for the Army also, as it looks like - it seems that no pre-existing Table of Equipment and Personnel existed as MOD really scrambled to find the units to be sent to the border, some of them took more than 24 hrs to arrive. No attempt to use MI-26, those elephantine cargo helicopters were made, however, they are known to be used to rapidly deploy troops - like in a similar debacle in Kharkov oblast in 2022. That all had created the confluence of the feelings - panic, confusion, anger which by now had subsided in a general consternation and determination, but so much could have been avoided and prevented. Where you are absolutely right - in any case this operation would not fail to penetrate the border and RU territory for the reasons you have specified. Thank you.
In all seriousness, why would anyone want to avoid what is happening now? Ukraine commit a lot of troops, some of its best I keep reading. The whole thing will turn out to be a waste of equipment and man power. If I were Russian, I'd be happy about what is going on ask Ukraine to keep sending reinforcements.
Quite a bit of the doom and gloom will be coming from Ukrainian psyops, guaranteed. Some will be coming from those who back Russia but tend to panic at any reversal. Some comes from those that, erroneously, believe that major conflicts only flow in one direction. And some comes from people who just love to criticize, despite being 10,000 km away from the action.
Could Russia be luring Ukrainian soldiers to their doom in a futile assault on Kursk? Yes, that could be the case. The Russian command has made no secret of their strategy to inexorably grind down the Ukrainian forces. What better way to do so, than if elite (what's left of them) Ukrainian forces come out into the open, in Russian territory no less, and make targets of themselves. This isn't me saying that's what's happening, just that it could be. At a minimum it's a manoeuvre the Russians, as professional military strategists, would be bound to consider.
I will write it again, people underestimate how large both countries are. Protecting the entire border is impossible or will demand enormous resources. With a concentrated force you can always punch through somewhere. Only at what cost? Russia could do that but doesn't, the losses in modern combat are too high. It can be smarter to react with prepared forces to contain such incursions. Does it really change anything? Many in the west still don't understand it's not a territorial war but one of attrition. Being on Ukrainian or Russian soil, that makes no difference. All numbers are in favour of Russia, if Ukraine can't hold their own soil what makes it that they can hold Russian territory? And how realistic is it for logistics?
Why would Ukraine invade Kursk? I can only guess. I see it as a last stand, a desperate move to achieve NATO interference. First they want to create the illusion of victory. Immediately Matthew Miller announced more weapons for Ukraine. Keep the money flowing.
After that and this moral boost it would make sense to lower conscription age to 18. See, we can defeat Russia, all we need is more weapons and troops.
Third, to get a response from Russia. Think a tactical nuke as retaliation. Or striking NATO territory, warehouses, weapon factories, so NATO will enter the war. Ukraine has been trying that for a while now. As always, Russia acts calculated. So far no big retaliation happened, but it will.
Red lines: I hear the west cheering over crossing Russia's red lines without consequences. I don't agree with that. Remember when Ukrainians could turn on a light bulb and heat their homes? Or that Russia receives weapons from Iran and North Korea?
The unwritten rules no longer apply. The west always thinks short term, Russia and China long term. After this war, the war will not end. Russia will arm all NATO enemies with advanced weapons. That was an unwritten rule, now with NATO tanks on Russian soil the game changed. Just think about it, over 800 foreign military bases to protect, with enemies having advanced weapons. We know the west shines in double standards but you can't cry anymore if Russian weapons fall on your head. I think it was a very stupid move.
That gas station is interesting. If they blow it up and the USA is behind this attack, then it's another attack on EU critical infrastructure. I feel so much shame for living under such weak fools that no one elected.
Mercouris (Duran) reports that the Russians had actively cleared the mines from their side because they were preparing their own attack in that sector. That's also why they have significant forces in the area. These forces were held back 25km or so from the border so as not to offer free targets to AFU artillery. This makes sense. Regardless, the AFU achieved at least tactical surprise and it looks like an error by Russia. On a bad day they could have lost the nuke plant and that would be difficult to reclaim safely, given the proximity to the city of Kursk.
Interesting but there were reports today that a number of Ukrainians armored vehicles were blown up by mines. I agree it was a blunder (or error) by the Russians and I think there will be consequences for Gerasimov, but not right now. The nuke plant is too far away to have been a real target.
Yeah agreed it would be a stretch even for wheeled vehicles on unopposed roads. Maybe it's just pure gesture for the US/NATO audience? It's certainly an embarrassment for Putin, so if it had no other value, it has that value.
The purpose was IMO same as many other borderline suicidal operations we've seen in the past two years - to *prevent* any negotiation. (because, hmm, the US has pressing obligations elsewhere in the world, perhaps?). Prevention Accomplished.
Since this article was written, the geniuses in Kiev also (and not for the first time) directly attacked the ZNPP nuclear power plant in Russian territory in the town of Energodar. Just to drive home the point, that they're willing to do anything to make trouble, regardless to the future cost to themselves, and the US will still look the other way when they do so. It ends of course with the forcible disconnection of Ukraine's remaining electric system, and consequent depopulation, as was sadly predicted a while ago already.
It looks to me that Ukraine is quite desperate.
The Sudzha Gas Metering station is on the Brotherhood pipeline, which flows through Ukraine. There is no need for the Ukrainians to go to Russia to stop the flow of gas, they can just as well do it in Ukraine.
but they would destroy only pipeline in Ukraine, not a complex as at Sudzha, which is difficult to replace and expensive.
One of the very craziest aspects of this crazy war is that Rissia is still paying Ukraine transit fees for gas still sent to Europe through that pipeline (after Ukraine blew up Nordstream and tried to blow up the southern pipeline, and after the Allies supposedly ended imports of Russian gas).
As I remarked in 2022, the Allies didn't pay Hitler for supplies in money that was then used to help the war effort against them.
I really fail to understand how western media never mention this bizarre irony.
On all counts, it achieved nothing. Was there anything significant in reserve to exploit it? There is no bargaining position for Ukraine. There is only more needless deaths and destruction the longer Ukraine/West holds out.
How is it that 2 air assault brigades are leading the operation, when they have drone power but no other air power?
drones are a form of air power and the Ukrainians are using them in huge numbers
Air assault units are elite units which are often (mis)used in conventional roles.
This incursion reminds me of the Battle of the Bulge in WW II. Allied command was caught by surprise, yet managed to regroup, counterattack, and erased the salient. The Russians still have vastly more combat power than the Ukrainians. I expect them to do the same.
As I have pointed out in a different response, it is not a great analogy. The Bulge was an attempt by the Nazis to split the Allied armies and drive all the way to Antwerp, knocking out the vital supply line for the US and UK. I think the Ukrainian operation is different in that it is intended to hold Russian territory as a bargaining chip (as my article explains). The big question is what price Ukraine is willing to pay and how long they can hold on. That differentiates it from the Bulge as the Ukrainian move is tactical and political, the Nazi push was strategic and military. (Having two uncles at the Bulge it is something that our family remembers well.) I do grant you there is one similarity: it is that the Ukrainians, like the Nazis, are in desperate shape.
Putin has already stated the conditions for peace talk: withdrawal from the new Russian territories. Accepting peace talks because of the incursion would look like defeat, probably entirely unacceptable to Putin.
Stephen, thanks for the update - one thing you got wrong Sudzha Gasprom Gas Metering Station is sitting right on the border line between RUS and UA, about 500 meters from the border, so its capture was an inevitable low-hanging fruit
Google map
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Sudzha,+Kursk+Oblast/@51.1786542,35.1427494,2625m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m6!3m5!1s0x4129278e80517cbd:0x8ce47233785ab71e!8m2!3d51.1912966!4d35.2705168!16zL20vMGR4dmNs?entry=ttu
Look for ГИС «Суджа».
One of the interesting features is that all the best people were telling us that the Age of Maneuver Warfare was over. Intelligence gathering was now so intense and so fast-paced that any attempt to mass forces for an attack would be identified and those concentrated forces easily destroyed. Hence the return to WWI trench warfare tactics.
And yet, here is little Ukraine (with a lot of NATO help) staging a large-scale fast-moving attack! And it is not as if the militaries of either the Ukraine or NATO have earned much respect in the last few years. Very strange!
As to the future -- if the Ukrainians can do this once, what is to stop them from doing it again somewhere else on that long front line? And if the Ukrainians can do modest-sized "Big Arrow" attacks, what is stopping the Russians from doing something similar?
Insufficient menpower, because their soldiers are dying along a long frontline.
"The [Sudzha Gas Metering] station, located on the Russia-Ukraine border several kilometers from the Russian town of Sudzha, handles all gas flowing from Russia to Europe. The station is located about 5 miles inside Russia's border with Ukraine. Ukraine claims to now control the station and there is speculation that Ukraine may decide to blow it up. If that happens then Europe will have to depend on LNG exports from the United States. ... If they blow it up, then it becomes an economic issue for Russia and Europe."
"Europe will have to depend on LNG exports from the United States" And this is an issue for the USA how?
it isn't clear we can ship enough LNG if we had to do so
Agree - but who won't have that gas? Serbia, Slovakia, Hungary?