To answer your question: yes. And yes, those Taurus missiles will be operated by sheep-dipped german crews.
Germany loves to do this dance where they feign reluctance to escalate but an American snaps his fingers and european knees hit the floor with a resounding Thwack!
The "Release The Leopards!" fiasco was most instructive.
“Macron will make an urgent address to the French nation tomorrow on the war in Ukraine
Earlier, the country’s parliament approved the French president’s strategy towards Ukraine and supported the bilateral security agreement signed by Macron and Zelenskyy.
📰 Le Monde”
No, it won’t be popular. Macron doesn’t care, and germany will be forced to go along. No, a French/Polish/Czech expeditionary force will not be decisive (nor will Taurus missiles) but if you think that the escalation will end there, then you are high.
To be fair, the Bundestag again defied pressure and voted against sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine.
I suppose they will keep voting on the issue until the parliament votes as instructed, upon which we will be duly assured that The Voice Of The People Has Spoken.
My opinion is considerably different: I think Scholz got a big victory and those in the coalition trying to dump him off (using this issue, the Greens especially) failed. I don't think he will cave in future, although I am neither an expert on Scholz or on German politics. One of the problems is that if the government falls, a future government could be worse.
"The German newspaper Spiegel writes that Annalena Baerbock is working on the transfer of Taurus missiles to Ukraine in order to bypass Chancellor Scholz without violating his red lines. And she suggests that the transfer could be done through the British: give them the missiles and they will give them to Ukraine. "
She lost the vote in the Bundestag and was livid. The real problem is that he can't fire her because the Greens are a critical part of the coalition. But beyond that she has lost a lot of ground and credibility.
I'm sure she is livid. But at least one credible source (Der Spiegel) indicates that her response is apparently to ignore the Bundestag and the Chancellor and do it anyway, who is going to stop her?
The Houthis are attacking the ships of enemies of Russia, this needs to be factored in. When was the last time an enemy of NATO blocked a major sea lane?
Stephen, it's fair to ask why those defenses haven't been built. There might be a shortage of munitions, but there's no shortage of excavators and bulldozers. The only explanation is that the money was allocated but the works weren't executed. Why? For the same reason that Ukraine is in this mess in the first place: it's citizens don't believe that the country is worth saving. Just compare Ukraine, with its size, population and resources to the Baltics, who actually made it into the EU and NATO by doing the work and sacrificing their sovereignty to multinational organizations. Ukraine is like the grasshopper who didn't put anything aside for winter from Aesop's fables. It's really as simple as that. And they want everyone to feel obligated to bail them out. Can anyone explain to me how I'm wrong?
It would be a surprise if the money sent wasn't stolen. What is the evidence, if any, that the country has changed since the invasion? If no reasonable evidence can be presented, then we deserve to have any aid that we give get stolen.
@Grazier Not disagreeing with you but the Baltics are often used as a positive example how post Soviet countries can shine again. But the reality isn't that great. Yes, the Baltics look modern now, due to a lot of money from the EU. but most young people have left and what's left has a grim future. Fertility rates are amongst the lowest in the world and in a few decades there will be no one left. Does that sounds like a success story to you?
Fact is the richer countries benefited from that, again, because they were able to absorb the highly educated younger population, which lives now in England, Germany, Skandinavien countries and the Netherlands.
Yes, but it depends on the type of leftist you are talking about. Russia gets along quite well with Cuba and Nicaragua. You mean the Weimar type of leftist who is obsessed with deviancy.
I think back to centre-left Blair joining Shrub's ME crusade under the banner of 'liberal interventionism'.
And neocons changing color from Red to Blue since then.
And of course 'Red and Blue' are the other way round in Europe, rather as they were the other way round in the US nineteenth century, when Lincoln fought Southern Democrats.
Maybe we now need new maps for post-coldwar political 'geography'?
Of course Hitler was a 'national socialist' combining Communist red and Nationalist Black in the 'Nazi' flag, and Mussolini was a mix of Left and Right
The German Greens were long pacifists in reaction to WW2.
But maybe Baerbock sees Putin and Xi as 'national socialists' like Hitler and Stalin.
Anyway, one thing Marx got right was to look at the relation of ideology and economics, and the economics of war.
Pope Francis asked people at Christmas to look more closely at 'The Merchants of Death'.
And I'm mostly focused on the C21st nexus of military and economic competition in the Pacific, and especially the new business opportunities Francis' merchants see there.
It is even more weird because Russia is actually kinda Left but Western leftists think Left must be something different (like French philosophers disillusioned with USSR) and they talked themselves into believing that Russia is not Left.
The west has been at war with Russia in ALL forms of Russia:
1) Tsarist Russia 1910s. funding japan via warburg pincus bank in US to much celebration (never mind that a mere 20yrs later Japan was nuked, which Netanyahu explicitly celebrates as a positive example for the world today)
2) Soviet Russia (but not before partnering with Soviet Russia to reign in the same Hitler which the US was infatuated with earlier)
3) Putin's Russia (you could even say Yeltsin's russia b/c Larry summers dint offer no great help)
First they say no, then maybe and then yes. Will TAURUS win the war? No. But we can kill some Russians. For me the west is not only financial bankrupt, but also morally.
Let them send all weapons to Ukraine, that will make it easier for Russia to conquer the EU, if you believe the MSM. I already have to Russian flag waving.
If they're air launched like Storm Shadow, then it seems the Russians have a way to defend. They're already defending against storm shadow, specifically (also air launched) :
They are air launched weapons. They fly at subsonic speed (jet turbine). The key feature of the Taurus is that it flies at very low altitude and requires terrain mapping to guide it to its target. Terrain mapping is done by specialized satellites and reconnaissance aircraft and is fed into the Taurus missile. Storm Shadow also uses terrain mapping. The reason to fly low is to operate in the areas where radar has problems finding an incoming threat, mostly because of the amount of noise and clutter coming from features on the ground (hills, trees, buildings etc). The US Tomahawk has a similar system called TERCOM.
correct. but we have proof (if "Duran" is anything to go by, and why not...they constantly claim to have UK MoD background sources in their vids) the Storm Shadow has been no storm. The terrain mapping input feed is the proprietary UK/US input part of this war, even requires US/UK (now German if taurus comes in) personnel overseeing the pre-launch location terrain profile programming. They are still being stopped.
very hard for us to back-seat assess in the public domain, on top of the total news blackout enforced by MSM on this war. But if it's "a success" conditional on no primary air defense present, then that's not saying much. Despite the fact that all that inertial and terrain mapping navigation ensures radio silence on it's trajectory.
One wonders why Russia doesn't take out Ukraine electricity grid and water supply and floods the EU with millions of refugees. If necessary blow up a gas pipeline from Norway to Europe as a retaliation for Nordstream, stop exporting precious metals and noble gases to Europe and watch the EU go down the drain in real time.
Yes, we know Putin has been somewhat reasonable and fights a just war (first war since WW2 where civilian casualties are lower than military ones). But then he's also naive to believe someone in the EU or Washington will eventually talk to him. They want to destroy his reign and Russia's economy. I mean Western leaders have even publically stated that.
Russia should make the West fear again, as Trenin said. Starting to do nuclear tests again would be one way, as a first step. Otherwise the West will keep pushing and pushing until it's too late.
Of course it's tricky waters but so far, we haven't seen one sign of deescalation from the West.
Minsk2, Boris Johnson's intervention, Taurus missiles....
Let's be honest here, there are more and more indications that this conflict was orchestrated to trap Russia and to get rid of its leaders/ruling class.
At one point, Putin has to realize enough is enough since it's not Western politicians dying on the battlefield but young Russian (and Ukrainian) men.
Try reading Jaques Baud's most excellent book "The Russian Art of War: How the West Led Ukraine to Defeat". It sets a new standard in understanding current and future events. I also read Martyanov's blogs http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/ ; his books a little less transparent but no less valuable for insight
The Americans consider Europe as the crumple zone of the American empire. They will lament the loss of natural gas sales when Russia vaporizes German facilities that are used for its importation, but if a German/Polish war with Russia "degrades" Russia (in the American perception) then all is fair in love and war.
IMO, the expected consequence of Kiev's continued potshots at Russian nuclear power plants, will be that Ukraine's electric grid goes back on the menu. Sponsors going to wish they had sent air defense, not strike missiles. (In previous episodes, Ukraine's 1000kV network was spared, and the 330kV network hit with limited strikes, taking out the slack). Timing is poor, too, for the optics. Much less of a humanitarian disaster after winter ends. Population would simply leave if the tit for tat results in end of electricity.
I think many in 'The West' are getting pretty tired of crazy psycho Budanov and chief accountant Yermak.
Budanov's little theatre on the Northern border with his pretend White Russians losing many men and much equipment to change the result of Russian elections with a dumb provocation will not have expanded his fanclub at home or abroad.
Smart or naive. His interview showed that he clearly wants to negotiate.
He just hasn't realized there is nobody to negotiate with. His hopes are a new US administration in November and many of us hope that, but what happens if Biden wins again?
There've been more recent statements from Putin, that make it more clear than the Tucker Carlson interview. That lukewarm gestures by US/NATO in the past few months were are contradicted by both escalatory actions and also by plenty of rhetoric from European leaders. In short, nothing substantial has been done by the West to rebuild trust, at the big-picture level, since the fakeout in 2022.
That's not to say there's specifics about how exactly they would proceed (that's my own speculation) , only that the tit-for-tat is expected to continue.
To answer your question: yes. And yes, those Taurus missiles will be operated by sheep-dipped german crews.
Germany loves to do this dance where they feign reluctance to escalate but an American snaps his fingers and european knees hit the floor with a resounding Thwack!
The "Release The Leopards!" fiasco was most instructive.
Anyway:
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/104192
“Macron will make an urgent address to the French nation tomorrow on the war in Ukraine
Earlier, the country’s parliament approved the French president’s strategy towards Ukraine and supported the bilateral security agreement signed by Macron and Zelenskyy.
📰 Le Monde”
No, it won’t be popular. Macron doesn’t care, and germany will be forced to go along. No, a French/Polish/Czech expeditionary force will not be decisive (nor will Taurus missiles) but if you think that the escalation will end there, then you are high.
WWIII is coming.
We'll know more after Macron's speech.
To be fair, the Bundestag again defied pressure and voted against sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine.
I suppose they will keep voting on the issue until the parliament votes as instructed, upon which we will be duly assured that The Voice Of The People Has Spoken.
My opinion is considerably different: I think Scholz got a big victory and those in the coalition trying to dump him off (using this issue, the Greens especially) failed. I don't think he will cave in future, although I am neither an expert on Scholz or on German politics. One of the problems is that if the government falls, a future government could be worse.
https://t.me/ukraine_watch/18523
"The German newspaper Spiegel writes that Annalena Baerbock is working on the transfer of Taurus missiles to Ukraine in order to bypass Chancellor Scholz without violating his red lines. And she suggests that the transfer could be done through the British: give them the missiles and they will give them to Ukraine. "
She lost the vote in the Bundestag and was livid. The real problem is that he can't fire her because the Greens are a critical part of the coalition. But beyond that she has lost a lot of ground and credibility.
I'm sure she is livid. But at least one credible source (Der Spiegel) indicates that her response is apparently to ignore the Bundestag and the Chancellor and do it anyway, who is going to stop her?
Would to God that you prove correct. The fact that the Bundestag keeps voting over and over is telling.
The Houthis are attacking the ships of enemies of Russia, this needs to be factored in. When was the last time an enemy of NATO blocked a major sea lane?
Stephen, it's fair to ask why those defenses haven't been built. There might be a shortage of munitions, but there's no shortage of excavators and bulldozers. The only explanation is that the money was allocated but the works weren't executed. Why? For the same reason that Ukraine is in this mess in the first place: it's citizens don't believe that the country is worth saving. Just compare Ukraine, with its size, population and resources to the Baltics, who actually made it into the EU and NATO by doing the work and sacrificing their sovereignty to multinational organizations. Ukraine is like the grasshopper who didn't put anything aside for winter from Aesop's fables. It's really as simple as that. And they want everyone to feel obligated to bail them out. Can anyone explain to me how I'm wrong?
More likely the problem is theft and corruption
It would be a surprise if the money sent wasn't stolen. What is the evidence, if any, that the country has changed since the invasion? If no reasonable evidence can be presented, then we deserve to have any aid that we give get stolen.
@Grazier Not disagreeing with you but the Baltics are often used as a positive example how post Soviet countries can shine again. But the reality isn't that great. Yes, the Baltics look modern now, due to a lot of money from the EU. but most young people have left and what's left has a grim future. Fertility rates are amongst the lowest in the world and in a few decades there will be no one left. Does that sounds like a success story to you?
Fact is the richer countries benefited from that, again, because they were able to absorb the highly educated younger population, which lives now in England, Germany, Skandinavien countries and the Netherlands.
Weird to me to see the German Greens so hawkish.
But then Hitler was a vegetarian.
it is a strange twist, but the left generally wants to smash Russia (because it is not left)
Yes, but it depends on the type of leftist you are talking about. Russia gets along quite well with Cuba and Nicaragua. You mean the Weimar type of leftist who is obsessed with deviancy.
Left & Right ain't what they used to be.
I think back to centre-left Blair joining Shrub's ME crusade under the banner of 'liberal interventionism'.
And neocons changing color from Red to Blue since then.
And of course 'Red and Blue' are the other way round in Europe, rather as they were the other way round in the US nineteenth century, when Lincoln fought Southern Democrats.
Maybe we now need new maps for post-coldwar political 'geography'?
Of course Hitler was a 'national socialist' combining Communist red and Nationalist Black in the 'Nazi' flag, and Mussolini was a mix of Left and Right
The German Greens were long pacifists in reaction to WW2.
But maybe Baerbock sees Putin and Xi as 'national socialists' like Hitler and Stalin.
Anyway, one thing Marx got right was to look at the relation of ideology and economics, and the economics of war.
Pope Francis asked people at Christmas to look more closely at 'The Merchants of Death'.
And I'm mostly focused on the C21st nexus of military and economic competition in the Pacific, and especially the new business opportunities Francis' merchants see there.
It is even more weird because Russia is actually kinda Left but Western leftists think Left must be something different (like French philosophers disillusioned with USSR) and they talked themselves into believing that Russia is not Left.
The west has been at war with Russia in ALL forms of Russia:
1) Tsarist Russia 1910s. funding japan via warburg pincus bank in US to much celebration (never mind that a mere 20yrs later Japan was nuked, which Netanyahu explicitly celebrates as a positive example for the world today)
2) Soviet Russia (but not before partnering with Soviet Russia to reign in the same Hitler which the US was infatuated with earlier)
3) Putin's Russia (you could even say Yeltsin's russia b/c Larry summers dint offer no great help)
ALL FORMS! FACT!
It's rather the Su-24, not Su-22.
yes, my error
First they say no, then maybe and then yes. Will TAURUS win the war? No. But we can kill some Russians. For me the west is not only financial bankrupt, but also morally.
Let them send all weapons to Ukraine, that will make it easier for Russia to conquer the EU, if you believe the MSM. I already have to Russian flag waving.
I believe that expanding Ukrainian offensive operations to Russia territory will lead to a war in Europe. That is what the Taurus issue is all about.
It will, eventually.
If they're air launched like Storm Shadow, then it seems the Russians have a way to defend. They're already defending against storm shadow, specifically (also air launched) :
https://youtu.be/HH3BD9p-xuc?si=xorpmIOL9LXGn8dB&t=177
They are air launched weapons. They fly at subsonic speed (jet turbine). The key feature of the Taurus is that it flies at very low altitude and requires terrain mapping to guide it to its target. Terrain mapping is done by specialized satellites and reconnaissance aircraft and is fed into the Taurus missile. Storm Shadow also uses terrain mapping. The reason to fly low is to operate in the areas where radar has problems finding an incoming threat, mostly because of the amount of noise and clutter coming from features on the ground (hills, trees, buildings etc). The US Tomahawk has a similar system called TERCOM.
correct. but we have proof (if "Duran" is anything to go by, and why not...they constantly claim to have UK MoD background sources in their vids) the Storm Shadow has been no storm. The terrain mapping input feed is the proprietary UK/US input part of this war, even requires US/UK (now German if taurus comes in) personnel overseeing the pre-launch location terrain profile programming. They are still being stopped.
some of them are hit, some not
a lot depends on the target and on whether the launch is detected
it has been a reasonably effective weapon, especially when it goes after targets that are not in the primary air defense coverage areas
very hard for us to back-seat assess in the public domain, on top of the total news blackout enforced by MSM on this war. But if it's "a success" conditional on no primary air defense present, then that's not saying much. Despite the fact that all that inertial and terrain mapping navigation ensures radio silence on it's trajectory.
One wonders why Russia doesn't take out Ukraine electricity grid and water supply and floods the EU with millions of refugees. If necessary blow up a gas pipeline from Norway to Europe as a retaliation for Nordstream, stop exporting precious metals and noble gases to Europe and watch the EU go down the drain in real time.
Yes, we know Putin has been somewhat reasonable and fights a just war (first war since WW2 where civilian casualties are lower than military ones). But then he's also naive to believe someone in the EU or Washington will eventually talk to him. They want to destroy his reign and Russia's economy. I mean Western leaders have even publically stated that.
Russia should make the West fear again, as Trenin said. Starting to do nuclear tests again would be one way, as a first step. Otherwise the West will keep pushing and pushing until it's too late.
It is tricky waters to give the Russians advice on the war, perhaps a really bad idea. A better approach is to seek an end to the conflict.
Of course it's tricky waters but so far, we haven't seen one sign of deescalation from the West.
Minsk2, Boris Johnson's intervention, Taurus missiles....
Let's be honest here, there are more and more indications that this conflict was orchestrated to trap Russia and to get rid of its leaders/ruling class.
At one point, Putin has to realize enough is enough since it's not Western politicians dying on the battlefield but young Russian (and Ukrainian) men.
Try reading Jaques Baud's most excellent book "The Russian Art of War: How the West Led Ukraine to Defeat". It sets a new standard in understanding current and future events. I also read Martyanov's blogs http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/ ; his books a little less transparent but no less valuable for insight
The Americans consider Europe as the crumple zone of the American empire. They will lament the loss of natural gas sales when Russia vaporizes German facilities that are used for its importation, but if a German/Polish war with Russia "degrades" Russia (in the American perception) then all is fair in love and war.
I don't think that is a fair reading.
IMO, the expected consequence of Kiev's continued potshots at Russian nuclear power plants, will be that Ukraine's electric grid goes back on the menu. Sponsors going to wish they had sent air defense, not strike missiles. (In previous episodes, Ukraine's 1000kV network was spared, and the 330kV network hit with limited strikes, taking out the slack). Timing is poor, too, for the optics. Much less of a humanitarian disaster after winter ends. Population would simply leave if the tit for tat results in end of electricity.
I think Putin is too smart to fall into that trap. We will have to wait and see...
If there's no response, Budanov and company will just poke harder until they eventually get one
I think many in 'The West' are getting pretty tired of crazy psycho Budanov and chief accountant Yermak.
Budanov's little theatre on the Northern border with his pretend White Russians losing many men and much equipment to change the result of Russian elections with a dumb provocation will not have expanded his fanclub at home or abroad.
Smart or naive. His interview showed that he clearly wants to negotiate.
He just hasn't realized there is nobody to negotiate with. His hopes are a new US administration in November and many of us hope that, but what happens if Biden wins again?
There've been more recent statements from Putin, that make it more clear than the Tucker Carlson interview. That lukewarm gestures by US/NATO in the past few months were are contradicted by both escalatory actions and also by plenty of rhetoric from European leaders. In short, nothing substantial has been done by the West to rebuild trust, at the big-picture level, since the fakeout in 2022.
That's not to say there's specifics about how exactly they would proceed (that's my own speculation) , only that the tit-for-tat is expected to continue.
Thanks Stephen. I shared it on our Stack
A Skeptic War Reports
https://askeptic.substack.com/