Drones Over the Kremlin

Maybe Yes, Maybe No

According to the Russian media, namely Tass, RT and Sputnik News, two drones attacked President Vladimir Putin’s living quarters in the Kremlin. He wasn’t home the evening of May 3rd, so the attack, if one was actually launched, could not achieve its aim, namely killing Putin.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1653734878075142150

As things now stand, the Kremlin has produced a couple of videos —one of them showing what looks like a drone that explodes perhaps 50 feet above ground. That video also, oddly, shows two individuals —some have said they are soldiers— ascending one of the buildings that has a dome-like structure which is named as the Senate Palace Dome. They are climbing up as the drone comes down. If the video is authentic, we don’t know what they are doing there in the middle of the night. Were they carrying a MANPADS, a shoulder-fired anti-aircraft rocket, to the top to intercept incoming drones? There is no video evidence that they are carrying anything. Could they have been spotters, told to get a clear view of the sky around the Kremlin? That is possible, if there was early warning of the attack. In any case, they were late to the party and since the video ends after the explosion, we don’t know what happened to these guys.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1653749026343223299

Moscow, by now, has one of the most elaborate aircraft and missile defense systems in the world, perhaps rivaling Israel’s layered air defenses. It would not be surprising if the Russians copied what the Israelis are doing, but with significantly different equipment. An integrated air defense network should have been able to intercept any drone attack well before it closed in on the Kremlin enclave.

There is a story, floating around the blogosphere, that the attack on the Kremlin was some kind of inside job, where a team of Ukrainian mercenaries launched the drones very close to the Kremlin walls. In this case, the elaborate air defenses around the city of Moscow would have been effectively circumvented and early detection of a drone attack not possible.

The Russians say that the drones were (finally) stopped by electronic means. This suggests that not only were the drones electronics jammed, but at least in the case of the one that exploded, the Russians were able to cause the drone’s payload to explode. Is it possible? The answer is affirmative, since the Russians not only have jammers, but they have very powerful jammers perhaps strong enough trigger a drone’s explosive package.

Reports from Russia also say that the drones that were destroyed fell to the ground in thousands of pieces. In other words, conveniently perhaps, there is no hard evidence proving the attack took place.

Zelensky in Finland

The Ukrainian government has denied any involvement in a drone attack on the Kremlin aimed at Putin. Conveniently, Zelensky is in Finland on a state visit. Wisely, or maybe prudently, he has postponed his return to Ukraine. One presumes he doesn’t want to be around when the bombs fall on his underground bunker. But another way of looking at Zelensky’s decision to extend his visit to Finland is he wanted to allow time for a special operation against Putin to play out. If it was successful, he could return home a hero. If it failed, he could find other things to do.

Washington, similarly, has said two things: that if there was a drone attack Washington did not receive advanced warning from Ukraine. This is a convenient way of avoiding responsibility, at least until there is contrary evidence. But Washington says there probably wasn't.

The Russians say they will respond to the Kremlin attack at a time and place of their own choosing. That announcement actually adds a scintilla of credibility to Russia’s claims the attack happened. If the Russians are able to track down the team that launched the drones, that would really be something, but don’t hold your breath.