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In 1974 Bob Marley with the Wailers introduced the now famous song, No Woman, No Cry. I am waiting to hear an updated version, No HIMARS, No Cry. (I don’t compose music and I can’t sing, but maybe there is a volunteer out there.)
Why No Himars? Because there aren’t any.
The US Marines, on October 10th, were slated to carry out a live-fire exercise with Japan’s Self Defense Forces. They almost did, but not quite.
Watch this video:
You will see a C-130 landing at Kenebetsu Air Base in Hokkaido, Japan in Operation Resolute Dragon. The purpose of the exercise was to combine operations with Japan’s Self Defense Forces (JSDF), sharing targeting information and conducting a live fire drill.
But only half the drill happened. Yes, the C-130 brought in one HIMARS launcher and a team of Marine operators. And yes, Japan launched at least a dozen rockets.
The US never launched any, because the Marines didn’t have any.
How come? Why is this important?
HIMARS has become famous in the Ukraine war, but previously we used HIMARS in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria (some launched from Jordan). Other countries also have HIMARS, but Japan does not.
Instead, Japan has a tracked multiple launch rocket system based on a tracked vehicle. It is a version of the Model M-270 which Japan began manufacturing under license in 1992. It fires rockets like a gun fires a shell. You set the range and direction and let it go, hoping it will hit something.
That is also how HIMARS started out firing unguided 227mm rockets. But HIMARS grew from there, first introducing GPS guided rockets (M30, M30A1) and then moving up to a longer range rocket called ATACMS, with a range of up to 300 km and a missile diameter of 610 mm. A number of ATACMS variants were manufactured, but the one that survived is the M57. The last order for these was 220 missiles. After that, no more.
That is because the Pentagon is introducing a new, highly accurate missile with even longer range called PrSM. The first of these are slated to show up in 2024.
President Biden committed 38 HIMARS launchers to Ukraine of which he could find only 20 that he drew down from US inventory (and did not replace). Biden got Congress to agree to a $1 billion arms package for Ukraine, and 18 of the launchers Lockheed will be making in the coming year are slated for Ukraine.
But the problem is high end precision guided rockets for HIMARS. the Marines didn’t have any to use in their exercise in Japan, so they made pretend while the JSDF launched about a dozen unguided short range rockets.
We don’t know how many rockets remain in inventory. That’s no doubt classified. But the failure of the Marine-JSDF exercise to fire any HIMARS must have caused glee in China.
Does any of this matter? You bet it does. One of the most important plans to defend Taiwan is twofold: to provide HIMARS to Taiwan for its self-defense and to locate US Marines and the JSDF on the island of Iwakuni, located 67 miles from Taiwan. Because HIMARS can knock out ships and landing craft, the Marines and JSDF could stop a Chinese sea-based invasion force using HIMARS.
No HIMARS, Lots of Crying.