Ukraine's New F-16s are far from New
Will Boost Morale but Won't Change Much in the War
Now that President Biden has agreed that NATO members can train Ukrainian pilots on the F-16, it is likely Ukraine will get old F-16A/B aircraft. Though upgraded to a degree, these planes date to the 1970s or 1980s. They are not game changers. Maybe they will boost morale, but once they arrive (in 3 to 6 months or more), they won’t change the war in Ukraine.
Ukraine ‘s F-16s will likely come from Norwegian, Dutch, or Danish inventories with the most likely source the Netherlands. Netherlands has reported ongoing negotiation between itself and Ukraine on acquiring the jets.
These are old versions of the F-16 (F-16A/B) and were partly upgraded in the early 2000's. Unlike the newer version, and even the upgrade of Taiwan's F-16s, the F-16s for Ukraine will not feature an advanced AESA radar.
The jets will be able to carry air to air and air to ground weapons, including the AIM 120 medium range radar guided air to air missile. These planes are better than the Ukrainian Mig-29s they are meant to replace, and far easier to operate. But for Ukraine to field these jets, repair facilities will be needed.
Standing up a repair facility in Ukraine could take more than a year, and training personnel could take even longer. Keeping these planes in the air involves a capability to repair sophisticated components, such as the radar or to pull and replace failed parts, and the software for the aircraft radar, computers and other systems will need to be maintained and, where necessary, upgraded as threats evolve. More than likely, only the quickest and easiest replacement of components will be attempted inside Ukraine. Otherwise servicing will have to be done in Europe, probably in the country of origin.
Along with electronic components, these F-16s have a General Electric F-110 powerplant that will have to be serviced abroad.
The F-16 requires pristine long runways, which may not always be available in Ukraine. The jets may have to operate with half loads to get off of shorter runways and the rough existing runways may either damage airframes or onboard equipment.
One component of the mid-life upgrade (MTU) was repairing cracks in the plane's fuselage, especially critical bulkheads. These repairs seemed good enough to bring the jets to the end-of-life (EOL) time-line which the Dutch air force put at around 2023. But the calculation for the repair is mainly based on having very good runways and constant inspection and maintenance. EOL aircraft are not the best platforms for critical and sustained combat operations, especially at a high tempo.
The greatest improvement for Ukraine is having a good platform to launch the AIM-120 air to air missile. AIM-120 is a beyond visual range missile which blends updates from the launching aircraft with autonomous operation. In practice this means that enemy aircraft and ground installations could potentially jam the AIM-120 radar or its linked communications. One feature of the Ukraine war is the powerful and effective electronic warfare systems fielded by Russia. This is the first time a European power has actually operated in such a dense EW environment.
A more serious problem for all Ukrainian aircraft are Russians layered air defense systems. These may limit the ability for the F-16 to get close enough to certain sensitive Russian installations, especially Crimea where the S-400 air defense system is located.
Taking everything into account, Ukraine badly needs the F-16 as its air force is depleted and its existing fighter jet inventory, if still flying, is using degraded equipment that has been battered by the demands of the conflict. There are only a few inventories of capable used aircraft. Ukraine probably won't get anymore Mig-29s or Su-27s because none are available for purchase or transfer. Along with the F-16s potentially available from Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands, the other candidate is the Panavia Tornado. Germany has some, as does Italy and the UK. The Ukrainians have not asked for them, and in truth they are no longer any match for most of the top of the line Russian aircraft.
Used F-16s at the end of their life, are not really going to change the war chessboard. The arrival of these jets, nonetheless, ought to be a morale booster for Ukraine.
I agree with you there are many risks in fueling the Ukraine war.
I said it will boost Ukrainian morale, not much more. I have no idea what the Russian MOD thinks, but they have been noisily complaining about the F--16s, so I don't quite get the notion they welcome fighting against them.