There is no doubt now that Bakhmut will soon fall to the Russians. How soon? Probably a few days and no more than one week. Ukraine says it has managed to evacuate its elite forces from the city, leaving only rearguard elements to hang on until the end. Efforts by Ukraine to provide counterattacks have not borne fruit, and all efforts have been stopped by Russian paratroopers and Wagner PMC fighters, along with generous amounts of Russian artillery.
Meanwhile the Russians themselves are refocusing on the newly created Ukrainian brigades that are supposed to lead Ukraine's glorious counteroffensive. These are the brigades that have been stuffed up to their ears in western hardware, but who lack well trained troops. Such brigades also face complex, perhaps impossible, logistical challenges, since the western supplies require spare parts, repair centers and in many cases different types of ammunition. Even the Leopard II tanks supplied can't all use the same ammunition.
More worrisome for Ukraine's army is the lack of replacement supplies if their coming offensives drags on. Simply put, there are almost no supplies around. The US is mostly out of ammunition, and has been stripping stockpiles in South Korea and Israel, something that has alarmed Israel's generals who think a hot war with Iran is only weeks away. The South Koreans have kept quiet, mostly because South Korea's president, Yoon Suk-yeol, has just completed a visit to Washington that was stage managed to make Joe Biden look good. So far as can be determined, the visit was completely ceremonial and basically fruitless. (Strictly speaking the only result was that Yoon used the occasion of a state dinner to sing "American Pie," no matter whether Joe drove his Chevy to the levee, or went over the side. The fact that the levee was dry is a current-time social commentary.)
At the 11th hour Ukraine is trying hard to recruit more soldiers, sometimes using rough tactics to dragoon young men. Such troops can't possibly be trained in time and practically speaking are, at most, cannon fodder. But the Ukrainians want to look credible to their American masters, so not only do they grab young people from street corners or in front of popular watering holes such as McDonalds, but they beat them up if they resist. The same is happening to any Ukrainian journalist who tries to write anything the so-called democratic government of Ukraine does not like. The Zelensky regime has arrested political opponents or chased them out of the country, or worse. And these days Ukrainian special operations groups are assassinating journalists and commentators in Russia and elsewhere who oppose Ukraine.
After Bakhmut is gone, it is possible the Russians will suggest negotiations with the United States. Biden, who is running for reelection, does not want any status quo change until he is reelected. But Biden's reelection is getting more and more remote as the semi-senile President stumbles and bumbles and as a number of his government's policies will, in the end, bring down his administration notwithstanding his faltering mental status or how many dead Ukrainians pay the price for his reelection effort. A vast wave of immigrants will soon flood across the southern border of the US; new taxes will soon be slapped on mortgages for people with good credit scores (without bothering to get Congressional approval); inflation keeps killing the middle class; and worst of all, the Biden administration demands control of all children's sexuality without the parents having any say so.
Without negotiations, the Russians will attempt to systematically destroy Ukraine's new brigades. With larger forces, better tactics, and more airpower, air defenses and ground equipment, the Russians could very well defeat the Ukrainian army and force regime change in Kiev.
In short, in the not too distant future Biden may have to hang up his walker and Zelensky may be looking for a job in California.
The sooner the better. So many wasted lives. Biden and the whole Neo con brigade should be charged with crimes against humanity for this as well as the covid mess.