Blinken: How Not to Handle China

Blinken wants to move on (somewhere)

By any measure, Secretary of State Antony Blinken's latest trip to China was a dismal failure.  Shunned by the Chinese and embarrassed at the get go, when no one from the Chinese side showed up to greet him when he arrived, Blinken spent his brief time in China alternatively getting chewed out and making excuses for dangerous Chinese policies.

If you want a tipping point it has to be Blinken's ludicrous comments about the high altitude surveillance balloon that compromised our strategic defense missile silos that protect the US from nuclear attack.

Blinken said that the Chinese balloon "chapter" should "be closed."  He went on to declare unilaterally that China should not do it again, something the Chinese simply did not either acknowledge or agree to.

Since the infamous balloon incident, which the US allowed to complete its mission before it was shot down, the tons of electronic equipment on board was never disclosed by the Pentagon, even though almost all of it was recovered.

Meanwhile, balloons or no balloons, the Chinese continue to execute dangerous military missions around Taiwan, sending bombers and fighter jets and drones and a host of other military hardware. 

Blinken's response to the Chinese military threats was just to ignore them.  "We don't support Taiwan's independence," Blinken told the Chinese. Did Blinken demand that the threats to Taiwan cease and that China only follow a peaceful approach to negotiations with Taiwan?  Not at all, it seems.  He let the festering situation continue to fester and grow more dangerous.  Even while he was in China, military pressure on Taiwan continued.

The one thing Blinken was supposed to get out of his trip, a renewal of Pentagon to the People’s Liberation Army dialogue, did not happen.

Taiwan is extremely important to the United States for three reasons.  The first is Taiwan is a democratic country which operates under a rule of law approach, something completely absent in China.  Abandoning Taiwan, where Blinken seemed to be heading, is not supportive of liberal values or democracy, in fact the contrary.  Democratic countries in the region are watching US behavior toward Taiwan following the mantra, "there but for the grace of God go we."

The second is that Taiwan is strategically important.  Its major presence in the middle of what is called the First Island Chain is how the US and its Asian allies and friends can contain Chinese expansion.  Lose Taiwan, and China has command of the seas and threaten US bases in Okinawa and Japan, and likewise enhances Chinese territorial claims over the southern Ryukyu islands including Okinawa.  If we lose Taiwan we almost certainly lose those bases.

The third is economic.  Taiwan is sitting on a technological gold mine of increasing importance in global competitions. The big prize is Taiwan Semiconductor that today produces highly sophisticated semiconductors, including high end artificial intelligence chips needed by industry and by the military.  

Blinken came to China while China's economy is a disaster zone, thanks partly to the pandemic, but also due to huge structural mistakes made by Xi and his compatriots.  When you see modern, new buildings and residences being torn down, you know something is deeply wrong with the economy.  China's infrastructure also is in trouble, because China is running out of money.  China's leaders know they face major problems in a country that could easily fly out of control.  That's why numerous Chinese government officials have come to the US to talk to US banking and Wall Street specialists to see if they can get help to recover.

Wouldn't it have made sense to play that card and tell China that we can help them, but at a price and certainly not for free?  But Blinken did nothing of the sort.  He acted like he had no cards and he was a schoolboy deeply apologetic for whatever it is that schoolboys apologize for, sometimes.

So the Blinken trip accomplished nothing, except to send a signal to China to ignore the US government and go straight to the bankers and industrialists for help with their "problem."

Perhaps the worst part of this debacle is the message it sends to allies and friends in the region, not to mention Taiwan.  When a US Secretary of State cannot negotiate and use the considerable leverage he has, where does that leave the region that is starting to fear China?  Indeed, why should we forgive China for threatening Taiwan, building bases on Cuba, and sending high tech balloons over our strategic missile bases?